2014 Cowboys: Deja vu all over again

[Oil Can Dan]

Yeah, that's what I meant.  Wasn't as clear as I should have been on that.
 
It's the Cowboy thread so won't clutter it up too much with Eagle talk, but I think the Foles hit is pretty big actually.  It'll be interesting to see how Sanchize does with a better OL, a better coach, and better skill position players around him.  If Foles misses six games that's Panthers, @ Green Bay, Tennessee, @ Dallas, Sea and Dallas.  If Philly can go 4-2 through those six then they're on to something, but I think that's a tall glass of milk.
 
I fully expected the Cowboys to beat AZ even w/o Romo, but yeah - Weeden was a lot worse than I thought he'd be. Based on the Eagles/Cards game the week prior it seemed the best way to score on AZ was through the air, and I think I discounted that going in to that game.  And I didn't expect Weeden to be quite that bad.
 
I still think that pounding the ball and playing competent defense will take them past Jacksonville, then they get the bye and I assume Romo will be back for the @ Giants game.
 
If Philly beats Carolina, loses @ GB, and beats Tenn at home then they're 8-3 coming to Dallas, who I think will also be 8-3.  Dallas should have Romo while Philly will have Sanchez.  I know there'a a lot more to winning games than the QB, but I think Dallas is looking pretty good for the division here just past the halfway point.

 

[Bosoxen]

It'll be interesting to see how Sanchize does with a better OL, a better coach, and better skill position players around him.

 
That's exactly what I said about Weeden. Clearly, the thought that he suffered due to poor conditions in Cleveland was misplaced. It seems he may just not be a good quarterback after all.

 

[LondonSox]

Weeden was a Cousins light for me, capable of a good game randomly but pretty damn shitty overall. Not a disaster for an emergency or for a super cash strapped team but for a primary back up for a team with playoff ambitions with a QB who was coming off some scary back stuff well it is what it is, but it's not good.
 
Sanchez fell apart in a truly ugly situation, but let's not forget he did show as a young player he could manage a team. Frankly I'm not sure the Eagles need Sanchez to be amazing, just stop turning over the god damn ball. I think we'll know pretty quickly if he can control himself under Kelly. I'm not optimistic but a guy who won playoff games and lost his way is different from a Weeden.
I Think the cowboys can beat the Jags sans Romo, the Jags are actually not bad at rushing the passer and with the bye coming up resting Romo for like 4 weeks and missing only one game of note is a pretty great deal. IMO sending him to London is a bit odd, it's smells of Jerry and him getting worried. The Jags are HORRIBLE (though getting better) but their best skill is the one thing the Cowboys can't afford.
 
What do you think Bosoxen? Would you play him? If not you should just leave him behind right?
 
P.S. live forever Jerry.

 

[Bosoxen]

I would leave the decision up to the medical staff. Everything I've heard about the injury suggests that he's in no danger of this becoming a more significant injury. It seems to be more of a pain tolerance issue than anything else. So if the medical staff thinks he can play (with the caveat that there is no edict from Jerry that he should), then I don't have a problem with it. But if the medical staff thinks he'd be better off with the extra two weeks of rest, then I would hope they would go with that.
 
If he will not be playing, then I still don't have any problem with him traveling with the team. If this were anyone else, then maybe there could be a case made that injured players shouldn't make the trip. But we're talking about the team's starting quarterback. You want him on the sideline helping out the team. I saw him yesterday talking to Weeden while he looked at the game stills. That's exactly why he should make the trip, even if he's not playing.

 

[LondonSox]

Yeah I don't think the travel is likely such a big deal, they ain't travelling coach. The sideline aspect is a good point.

 

[gryoung]

Jerry Jones is generally considered to be an ass with the way he thrusts himself into game-day management and is a constant sideline presence.  In yesterday's Pats/Broncos game, Bob Kraft was also shown on the sidelines with his son - both gleefully applauding.  This is the first time I've seen that and hope he's not on the same path to become JJ of the AFC. 

 

[JerBear]

Jerry Jones is generally considered to be an ass with the way he thrusts himself into game-day management and is a constant sideline presence.  In yesterday's Pats/Broncos game, Bob Kraft was also shown on the sidelines with his son - both gleefully applauding.  This is the first time I've seen that and hope he's not on the same path to become JJ of the AFC. 

