2014 Michigan Football: Dammit Jim, we need a Harbaugh. And a miracle worker.

bowiac

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
It seems we follow Ohio State's example, as much as we profess to dislike that school down south. Our greatest coach cut his teeth as an assistant to Woody Hayes. After the Buckeyes found enormous success with Youngstown State's Jim Tressel, we went out and found a similar guy in Brady Hoke. And now the Buckeyes are winning with Urban Meyer, so it appears we'll settle for nothing less than buying the guy we want who has similar experience.
Brady Hoke had a career record of 47-50 before coming to Michigan, having made two bowl games in eight years.
Jim Tressel was 135-57-2, with four D-II National Titles.
 
Records aren't the end all be-all, but we did not find a "similar guy". 
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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I could have articulated the connection better. Hoke did some good rebuilding work with the mid-majors. The stronger connection is that he both he and Tressel were former assistants at their respective schools, had strong ties to the area, and this was their debut as major college head coaches.
 

Granite Sox

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I would be very happy with Jim. I LOVE the fact that Patterson is a MAXIMIZER of talent, but I have no idea if he could recruit (just don't know). Mullen I'm a little gunshy about because, even though it's the vaunted SEC, he hasn't exactly sustained excellence. Miles develops big, tough teams, but he's an offensive troglodyte. And he's a bit older.

Jim and Patterson would be my preferences from your list. Jim wouldn't be a lifer, but he would right the ship quickly and build a great foundation.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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This offense is not capable of anything. Gardner can't hit open receivers, his decision-making is getting worse and teams are going to stack the box. And they can't even block for field goal attempts.

I remember about 35 years ago Illinois played Northwestern in a season-opener back when they were the co-doormats every year for a while. Some local scribe wrote that it wasn't even worth previewing the game because neither team was capable of winning. The game ended 0-0.

If this one ends up in overtime, they may need a mercy rule for the crowd.
 

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Old Fart Tree said:
This is literally one of the worst football games I have ever watched.
It's what I imagine football was like in 1905 , all they needed were the leather helmets
 

WayBackVazquez

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Maryland has beaten every bad team they've played this year. If the game was played next week, we'd be 2-3 point dogs (and I personally think that's too low). At home. Against Maryland.
 
But because they'll get stomped by MSU before they play us, this game will probably be a pick 'em. Great betting opportunity to bet on the Terps, IMO.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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I think we'll be favored against Maryland, but our offense is 2008-level bad right now.

These are Michigan's rankings amongst the 128 FBS teams:

PPG: 20.7 (110th)
Rushes: 34.4 (100th)
Rushing Yards: 154.5 (78th)
Yards per Carry: 4.49 (54th)
Completions: 15.1 (107th)
Pass Attempts: 26.7 (110th)
Completion Percentage: 56.6 (84th)
Passing Yards: 168.1 (116th)
Yards per Catch: 11.13 (97th)
Yards per Attempt: 6.30 (100th)
Total Yards: 322.6 (118th)
Yards per Play: 5.28 (85th)

Turnover Margin: -13 (124th)

Defense

PPG: 20.4 (19th)
Rushes: 36.6 (44th)
Rushing Yards: 103.2 (9th)
Yards per Carry: 2.82 (5th)
Pass Completions: 17.7 (42nd)
Pass Attempts: 29.5 (24th)
Completion Percentage: 60.0 (83rd)
Passing Yards: 197.6 (25th)
Yards per Attempt: 6.70 (45th)
Total Yards: 300.8 (7th)
Yards per Play: 4.55 (11th)

Given the pressure our three-and-out offense puts on the defense, these are good results. And Michigan has played the toughest schedule in the conference. So it hasn't been all-bad this season, just mostly bad.
 

TomTerrific

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Old Fart Tree said:
This is literally one of the worst football games I have ever watched.
 
I found it quite entertaining from the stands (it's Parents' Weekend here at Northwestern), but then again I was:
 
a) rooting for NU, and
b) had pretty low expectations, which were fulfilled.
 
Michigan totally dominated the O and D-lines, but even that wasn't enough to save them if not for the punt-return fumble and the fact that both of NU's kickers just totally suck. Given the difference in talent on both sides of the ball, I can see why UofM fans are calling for Hokes' head--just a totally uninspiring team.
 
