Indy is tougher than you give them credit for IMO. I expect them to beat Dallas and for the NFC East to come down to week 17.
2014 Cowboys: Deja vu all over again
- Thread starter Bosoxen
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The bye scenario is a longshot for Dallas but they play at 1 pm. So they won't know anything more than they do now. Should they play Romo or let him sit?
That's definitely the most likely scenario. But considering the odds of that happening are astronomical, I think what we'll see is the Cowboys play their starters for one or two quarters and then rest them the rest of the game. I just don't see the benefit of going balls to the wall in the hopes that Seattle trips up at home. Seattle needs to win that game, since there are still scenarios that would put them in as a wild card, so they're going to come out guns blazing.
You know what's crazy about this season? Dallas surprises everybody and finishes strong, yet they still get the short end of the stick. They most likely will get the 3 seed and a date with either Detroit or Green Bay while a 7 win NFC South "Champion" gets to play Arizona.
The fuck?
Rolando McClain's Alabama Mansion Destroyed By Fire
http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/12071554/home-rolando-mcclain-dallas-cowboys-destroyed-suspicious-fire-authorities-say
Rolando McClain's Alabama Mansion Destroyed By Fire
http://espn.go.com/dallas/nfl/story/_/id/12071554/home-rolando-mcclain-dallas-cowboys-destroyed-suspicious-fire-authorities-say
Dallas shouldn't play their starters much. Getting a bye completely is dependent on Arizona and Seattle both losing...and it doesn't matter if Dallas wins even if that happens. Dallas wins a tiebreaker against Seattle if they both finish 11-5 since they beat them earlier this season. What has screwed Dallas into the #3 seed is that they are forced into 3-way tiebreaker with Seattle and whoever wins the NFC North in the 12-4 scenario and they lose in the 3-way tie. But they can beat Seattle in a head to head tiebreaker, so it doesn't matter if Dallas wins or loses on Sunday. It only matters that Arizona and Seattle both lose which is a long shot. (not Arizona, but for Seattle to lose at home to St. Louis)
The only bizarre scenario where it matters for Dallas to win is if the Detroit at Green Bay game ends in a tie. In that case, they could get the #1 seed by finishing 12-4 with Detroit and Green Bay both 11-4-1 and Seattle at 12-4. Then the Cowboys would win a head to head tiebreaker against Seattle for the #1 seed.
So given that the outcome of the Dallas game actually mattering is contingient on a tie between two other teams, Garrett would be foolish to play Tony Romo and Murray more than a few series.
The only bizarre scenario where it matters for Dallas to win is if the Detroit at Green Bay game ends in a tie. In that case, they could get the #1 seed by finishing 12-4 with Detroit and Green Bay both 11-4-1 and Seattle at 12-4. Then the Cowboys would win a head to head tiebreaker against Seattle for the #1 seed.
So given that the outcome of the Dallas game actually mattering is contingient on a tie between two other teams, Garrett would be foolish to play Tony Romo and Murray more than a few series.
They're going to run Murray out there until he gets the all time single season rushing record. Then we'll see a lot of Randle and Dunbar. I can see Romo playing a half with a conservative game plan offense. Haslett blitzes the Cowboys to death so I suspect they will guard against that. This team has some good momentum and I think tanking the game against their arch rivals sends the wrong message to the team. GM Jerry was telling the Dallas sports talk crowd that they were going to bring it this game. While I don't think that means they will play this like a win or go home game, I do think it means they're going to try and put this one to bed early like the Colts game. If it's competitive at half, I think it will be hard for them to keep key starters in the game.
EP Sox Fan said:
Not to nitpick - but I think you mean Emmett Smith's franchise single season rushing record - the all time record is 2105 yards, which is 360 more than his current 1745.. so I doubt they'd try to rush for almost 400 yards.
So it's the Lions coming to Jerrah World next weekend. Hell of a defense but Matt Stafford is 0-16 in his career against teams with a winning record on the road.
Little concerned about Melton and Hitchens being nicked up on defense but Romo is still playing well and Dez has been in fine form. Just need to keep doing what they did in December.
Little concerned about Melton and Hitchens being nicked up on defense but Romo is still playing well and Dez has been in fine form. Just need to keep doing what they did in December.
Simply put Detroit cannot score. And as good as their D is, the Cowboys are gonna get their 20+. I really like Dallas in this one.
