You can't really "waste" a 6th round draft pick.
You can absolutely waste a 2nd rounder though.
You can absolutely waste a 2nd rounder though.
2014 Draft Game Day 2
- Thread starter SeoulSoxFan
- Start date
Ok, you're saying two arguments, but it seemed to me that you were shifting the goalposts from "they did nothing to potentially help their team this year" to "their overall first two days sucked."Deathofthebambino said:
There's room to like their first round pick and dislike the second. Some people may also think that having a backup investment is worth the insurance of a second round pick, when it comes to the QB position. I'm not sure I really like using a second rounder on it, but if they like the player so much better than the others available, it would make sense. In the end, we're probably talking about using the 2nd round pick on the QB instead of the 3rd. I'm not sure it's really something to be outraged about. It's obvious they were going to draft a QB in the lower-mid rounds.
SMU_Sox said:
I've been getting that feeling too. I wonder if Garoppolo would have been the pick if Kony Ealy or Allen Robinson were still there.
Deathofthebambino said:
Not knowing anything about the Pat's strategy, and while also being completely disappointed by the pick, I'm going with: JG = player that was highest on their board.?.
Mike Loyko @NEPD_Loyko 13m
Looking at my draft board compared to years past, I think 2014 will be the most talented 4th-6th round drafts in a long time.
Mike Loyko @NEPD_Loyko 16m
Belichick's day three track record >>>>> Belichick's Day Two track record. It's not even close.
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Looking at my draft board compared to years past, I think 2014 will be the most talented 4th-6th round drafts in a long time.
Mike Loyko @NEPD_Loyko 16m
Belichick's day three track record >>>>> Belichick's Day Two track record. It's not even close.
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Right but how is it wasted by selecting the player Belichick tags as Brady's heir apparent? That is a huge responsibility. Most fans don't look past the upcoming season while team executives have the responsibility to plan for the future. I'm sure many fans in Green Bay were complaining about wasting a 1st rounder on Aaron Rodgers since he wasn't going to play for the next 4 years anyway.Deathofthebambino said:
Question (paraphrased): "Was the QB selection about taking the best player, finding a successor for Tom, having a backup since Mallett 's contract is up or a combination of those?"
Belichick: (paraphrased) "You said it. We liked the player, we're aware of Mallett's contract, and obviously know Tom's situation. Its smart to have at least 1 quarterback on your team."
Belichick: (paraphrased) "You said it. We liked the player, we're aware of Mallett's contract, and obviously know Tom's situation. Its smart to have at least 1 quarterback on your team."
DrewDawg said:
Anything about the quarterback and not about Belichick, as I've stated several times across several threads.
There may be no right answers, but there are lots of good answers and a metric shit-ton of crappy answers. People have started discussing the actual player in the player specific thread, so I think that's a good place to start.
HomeRunBaker said:
This is a good point and I'll add that the two situations are remarkably similar. The Packers had a 36 year old Brett Favre who'd just finished a very good season. Favre ended up playing in 6 more seasons after that. He was great in 2 of them, but mediocre in the other 4.
The simple fact is that there is absolutely no guarantee that Brady will continue to be as good as he has been all the way up to age 40. Having a solid backup plan isn't a bad idea.
I'll never stop being amazed at Patriots fans getting so worked up over the draft.
This is nearing 2010 levels when half this board was furious the Patriots took McCourty and Gronk rather than Segio Fucking Kindle.
This is nearing 2010 levels when half this board was furious the Patriots took McCourty and Gronk rather than Segio Fucking Kindle.
HRB, aside from Aaron Rodgers, how often does an heir apparent get tagged by a team, sit on the bench for a few years, and then step in and become a top 10-15 QB? It's a nice theory and all, but does it ever actually happen? I don't view this pick any different than I do the Mallett pick, or the Hoyer pick, or any of the other QB's that BB has taken. There is a report that the Pats were going to take Bortles (and I think I read Manziel too) if he fell to them in the first round, so are they really enthralled with JG, or did BB just feel he needed to take a QB this year? He must have also been awfully confident that nobody else saw what he did in Garoppolo, because he let 61 picks go in front of him without moving up to make sure he didn't miss him.
I don't think JG is Brady's heir apparent, and I don't think BB thinks he is either. I think he was the best player on their board, and that's who they draft. I'm saying that I think this was a year that they should have drafted for need, and not for the best player available. I'm a broken record at this point, but they are so damned close to winning another Super Bowl, and they really don't have a lot of holes to fill and they didn't every try to do that today, and to me, that's just really frustrating.