Too bad he'll be replaced by someone better next year--this was about the best chance Northwestern will have for a victory for the foreseeable future.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
Given the pressure our three-and-out offense puts on the defense, these are good results. And Michigan has played the toughest schedule in the conference. So it hasn't been all-bad this season, just mostly bad.
Where do you get the idea Michigan has played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten thus far? That's not even close to true.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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WayBackVazquez said:
Where do you get the idea Michigan has played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten thus far? That's not even close to true.
 

Analyzing the schedule. Name a team that has a tougher schedule, and we'll go game-by-game if you like.

As an aside, I rank Michigan's schedule as 30th in the country. It's not like they're going against the SEC West.
 

Granite Sox

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I hesitate to make the comparison (due to futility), but when you watch tOSU play, you realize how little speed Michigan possesses. It would be one thing if Michigan played with strength, but they also play soft and slow on offense against better teams. This is a slow, plodding offense with no above average game speed at any position (even Gardner has been a shell of his non-injury self). The RBs? Slow. The WRs? Slow.

Watching tOSU RBs and WRs blow by a good MSU defense on runs and passing plays was impressive, and created a stark contrast in my mind. They are going to humiliate Michigan.

In summary re the offense, when you have a QB who makes poor decisions with the ball, relatively slow skill players, and a line that is still inconsistent and gets pushed around by good teams, this is the result.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
  
Analyzing the schedule. Name a team that has a tougher schedule, and we'll go game-by-game if you like.
As an aside, I rank Michigan's schedule as 30th in the country. It's not like they're going against the SEC West.
Well, the obvious answer is Purdue. I'm not going to get into a debate about the merits of another of your spreadsheets with you, but if you can point to a single one of these systems that ranks Michigan's schedule higher than Purdue's I'd love to know which one it is: http://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Oh, humor me, joyless one. And then maybe we can trade you to Purdue for some used athletic tape or something.

I'm sure there's at least one up there that uses opponent rankings and factors in home/road rather than the standard composite winning percentage. I found one in a quick look, forgot which. Purdue's schedule is decent. Some would consider their game against Notre Dame a road game. I rated it neutral because it was in Indy and Purdue had a larger allotment of tickets than for a normal road game.

As far as top 25 teams... Purdue plays 2 at home, 1 on the road, 1 neutral. Michigan plays 3 on the road, including the only top ten team either team plays. For 26-50, Purdue plays 1 at home, 1 on the road. Michigan plays 3 at home.

That's a very cursory and quick look, but I think the argument can be made - and in my system it is made that way since analysis shows road games are 30% tougher than home games (this would require one of my spreadsheets to show you, and frankly, I doubt you'd care - your sole goal on SoSH is to shit all over everyone at any opportunity).
 

WayBackVazquez

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Look, I know you're an expert in just about everything. But this seems like the kind of thing that could do with a qualifier of "in my opinion," or more accurately, "according to my arbitrary and proprietary spreadsheet that is contrary to every respected computer system and the straight-face test," rather than you just stating it like it's a self-evident truth.

Something like, "according to Sagarin (which of course takes into account home/road), Michigan has had the seventh toughest schedule in the Big Ten, but not to worry, only Chemistry Scmemistry's special sauce recognizes the true tests that are Appy State and New Jersey at night."

Also, you said Michigan "has played" the toughest schedule. If you meant "will play," you should just apologize for your misstatement and get back to your reruns of Two and A Half Men.
 

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WayBackVazquez said:
Where do you get the idea Michigan has played the toughest schedule in the Big Ten thus far? That's not even close to true.
WayBackVazquez said:
Look, I know you're an expert in just about everything. But this seems like the kind of thing that could do with a qualifier of "in my opinion," or more accurately, "according to my arbitrary and proprietary spreadsheet that is contrary to every respected computer system and the straight-face test," rather than you just stating it like it's a self-evident truth.
You should take your own advice.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Domer said:
You should take your own advice.
But that Michigan's schedule has not been close to toughest in the league is not contrary to every respected computer system and the straight-face test. The median ranking is probably sixth or seventh.

Admittedly, it might have been a little better before Notre Dame got depantsed yesterday.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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I think I see the issue. Some use composite record, which doesn't factor in home/road. Others use ranking and an adjustment for home/road. I made a quick check of my schedule strength stuff and used the full-season column rather than the year-to-date column. Purdue has played a tougher schedule to date (22nd versus 37th) and Michigan will wind up with the 30th because of the OSU road game and Purdue the 47th, finishing with Northwestern and Indiana. So my initial comment was incorrect. I'd call it fourth-best in the conference to date (yes, Notre Dame dropped this week, but it wouldn't have been much different since Purdue also played them). Of course, Michigan's defensive rankings will fall considerably after Ohio State. So the sky falls further.

