2014 Horse Racing and Triple Crown Thread

wade boggs chicken dinner

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WayBackVazquez said:
Probably because I'm still on a high from my week in Kentucky, I finally pulled the trigger on ownership and locked in a piece of Goose Bumps, a 2 year-old filly bought at Ocala. She should debut at Del Mar in a few months, and I'll update with my experience.
 
Congratulations.  Had thought about doing something like this myself; will be interested in hearing how it goes.  Maybe you can start a thread/blog?
 
Good luck.  Hope to see you in the winners' circle a few times.
 

axx

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So apparently CC might not run the Belmont if he can't use his "nasal strips".
 
Not sure if I should post this here or in the PED forum.
 

Greg29fan

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This is a departure from precedent as before he was scratched I'll Have Another was not going to be allowed to wear a nasal strip.
 

Time to Mo Vaughn

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CC's owners did the smart thing, which was to get the media controversy going before asking permission. Pretty much guaranteed that it would be allowed rather than causing the storm afterwards to try and get the decision reversed.
 

Monbo Jumbo

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the other Athens
Dernells Casket n Flagon said:
CC's owners did the smart thing, which was to get the media controversy going before asking permission. Pretty much guaranteed that it would be allowed rather than causing the storm afterwards to try and get the decision reversed.
 
yep
 
money talks 
 

WayBackVazquez

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Greg29fan said:
This is a departure from precedent as before he was scratched I'll Have Another was not going to be allowed to wear a nasal strip.
O'Neill never put in a request to the stewards as CC's connections did.

This is such a non-story.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Greg29fan said:
Not sure what that link was supposed to support. There is no authoritative "they" that told him anything. If you want to use special equipment, you must make a formal request to the stewards.

“You pick your spots when you argue with the refs,” O’Neill said. “I didn’t want there to be an asterisk if we won the Triple Crown. We did not put up a fight. I was not told to put in a request to the stewards or else I would have.”

He was told by whom?
 

WayBackVazquez

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And by the way, the decision is that from here on, all horses will be permitted to wear the strips, bringing the NYRA in line with most of the country. That's not a departure from precedent for a request, it's an across-the-board rule change.
 

Greg29fan

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WayBackVazquez said:
Not sure what that link was supposed to support. There is no authoritative "they" that told him anything. If you want to use special equipment, you must make a formal request to the stewards.

“You pick your spots when you argue with the refs,” O’Neill said. “I didn’t want there to be an asterisk if we won the Triple Crown. We did not put up a fight. I was not told to put in a request to the stewards or else I would have.”

He was told by whom?
 
The stewards in charge said no, they didn't say make a formal request and you might be able to.  It was a blanket no.  
 
“If it’s really going to help the horse that much, to be fair and consistent, we have to regulate it,” Hill said. “That’s always been the issue.”
 

WayBackVazquez

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Okay, feel free to ignore what O'Neill said. It's a vast west coast conspiracy to let a horse wear pieces of tape on his nose.
 

Greg29fan

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He wasn't told to put in a request to the stewards because they (the three stewards in charge, including Mr. Hill quoted above) came out and said it was not going to be permitted period at least a week before the race.  There was no "special request provision" or whatever you want to call it they are using now.  It's not a conspiracy (I agree with it, it should be allowed everywhere) it's a change in the way NYRA is operating with the new people in charge.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Let's assume for a moment that what you think happened, did -- that Doug O'Neill was told in no uncertain terms by all of the stewards that he should not avail himself of his rights to file a formal request for the nasal strips under 4033.8 and appeal any such decision to the racing commission under 4039.5. Because he would certainly be denied. And because by filing a request, presumably, he might:
  • Bring undue, unpleasant attention to the sport and the event;
  • Again, be denied; or perhaps
  • Force our hand into actually permitting the use/changing the rule.
But Doug and I'll Have Another did not formally seek approval, perhaps because:
  • they didn't care about the damned strips that much; and more importantly
  • Doug was already embroiled in a drug scandal that threatened to completely upstage their fantastic horse, and the last thing they needed was another controversy.
On the other hand, CC's connections may be superstitious, don't want to change anything, and more importantly understand they have the leverage. So they decided to force Belmont and the NYRA's hand and actually assert their rights under the gaming commission's rules.
 

