2014 Draft Game Day 1

SeoulSoxFan

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Here we go folks! Draft day is here. Let's get ready to rumble trade-down!!
 
NO SPOILERS
 
Please avoid announcing picks before they're announced on TV. 
 

DJnVa

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Apparently players at the draft will get their own walk-up music as they head to the stage.
 

ivanvamp

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That's what'll happen.  Pats will trade down into the early second round and will still get a very good player there, plus will add picks later in this draft or in 2015 (or both).  
 
For example, I could see Houston taking Clowney at #1, then Jacksonville taking Watkins at #3.  Both teams still need a QB, and by the time NE's pick rolls around, there's a quality QB that both teams like still on the board.  But Jacksonville knows that Houston will take him with the #33 pick and they want him.  So they deal the #39, plus the #70 and a 2015 first rounder to NE for the #29.  Thus, Jax gets not only the best WR in the draft, they also add a quality QB to get him the ball.  NE moves down 10 spots, still adds a quality player they need, but adds a 2014 third rounder plus a 2015 first rounder as well.
 
That could work.
 

Rico Guapo

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ivanvamp said:
That's what'll happen.  Pats will trade down into the early second round and will still get a very good player there, plus will add picks later in this draft or in 2015 (or both).  
 
For example, I could see Houston taking Clowney at #1, then Jacksonville taking Watkins at #3.  Both teams still need a QB, and by the time NE's pick rolls around, there's a quality QB that both teams like still on the board.  But Jacksonville knows that Houston will take him with the #33 pick and they want him.  So they deal the #39, plus the #70 and a 2015 first rounder to NE for the #29.  Thus, Jax gets not only the best WR in the draft, they also add a quality QB to get him the ball.  NE moves down 10 spots, still adds a quality player they need, but adds a 2014 third rounder plus a 2015 first rounder as well.
 
That could work.
 
I like this idea as well, but it also depends greatly on who is available at 29...
 

DanoooME

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ivanvamp said:
That's what'll happen.  Pats will trade down into the early second round and will still get a very good player there, plus will add picks later in this draft or in 2015 (or both).  
 
For example, I could see Houston taking Clowney at #1, then Jacksonville taking Watkins at #3.  Both teams still need a QB, and by the time NE's pick rolls around, there's a quality QB that both teams like still on the board.  But Jacksonville knows that Houston will take him with the #33 pick and they want him.  So they deal the #39, plus the #70 and a 2015 first rounder to NE for the #29.  Thus, Jax gets not only the best WR in the draft, they also add a quality QB to get him the ball.  NE moves down 10 spots, still adds a quality player they need, but adds a 2014 third rounder plus a 2015 first rounder as well.
 
That could work.
 
I'll take the under on what they get for #29, even if Bridgewater is still there.  There's no way they get a 1st in '15.
 

ivanvamp

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DanoooME said:
 
I'll take the under on what they get for #29, even if Bridgewater is still there.  There's no way they get a 1st in '15.
 
Now who knows if it will ever happen, and if it doesn't, why it doesn't, but why is there "no way" they get a 1st in 2015?  I agree it's probably more likely that Jax would surrender a 2nd rounder in 2015, but I don't see a 1st rounder as being impossible.  
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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ivanvamp said:
 
Now who knows if it will ever happen, and if it doesn't, why it doesn't, but why is there "no way" they get a 1st in 2015?  I agree it's probably more likely that Jax would surrender a 2nd rounder in 2015, but I don't see a 1st rounder as being impossible.  
Teams have really moved away from this kind of deal, giving up a future 1 for a 2. I'll be shocked if it happens.

A big problem for us also is that CLE is likely to take a QB at 26 if they don't take one at 4. So if only one QB falls, that's your likely landing spot.
 

DanoooME

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ivanvamp said:
 
Now who knows if it will ever happen, and if it doesn't, why it doesn't, but why is there "no way" they get a 1st in 2015?  I agree it's probably more likely that Jax would surrender a 2nd rounder in 2015, but I don't see a 1st rounder as being impossible.  
 