And just to be clear, I like Garoppolo. I like him more than Bridgewater and Manziel (but not as much as Bortles or Carr), and I think he could be a good NFL QB. I just don't think the Pats needed to take him today, with the 60th pick, in this loaded draft. And then to follow that up by trading away their third rounder to move down 12 spots and add a 6th rounder? I don't get it. It's like they just punted on the draft. Maybe they have their eyes on some free agent that we don't know about are trying to save some money on rookie contracts. However they made their decision, I think teams like San Fran and Seattle and even the Jets and Ravens got a lot better today and that Pats didn't, and that kind of blows.
I don't think JG is Brady's heir apparent, and I don't think BB thinks he is either. I think he was the best player on their board, and that's who they draft. I'm saying that I think this was a year that they should have drafted for need, and not for the best player available. I'm a broken record at this point, but they are so damned close to winning another Super Bowl, and they really don't have a lot of holes to fill and they didn't every try to do that today, and to me, that's just really frustrating.
And just to be clear, I like Garoppolo. I like him more than Bridgewater and Manziel (but not as much as Bortles or Carr), and I think he could be a good NFL QB. I just don't think the Pats needed to take him today, with the 60th pick, in this loaded draft. And then to follow that up by trading away their third rounder to move down 12 spots and add a 6th rounder? I don't get it. It's like they just punted on the draft. Maybe they have their eyes on some free agent that we don't know about are trying to save some money on rookie contracts. However they made their decision, I think teams like San Fran and Seattle and even the Jets and Ravens got a lot better today and that Pats didn't, and that kind of blows.
on NE as a broncos fan 2 years ago Elway pulled the same trick and it cost a 2012 SB Game aga SF Because had we drafted a guy like D Marin we might had won Aga Balt in 2012 this was 2 years too soon for a QB i mean 1 more star pass rusher or A Star OL and NE Plays in SB 49 now u open it up and Let Denver Indy Pitt Balt have a shot at 49 too out of the AFC
Meh. How often are 2nd and 3rd round picks impact players in their first year? I think you can question the decisions but the idea that anything that happened today seriously moved the dial on their chances of winning the Super Bowl is dead wrong.
Steve Young, Danny White, Kaepernick wasn't expected to come on so quick......no it doesn't happen often because GM's are on short leashes and sometimes aren't in positions to secure the franchises future since they won't be around to reap the rewards. Every situation above plus Rodgers, were designed by a secure GM.Deathofthebambino said:
I feel that Belichick isn't interested in being painted into a corner like the Jets, Browns, Texans, Raiders, etc where you are forced to not only draft a QB from the current class but also play the kid as a rookie. We're going to have a shit ton of picks tomorrow and historically he's been as or more effective in rounds 4-7 than in Round 2......at least that's how I'm sleeping tonight. He sacrificed a little something now for potentially a lot later.
Exactly right.Devizier said:
All I'm saying is this kid has Belichick QB written all over him. He threw 51 TDs last year to only 9 INT's.......that's some decision making there connecting on 66% of your passes out of 568 with only 9 picks. His arm is solid strong and he's got a quick release and very nice touch. The tools are there to develop and he gets to work under Belichick and Brady to develop them without being thrown into the fire.......you don't get a better situation for a young QB than this.
Available Rd 4:
WR Martavis Bryant 6' 4" 211
Brandon Coleman 6'6" 225
OL Antonio Richardson 6'6" 336
Dakota Dozier 6'4" 313
David Yankey 6'6" 315
DL Daquan Jones 6'4" 322
Caraun Reid 6'2" 302
WR Martavis Bryant 6' 4" 211
Brandon Coleman 6'6" 225
OL Antonio Richardson 6'6" 336
Dakota Dozier 6'4" 313
David Yankey 6'6" 315
DL Daquan Jones 6'4" 322
Caraun Reid 6'2" 302
Steve Young had played in the USFL, and then was the starting QB in Tampa Bay before he went to San Fran. As you noted, Kaep didn't last very long on the bench. I'll give you Danny White though. So, that makes 2 guys in the past 40 years that made it to the NFL via the map being plotted out by dozens (?) of posters in this thread. To say that the idea that JG will be the next Aaron Rodgers and things will work out that way is optimistic at best. Probably closer to wishful thinking.
That said, I don't disagree with you that it's a good situation, he's a BB guy and all of that. But none of that changes my opinion that this draft pick could have been used in much, much better fashion. From where I sit, there are two things that have to happen to have it make any sort of sense. First, there has to be a deal in place for Mallett, and second, they have to be absolutely convinced that JG is the future. I haven't seen any reason to believe that either of those things are a reality, but if he turns out to be the third guy in 40 years to follow the path, I'll eat my words. Happily.
That said, I don't disagree with you that it's a good situation, he's a BB guy and all of that. But none of that changes my opinion that this draft pick could have been used in much, much better fashion. From where I sit, there are two things that have to happen to have it make any sort of sense. First, there has to be a deal in place for Mallett, and second, they have to be absolutely convinced that JG is the future. I haven't seen any reason to believe that either of those things are a reality, but if he turns out to be the third guy in 40 years to follow the path, I'll eat my words. Happily.