I don't think I've posted in here since I was riding my "Cowboys are really fucking good" kick back in early October, but glad to see it played out the way I thought it would. This is a good football team, and I think they take apart Detroit next week. I think it sucks that at 12-4, they couldn't get a bye and rest up a bit, but all in all, they've got the right makeup to do some damage in the playoffs, particularly on offense. They control the LOS on offense, and have big play threats on the outside. If Romo continues to play the way he has, and the defense continues to hold teams to under 24 points, I think they make the conference championship, and then who knows. If they beat Detroit, I think that makes this a successful season no matter what happens after that, but I fully expect them to be a very, very tough out in these playoffs.
It seems Suh will be suspended for the game.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12093617/ndamukong-suh-detroit-lions-suspended-playoff-game
I have no idea what to make of this game. The Cowboys played a cream puff schedule (by far the easiest in the NFC) while the Lions played the second weakest schedule in the NFC after Dallas and had only a single win over a playoff team all year. Both are flattered by their records.
Meanwhile Jerryworld seems to offer no home field advantage, but we haven't seen a playoff game there yet.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/12093617/ndamukong-suh-detroit-lions-suspended-playoff-game
I have no idea what to make of this game. The Cowboys played a cream puff schedule (by far the easiest in the NFC) while the Lions played the second weakest schedule in the NFC after Dallas and had only a single win over a playoff team all year. Both are flattered by their records.
Meanwhile Jerryworld seems to offer no home field advantage, but we haven't seen a playoff game there yet.
We haven't? Did I hallucinate that playoff game there in 2009?
Also, you must not have watched that game against the Colts, because that was the loudest I've ever heard that place. Sounded to me like a legit home field advantage that day.
Also, you must not have watched that game against the Colts, because that was the loudest I've ever heard that place. Sounded to me like a legit home field advantage that day.
Suh's suspension is huge. Dallas' strength is their offensive line, and without Suh there to disrupt them, I expect that Murray will have some huge running lanes all day long. I liked the Cowboys before, love them now.
Deathofthebambino said:
Absolutely huge. Suh is really an idiot. Of epic proportions. This isn't news, this isn't his first run in with cheap shotting, but on the last game of the season, with a playoff game coming up, stepping on Rodger's ankle in full view of the cameras was ridiculously stupid and selfish. He must not be able to help himself. And now his team pays the price.
Deathofthebambino said:
DotB, call your bookie!
NOT suspended!
Really one of the shittiest things I can recall seeing on a NFL field, but Cowboys were planning on Suh's presence, anyway.
This is an interesting game, the Cowboys have been worse at home than on the road and I think both teams are worse than their record.
The Cowboys d has massively massively outperformed it's talent level, helped by the offensive style and well either everyone being wrong about the talent of the players or some luck.
I don't think anyone is turning into a pumpkin but that Dallas d is not great. The Lions d is pretty good. They will need to be as the Cowboys are really good offensively.
But who can cover Tate and Calvin? Could be a fun game I think it's pretty even.
The Cowboys d has massively massively outperformed it's talent level, helped by the offensive style and well either everyone being wrong about the talent of the players or some luck.
I don't think anyone is turning into a pumpkin but that Dallas d is not great. The Lions d is pretty good. They will need to be as the Cowboys are really good offensively.
But who can cover Tate and Calvin? Could be a fun game I think it's pretty even.
I don't see them being even. Dallas has the fifth highest point differential and when Romo is healthy that offfense is top 5 in football, their record seems pretty accurate to me. Their defense hasn't been a strength but it has been a full season of being a bit better than league average, I think that's a big enough sample size to say it's not luck. Green Bay ran on them last week so I can see Dallas running it's usual efficient offense, and Romo vs. Stafford is such a mismatch.
Don't listen to him. He's been beating that drum all season. I don't think he understands what the words "average defense" even mean.TheMoralBully said:
As for being worse at home, once again, you're missing the big picture, London. Take a look at the four games they lost at home and tell me what they all have in common. I'll give you a hint: it's got nothing to do with playing worse at home.
This is a good team. Even I can bring myself to admit that. I don't share the enthusiasm for the likelihood of a win against Detroit, but I'm hopeful they can win and wouldn't be surprised if they did.