It's not impossible, but highly unlikely since they would be dealing with a team starting to get a clue, as opposed to dealing with Dallas or Washington.
 
Especially when #32 is allegedly worth only #40 and #96 (Seattle/Minnesota - looking for the link, I read so much stuff about the draft yesterday).
 

Mugsy's Jock

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My intangibles are completely off the charts.  Let's go already.
 
Edit:  Me, I'd be surprised if Bridgewater is still on the board at #29.  I think it's one of those "so far out it's in" kind of scenarios -- so many folks downplaying his status that you have to believe that somebody's blowing smoke.  [By the way, enormously in the Patriots' interest to be one of those smoke-blowers.  Just sayin'...]
 
I also think a 2015 1st, even with Bridgewater on the board, is optimistic -- but you certainly could get a net-benefit package from a number of potential partners (Jacksonville, Vikings, Bucs, Arizona, Houston, et als) if the right QB is on the board and the target team didn't use its first-rounder on Bortles or Manziel (or Bridgewater). 
 
Somebody would trade up to keep Carr or Garrapolo before Houston takes them at #33, I'd guess (or Houston would trade up to retain a shot at their target).  So, Bridgewater aside, what do you get for #29 if the partner "only" gets one of those guys?  Even if it's "only" a good 2nd, a good 4th, and a 3rd next year...that'd probably be more value than the Pats could realize taking the 29th pick.
 

DJnVa

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Mugsys Jock said:
 
Somebody would trade up to keep Carr or Garrapolo before Houston takes them at #
 
The Cardinals are supposedly VERY high on Carr and I've read that he won't get past them at #20. Which means the Dolphins at #19 could be looking to deal that pick. Which in turn means the Cardinals may want to jump up a few spots.
 

edoug

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Mugsys Jock said:
My intangibles are completely off the charts.  Let's go already.
 
Edit:  Me, I'd be surprised if Bridgewater is still on the board at #29.  I think it's one of those "so far out it's in" kind of scenarios -- so many folks downplaying his status that you have to believe that somebody's blowing smoke.  [By the way, enormously in the Patriots' interest to be one of those smoke-blowers.  Just sayin'...]
 
I also think a 2015 1st, even with Bridgewater on the board, is optimistic -- but you certainly could get a net-benefit package from a number of potential partners (Jacksonville, Vikings, Bucs, Arizona, Houston, et als) if the right QB is on the board and the target team didn't use its first-rounder on Bortles or Manziel (or Bridgewater). 
 
Somebody would trade up to keep Carr or Garrapolo before Houston takes them at #33, I'd guess (or Houston would trade up to retain a shot at their target).  So, Bridgewater aside, what do you get for #29 if the partner "only" gets one of those guys?  Even if it's "only" a good 2nd, a good 4th, and a 3rd next year...that'd probably be more value than the Pats could realize taking the 29th pick.
I know you can't trust anything that comes out from NFL people during this time of year (or any other time really) but the Browns may be interested at 26 or maybe even trade up.
 
.http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2014/05/cleveland_browns_gm_ray_farmer_4.html
 
However he turns out as a pro, whoever gets Bridgewater is getting a great guy.
 
http://blog.thebreastcancersite.com/teddy-bridgewater-surprises-mom-with-pink-escalade/?utm_source=social&utm_medium=bcsfan&utm_campaign=teddy-bridgewater-surprises-mom-with-pink-escalade&utm_term=20140508
 
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Is there a good sportsbar between Wallingford and Hartford/Vernon/Tolland that will be open late on a weeknight and show post-draft coverage with sound?
 

RedOctober3829

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edoug said:
 
I know you can't trust anything that comes out from NFL people during this time of year (or any other time really) but the Browns may be interested at 26 or maybe even trade up.
 