I guess this may seem like an overly simplistic way of viewing this, but if anyone was going to attempt to groom a player, isn't BB the guy you trust most to do it? Is there a harder working, more successful, or passionate role model for an heir apparent than Tom Brady?
It's pretty clear from BB's comments tonight about how he would rather be early than late that he believes one of two things (or both?): JG is the guy they wanted all along and in the landscape of the draft this year and going forward he doesn't see anyone with a better makeup being available. Or, that he would rather take the opportunity now to put someone in place to helm the offense who is coached and informed than burn a second round pick, with a risk of flame out when forced to start right away in a transition year. This is also compounded by potentially being handcuffed by the moves of other teams in their selections of QBs in that draft.
I personally don't believe that there will be a better QB prospect, where the Patriots will get good value where they will be picking for the next 2-3 years, where he couldn't make up that difference in coaching and grooming. I also think Bill doesn't even consider trading other needed assets, in terms of valuable draft picks, to move up to get someone they believe is superior in a later draft when they are then forced to find a replacement for Tom. Especially considering an equal need to strengthen a team in transition to support a new QB.
edit: punctuation and grammar.
It's pretty clear from BB's comments tonight about how he would rather be early than late that he believes one of two things (or both?): JG is the guy they wanted all along and in the landscape of the draft this year and going forward he doesn't see anyone with a better makeup being available. Or, that he would rather take the opportunity now to put someone in place to helm the offense who is coached and informed than burn a second round pick, with a risk of flame out when forced to start right away in a transition year. This is also compounded by potentially being handcuffed by the moves of other teams in their selections of QBs in that draft.
I personally don't believe that there will be a better QB prospect, where the Patriots will get good value where they will be picking for the next 2-3 years, where he couldn't make up that difference in coaching and grooming. I also think Bill doesn't even consider trading other needed assets, in terms of valuable draft picks, to move up to get someone they believe is superior in a later draft when they are then forced to find a replacement for Tom. Especially considering an equal need to strengthen a team in transition to support a new QB.
edit: punctuation and grammar.
I can't believe you think this. No wonder you're so worked up. Well, here's the good news: you're wrong! Yes, BB likes to pick the BPA. Why? Because he thinks it's the best thing for his team. On the other hand, he doesn't do it because someone told him it should be a rule that he always follows regardless of situation and team need. He's not a fucking moron, he's a highly intelligent free thinker who puts winning above all. I'm not saying I know he's right or that his decisions are flawless but the logic you laid out is clearly detrimental to the team. He picked JG because he believes it will help the Patriots win football games. It's as simple as that.Deathofthebambino said:
Personally, I had a series of thoughts around two competing emotions.
1) shit BB is seriously planning for the post Brady era
2) yes, BB thinks he'll be around for the PBE!
I wonder what impact the new cost structure for draft picks influences this decision. 20 years ago it may have been more cost effective to sign a veteran free agent as your backup. Now it might be better to draft a rookie. Im on a phone. Can anyone provide some comparisons for veterans versus 2nd round picks?Deathofthebambino said:
axx said:
I sure do not. This a deep draft with solid talent still on the board. The Patriots still need plenty of help for this year coming and can get it today.
Back-up quarterbacks with playing experience are very, very expensive. A guy like Kyle Orton costs roughly 3 million a year; Chad Henne makes 4 million a year; Michael Vick is on a one-year $5 million deal. Hell, Mark Sanchez cost 2.25 million.pappymojo said:
A second round pick costs roughly 500-750k a year.
Economically it really makes a ton of sense to have a non first round pick as a back-up QB.
They have 7 picks today -- three 4s, three 6s and a 7 -- that's a fair amount of ammo.Sportsbstn said:
Totally get and share the angst, but not the condemnation. Neither player taken was an obvious reach. They are just more than average risky for different reasons.
Now if Bill gets "bored" today and doesn't get much out of the currency, we're having a different conversation. But right after deep depth saved a season, I kind of doubt that's going to happen.
30% of the league is undrafted, you could make the argument that NE got more out of its 2013 undrafted free agents than Miami got out of its 2013 draft.dcmissle said:
I bet Bill is thrilled to have this many picks today. He gets to draft his 'priority' free agents.
ShaneTrot said:
True, but the basis of comparison here is flawed. I don't have exact figures, but I'm reasonably certain that while a reasonably small fraction of the league is 1st/2nd/3rd rounders, they have a relatively low wash-out rate, while a higher % of 4-7 and UDFAs invited to camp don't end up making NFL rosters. So - sure, people catch lightening in a bottle every year, and there's a lot of it around, but there's a reason why really talented players get drafted high, and generally stick in the NFL.
dcmissle said:
DC, my point was I do not want the Pats to be trading out of the Jags pick into the 3rd round next year because there is very solid talent still on the board and this is a deep draft from all accounts. Beyond that, the Pats need more help this year and are in the position to get it today. The first 2 selections so far, we will see, but today is an important day. The Pats lack of any real talent at WR still scares me more than any other position and that will be hard to improve here, but other positions can definitely be helped.