Dgilpin

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California Chrome opens at -115 to win the Belmont, close to where he opened with the Preakness. That closed around -170, I would suggest betting on Chrome now before it gets bet up again. The next best odds are Danza and Ride on Curlin at 8-1
 

Greg29fan

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I have no doubt NYRA wanted to make things a little more difficult for O'Neill...his medication problems, the 60 Minutes interview, none of it was good.
 
Contrast that with Sherman who I think played NYRA and the media beautifully.  As soon as he said he wouldn't run the horse or was thinking about it it was a done deal.  This is horse racing, nothing moves fast.  The fact this piece of equipment went from virtually banned to legal in less than 72 hours is probably unprecedented.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Dgilpin, I wish I could have gotten CC at -115 to win the Belmont.  My site right now has him at -300.  I'm actually thinking about throwing a few dollars on Commanding Curve at +400 to win the Belmont.  I think if any horse is going to beat him, it's going to be a late charging horse, and that's Curve's MO.  His run down the stretch at the Derby was beautiful, and if he had more time, like he will in the Belmont, he could get there in the end.  I'm rooting for CC to win the Crown, but I think it's a pretty decent bet to go against the favorite this time around.  I'm completely writing off Curlin and Social Inclusion.  IMO, they had perfect chances to beat CC in the Preakness and couldn't get it done.  No reason to think they'll be able to do it in the Belmont, although of the two, I think Social Inclusion is the better bet.  Besides Curve, if anyone is going to knock off CC, I think it has to be either Danza or Samraat, who along with Curve are rested up after skipping the Preakness.  I'm hearing a lot of chatter about Tonalist, but I haven't seen much of him to give an opinion, so there might be something there.  The rest of the field has been there done that, and I don't see any reason to believe they'll do any differently this time around. 
 

WayBackVazquez

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Deathofthebambino said:
Dgilpin, I wish I could have gotten CC at -115 to win the Belmont.  My site right now has him at -300.  I'm actually thinking about throwing a few dollars on Commanding Curve at +400 to win the Belmont. 
 
Don't do that. You'll almost certainly be able to get better than that betting parimutuel. And my site is giving 9-1 on him right now.
 

Dgilpin

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WayBackVazquez said:
 
Don't do that. You'll almost certainly be able to get better than that betting parimutuel. And my site is giving 9-1 on him right now.
Yeah I have commanding curve at 12-1 , death you should do a little book shopping .
 

Deathofthebambino

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I haven't put anything in yet.  I expect even my site will catch up odds-wise as we get closer to the race.  It's not usually off by this much though.
 

WayBackVazquez

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Happy, though very strange reports from Wise Dan's colic surgery. He appears to be recovering well -- from a surgery where the doctors didn't do anything. They believe when he was propped up on his side and back for surgery, the offending organ magically popped back into its rightful placement.
 

Deathofthebambino

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One of my horses, Twist 'n Bake, breezed today for the first time at Saratoga.  She's just a little over 2 years. 2 months old.  Hopeful that she'll run her first race the meet later this summer.
 

WayBackVazquez

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My filly went a half-mile for the first time yesterday in 48.80. She's still on track to debut at Del Mar this summer.
 

Deathofthebambino

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This race will be won or lost by Chrome in the first half mile to 3/4ths of a mile.  If the times are sub 22.5 splits for the first 2-3 splits, and he stays with the leaders, he will tire out, and I like Commanding Curve to catch him in the stretch if that happens.  If the pace is that fast, and Espinosa keeps him back in the pack, then he will win going away again.
 
If the splits are slow, like they have been for the first two races, and he just sits off the lead, he'll win as easily as he has the first two races.