.http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2014/05/cleveland_browns_gm_ray_farmer_4.html
 
However he turns out as a pro, whoever gets Bridgewater is getting a great guy.
 
http://blog.thebreastcancersite.com/teddy-bridgewater-surprises-mom-with-pink-escalade/?utm_source=social&utm_medium=bcsfan&utm_campaign=teddy-bridgewater-surprises-mom-with-pink-escalade&utm_term=20140508
 
Why trade up when they can just draft Manziel at 4?  That's dumb.
 

DJnVa

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RedOctober3829 said:
Why trade up when they can just draft Manziel at 4?  That's dumb.
 
Because maybe they can get Watkins at 4 then the QB later?
 

ernieshore

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ESPN or NFL Network?
 
Berman ruins ESPN for me, but I can't see Michael Irvin and Neon Deion providing me true insights into all these college players. I'm actually thinking I will just listen to the PFW/Patriots.com guys online instead just because I enjoy their podcast so much -- while watching the Bruins at the same time, of course.   
 

jsinger121

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ernieshore said:
ESPN or NFL Network?
 
Berman ruins ESPN for me, but I can't see Michael Irvin and Neon Deion providing me true insights into all these college players. I'm actually thinking I will just listen to the PFW/Patriots.com guys online instead just because I enjoy their podcast so much -- while watching the Bruins at the same time, of course.   
 
NFL Network
 

Cellar-Door

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ivanvamp said:
 
Now who knows if it will ever happen, and if it doesn't, why it doesn't, but why is there "no way" they get a 1st in 2015?  I agree it's probably more likely that Jax would surrender a 2nd rounder in 2015, but I don't see a 1st rounder as being impossible.  
It would be a pretty massive overpay. Not all teams still use the Jimmy Johnson chart, but most trades since the new CBA have been reasonably close to the Johnson values (top 5 picks less so). The Chart would have the 39 and 70 alone as about a 17% increase in value. (640 pts to 750 pts.) Add in a future 1st, (a top 12 pick is worth somewhere in the range of twice what the Patriots pick is, and rises from there) and even if you decrease the value significantly for being next year it is a massive overpay.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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ElcaballitoMVP said:
Are we again avoiding announcing picks before they're announced on tv by the commish?
 
Thanks for the reminder Elcab. Added a big red NO SPOILERS note at the top of the post. 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Cellar-Door said:
It would be a pretty massive overpay. Not all teams still use the Jimmy Johnson chart, but most trades since the new CBA have been reasonably close to the Johnson values (top 5 picks less so). The Chart would have the 39 and 70 alone as about a 17% increase in value. (640 pts to 750 pts.) Add in a future 1st, (a top 12 pick is worth somewhere in the range of twice what the Patriots pick is, and rises from there) and even if you decrease the value significantly for being next year it is a massive overpay.
The other big issue is that if a team wants to move up to draft a QB, its likely a bad team so the 2015 1st could be quite high. Its one thing for the Saints to give us a late 2nd and a future 1st in 2011 when they were very confident that the 2012 1st would be in the mid-to-late 20s (still stupid, but not insanely so). Its another thing entirely for a team to give us a future 1st that could be Top 10.
 

Tony C

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I'm not clear how news on draft picks could be considered a spoiler -- how does getting word before the Commish announces spoil anything?
 

Ed Hillel

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Tony C said:
I'm not clear how news on draft picks could be considered a spoiler -- how does getting word before the Commish announces spoil anything?
 
It spoils it for people watching on TV who want to view it as an event. However, NFLN and ESPN have basically started reporting picks before the Commissioner anyways, so I'm not sure what good it does at this point. It's probably more applicable in the later rounds where reporters don't care enough to gather the information before it's announced.
 

Reverend

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Tony C said:
I'm not clear how news on draft picks could be considered a spoiler -- how does getting word before the Commish announces spoil anything?
 
I assume that some people enjoy the progressive building of tension and suspense as the Commish comes to the podium and makes the announcement. Finding out in a thread would come close in time, but at a kind of random and unexpected moment that wouldn't have that build of energy and the release of either joy, anguish or confusion (Jets/Dolphins Edition) that occurs.
 
If you extend your argument, it could be applied to any form of entertainment. "I mean, once you decided to pay for the ticket, you were eventually going to find out Goose died, right?"
 

