2014 Horse Racing and Triple Crown Thread

[Titoschew]

Post positions and morning line are out.  Initial thoughts:
 
-nice price and draw for Intense Holiday (12-1 and 16, respectively)
-Candy Boy intriguing at 20-1 with Stevens up from 18
-Wicked Strong with tough draw at stall 20, but solid at 8-1
-Cal Chrome 5/2 morning line fave from stall 5, not great with speed inside and outside of him, figure he'll be hammered a notch or two lower
-Hoppertunity with Mike Smith 6-1 from the 11, definitely a wise guy horse this week, morning line reflects as such
-Calvin Borel with Ride on Curlin breaking from 19 will have some work to cut over to the rail
 

 

[mabrowndog]

Post positions and morning line are out.  Initial thoughts:
 
-nice price and draw for Intense Holiday (12-1 and 16, respectively)
-Candy Boy intriguing at 20-1 with Stevens up from 18
-Wicked Strong with tough draw at stall 20, but solid at 8-1
-Cal Chrome 5/2 morning line fave from stall 5, not great with speed inside and outside of him, figure he'll be hammered a notch or two lower
-Hoppertunity with Mike Smith 6-1 from the 11, definitely a wise guy horse this week, morning line reflects as such
-Calvin Borel with Ride on Curlin breaking from 19 will have some work to cut over to the rail

 
Nice breakdown, especially on Chrome. Have to consider that he hasn't had any kickback flung in his face during any of his recent wins. If his neighbors break out ahead of him, which seems likely with Espinoza on the mount preferring to sit back and surge late, it'll be interesting to see if he'll have any issues dealing with it. That, and the obvious prospect of getting squeezed to the rail and slowed by the pack, is really the only challenge I can see provided he's able to run a physically free race. I just don't see any other horse beating him.
 
That's a shitload of solid closers in the second gate (posts 16-20).

 

[Titoschew]

Marty McGee ‏@DRFMcGee  23m
Multiple reports saying Hoppertunity, the 2nd M/L choice at 6-1, is SCR from #KyDerby 140. Tough deal for Baffert. Pablo Del Monte in race.

 

[Dan Murfman]

He's out. Just went to the http://kentuckyderby.com and his number is down.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

Really like Vicar's in Trouble and Wicked Strong.  Vicar's is sharp coming out of the gate and crushed the Louisiana Derby.  History on the rail doesn't favor the colt though.

 

[Dehere]

What a bummer about Hoppertunity. I just heard from a former high-level rider yesterday who is at Churchill this week and said he hated the way Hoppertunity was moving on the track in training and that he thought the horse was a complete toss-out for this race. Thought I was going to be able to play against the second choice here.

 

[DanoooME]

 
Nice breakdown, especially on Chrome. Have to consider that he hasn't had any kickback flung in his face during any of his recent wins. If his neighbors break out ahead of him, which seems likely with Espinoza on the mount preferring to sit back and surge late, it'll be interesting to see if he'll have any issues dealing with it. That, and the obvious prospect of getting squeezed to the rail and slowed by the pack, is really the only challenge I can see provided he's able to run a physically free race. I just don't see any other horse beating him.
 
That's a shitload of solid closers in the second gate (posts 16-20).

 
Yeah, this is going to be an interesting race if Chrome gets shuffled back to the back of the pack (likely) and none of the other closers go for the lead (which is very likely).  Then it comes down to who can find a line through all of the traffic.  Jockeys may have to make earlier than normal moves to get free.

 

[visalia oak]

TVG is offering 4-1 on Chrome on the first $25 bet. You have to make the bet between 12 & 1 on Friday.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

It's an absolutely gorgeous day here at Churchill Downs for Oaks Day.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Please tell me General A Rod is named for our favorite Yankee

 

[Titoschew]

Please tell me General A Rod is named for our favorite Yankee

 
He's not.
 
Also, with Hoppertunity out, everyone in stalls 1-10 shifts out one spot, so the dreaded rail is no longer occupied and Vicar's in Trouble will go from the 2 hole and so on.

 

[Greg29fan]

Always good to see a classy fella like Steve Asmussen win a nationally-televised race

 

[mabrowndog]

It's an absolutely gorgeous day here at Churchill Downs for Oaks Day.

 
Yeah, we're not jealous. Like, at all.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Haven't done a ton of handicapping for the race yet, but I've been listening to the pundits on satellite radio for most of the week.  I'm really surprised how down on Chrome everyone seems to be.  I can't tell if everyone just wants to avoid betting the favorite, but nothing I've seen from that horse would give me pause to throw my money behind him.  I don't think he got a great post, and he'll certainly have some work to do, but if he goes to 4-1, I'll pound the shit out of it.  I still like him at 5-2.
 