There is actually a significant dropoff following Round 1 to where you could make a case the difference between rounds 2-6 isn't nearly as significant as from 1 to 2.mwonow said:
I'd be willing to bet this is even more true in New England where BB tends to take more fliers in the 2nd round than most.
Didn't know where I should post this but I thought it was interesting. Since 06 there have been 14 QB's taken in the second round. I wanted to go back ten years but in 04 and 05 there were none. The names in order are:
Kellen Clemens - 06
Tarvaris Jackson - 06
Kevin Kolb - 07
John Beck - 07
Drew Stanton - 07
Brian Brohm - 08
Chad Henne - 08
Pat White - 09
Jimmy Clausen - 10
Andy Dalton - 11
Colin Kaepernick - 11
Brock Osweiler - 12
Geno Smith - 13
So, that's 2 out of 14 who have done anything in the NFL in Dalton and Kaep. The rest of the list is uninspiring. YMMV, on the relevance but the history isn't favorable.
Kellen Clemens - 06
Tarvaris Jackson - 06
Kevin Kolb - 07
John Beck - 07
Drew Stanton - 07
Brian Brohm - 08
Chad Henne - 08
Pat White - 09
Jimmy Clausen - 10
Andy Dalton - 11
Colin Kaepernick - 11
Brock Osweiler - 12
Geno Smith - 13
So, that's 2 out of 14 who have done anything in the NFL in Dalton and Kaep. The rest of the list is uninspiring. YMMV, on the relevance but the history isn't favorable.
Agree today is very important. They were bold in the first round, conservative in the second, and dealing the third naturally leaves us feeling exposed for 14. If they can get productive players with the two picks they received, and address their several positions of need, people will be feeling better tonight.Sportsbstn said:
I am worried about WR, TE and strengthening both lines.
Yeah, they need to throw picks at the lines. I'm agnostic about what they do beyond that.dcmissle said:
Thank you. Thats what I figured. So from a roster construction perspective it seems that this helps the team regardless of whether or not he sees significant time as a starter if the cost savings is what allows us to sign players like Revis. Of course this doesnt mean that the same savings isnt available in a latter round, but Belichick also wants a backup he can be confortable with.Shelterdog said:
Interesting, but I wonder what the success rate is in other rounds. I'd guess it's higher in the first, but not all that different in rounds 3-7.Eck'sSneakyCheese said:
I'd do it myself, but I'm at lunch with my kid at the moment.
Buster Olney the Lonely said:
I actually did but didn't post. Keep in mind this is since 2000. For the first and second round it's close to 35% for just the first it's around 50%.
Edit : Sorry, for rounds 3-7 the success rate is around 8%. I had it typed out before and forgot to post it.
Trying to remember, what was the original name of the draft? It was something like annual player selection meeting or something. Am i warm?
RedOctober3829 said:
Evaluating players on a narrow criteria like "quarterbacks chosen by any team in the second round over the last ten years" is not particularly informative. Even setting aside issues of small sample size, there are team-specific aspects to consider: offensive styles, player development, and coaching can all confound this type of analysis. In this context, it's worth mentioning in this space that the Patriots have developed three NFL starters (counting Hoyer) at the position during Belichick's tenure. I think it's also worth mentioning that how teams evaluate quarterbacks has clearly changed. So while the Patriots might have found their guys (Hoyer and Cassel) at the back of the draft in the past, they might not be able to do that anymore.
The other main consideration is what shelterdog pointed out: quarterbacks that can play at all are valuable and, relatedly, expensive. Revisiting that list that Eck posted, many of those guys are still in the league, even after their rookie deals were up. Chad Henne has a cap hit of $5.75 million this season, Tarvaris Jackson and Kellen Clemens are earning $1.25 million a piece. Virtually all of those players were capable enough to last their rookie contracts. Given the outside chance that you score a Dalton or Kaepernick (talent-wise, at least), doesn't it make sense to take a chance on a quarterback from time to time? It's not like Mallett is under contract long term.
Look, I was disappointed by the Garoppolo pick when I saw it too, but then I realized that I know fuck-all about what makes a good prospect in the league. And I'm getting the distinct impression that I'm not alone in this boat.
Devizier said:
I agree with your main paragraph in that I wasn't sure how relevant the information was and I also agree that there are a lot of determining factors to how any prospect pans out.
I agree with Shelter also that having a non-first round pick as a backup is economically smart but that doesn't necessarily mean spending a second rounder on a backup is a good idea either.