It was just before halftime; they were getting ready to do the 3-time champ ceremony.

 

[gryoung]

It was just before halftime; they were getting ready to do the 3-time champ ceremony.

 
Well then ..........never mind.  
 
Thank you.

 

[Greg29fan]

Yeah I don't think the travel is likely such a big deal, they ain't travelling coach. The sideline aspect is a good point.

 
Everybody is going on the trip, injured dudes, Josh Brent, the whole organization.

 

[JohnnyK]

In other news, look at the hastag the 'boys Twitter is using for the London game:
https://twitter.com/dallascowboys/status/529444932474654720

 
Next tweet will be from London

#CowboysUK

Might be a good idea to read it out loud before going with it next time...

 

[LondonSox]

If they were to lose to the Jags that would seem like a tag that might hang around over the bye week (though I think that would be a shocking result)

 

[EP Sox Fan]

One thing the Jags do well is get after the QB. Dropping the Redskins game looks more egregious given that they would have been in a better position to allow Romo the extra week of rest with the bye week. 7-2 with a game up on Philly is much better than 6-3 and a game down. Makes it feel like this Jacksonville game is much more important than it should be. Even worse, you start to see the pressure creep up on a team that has not dealt with this kind of pressure well over the last few years.  As far as Jacksonville is concerned, they're playing with the house's money.  No one expects them to win and everyone thinks this is a glorified exhibition for America's Team (TM).
 
I know the injury is not considered to be severe or debilitating, but it's a definite reminder of how screwed this team is without Romo. The Cardinals loaded the box and dared Weeden to beat them with his arm and boy was he not up to the task. I was really expecting Weeden to at least make it a game. He was Brad Johnson-esque out there. The Cardinals defense was as good as advertised at stopping the run but there should have been some opportunities against a struggling secondary. Come to think of it, everyone talked about how the Redskins secondary was a dumpster fire going into that game. Pretty sure that we had limited success against that one too. After seeing how abysmal the Giants' pass defense was yesterday, I can't feel that good about the pass offense, especially with Weeden plating QB in slow motion or having a not healthy Romo standing back there trying not to get injured against what is a pretty good pass rush.
 
I have now suceeded in psyching myself out for this Jags game. Especially since now I remember David Garrard and a mediocre Jags team carving up a John Kitna led Cowboys team in Cowboys Stadium back in 2010. 

 

[Bosoxen]

I have two words that should make you feel better: Blake Bortles
 
If Brandon Weeden is a dumpster fire, Blake Bortles is a landfill inferno.

 

[LondonSox]

I have two words that should make you feel better: Blake Bortles
 
If Brandon Weeden is a dumpster fire, Blake Bortles is a landfill inferno.

 
And they don't exactly have the running game to match either.
If the Jags can run up the score on the Cowboys with their offensive (right word) "talent" then I think the Cowboys defensive honeymoon period would have to be considered over. But I can't imagine that's a likely outcome frankly. The cowboys might not be the powerhouse they looked two weeks ago, but it's the frickin Jags. 

 

[Bosoxen]

I doubt EP is worried about the Jags running up the score. If the Jags want any chance of winning, they'll have to win a 13-10 ugly-fest. If Weeden plays, I don't expect the Cowboys to win going away, but they should be able to run the ball well enough to win.

 

[EP Sox Fan]

I doubt EP is worried about the Jags running up the score. If the Jags want any chance of winning, they'll have to win a 13-10 ugly-fest. If Weeden plays, I don't expect the Cowboys to win going away, but they should be able to run the ball well enough to win.

 
If it goes south, I see it being exactly the same way as the Redskins game. Not worried about Bortles morphing into 2010 David Gerrard who was himself chanelling John Elway in that game courtesy of that insane failure of a defense. My loose comparison to the 2010 game was really based on the fact that a backup QB was in the game and we lost to a crappy Jags team.  The 2014 Jags are far worse.
 
