2014-15 Champions League: the Quixotic Quest to Qualify

[SilasCL]

As some one who follows Anderlecht a bit, I am hoping for an upset in one of the five league route matches, excepting the Napoli - Athletic match. If any of the other favorites lose it would put Anderlecht in pot 3, giving them a much greater chance to either advance or at least parachute into Europa league and make a run there. Their recent run of European football has been pretty dismal and they could use a bit of luck.
 
My Belgian friend who is a serious supporter will probably have a hard time cheering on Standard but it's a necessary evil for him.

 

[sachmoney]

Just a couple of photos. The ground:

Ultras:

Again, it wasn't close to sold out as you can see, but the ultras created a pretty nice environment for the number of people there. In the pano, you can (can't?) see the 50 or so Dnipro folks that made it out.

 

[Titans Bastard]

It's gameday, folks.  Five matches today and five tomorrow.  Today's slate:
 
Red Bull Salzburg vs. Malmö
Steaua Bucharest vs. Ludogorets Razgrad
Copenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Besiktas vs. Arsenal
Napoli vs. Athletic Bilbao
 
For the bored/idle:
 
The first two are on ESPN3.  The last two are on FS1 and FS2.  No love for Copenhagen and Leverkusen.

 

[SoxFanInCali]

Red Bull Salzburg vs. Malmö
Steaua Bucharest vs. Ludogorets Razgrad
Copenhagen vs. Bayer Leverkusen
Besiktas vs. Arsenal
Napoli vs. Athletic Bilbao
 
For the bored/idle:
 
The first two are on ESPN3.  The last two are on FS1 and FS2.  No love for Copenhagen and Leverkusen.

And of course the 4 televised games are 0-0 while Copenhagen-Leverkusen is 2-1 after only 13 minutes.

 

[Titans Bastard]

And of course the 4 televised games are 0-0 while Copenhagen-Leverkusen is 2-1 after only 13 minutes.

 
I was at least hoping for PBP from sachmoney.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Demba Ba almost scored from the kick-off

https://vine.co/v/M30wxgehWJz

 

[Titans Bastard]

First leg:
 
Maribor (SLO) 1-1 Celtic (SCO)
Red Bull Salzburg (AUT) 2-1 Malmö (SWE)
AaB Aalborg (DEN) 1-1 APOEL (CYP)
Steaua București (ROU) 1-0 Ludogorets Razgrad (BUL)
Slovan Bratislava (SVK) 1-1 BATE Borisov (BLR)
 
Nothing is close to resolved in the Champions bracket.
 
 
Beșiktaș (TUR) 0-0 Arsenal (ENG)
Standard Liège (BEL) 0-1 Zenit St. Petersburg (RUS)
Copenhagen (DEN) 2-3 Bayer Leverkusen (GER)
Lille (FRA) 0-1 Porto (POR)
Napoli (ITA) 1-1 Athletic Bilbao (ESP)
 
 
Three away wins means that Zenit, Bayer, and Porto are clearly in the driver's seat.  Arsenal need to be careful about away goals. Athletic-Napoli should be a great one.

 

[sachmoney]

 
I was at least hoping for PBP from sachmoney.

Back in the USA. Unfortunately. Wish I could've stayed in Copenhagen.

 

[Titans Bastard]

No real surprises in the non-Champions path.  Arsenal, Leverkusen, Zenit, and Porto are through.  Athletic Bilbao scored three second half goals to dispatch Napoli 3-1, 4-2 on aggregate in the only matchup without a strong favorite.
 
In the Champions path, APOEL followed up a road draw by thumping AaB Aalborg in Cyprus, advancing 5-1 on aggregate.  BATE Borisov finished off Slovan Bratislava and Maribor beat Celtic in what may or may not be termed an upset.
 
Malmö beat Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 in Sweden today, flipping a 2-1 first leg loss in to 4-2 aggregate victory.  Yet another choke job from RB Salzburg in CL qualifiers.  They've had chances against Malmö, Hapoel Tel Aviv, and Maccabi Haifa over the last five years.  You can't ask for more than that when it comes to qualifying for the group stages.
 
Ludogorets Razgrad and Steaua are going to extra time; Ludo leads 1-0 in Bulgaria.  It's too bad that one of these teams will be eliminated; Ludo would have been seeded along with Steaua if Legia hadn't been thrown out.  They're probably among the best five teams on that side of the bracket.
 
 
EDIT: Malmö deserve props for qualifying despite being unseeded every step of the way.  Admittedly, they got a favorable draw in the 2nd qualifying round in the form of Ventspils (Latvia), who have a decent coefficient by being a regular participant in Europe.  But they went on to knock off Sparta Prague and Red Bull Salzburg, two very tough opponents for a club of their caliber.
 