So WBV has a point, but he's also incorrect (it isn't that far off, while not the best so far), and, of course, he's an ass on a day-by-day basis (I have another spreadsheet that proves this without any doubt, and this one doesn't include Notre Dame).
 

twibnotes

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I hesitate to make the comparison (due to futility), but when you watch tOSU play, you realize how little speed Michigan possesses. It would be one thing if Michigan played with strength, but they also play soft and slow on offense against better teams. This is a slow, plodding offense with no above average game speed at any position (even Gardner has been a shell of his non-injury self). The RBs? Slow. The WRs? Slow.

Watching tOSU RBs and WRs blow by a good MSU defense on runs and passing plays was impressive, and created a stark contrast in my mind. They are going to humiliate Michigan.

In summary re the offense, when you have a QB who makes poor decisions with the ball, relatively slow skill players, and a line that is still inconsistent and gets pushed around by good teams, this is the result.
Michigan recruits from a lot of the same pools as tOSU. Coaching is a big factor here. You play a lot faster when you know where you are going.
 

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Without even looking at any numbers or rankings I find it hard to believe that a team in the the B1G west could have the toughest schedule , meaning they automatically miss playing both Ohio st and Michigan st. In Michigan's sake both on the road
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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It's the way the rotations worked this year. Wisconsin, Nebraska and Minnesota have yet to play each other. So the other four in the west will all drop considerably.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Dgilpin said:
Without even looking at any numbers or rankings I find it hard to believe that a team in the the B1G west could have the toughest schedule , meaning they automatically miss playing both Ohio st and Michigan st. In Michigan's sake both on the road
They don't automatically miss playing both those teams. That's not how the schedule works.
 

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WayBackVazquez said:
They don't automatically miss playing both those teams. That's not how the schedule works.
I understand that I should have clarified , but Purdue does .
 

WayBackVazquez

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Dgilpin said:
I understand that I should have clarified , but Purdue does .
 
Yes, but several teams in the West play two of the three of OSU, MSU and Nebraska. I guess you can just "LOL Nebraska," but both polls and the great majority of computers have Nebraska above MSU currently, and I expect the selection committee will, too.
 
The only team in the East that plays all three is Rutgers. Sagarin has them rated as sixth toughest in the league thus far, but the combined record of their OOC opponents is 13-25 including an FCS, and they haven't played MSU yet.
 

bowiac

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Not to wade too deep into this, but SRS, which is basically a transparent version of Sagarin's ratings, and takes into account strength of schedule, margin of victory, and home field, puts Michigan's schedule 5th, well behind Purdue
 
I expect Michigan to pass Purdue by year's end however. Michigan is going to play Ohio State (+16.66) and Maryland (+3.7), which will move Michigan's average opponent to ~+2.98. Purdue meanwhile plays Northwestern (-0.56) and Indiana (-5.72), which should drop them to ~+2.37.
 

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During a recent presser, when Hoke was defending himself against the charge of not developing his talent, he cited Clark as THE guy who was going to get drafted.

From potential 4th-5th rounder to UDFA. Very costly in a number of ways.

Chump.
 

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WayBackVazquez said:
Maryland has beaten every bad team they've played this year. If the game was played next week, we'd be 2-3 point dogs (and I personally think that's too low). At home. Against Maryland.
 
But because they'll get stomped by MSU before they play us, this game will probably be a pick 'em. Great betting opportunity to bet on the Terps, IMO.
Michigan -4.5
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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The Ann Arbor News account reads a lot like a bad movie script, complete with children running around chanting that Frank was killing their sister, but it doesn't sound like Clark should play another down in Ann Arbor.

"I didn't do s--- to her. I didn't touch that woman. She is a woman. ... I don't know what they do, what they go through, I don't know what she is going through. I know she is going through some crazy fits, and she may be pregnant."
Obviously not a women's studies major at Michigan.

(Editing) He was just dismissed from the program.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Got the annual PSD shakedown email today. Bold.

But, exciting news: there will be no per game ticket increase next season.
 

twibnotes

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I was there - what a depressing scene. I've never seen so few people at the big house. The announced attendance was total BS.

Was sad to see Hoke run down the tunnel at the end of the game - his face revealed that he knows his fate.

