I thought about doing something glib, but I ended up just breaking the teams into high, medium, and low probability of a coaching change, with teams listed alphabetically within each group. Obviously, I don't expect a change for any teams not named.
High
Chicago -- Jim Trestman and his staff have lost the locker room. The only suspense is whether GM Phil Emery also gets pink-slipped -- he has made some good moves, but the Cutler signing is the sort of bad deal that gets GMs fired.
NY Jets -- Rex Ryan might be an NFL head coach again next year, but it won't be for the Jets. GM John Idzik should be sacked too.
Oakland -- Tony Sparano hasn't done enough to shake the "interim" tag. They'll do a full search and bring in someone else.
San Francisco -- The 49ers were unhappy with Harbaugh a year ago and considered shipping him to Cleveland for compensation; the Niners' disappointing season surely hasn't made management more fond of Harbaugh. He's not likely to be fired, but he'll either bolt for Michigan, or a deal will be worked out where he's "traded" to his next team in exchange for nominal compensation.
Medium
Atlanta -- Mike Smith was on the hot seat last season, and the Falcons didn't improve. He only avoids the "high" list because the Falcons have a fighting chance to win their division, which would surely save Smith's job.
Jacksonville -- GM David Caldwell has a mandate from ownership to take the long view, and he's smart enough to know last year's 4-12 team was worse than its record, but he has to be disappointed by the lack of progress this season. This one's a coin flip; my gut says Bradley is out, but the conventional wisdom is he'll get another year.
Miami -- The general rule is that a coach who misses the playoffs in his first three seasons doesn't get a chance to coach a fourth. My gut says Philbin will beat the odds -- for him to survive last year's debacle, ownership must have been very high on him, and he didn't do anything this year that I would think would make them do a complete 180. But it's worth remembering that the odds are against him, and he's coaching under a GM who didn't hire him.
NY Giants -- I could see one of three things happening: (1) the Maras fire Coughlin (though he might be allowed to "retire"); (2) Coughlin is welcome to stay, but realizes he won't leave on his own terms if he presides over another losing season and doesn't see a quick fix in the works, so he retires; or (3) the club decides to move on from Eli Manning this winter, and Coughlin gracefully accepts a front-office job rather than presiding over a rebuilding job he won't coach for long enough to see through. I don't think any of these are particularly likely, but the cumulative odds of one of the three happening are something like 50/50.
Washington -- I debated putting Gruden on the "high" list, but he's got a big contract, plus Dan Snyder's knows that he's going to struggle to get a highly qualified head coach if he fires his current guy after a single season. I still think Gruden is gone.
Low
Dallas -- Jason Garrett is in the last year of his contract. Jerry Jones could do something mercurial, or Garrett could parlay his successful season into a head coaching gig with an owner who isn't crazy.
St. Louis -- Like Philbin, Jeff Fisher has missed the playoffs in each of his first three seasons. Unlike Philbin, Fisher coached in the Super Bowl at his last gig, and has presided this year over easily the NFL's worst quarterback situation. Given what he had to work with, and the strength of the Rams' schedule, 6-8 is not bad at all. I'd be surprised if Fisher is fired.
Tampa Bay -- They are still paying Greg Schiano, so I don't see them dumping Lovie Smith after one season, but the Bucs' terrible performance makes it not entirely out of the question -- especially if ownership believes, as I do, that Smith erred badly by not benching Josh McCown in favor of Mike Glennon, who has more talent than McCown and is young enough to have upside.
Tennessee -- Like the Bucs, the Titans have a first-year coach (Ken Whisenhunt) who wasn't given much to work with and fielded a horrible team. I think Whisenhunt has done a better job than Smith, but when your team is 2-13, a "coaches on the hot seat" list is incomplete without your name on it.
High
Chicago -- Jim Trestman and his staff have lost the locker room. The only suspense is whether GM Phil Emery also gets pink-slipped -- he has made some good moves, but the Cutler signing is the sort of bad deal that gets GMs fired.
NY Jets -- Rex Ryan might be an NFL head coach again next year, but it won't be for the Jets. GM John Idzik should be sacked too.
Oakland -- Tony Sparano hasn't done enough to shake the "interim" tag. They'll do a full search and bring in someone else.
San Francisco -- The 49ers were unhappy with Harbaugh a year ago and considered shipping him to Cleveland for compensation; the Niners' disappointing season surely hasn't made management more fond of Harbaugh. He's not likely to be fired, but he'll either bolt for Michigan, or a deal will be worked out where he's "traded" to his next team in exchange for nominal compensation.
Medium
Atlanta -- Mike Smith was on the hot seat last season, and the Falcons didn't improve. He only avoids the "high" list because the Falcons have a fighting chance to win their division, which would surely save Smith's job.
Jacksonville -- GM David Caldwell has a mandate from ownership to take the long view, and he's smart enough to know last year's 4-12 team was worse than its record, but he has to be disappointed by the lack of progress this season. This one's a coin flip; my gut says Bradley is out, but the conventional wisdom is he'll get another year.
Miami -- The general rule is that a coach who misses the playoffs in his first three seasons doesn't get a chance to coach a fourth. My gut says Philbin will beat the odds -- for him to survive last year's debacle, ownership must have been very high on him, and he didn't do anything this year that I would think would make them do a complete 180. But it's worth remembering that the odds are against him, and he's coaching under a GM who didn't hire him.
NY Giants -- I could see one of three things happening: (1) the Maras fire Coughlin (though he might be allowed to "retire"); (2) Coughlin is welcome to stay, but realizes he won't leave on his own terms if he presides over another losing season and doesn't see a quick fix in the works, so he retires; or (3) the club decides to move on from Eli Manning this winter, and Coughlin gracefully accepts a front-office job rather than presiding over a rebuilding job he won't coach for long enough to see through. I don't think any of these are particularly likely, but the cumulative odds of one of the three happening are something like 50/50.
Washington -- I debated putting Gruden on the "high" list, but he's got a big contract, plus Dan Snyder's knows that he's going to struggle to get a highly qualified head coach if he fires his current guy after a single season. I still think Gruden is gone.
Low
Dallas -- Jason Garrett is in the last year of his contract. Jerry Jones could do something mercurial, or Garrett could parlay his successful season into a head coaching gig with an owner who isn't crazy.
St. Louis -- Like Philbin, Jeff Fisher has missed the playoffs in each of his first three seasons. Unlike Philbin, Fisher coached in the Super Bowl at his last gig, and has presided this year over easily the NFL's worst quarterback situation. Given what he had to work with, and the strength of the Rams' schedule, 6-8 is not bad at all. I'd be surprised if Fisher is fired.
Tampa Bay -- They are still paying Greg Schiano, so I don't see them dumping Lovie Smith after one season, but the Bucs' terrible performance makes it not entirely out of the question -- especially if ownership believes, as I do, that Smith erred badly by not benching Josh McCown in favor of Mike Glennon, who has more talent than McCown and is young enough to have upside.
Tennessee -- Like the Bucs, the Titans have a first-year coach (Ken Whisenhunt) who wasn't given much to work with and fielded a horrible team. I think Whisenhunt has done a better job than Smith, but when your team is 2-13, a "coaches on the hot seat" list is incomplete without your name on it.