First Swedish club to make the group stage since Helsingborg in the 2000/01 season.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Crazy game in Bulgaria.  Ludo scored in the 90th minute to send the game to ET.  Ludo's goalkeeper is sent off in the 119th minute, so they'll be using a field player as GK in penalties...

 

[Titans Bastard]

Crazy game in Bulgaria.  Ludo scored in the 90th minute to send the game to ET.  Ludo's goalkeeper is sent off in the 119th minute, so they'll be using a field player as GK in penalties...

 
Ludo's field player just saved a PK.  LOL.  2-2 after three rounds.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Apparently Ludo's "GK" is Romanian defender Cosmin Moti, a longtime former player for Steaua's rival Dinamo Bucharest.  This is awesome.
 
4-4 now after 5 PKs.
 
EDIT: Moti also scored the first PK for Ludo.  Dude is the man.

 

[SoxFanInCali]

And the center half makes the save to win it.  Awesome.

 

[Titans Bastard]

Moti saves another!
 
6-5 -- Ludo advance to the group stage over Steaua.
 
So epic.
 
 
(he could have been called for coming off his line, but....)

 

[swiftaw]

Seedings for tomorrow's draw:
 


Seeding pot 1

•  Real MadridTH CC: 161.542
•  Barcelona CC: 157.542
•  Bayern Munich CC: 154.328
•  Chelsea CC: 140.949
•  Benfica CC: 129.459
•  Atlético Madrid CC: 119.542
•  Arsenal CC: 112.949
•  Porto CC: 105.459

Seeding pot 2

•  Schalke 04 CC: 95.328
•  Borussia Dortmund CC: 82.328
•  Juventus CC: 80.387
•  Paris Saint-Germain CC: 80.300
•  Shakhtar Donetsk CC: 78.193
•  Basel CC: 75.645
•  Zenit Saint Petersburg CC: 73.899
•  Manchester City CC: 72.949

Seeding pot 3

•  Bayer Leverkusen CC: 70.328
•  Olympiacos CC: 67.720
•  CSKA Moscow CC: 66.899
•  Ajax CC: 61.862
•  Liverpool CC: 58.949
•  Sporting CP CC: 58.459
•  Galatasaray CC: 55.340
•  Athletic Bilbao CC: 54.542

Seeding pot 4

•  Anderlecht CC: 50.260
•  Roma CC: 39.887
•  APOEL CC: 37.650
•  BATE Borisov CC: 33.725
•  Ludogorets Razgrad CC: 18.125
•  Maribor CC: 16.200
•  Monaco CC: 11.300
•  Malmö FF CC: 6.265

 
 
Teams from the same league can't be placed in the same group. 

 

[SoxFanInCali]

I'm mentally preparing myself for Liverpool to end up with Barca, PSG, and Roma.

 

[Infield Infidel]

Here's the highlights of that Ludogorets-Steaua match . The end is bonkers
 
http://hoofoot.com/?match=Ludogorets_1_-_0_Steaua_Bucharest_2014_08_27

 

[Infield Infidel]

I'm mentally preparing myself for Liverpool to end up with Barca, PSG, and Roma.

come on now, you might get Madrid, Juve, and Monaco

 

[soxfan121]

Seedings for tomorrow's draw:
 
Seeding pot 1

•  Real MadridTH CC: 161.542
•  Barcelona CC: 157.542
•  Bayern Munich CC: 154.328
•  Chelsea CC: 140.949
•  Benfica CC: 129.459
•  Atlético Madrid CC: 119.542
•  Arsenal CC: 112.949
•  Porto CC: 105.459

Seeding pot 2

•  Schalke 04 CC: 95.328
•  Borussia Dortmund CC: 82.328
•  Juventus CC: 80.387
•  Paris Saint-Germain CC: 80.300
•  Shakhtar Donetsk CC: 78.193
•  Basel CC: 75.645
•  Zenit Saint Petersburg CC: 73.899
•  Manchester City CC: 72.949

Seeding pot 3

•  Bayer Leverkusen CC: 70.328
•  Olympiacos CC: 67.720
•  CSKA Moscow CC: 66.899
•  Ajax CC: 61.862
•  Liverpool CC: 58.949
•  Sporting CP CC: 58.459
•  Galatasaray CC: 55.340
•  Athletic Bilbao CC: 54.542

Seeding pot 4

•  Anderlecht CC: 50.260
•  Roma CC: 39.887
•  APOEL CC: 37.650
•  BATE Borisov CC: 33.725
•  Ludogorets Razgrad CC: 18.125
•  Maribor CC: 16.200
•  Monaco CC: 11.300
•  Malmö FF CC: 6.265

 
 
Teams from the same league can't be placed in the same group. 