I have been conditioned to expect the worst from this franchise over the last 18 years. Especially when things are looking up. Sometimes I feel like Randy Quaid's character in Major League 2. Yes, I actually saw that movie. And yes, it was inferior to the first one.

 

[Bosoxen]

 
If it goes south, I see it being exactly the same way as the Redskins game. Not worried about Bortles morphing into 2010 David Gerrard who was himself chanelling John Elway in that game courtesy of that insane failure of a defense. My loose comparison to the 2010 game was really based on the fact that a backup QB was in the game and we lost to a crappy Jags team.  The 2014 Jags are far worse.
 
I have been conditioned to expect the worst from this franchise over the last 18 years. Especially when things are looking up. Sometimes I feel like Randy Quaid's character in Major League 2. Yes, I actually saw that movie. And yes, it was inferior to the first one.

 
And how. The 2010 Jags finished 19th in weighted DVOA. They were respectably average on offense (14th overall), but dead last on defense. The 2014 Jags are the exact opposite, as they are second-to-last overall and on offense, yet they are 11th on defense. The 2010 Jags were also buoyed by their 7th overall rank on special teams, whereas they're 25th this year.
 
On paper, this matchup favors Dallas, even with the horror show that is Brandon Weeden under center. But, as EP points out, we Cowboys fans have a little bit of PTSD in us, so any sign of prosperity sends us cowering into our little corners.

 

[Bosoxen]

Romo returned to practice yesterday. Not surprisingly, Jerry expects him to play on Sunday:
 

 
“I’m anticipating him playing, have no reason to think that he won’t,” Jones said Thursday during a 27-minute press conference. “… My expectations are for him to play.”

 
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/11/06/6267107/tony-romo-closer-to-a-return-as.html

 

[Reverend]

Romo returned to practice yesterday. Not surprisingly, Jerry expects him to play on Sunday:


http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/11/06/6267107/tony-romo-closer-to-a-return-as.html

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[Greg29fan]

Romo returned to practice yesterday. Not surprisingly, Jerry expects him to play on Sunday:
 
 
http://www.star-telegram.com/2014/11/06/6267107/tony-romo-closer-to-a-return-as.html

 
Dr. Jerrah < Dr. Nick Riviera

 

[Marciano490]

 
Dr. Jerrah < Dr. Nick Riviera

 
Where's Harvey Mandrake fit in?
 
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uDgeI3qHfgU[/youtube]

 

[Greg29fan]

Not the greatest performance ever but they easily defeated a horrible team after traveling overseas and while dealing with some injuries.  Hopefully a lot of guys heal up during the bye week.

 

[TFisNEXT]

Probably the most important thing for the Cowboys was that Romo didn't look compromised like he did when he came back at the end of the Redskins game.

 

[LondonSox]

I have no idea what the Jags plan to beat the Cowboys was.
I thought if they went super aggressive on defense and attacked the QB, the Redskins model, there was a chance they could rattle Romo and MAYBE have a long shot chance at an upset. But my goodness they didn't even seem to have an idea of what they were doing.
Gus Bradley not doing a lot to impress me. I saw a lot of sloppy fundamental play and no game plan. They didn't look they thought they ahd a chance. Bizarre.
 
Anyway for the Cowboys banana skin out of way, bye to rest up and go again.
Still looks like there are more playoff worthy teams than spaces.
 
South ugh some bad team is getting in 7-9 saints in?
The East is Cowboys and Eagles
North is Lions and Packers
West is Arizona, Seattle and JUST the niners. If the niners had lost then I think they would have been dead. The lions are pulling some magic out of their ass, they D is good but their offense is almost literally doing the minimum needed as the last possible moment.
 
None of these teams are complete or without warts. But at least one solid team with a good record is going to miss out and a crappy south team will get in. The niners don't look right to me, they're on the outside looking in and they have to play the seahawks twice and the chargers and cardinals.

 

[Bosoxen]

I think the Jags might have been a little overconfident that they could get to the quarterback with just their front four. How that led to Dez Bryant being single-covered all day, I'm sure I don't know. The blueprint for attacking the Dallas offense was pretty clear as Washington and Arizona blitzed them to death with great results. Granted, it's possible that the Arizona game turns out differently with Leary at left guard and Romo at quarterback (not throwing Parnell under the bus, since Free isn't exactly the best at picking up blitzes), but the results speak for themselves. It's odd that, despite the fact that the NFL has turned into a bit of a copycat league, the Jags wouldn't use the defensive game plan that led to the Cowboys' two-game losing streak. I'll take it.