From what I'm hearing, tons of folks seem to be in love with Intense Holiday.  The other two horses that I keep hearing referenced are Medal Count and Candy Boy.  For my exotics, I don't know how you ignore Samraat and Danza, and I'm definitely throwing a flier out there on We Miss Artie.  It's definitely a tough race to call, and I could see 5-10 horses winning it in the end.  But, I still feel like if Chrome runs the race he ran at the San Felipe, the Triple Crown talk will be in full throat.  That's still the most impressive race I've seen all year, by a long shot.
 
Nice to see Untapable take care of business today.  That's a damn good female.  Lot of comparisons today to Rachel Alexandra, and I think they are pretty spot on.
 
Everyone think Wise Dan takes care of business in the Woodford?  I hope people recognize just what an all time great that horse has been.  Two time Eclipse horse of the year, 20 wins in 28 races, 6.5million in purses...Such an awesome horse, and last I checked going off at even money tomorrow?  I think there is 6 straight grade 1 stakes races tomorrow.  Anyone know if TVG or anywhere else carries the whole card live on television?

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I should have also mentioned one other horse I'm VERY interested in is Wildcat Red.  Just comparing straight race times among the horses, Wildcat Red seems to be the closest of all of them with California Chrome, particularly if you go two back to his win at the Fountain of Youth, where he ran 1 1/16ths in 1:41.85.  Most of the other stakes winners at this distance were running around 1:43.50.  Chrome ran the San Felipe in 1:40.59.  At 1:1/8th, you see most winners right around 1:50.00, whereas Chrome stretched out to that distance in the Santa Anita and ran it in 1:47.52.  I have no idea if Santa Anita is just a lot faster track than all of these others, but based solely on race times, and assuming he can handle the extra 8th at the Derby (and I've seen nothing to indicate that he can't), I don't know how you can bet against Chrome confidently.  But, I like Wildcat Red as my upset pick along with We Miss Artie.

 

[Dan Murfman]

  I think there is 6 straight grade 1 stakes races tomorrow.  Anyone know if TVG or anywhere else carries the whole card live on television?

NBC SN starts coverage at noon today so they'll miss the first 3 races but should be on in time for the 4th.

 

[Dehere]

A look at the Timeform figs gives me some pause. They really grade the Wood highly. Wicked Strong is their top choice and they give Samraat a bigger shot then you would infer from the Beyer figures. I really like Samraat's grit - he's tough and honest - but I was leaning toward him being too slow for this spot. Now I'm not sure.

Still planning to take the short price on CC in the win pool for a good sized play. The 3-1 he's at right now seems fair to me and I just hope it holds.

Good luck.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Thanks Murf.  Just got home and am now planted in front of the tv.  Tons of good racing all around the country, and I've got action in a lot of spots.  Couple stakes races at Santa Anita, some good racing at Belmont.  Awesome day.  I'll try and post some of my plays as the day goes on.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Another unbelievably beautiful day here; even better than yesterday.

I hit a nice exacta in the fourth race, and am playing with house money from here out. I think CC will get bet to almost even money. I'm leaning toward riding Rosie's hot hand, and using Vicar as my key horse, even from the rail.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Centre Court loses the Distaff in a mild upset.  Coffee Clique was the pick of a handicapper I was listening to earlier.  I liked a number of that handicapper's same picks later today, so hopefully they stay hot.
 
I don't think anyone beats Judy the Beauty in the next race.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Wow, Midnight Lucky, a Baffert horse, ridden by Rosie, just ran by everyone in the Humana.  Very impressive.  The announcers are talking about how the field is slightly favoring speed.  That race makes me think it's really, really favoring the speed.  Could help Chrome and the other horses that like to go out early in the Derby, including Vicar who has to get out early from the inside post, IMO.

 

[SawxSince67]

Wandered into the local OTB this morning: did California Chrome $10 Win, $10 Place & Wicked Strong, same bets...I have always been around ponies (my grandfather was a jockey...early memories of Rockingham Park and Suffolk Downs), but I am an unsophisticated bettor...Death, I am told Wildcat Red is a nice bet, as well.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Hah.  I threw a couple flier, across the board bets on horses named Greg (my first name).  One in the 1st race at Suffolk, and one on 2nd at Arlington, and both of them won.  Nice way to start the day.  House money is always fun.