 
I love that the Swiss flag is the only one not formatted correctly. How Swiss.

 

[swiftaw]

 
I love that the Swiss flag is the only one not formatted correctly. How Swiss.

Actually it is, the Swiss flag is one of only two national flags that is square by design.

 

[URI]

I'm mentally preparing myself for Liverpool to end up with Barca, PSG, and Roma.

 
The FSG connection with Roma is strong, but Monaco is the devil in that box for me.

 

[mikeford]

I'm mentally preparing myself for Liverpool to end up with Barca, PSG, and Roma.

Meanwhile I'm mentally preparing for an Arsenal, Juve, Lisbon, Monaco group.

 

[Dummy Hoy]

Here's the highlights of that Ludogorets-Steaua match . The end is bonkers
 
http://hoofoot.com/?match=Ludogorets_1_-_0_Steaua_Bucharest_2014_08_27

 
Thank you. that was awesome.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

It's ridiculous that Europa League results can win you so many club coefficient points. Benfica has made the Champions League knockout phase once in the last five years but they have the fifth highest coefficient.

 

[SoxFanInCali]

Getting to the Europa League semis in 2009-10 is the only thing that kept Liverpool out of Pot 4.  That result drops off for next season, so they need to have a decent run in the competition this season just to maintain their ranking.

 

[cjdmadcow]

I'm not too concerned with the outcome of the draw - what will be will be - but I'm pretty sure there's a number of teams in pots 1 & 2 that don't want to draw us.
 
I'd like to avoid Juve & Roma - as much to do with our not so pleasant history with them both - and a trip to Ukraine wouldn't be a bundle of laughs, but aside from that, it's good to be back at the top table.

 

[Conigliaro's Potential]

Pot allocations really ought to be made by some combination of the team's coefficient and the coefficient of the league it comes from - having Monaco as the team with the second-lowest rating is pretty ludicrous if your goal is to produce eight reasonably balanced groups. (Of course, maybe that's not the goal?)

 

[swiftaw]

Pot allocations really ought to be made by some combination of the team's coefficient and the coefficient of the league it comes from - having Monaco as the team with the second-lowest rating is pretty ludicrous if your goal is to produce eight reasonably balanced groups. (Of course, maybe that's not the goal?)

Part of the club coefficient calculation is the association coefficient, so it is included.

 

[soxfan121]

Part of the club coefficient calculation is the association coefficient, so it is included.

 
Exactly. How else does "eliminated in February every year" Arsenal deserve Pot 1 status otherwise?

 

[Titans Bastard]

Part of the club coefficient calculation is the association coefficient, so it is included.

 
Exactly.  Monaco's coefficient is the baseline that any French club would have.  They've got nothing added on top of that because they haven't been in Europe for so long.
 
It's a system that hurts leagues that have more parity and don't send the same set of clubs to Europe year after year.  On the other hand, it rewards teams for consistently doing well in Europe.  A club like Monaco at the bottom of Pot 4 is an example of the shortcomings of the system, but I don't think it's possible to build a ranking system that works perfectly every time.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

Exactly. How else does "eliminated in February every year" Arsenal deserve Pot 1 status otherwise?

Zing.

Actually the league component of the coefficient is very small.

 

[Titans Bastard]

 
Exactly. How else does "eliminated in February every year" Arsenal deserve Pot 1 status otherwise?

 
Arsenal's team coefficient is 112.949.  Of these points, 16.949 came from England's country coefficient.  Arsenal would still be in Pot 1, even if you didn't take away the country contribution to the coefficient of the other clubs in the CL pots.
 
Arsenal benefits from being in the Champions League every season and doing well enough to advance out of the group stage (=lots of coefficient points).  And they continue to benefit from their decent-but-not-overwhelming success by being in Pot 1, getting an easier draw as a result, making it simpler to win some games in the group, reach the R16, and continue the cycle.
 
Clubs in Pot 2 like Dortmund, Juventus, PSG, and Man City missed out on one European season in the last five years.  Arsenal didn't.  It's as simple as that.

 

[soxfan121]

Way to step on the joke, TB. ;-)
 
That said, great post that explains how it works clearly. 

 

[sachmoney]

I'm not sure Arsenal is under a threat of losing Pot 1 status this year, but if Arsenal continues to make early exits in the knockout stages (as is very likely this year), I'd imagine some of the Pot 2 clubs would be creeping up on us.

 

[Vinho Tinto]

AS Monaco was in the French 2nd division two years ago. They haven't competed in Europe since 2005. Where they are is just fine. 

 

[Titans Bastard]

Way to step on the joke, TB. ;-)
 
That said, great post that explains how it works clearly. 

 
As your avatar says, let's party.
 