 

[LondonSox]

By the way that Dez TD right before the half that ended the game as a contest was pretty bad ass.

 

[Bosoxen]

Yup. That was play-of-the-year quality shit right there.

 

[DanoooME]

I think the Jags might have been a little overconfident that they could get to the quarterback with just their front four. How that led to Dez Bryant being single-covered all day, I'm sure I don't know. The blueprint for attacking the Dallas offense was pretty clear as Washington and Arizona blitzed them to death with great results. Granted, it's possible that the Arizona game turns out differently with Leary at left guard and Romo at quarterback (not throwing Parnell under the bus, since Free isn't exactly the best at picking up blitzes), but the results speak for themselves. It's odd that, despite the fact that the NFL has turned into a bit of a copycat league, the Jags wouldn't use the defensive game plan that led to the Cowboys' two-game losing streak. I'll take it.

 
The fact that Gus Bradley refused to alter his defensive game plan at any point is a bad sign for him as a head coach.  I understand that the defensive philosophy he works with is predicated on little blitzing (Jags are last in terms of blitz percentage) and he has a decent front four, but when it's not working, it's time to adjust.  He didn't do that.  I don't understand why.

 

[Bosoxen]

 
The fact that Gus Bradley refused to alter his defensive game plan at any point is a bad sign for him as a head coach.  I understand that the defensive philosophy he works with is predicated on little blitzing (Jags are last in terms of blitz percentage) and he has a decent front four, but when it's not working, it's time to adjust.  He didn't do that.  I don't understand why.

 
Oddly enough, lack of adjustments is what likely cost the Cowboys the Washington game. I can see getting stubborn when you're working with what is widely hailed as the best offensive line in the game (though I still think it's beyond stupid), but doing it with a 1-win team is inexcusable. Not putting your players in the best position to win is the quickest way to earn a one-way ticket to former coachville.

 

[LondonSox]

Pretty happy that the Eagles "missed out" on Bradley. I don't see much from Bradley. The defense is undisciplined and lacks fundamentals.
The offense is a train wreck.

I mean I know they were a mess when he took over but I don't see any light down the end of the tunnel.

 

[Bosoxen]

Pants: Off.

 

[Greg29fan]

Tony Romo is now 26-5 in November.

 

[LondonSox]

Huge game thursday. I think it's as likely to be a split over the two games but they are going to be tense.
 
I think the Eagles strengths matchup well vs the strengths of the cowboys to some extent.
Eagles good pass rush, vs some questions on the o-line in pass protection. Small edge Eagles
Eagles ok run defense (hurt by another linebacker injury this week) vs Cowboys excellent run attack. Edge cowboys but smaller than you might think
Eagles horrible secondary vs cowboys decent pass attack. Big edge Cowboys. The Eagles have no one to cover Bryant for me.
 
The game may hinge on pass rush. If the Eagles can't get to Romo they can't stop Bryant.
 
Eagles improving run game vs Cowboys run def: edge eagles
Eagles pass protection vs Cowboys pass rush, edge eagles
Eagles passing offense vs cowboys pass d, edge eagles
Sanchez at QB, edge cowboys
 
Special team, big edge eagles.
 
I expect the Eagles to be able to move the ball. The game for me will be decided by a few things. Red zone (eagles have been poor and will need to be solid here), Eagles pass rush vs cowboys o-line, if the oline can hold up I think the Eagles won't be able to stop the passing game.
Plus of course turnovers. The Eagles seem unable to stop turning the ball over, so if the cowboys don't give the ball up, it's going to be hard.
 
Short week for both. Increasing pressure, as it looks really possible for a 10 win team to miss the playoffs.