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Ed Hillel said:
 
It spoils it for people watching on TV who want to view it as an event. However, NFLN and ESPN have basically started reporting picks before the Commissioner anyways, so I'm not sure what good it does at this point. It's probably more applicable in the later rounds where reporters don't care enough to gather the information before it's announced.
Thought I read NFLN was going to be spoiler free. 
 
Wonder what the Pats will trade down for tonight.  Ideal would be a team with downside willing to give up '15 1st to get a sliding QB, but doubt we'll get that lucky.
 

E5 Yaz

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Reverend said:
 
I assume that some people enjoy the progressive building of tension and suspense as the Commish comes to the podium and makes the announcement. Finding out in a thread would come close in time, but at a kind of random and unexpected moment that wouldn't have that build of energy and the release of either joy, anguish or confusion (Jets/Dolphins Edition) that occurs.
 
So, you're saying it's like waiting for your prom date to fake her orgasm?
 

Tony C

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I think it's more than a bit different than ruining the unfolding plot of a movie or book, but no problem if the consensus is different.
 

E5 Yaz

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Peter King

 
7. I think there’s a team with a very good veteran quarterback in his 30s that loves Blake Bortles. Just loves him. And if Bortles somehow falls into the twenties, this team is going to try to trade for a pick to get him.
 
 
Hmmm
 

ivanvamp

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Can I make a request that the NFL (or espn, or whomever) will listen to?  Please, please, PLEASE do not have the announcers and commentators be miked up so that they will be broadcast to the audience in the arena!!  I can't stand it when the audience is buzzing with energy only to have to quiet down so they can hear something being broadcast for the TV audience.
 
I hate it when they do this after baseball games at Fenway too.  The crowd is going nuts after a walk-off hit, and then they all get quiet so that Jenny Dell (or whoever the babe of the year for NESN is) can ask Gomes a couple of questions.  It kills the atmosphere, which is supposed to be raucous.  
 

ivanvamp

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Morgan's Magic Snowplow said:
Browns fans giving Jets fans a run for their money at the draft.
 
Just think about what those jerseys represent for that organization.  Wow.
 

Soxy Brown

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Stitch01 said:
Thought I read NFLN was going to be spoiler free.
Correct, as will ESPN. NFL told them both to kibosh spoiling picks. That includes all their reporters on other mediums as well (no more Schefter tweets).

As someone alluded to earlier in the thread, the only spoilers will come via reporters not employed by those two networks.
 

bbc23

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I am putting the over/under on the amount of players whose walk-up song is "I'm the Man" at 3.5 
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Super Nomario said:
The draft is full of such middle school nonsense. "We don't even want to trade down!"
 
And after they've spent the last month or so basically begging other teams to make them offers.
 
I really have no clue but I get the feeling that the Texans aren't really in love with Clowney.  I would not be shocked to see them trade down for a surprisingly small haul in the end or even to take Mack.
 

Cellar-Door

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E5 Yaz said:
Peter King
 
Hmmm
If you take the 30's thing literally that is:
SF- (King probably wouldn't call Kaep a very good veteran)
DEN- Could be
SEA- see SF
HOU- no VG vet
WAS- see SF
CLE- no vet
OAK- no Vet
ATL- could be
TAM- no vet
JAX- no vet
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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Cellar-Door said:
If you take the 30's thing literally that is:
SF- (King probably wouldn't call Kaep a very good veteran)
DEN- Could be
SEA- see SF
HOU- no VG vet
WAS- see SF
CLE- no vet
OAK- no Vet
ATL- could be
TAM- no vet
JAX- no vet
 
I think it's Denver. They don't have a ton of holes so they could 'waste' a 1st rounder on Peyton's replacement.  
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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DaughtersofDougMirabelli said:
 
I think it's Denver. They don't have a ton of holes so they could 'waste' a 1st rounder on Peyton's replacement.  
 
It makes sense.  There have been a lot of rumblings about Denver wanting to move up in general.