They are playing big-boy football in Dallas once again for the first time in a long time. This team has all the earmarks of the "hot" one in the playoffs. It probably has the best chance of winning in Seattle. Time to stop poor mouthing prospects, especially given the trigger-puller in Detroit.
dcmissle said:
They are, I'm rooting for either Dallas or Green Bay to make the Super Bowl. But you know Dallas is going to lose a game b/c Romo will do something stupid in the final 4 minutes, after passing for 480 yards and 5 touchdowns in the previous 56 minutes. And then he will be mocked for being a choker in big games. And then Bosoxen's head will explode.
And then it will explode again.
Joke's on you. I'll be in Bedford.foulkehampshire said:
That Sherlock's is a heinous place to catch a game. Their TV situation is horrible. If you're not there the second they open, you'll be stuck contouring yourself all day to see one of the few terribly places TVs.
Bosoxen said:
Come on, you know it's in the back of your mind. It has to be. Because, you know, Romo.
johnmd20 said:
Come on, you know it's in the back of your mind. It has to be. Because, you know, Romo.
I'll never get the Romo hate. Undrafted, he's turned himself into an annual top-10 QB, despite a lackluster cast supporting him most years.
99% of the failure for the Cowboys during the Romo era is because of hideous drafting (especially on the defensive end), Jerry Jones, and poor coaching.
Look I'm not out on a limb here. Football outsiders has Dallas ranked 22 in DVOA on defense .
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/final-2014-dvoa-ratings
What exactly am I saying wrong? They have a average or worse defense, which btw is still better than anyone expected pre season.
They have a great offense. Detroit has a great defense and a flawed offense. It's strength on strength. And could go either way. I favor the Cowboys but not by much.
Edit clarity ranking is for defense
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2014/final-2014-dvoa-ratings
What exactly am I saying wrong? They have a average or worse defense, which btw is still better than anyone expected pre season.
They have a great offense. Detroit has a great defense and a flawed offense. It's strength on strength. And could go either way. I favor the Cowboys but not by much.
Edit clarity ranking is for defense
I don't think the analysis is wrong. Dallas benefits from drawing the Lions first. It's biggest challenge IMO would come from Green Bay. I do believe they match up decently against Seattle, to the extent that any road team figures to do well there. Their o-line has the capacity to take over a game from all appearances. (Has there been a bigger transformation in any team's position grouping in recent years?).
What you mind be downplaying a bit is a team getting hot and overcoming it's obvious deficiency, in this case defense.
What you mind be downplaying a bit is a team getting hot and overcoming it's obvious deficiency, in this case defense.
LondonSox said:
For one, the oddsmakers don't agree with you at all. The line opened up at Dallas -7 (they were 10-6 vs the spread this year). Not exactly the tossup you're trying to make it out to be.
LondonSox said:
I've already addressed that. They are not worse at home.
LondonSox said:
Based on what, exactly? And how much worse than their records? Yeah, they both played pretty soft schedules, but you still have to beat the teams you play. The Cowboys beat the Seahawks on the road, your beloved Eagles on the road and completely obliterated the Colts at home. They played two division winners and beat them both. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that if the Eagles had gone 12-4 or 11-5, you wouldn't be saying that about them.
LondonSox said:
This is where you completely lost me and what prompted my response. In your follow-up, you pointed out that they were 22nd in DVOA. How, exactly, is that "massively massively" outperforming their talent level? That sounds about right, based on what I saw. They outperformed expectations, for sure, but it's not like they finished in the top half of the league. If they had, then your overreaction would be warranted.
I don't think the Cowboys are worse than their record. You are what your record says you are. I was not a believer in them all year, but that win in Philly and then the absolute shellacking they put on the Colts tells me they're peaking at the right time. I think they've got just as good of a shot as Seattle or Green Bay to represent the NFC in the bowl. That OL and those skill position players forces teams to pick their poison when on defense, and Romo's a smart enough QB to exploit that. I don't see any defense shutting them down. I think they'd put up 45+ vs Green Bay and score enough vs Seattle to get out of there with a win.
I feel about the Cowboys the same way I feel about the Yankees, but they're really good. I was wrong about them this year, and I hope I'm wrong about them now. But I doubt I am.
(jinx!)
I feel about the Cowboys the same way I feel about the Yankees, but they're really good. I was wrong about them this year, and I hope I'm wrong about them now. But I doubt I am.