 

[Bosoxen]

I agree with most of what you said, though I'm not sure where you're getting that the Cowboys' pass protection is questionable. Yes, Romo gets pressured. But every quarterback gets pressured sooner or later. I think the biggest question regarding the offensive line is their ability to pick up the blitz. It's no coincidence that their two latest losses came against blitz-heavy teams (though, it didn't help that Weeden had to play in those two games). With that said, according to PFF, the Eagles blitz about 35% of the time, so there would be some cause for concern there.
 
The teams are pretty evenly matched, so we should see a split. It just remains to be seen whether the home team or visiting team will take both games, which should be pretty high scoring affairs.

 

[LondonSox]

I think the only criticism of the o-line has been communication in pass protection, as essentially you mention. It's a very good point that these were with Weeden, maybe Romo is a big help there helping flag the rushers? As well as being better at hot reads etc.
 
I think this is something the Eagles do well, I did a piece for football central which was highlighting their blitz and how they do a good job confusing the line as to who is coming vs dropping, and also that several pass rushers have developed skills elsewhere which let's the eagles keep them on the field more (Cole, Graham and Curry basically)
 
But the injury to Ryan (as well as his backup and now one of the rotation guys behind even that backup) is a major concern vs the running game for the Eagles. This wasn't really tested vs the Titans.
 
The one thing the Cowboys can't afford is to get behind and get one dimensional.

 

[Bosoxen]

I think the only criticism of the o-line has been communication in pass protection, as essentially you mention. It's a very good point that these were with Weeden, maybe Romo is a big help there helping flag the rushers? As well as being better at hot reads etc.

 
That's my thinking. You see a lot more pre snap communication with Romo than was ever seen with Weeden. That's one underrated aspect of having a veteran under center. I know it's frowned upon here to say anything positive about Peyton Manning, but he's the perfect example of what a quarterback can do to prepare his team before the ball is snapped. It's even more critical for the Cowboys because of their young offensive line.
 

 
The one thing the Cowboys can't afford is to get behind and get one dimensional.

 
They've shown on several occasions this season that they're a lot more unwilling to do that than in years past. They may have momentary lapses where they get too cute (they had one such instance last night, which led to the 4th quarter go-ahead touchdown drive by the Giants), but they have had a tendency to stick with the run. The Cowboys of the last five years would have finished last night's game with about 60 yards rushing - and lost. But they stuck with the run and it helped them pull out the win.

 

[LondonSox]

Both good points. I'm pretty excited for this game, though I'd think the most likely outcome is a split over the two games.
If philly were to lose both the seattle game becomes a 100% must win, and for the Cowboys the colts game.
 
If they split and take care of their respective easier games (both @ Washington and @ NYG and @ chicago respectively) they would both get to 11 wins without winning the seahawks and colts games respectively. I have to think 11 wins should get you in.
 
For that reason I think there is very mildly more pressure on the Cowboys this week, just because you don't want to have a MUST win away against a decent team - esp with Philly playing very well at home recently. I don't think it's a big deal, but an Eagles win would be a bigger deal than a Cowboys one. Although I doubt the media spin will agree! It'll will be the end of the world for someone.

 

[Bosoxen]

I think it is a bit more of a must-win game for Dallas. They both have three conference losses, but one of the Cowboys' losses was a division loss. Losing the game on Thursday will put them behind the 8-ball in most tie-break scenarios.
 
You're right that 11 wins is the magic mark. The NFC is a mess, and it's entirely possible that a 10-win team won't make it into the playoffs, while an 8 or 7-win team gets to host a game. If it's the Cowboys on the outside looking in, look for Jerruh to really make a push for expanding the playoffs.

 

[LondonSox]

By the way I was just watching the game winning tD, what the hell is it with Romo and the turning his back on a hit as he releases it.
 
It looks mechanically terrible, and given the source of his injury turning his back into the helmet seems the worst course of action. I remember seeing it before but it seems like a bad idea jeans type of thing no? Is he doing it more in the game or just a one off?
 
edit btw I don't think much of the Gaints pass rush generally but that play was a hell of a pass protection example for your case that they are solid enough at that.

 

[Bosoxen]

He's always done that. He's always turned away from the contact, which could potentially explain the back issues.
 
Then again, getting blasted in the chest and having your head bounce off the turf is a recipe for concussions, so maybe he's onto something. I honestly don't know which is better/worse, but I do agree that it looks weird.