I'm not sure Arsenal is under a threat of losing Pot 1 status this year, but if Arsenal continues to make early exits in the knockout stages (as is very likely this year), I'd imagine some of the Pot 2 clubs would be creeping up on us.

 
They are currently 10th in the five-year ranking that includes the current season.  They will very likely pass Valencia, who are not in Europe this year, and will pass Manchester United if they reach the R16.  If Atlético and Schalke have poor campaigns, they are also vulnerable to being leapfrogged as well.
 
On the flip slide, a strong run from Dortmund, Porto, and/or PSG could see Arsenal fall behind them in the rankings.  But still, these are just the seeding rankings.  For Arsenal to fall out of Pot 1, they need to slide out of the top 8 and have at least eight teams ahead of them qualify for the CL group stage.  That doesn't always happen, as we see from Valencia and ManU this year.
 
The bottom line is that you get four points just for making the group stage and five points for making the knockout rounds.  In addition to that, you get two points for a win and one for a draw.  So just reaching the R16 with regularity brings you at least 9 bonus points + ~7 match points (assuming something like a 3-1-2 record to get out of the groups).  Using 16 points as a per-season baseline, plus England's five-year country coefficient contribution of ~17, we're looking at 16*5 + 17 = 97 coefficient points.  That's borderline Pot 1 as it is, and add in a few dominant group stage performances (10-12 pts), a QF performance (1 bonus pt + 2-4 pts in R16 + 0-2 in QF), and the assumption that all R16 eliminations aren't home-and-away losses (extra 1-2 points per season), maintaining Pot 1 is easy without making deep runs.
 
Of course, if you crash out of the GS and have a bad season, maybe you slip to Pot 2.  Then you aren't avoiding Real Madrid and Bayern Munich anymore and all of a sudden life gets a bit riskier in the GS.  It can accelerate a team's declining fortunes in Europe if, in fact, they are declining in quality.  (Not saying I expect that for Arsenal in particular, but this can happen.)

 

[Titans Bastard]

AS Monaco was in the French 2nd division two years ago. They haven't competed in Europe since 2005. Where they are is just fine. 

 
FWIW, the team seeding system used to be influenced by country coefficients much more strongly.  Right now teams get 20% of the country coefficient, which has been the case since 2008.  Prior to that, it was 33%.  And prior to 2004, it was 50%.
 
Monaco's seeding coefficient would be 150% higher in 2004 just because they'd have half of France's 56.5 points instead of 20%.  They still wouldn't be close to Pot 3 in the Champions League, but it would make a huge difference in seeding fortunes for a club like them in the Europa League - Pot 4 to likely Pot 2.
 
It was not a beloved system for the mid-sized countries of UEFA.  Even if you had a solid track record in Europe, you'd still be liable to be seeded behind frickin' Hull City.

 

[coremiller]

Clubs in Pot 2 like Dortmund, Juventus, PSG, and Man City missed out on one European season in the last five years.  Arsenal didn't.  It's as simple as that.

I'm not sure Arsenal is under a threat of losing Pot 1 status this year, but if Arsenal continues to make early exits in the knockout stages (as is very likely this year), I'd imagine some of the Pot 2 clubs would be creeping up on us.

 
For Dortmund, PSG, and City, their one season missing out on European football was 09/10, so that will drop out of the calculation next season.  But Arsenal's consistency makes them hard to catch.  Even discounting the 09/10 season, Arsenal is on 87.364, Dortmund 78.7116, and PSG 77.3, with City and Juve well behind.  If Arsenal can get out of the Group Stage again (which has earned them ~21 points the past few seasons), Dortmund or PSG will probably have to at least make the Final to catch them.  A semis appearance might do it if the country coefficients also shift significantly against Arsenal.

 

[Luis Taint]

Fox sucks, I thought this was supposed to be on FS1.

 

[Turrable]

Streaming here http://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/season=2015/draws/round=2000548/drawcentre/index.html?v=1409240745941

 

[Turrable]

I'm gonna hate myself if I actually watch this whole stupid show

 

[SocrManiac]

I've watched two minutes and I hate myself already.

 

[Luis Taint]

This girl is a step down from Fernanda Lima

 

[Luis Taint]

Oh come on

 

[Luis Taint]

Arsenal is in group D

 

[Rustjive]

Aaaaand group C already looks like cake and group F already looks brutal. Of course, every pot 1 team was looking to avoid PSG so it was going to be bad whereever they were...

 

[Luis Taint]

Arsenal, Dortmund

 

[Infield Infidel]

Why was Man City not eligible for A or B?

 

[Vinho Tinto]

England vs Germany and Portugal vs USSR in two groups.

 

[MiracleOfO2704]

Why was Man City not eligible for A or B?

They were, UEFA just likes confusing people.