2014-2015 NC Hoops: Duke Rules the Road
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UVA shouldn't be, but might eke it out. That's a program that for some reason is always overrated going into both the ACC and NCAA tournaments. The sun will rise, the sun will set, and UVA will wash out early in their tournaments.Drocca said:
SumnerH said:
That's a curious statement to make, only because until very recently UVA has had very little post season success, but nobody's really had any expectations for them either. The program's been pretty much DOA between Ralph Sampson and Tony Bennett with the exception of a handful of runs here and there. I'm not sure how you can be overrated when you're not even rated by anyone to start with.
If we're discussing the Bennett era, especially the last two seasons, then I'll have to disagree whole-heartedly with your statement. UVA has a 16-2 record in the ACC the last two regular seasons. They were the number one seed going into the ACC tournament each year. How can you be "overrated" going into the ACC tournament when you just dominated the regular season? They lost in the sweet sixteen last year against a Michigan State team that was underseeded due to being pummeled by injuries all season. Despite the seeding, most pundits picked MSU to win this region, which they only failed to do because they ran into the UConn buzzsaw. S in the eyes of many of the basketball experts, UVA did what was expected, lose in a very close game to a very tough matchup.
This season they have three losses: Duke at home, at Louisville, UNC in the acc tournament. They've won at Maryland, at VCU, Davidson at home, at Notre Dame, at UNC, Louisville at home, and NC State on the road and at home. So that's an 8-3 record against likely NCAA tournament teams this year. They're a top 25 team in offensive efficiency and a top five team in defensive efficiency. They may leave the tournament early, but that means jack squat as far as whether they've earned the seed they will be given with their accomplishments thus far. I'll concede that if Villanova, Arizona, and Wisconsin win their conference tourneys, then they have legitimate claims to the one seed line with Kentucky. But when we're talking about a scenario like that being necessary to drop UVA to the 2-line, then the overrated rhetoric seems a little much.
SumnerH said:
They won the ACC tournament last year, so I hope you found something else to help set your watch.
Stevie1der said:
No matter how low the expectations are, they've frustratingly underachieved pretty objectively.
Since 2000, they've been beaten by a lower seed 6 times in the ACC tournament and 3 out of 4 times in the NCAA tournament (the one that wasn't an upset was still a first-round loss, just to a higher seed), including being ranked #12 nationally and losing to unranked GaTech in 2001. They've managed just 2 upsets--never in the big dance, never of a ranked team, and never of a team seeded higher than #6 in the ACC. Even their successful ACC tournament last year was followed by yet another NCAA defeat at the hands of a lower seed.
That's 9 upsets against, 2 in favor in the last 15 years.
SumnerH said:
This is impressively disingenuous. Comparing the UVA program since Tony Bennett took over to results that happened 15 years ago? Also it would have been a pretty tall order to not be beaten by a lower seed last year since they were a #1.
SumnerH said:
You've shifted your argument. None of that backs up your initial assertion that UVA is overrated going into tournaments. Losing to a lower seed doesn't somehow retroactively mean they didn't objectively earn the seed they were given, especially in the ACC tournament where seeding is strictly by regular season record. If you mean that people have higher expectations than UVA's deserved, you're probably right on that at some point since 2000. But just to reiterate, when UVA was a one seed last season, a seed that had been objectively earned, a great number of pundits predicted they would be upset by Michigan State. Nowhere in that scenario was there an objective or subjective overrating. They earned the one seed with their play that year and lost to a team that many agreed was finally healthy and much better than their seed indicated. This year they'll either be a low one seed or a high two seed, neither of which would be an objective overrating based on their body of work. And there's no shortage of skeptics in the national or local media that think UVA won't make a deep run into the tournament, so it's not like they're being subjectively overrated going into the tournament either.
In short, you're absolutely right that UVA has probably underperformed through the years (along with pretty much anyone in the ACC not named UNC or DUke), but that doesn't mean the same thing as being a consistently overrated team, which you claimed they were.
A couple of things account for a significant chunk of the difference.
1. ND doesn't concede many shooting fouls. The Irish had the second-lowest FTA/FGA in the country going into the game.
2. ND was ahead late, so UNC started fouling to lengthen the game.
1. ND doesn't concede many shooting fouls. The Irish had the second-lowest FTA/FGA in the country going into the game.
2. ND was ahead late, so UNC started fouling to lengthen the game.
Mr. Wednesday said:
Yeah UNC did foul late so it went from 22 or 24 FTA to 32 at the end. That's still a gulf when UNC was playing inside all night through Brice.