Looking forward to turning the page. Next coaching hire is obviously a massive one.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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Hopefully, if there are discussions with potential replacements, we won't know about them. Remember how badly the Les Miles approach was handled? No need to start the circus until it's ready to perform. I think it's obvious that Hoke is gone.
 

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Hackett has a meeting scheduled with Hoke tomorrow prior to the team meeting (3pm?); Hackett will provide Hoke with his job status during this meeting.
 
We should know one way or the other by dinner time tomorrow.
 

sachmoney

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I doubt Hoke will be in the new regime. I still like the guy, believe it or not, but when you fail as a head coach, you usually don't get to hang around. I'm sure you already know that.
 
I'm relieved we're getting the decision tomorrow. Hopefully, it's not in the middle of the night like Brandon's press release after the Morris incident.
 

Chemistry Schmemistry

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It's unusual, but if it were possible, Hoke is the type of coach who could pull it off and would be accepted by the community. Just too many people who have great things to say about him, and he would have to build his resume back up from the minors if he wanted another head coaching opportunity. One thing I would like to see, though, is an end to those stupid legacy jerseys. Devin Gardner may be a great person, but he is not Tom Harmon behind center. And Devin Funchess turned into the invisible man when he donned #1 (not that this was a legacy jersey - I just think of it as Anthony Carter's).
 

sachmoney

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The problem for Hoke is that he hasn't been a DC since 81-82 when he was the DC at a high school. He's been a position coach and a head coach for all of his college football career. If he doesn't get a HC offer anywhere else, he's going to have to be DL or may be Associate/Assistant HC. More likely, I see him sitting out a year. Though, I could see a Big Ten school picking him up because he is a darn good recruiter that knows the Midwest.
 

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Chemistry Schmemistry said:
I hope there's room for Hoke in the new regime. He's a good coach, but he shouldn't be running the show.
 
I don't even know how to respond to this other to ask if you can think of a single example where a head coach at a major college program has been replaced but stays on as a coordinator/position coach?
 

Zososoxfan

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Average Reds said:
 
I don't even know how to respond to this other to ask if you can think of a single example where a head coach at a major college program has been replaced but stays on as a coordinator/position coach?
 
This happened with Luke Fickell at OSU. Granted, Fickell was an interim head coach, but I don't think that disqualifies BH from staying on. It really comes down to whether BH would rather be a HC somewhere else, or stay on at UM. I don't THINK he stays on at UM, but I would love to keep his recruiting ability somehow. I just don't think it's likely or realistic.
 
I asked this in the past, but how would people around here rank the realistic options? I've read there's some interest from the fan base in coordinators, Tom Herman from OSU for one, but I don't share that interest. I want a HC from Power 5 school with a proven track record. I may be wearing the maize-and-blue tinted glasses, but I feel like UM should be able to land Harbaugh, Miles, Mullen, Graham, or Patterson, and I'm just not sure how I would rank those. For the sake of argument, I'd go with:
 
Harbaugh - his work with QBs, competitive spirit, connections to UM, and attention to detail make him the #1 choice.
Patterson - I don't think he's leaving TCU, but if we could somehow pry him away, I don't think he would ever leave UM. Has been a beast at TCU and is getting it done at a Power 5 conference this year.
Graham - Innovator who knows what he's doing and has ASU near the top of a competitive Pac10. I think he would use UM as a stepping stone, but that would mean he's winning, so yeah.
Miles - I would not be upset if we landed Les. I think he would provide stability and success (I'm thinking he would win 7-9 games for 4-5 years) and just get us out of the mud.
Mullen - I'm not sold on his track record. He has done decently in a tough SEC West, but has won 8 or more games 3 times (including this year) out of 6 years.
 

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Zososoxfan said:
 
This happened with Luke Fickell at OSU. Granted, Fickell was an interim head coach, but I don't think that disqualifies BH from staying on. It really comes down to whether BH would rather be a HC somewhere else, or stay on at UM. I don't THINK he stays on at UM, but I would love to keep his recruiting ability somehow. I just don't think it's likely or realistic.
 
 
Like comparing apples to Minivans.
 
Brady Hoke is not an assistant who was elevated for a few games while the AD decides who the head coach will be.  He's been a head coach for 13 seasons.  If he's removed as head coach, he's not staying on in any capacity. 
 
Frankly, I'm shocked anyone would think it's a good idea.