 

[Super Nomario]

I agree with most of what you said, though I'm not sure where you're getting that the Cowboys' pass protection is questionable. Yes, Romo gets pressured. But every quarterback gets pressured sooner or later. I think the biggest question regarding the offensive line is their ability to pick up the blitz. It's no coincidence that their two latest losses came against blitz-heavy teams (though, it didn't help that Weeden had to play in those two games). With that said, according to PFF, the Eagles blitz about 35% of the time, so there would be some cause for concern there.

 
 

I think the only criticism of the o-line has been communication in pass protection, as essentially you mention. It's a very good point that these were with Weeden, maybe Romo is a big help there helping flag the rushers? As well as being better at hot reads etc.

I don't know about the Cowboys' struggles in particular, but in general I tend to think of issues with the blitz as being with the QB more than the OL. Other than pointing out the mike, the QB has a critical role in handling it properly when they have the wrong protection, which will happen from time-to-time. Sometimes the QB's going to identify the left inside linebacker as the blitzer and the right ILB comes, or the slot corner, or the weakside 'backer, etc. In that case, he needs to know whether there's a back to pick that blitzer up, whether that blitz leaves someone open, who his hot read is, what sight adjustments there are, etc. Sometimes you guess wrong on protection and there's a free rusher - that looks like the OL's fault, but in reality it's a situation where the QB has to know how to handle it. The best ones know the permutations and can get rid of the ball quickly to the right spot; the worst ones are helpless and end up taking sacks or are pressured into dumb throws.

 

[LondonSox]

It's a shame the Jag's crapped the bed so badly, if they had been aggressive and attacked the QB it would have been interesting to see what happened. I think the Eagles will be aggressive, because the secondary cannot hold up without it. Fletcher just sucks.

 

[LondonSox]

My football central preview is up http://soshcentral.com/nfl/eagles-at-cowboys-thanksgiving-day-preview/ 
 

 
 

Conclusion:
A slight edge to each offense over the respective opposing defense sets the table for an exciting, high scoring game. The Eagles win if the pass rush can get home and they protect the rock. The Cowboys prevail if they can protect Romo and run a diverse offense, though they would still probably need to generate turnovers or excel in the red zone.

 

[LondonSox]

Nothing huh. Interesting.
 
Did Romo get hit and get nervous yesterday? I didn't really see him take a hard hit but he was clearly flustered in the second half and went down untouched at least once, if not twice. And then even when he wasn't being hit he was getting happy feet and missing open targets. I don't think it would have mattered but he didn't look right.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Nothing huh. Interesting.
 
Did Romo get hit and get nervous yesterday? I didn't really see him take a hard hit but he was clearly flustered in the second half and went down untouched at least once, if not twice. And then even when he wasn't being hit he was getting happy feet and missing open targets. I don't think it would have mattered but he didn't look right.

I don't watch any Cowboys, and they're saying maybe it's lack of rest, not anything structural (http://nypost.com/2014/11/28/gimpy-romo-wont-use-lack-of-rest-as-excuse-for-his-poor-outing/), but the one play where he moved to his left and then let fly to the end zone, having his pass end up something like 7 yards short of its target, made me think that something was really wrong. But maybe it's just that his back can't come back in four days after a game.

 

[LondonSox]

The weirdest play was on a sack where a rusher reached and barely touched him and instead of stepping up into the pocket and throwing he went down to the turf and an Eagles flopped on him for a sack.

 

[Granite Sox]

His passes increasingly had no zip, a la a modern-day Peyton.  Very strange.  Plus the "seeing ghosts" sacks.
 
Sumpin' not right.

 

[Greg29fan]

Romo has been taking at least one day a week off from practice, no activity whatsoever and has been using the entire week to get extensive treatment on his back.  A short week didn't afford them any of those kind of luxuries and it showed up.  Plus the line struggled badly in pass protection.  
 
A concerning loss but we'll see if it happens again with a normal, full week of preparation where Romo can go through his usual protocol.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

The fighting on the sidelines the entire second half was a nice touch.

 

[Marciano490]

I missed the fighting.  Who else's wife did Murray screw?