Again it wasn't the only reason ND won, they made 10 threes too of course, but when UNC is such an interior-based team, a FTA bulge that large seems improbable.
Just finished watching the game on tape delay. The officiating was bad in favor of notre dame, which was even more surprising given the unc crowd and their dominance in the paint
Edit: unc's dominance in the paint, that is
Edit: unc's dominance in the paint, that is
The problem with looking at the FT totals is that paint touches aren't an indication of a team being more aggressive. UNC had 9 drives into the paint the entire game, that's where most paint fouls happen, not on straight post ups. ND had 23 drives into the paint, 12 by Grant along.
True but hey we beat them at their place. Would be interesting from a tempo perspective.Greg29fan said:
Offensively I think it was. They made a pile of threes and limited turnovers.
Defensively I thought it was one of their worst efforts all year. Tokoto got destroyed by Dekker and after limiting Kaminsky in the first half he got anything he wanted in the second half, but he was always going to be a tough cover for the bigs.
Next year you have to think is the year if they're going to hoist a banner with this group. Lots of upper classmen and three guys who will be sophomores that should all take a giant leap forward. They need a guy or two, Johnson, Jackson, somebody, to become a killer like May or Hansbrough though. This team just didn't go for the kill shot this year when they had the chance in the second half in games they could have won.
Defensively I thought it was one of their worst efforts all year. Tokoto got destroyed by Dekker and after limiting Kaminsky in the first half he got anything he wanted in the second half, but he was always going to be a tough cover for the bigs.
Next year you have to think is the year if they're going to hoist a banner with this group. Lots of upper classmen and three guys who will be sophomores that should all take a giant leap forward. They need a guy or two, Johnson, Jackson, somebody, to become a killer like May or Hansbrough though. This team just didn't go for the kill shot this year when they had the chance in the second half in games they could have won.
I thought their team defense was very good in the first half and good with some breakdowns in the second. Tokoto had a very bad tournament defensively, I'm sure you've seen the numbers out there on points scored by his match-up: ugly. Which brings me to a broader point: the best version of this team, next year, is Paige, Berry and Jackson starting. The offense those three would provide would outweigh any defensive loss of Tokoto and Freshman to Sophmore year is always the biggest jump defensively.
As for a banner, I'm afraid an ACC championship banner and maybe a Final Four banner are the absolute ceilings with these guys. We have some good players, but not great players. We also have the big investigating hanging over our head, so this is going to be a tough off-season.
As for a banner, I'm afraid an ACC championship banner and maybe a Final Four banner are the absolute ceilings with these guys. We have some good players, but not great players. We also have the big investigating hanging over our head, so this is going to be a tough off-season.
Here is a quote from Brandon Ingram's father, just to further hammer home the point that the academic scandal is going to set this program back (whether it's a little bit back, or a long back, who knows)
Donald Ingram: The first signing date is in November and we were going to decide then. but the academic scandal surfaced again at Carolina and we had some new schools that came on during the summer.
Donald Ingram: The first signing date is in November and we were going to decide then. but the academic scandal surfaced again at Carolina and we had some new schools that came on during the summer.
And you should be, but at least they're the only real competition duke will face before the championship game, should they make it that farDukeSox said:
SuperManny said:
I predicted the solid tournament but wiffed on thinking Okafor would be the factor.
Duke climbs from the 60s to 12 in kenpom's def rankings from the start of the acc tournament to the end of the season. No team ranked outside the top 20 in def has was a title in the kenpom database (since 2004). So yeah, this team was not going to win a title if they played like they did all year. Then something happened, they became a defense-first, offense-second team.
Also duke when 7-2 vs elite 8 teams.
Also duke when 7-2 vs elite 8 teams.
minischwab said:
2-0 vs MSU, 2-0 vs. Wisco, 1-0 vs. Louisville, 1-0 vs. Zags, 1-2 vs. ND. ND really had our number. Aside from us beating them to a pulp in Cameron.
For the fifth time in my life college basketball did not have a season. No games, no tournaments, no memories, nothing. I wish the NCAA would get their shit together so these strike-ridden, lost seasons stop happening.
Edit- that should read fourth time, I forgot the Butler championship when Hayward's shot went in.
Edit- that should read fourth time, I forgot the Butler championship when Hayward's shot went in.
Well 5 is better than 4 so no denying that. I just thankful they have the 4 or most likely Duke and Kentucky would have another 2 apiece.