(jinx!)
For example the grantland piece about the Cowboys potential for a generational bad defense.
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-season-predictions-part-2-the-falling-stars/Many other people thought it too, including Dallas coverage.
"Thats not just the worst starting defense in football. Its miles away from anybody elses D for the worst in football."
They've been about average. On paper they were horrendous. Again not sure what your getting your panties in a bunch for.
I said I think the Cowboys win but it will be closer than the talk. It also depends on Romo health.
In the Eagles game in Dallas the run game was shut down and Romo was hurt and unable to carry the load. Since that short rest game he's been healthier and the results are clear. The Lions can stop the run very well. And their secondary isn't philly level awful. It's strength plays strength and that to me means it will be close and could go either way.
Again the Cowboys are better and at home. I think the spread is generous. That's ok I'm allowed an opinion.
I would say it about philly too. They didn't beat anyone. They lost very winnable games at San Fran and at Arizona. They beat the Colts and the Texans on the road. That's about it. The Cowboys similarly aside from the seahawks who did they beat who were good? Eagles Yup but also lost to them. The Colts of course but they didn't have much to play for. Texans too of course.
The Lions have had a bunch of lucky comebacks late etc. So I consider them fortunate as well.
Feel free to write me off as an Eagles fan, but I'm a football fan and I watch the Cowboys a lot for obvious reasons.
Edit adding link as I'm on phone
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nfl-season-predictions-part-2-the-falling-stars/Many other people thought it too, including Dallas coverage.
"Thats not just the worst starting defense in football. Its miles away from anybody elses D for the worst in football."
They've been about average. On paper they were horrendous. Again not sure what your getting your panties in a bunch for.
I said I think the Cowboys win but it will be closer than the talk. It also depends on Romo health.
In the Eagles game in Dallas the run game was shut down and Romo was hurt and unable to carry the load. Since that short rest game he's been healthier and the results are clear. The Lions can stop the run very well. And their secondary isn't philly level awful. It's strength plays strength and that to me means it will be close and could go either way.
Again the Cowboys are better and at home. I think the spread is generous. That's ok I'm allowed an opinion.
I would say it about philly too. They didn't beat anyone. They lost very winnable games at San Fran and at Arizona. They beat the Colts and the Texans on the road. That's about it. The Cowboys similarly aside from the seahawks who did they beat who were good? Eagles Yup but also lost to them. The Colts of course but they didn't have much to play for. Texans too of course.
The Lions have had a bunch of lucky comebacks late etc. So I consider them fortunate as well.
Feel free to write me off as an Eagles fan, but I'm a football fan and I watch the Cowboys a lot for obvious reasons.
Edit adding link as I'm on phone
BigSoxFan said:
The refs screwed the pooch on the DPI call but the refs didn't then make Jim Caldwell punt the ball from plus territory on 4th and half a yard. And those calls on the winning drive were all correct. Beasley was clearly held and Dunbar was tackled coming out of the backfield.
I noticed a hold on Detroit on the second-to-last play of the game where they got it to 4th and short. You could probably comb through the tape of every game and find five missed holding calls like that. That's how it is.
edit: Not excusing any other missed or picked up flags, though I agree that the ones on the final Dallas scoring drive were clear. But holds happen a lot and are let go. I'm not sure if they're hard to call or what.
edit: Not excusing any other missed or picked up flags, though I agree that the ones on the final Dallas scoring drive were clear. But holds happen a lot and are let go. I'm not sure if they're hard to call or what.
I'll let go of that ridiculous and obvious holding call that wasn't and just focused on the announced, correct PI call that was then deleted, and the ignored helmetless Dez Bryant in the referee's face in the field of play even though Dallas is on defense with no penalty called.
Just kidding. I'll let go of all of it because whatever. Congrats on the big win to the Cowboys.
Just kidding. I'll let go of all of it because whatever. Congrats on the big win to the Cowboys.
Yeah, I just saw the full replay on NFL Network and it looked like a borderline hold, at worst. He never grabbed jersey and seemed to pull the arm back after the arm bar started to affect the defender. I've seen about 500 more egregious plays not called holding.
Edit- Damn you, OCD. You posted like a nano second before me.
Edit- Damn you, OCD. You posted like a nano second before me.
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