 

[Jeff Van GULLY]

The question with Vicar isn't getting out quickly but lasting that extra 8th.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The Beaugay Stakes is the next race at Belmont.  I'm all over the 4, Orion Moon.  He's the favorite now due to some big scratches, but I think he'll still go off at 5/2 or 3/1.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I think Delauney is stealing money at 3/1 in the next at Churchill. Defending champ in the race.  Shocked he's not the favorite.  Morning line had him at 9/1.  Another speed horse.  Let's see if the trend continues.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Did not see Central Banker coming like that.  I believe that's two wins for Nakatani today.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Everyone trying to find someway to bet against Wise Dan; Seek Again, a complete unknown in the US down to 8-1 on the outside is madness.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I fucking love Wise Dan.  I don't even bet him anymore though because it's not worth it at 1/2, and I can just sit back and enjoy his awesomeness.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Belmont about to get underway.  Come on Orion Moon.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Fuck.  Orion got pinned on the rail behind the leader until the very end, finally got some room, but came up short by a neck.  I had him across the board, but that should have been a win.  Orion was the best horse, IMO.  Just a bad trip.

 

[Dan Murfman]

Lovely hat Johnny

 

[Greg29fan]

Wise Dan's greatest win of his career - about 99.9% of horses that pull like that for a quarter of a mile in a grade 1 don't win.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Fuck, I threw a late superfecta box on the race, because I couldn't find anyone I liked over Wise Dan.  I had 50 cents on 1, 5, 7, 9, 10.  I hit it, don't know what it paid yet, but if Wise Dan came in second, I would have killed it.

 

[Titoschew]

Wise Dan's greatest win of his career - about 99.9% of horses that pull like that for a quarter of a mile in a grade 1 don't win.

 
He almost savaged whoever was out in front of him in the first 1/8th of a mile.  Amazing win.

 

[Bozo Texino]

All of this makes me miss Steeplechase weekend in Nashville.
 
Nothing but a bunch of drunk sorority girls wandering around holding their shoes over their shoulders.
 
"TELL ME I'M PRETTY!"

 

[Titoschew]

I'm alive in the pick four to Danza, Cali Chrome, Wicked Strong, Ride on Curlin, Intense Holiday and Candy Boy. 

 

[Bozo Texino]

Strange to me that Affirmed's record is approaching near DiMaggio status.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Awesome Tito.  Love your chances.  Is the Derby the last leg of the pick 4?

 

[RedOctober3829]

https://twitter.com/Nick_Underhill/status/462701199985475584

 

[Deathofthebambino]

I went across the board on Wildcat Red and Chrome, and put together a massive superfecta box on Medal Count, Chrome, Wildcat Red, Samraat, Intense Holiday, and Candy Boy.  I think the winner comes out of there, but I'm a little worried about leaving Danza out.

 

[DJnVa]

10-Wildcat Red
 
19-Ride on Curling
 
3-Uncle Sigh
 
I almost picked Danza because noted handicapper Johhny Weir is leaning that way.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Best horse in the world and not even close.

 

[PseuFighter]

I know zilch about this, but looked like someone was coming on strong at the very end. and if that means anything for a longer track, etc.

 

[axx]

Best horse in the world and not even close.

 
Do you think he has a shot at winning the Triple Crown?

 

[Beomoose]

Never doubt the power of Purp

 

[Beomoose]

 
Do you think he has a shot at winning the Triple Crown?

Little worried that he seemed to run out of gas before the wire, the Belmont is a really long race.

 

[Greg29fan]

It was a really nice performance but I would bet the filly that won the Oaks every day over him if they run her in the Preakness.  I think this is a really weak colt group (2:03 and change over a super fast track is really really slow).

 

[Titoschew]

Awesome Tito.  Love your chances.  Is the Derby the last leg of the pick 4?

 
Indeed, about $800 for the dollar, ain't complaining.  Though, everyone else was paying $1500-$5000.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Congrats Tito.  That's a nice day.
 
I completely disagree that this is a weak group.  The pace was slow, but that's by design based on who is involved in the race and where they start from.  2.03 may not be fast, but it's mostly irrelevant.  If Chrome needed to run 2:01, do people really think he couldn't have?  Espinosa wasn't exactly beating him around the track, and didn't let him run until the top of the stretch, and then let up with about 70 yards to go, just as he has in almost all of his recent races. Untapable is a great, great horse, but betting her over Chrome is crazy talk.  Just look at the times that Chrome has put up in races where he needed to run.  I've talked about it repeatedly in this thread, but go back and look at the splits in the San Felipe.  That race was so outrageously good that I can't believe folks weren't talking about it constantly leading up to this race.  It was all I needed to see to know that he was the pick for the Derby, and it's all anyone should have needed, and Untapable just doesn't have that kind of speed. 
 
Can Chrome win the triple crown?  I can't remember a horse with a better shot in recent memory.  He's just plain dominant.  I think he'll win the Preakness, but with the Belmont, you just never know how they are going to handle the distance until they get there.  There are a bunch of late running 3 year olds out there.  I could see Chrome finding another gear and blowing the field away in the Belmont, but I could also see him lose some legs down the final furlong and get caught.  I'm not betting against him though, that's for damned sure.