2013 Sox: Retrospective 5 Years Later; Lightning or Something More?

TheoShmeo

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With the 2018 Sox getting ready for October baseball, there is at least one strong commonality with the last Sox WS champ: It feels like it just might be their year. Again. Sure, there are some warts and worry signs. Is the pen good enough? The record against AL playoff teams is pedestrian. We’re Sox fans so the last two games bother us more than they might affect another more measured fan base. But the win total and nature of many of those wins, as well as their loaded line-up, gives me the same optimistic feeling I had in 2013 (and 2007 for that matter; 2004 is the very definition of Sui Generis).

For me, any invocation of the 2013 Red Sox brings to mind a somewhat sore side topic. It’s become popular 5 years later to conclude that that team was somewhat lucky and caught “lightning in a bottle.”

The folks who say that point to:

- last place finishes in 2012 and 2014, and the 2011 collapse being all around it;

- the marathon juju;

- that they won anything with such a mediocre manager;
and

- that every move Cherington made seemed to work out in that one year, and that one year only.

None of that resonates much with me, and I point to:

- to me, “lightning in a bottle” means a generally mediocre team gets hot at the right time and rides the wave through the tourney; the 2006 82 win Cardinals are the best example I can think of, though I know there are others;

- this Sox team won 95 games and was very strong virtually wire to wire, and was great in October; and

- very few of the players, and I think none of them actually, enjoyed career years; maybe Koji is an exception.

There’s no denying that the Marathon affected and inspired them. At least, I have great trouble believing that it did not. But so what? That alone doesn’t make the team lucky etc. The 2003 Cowboy Up Sox and the 2004 Idiots were likely driven in part by the desire to be the first ones to break through. Said differently, having additional motivation doesn’t make a great team one who catches lightning somehow.

Anyway, I know this topic is a not given to hard boiled analysis and maybe it will not get much traction as a result. But how this team gets viewed by sox fans and media has fascinated me, so I thought I’d raise it here on a rainy NJ morning, as the countdown to, hopefully, two wins over Houston today continues.
 

bosockboy

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Specifically, the Phillips HR felt a lot like the Carp grand slam at the Trop. Special seasons seem to have huge moments from unlikely sources.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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There are no style points in baseball, even if the team overachieved and were beneficial of some luck (which I believe that it did in 2013), they still won the World Series.

That's the only thing that matters.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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They lost their first two closers for the season, and their best starter in June(it's easy to forget that Buchholz was arguably the best pitcher in the AL that season until he got hurt). They lost Andrew Miller.
And yet, they never lost more than three games in a row all season, and they never got to an elimination game in the playoffs, against three really good opponents.

They were really freaking good.
 

Wallball Tingle

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Until last season, they had the highest team BABIP of all time, I believe (.328, COL got .332 last year). If that was skill, awesome! If that made them the luckiest team of all time to that point...awesome!
 

jaytftwofive

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They got rid of A-Gon and Crawford the year before so it looked like rebuilding. Role players like Gomes, Victorino and Stephen Drew came up big so in many ways it was lightning in a bottle. And I really believe the Tigers were the better team. I mean look at that pitching staff: Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Sanchez and Fister. And they got a big break when Leyland made a major blunder in Game 2 ALCS, not keeping in the lefty (Alburquerque I think) and brought in Benoit to face Ortiz. Major blunder. All the commentators said he blew it. But.... I'll take it. When they beat the Tigers(Thank you Shane) I was so overwhelmed I buried my head on the floor and almost cried. It was just...... I can't believe this. 69 wins last year and now the pennant. It was so joyful in many ways. 2004 was faith rewarded. 2007 was it won't be another 86 years smarmy Yankee fans, but 2013 was probably more special then 2007. Oh.... Yay Pats!
 
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gedman211

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It's easy to over-romanticize that team, and to wax poetic about this sport that is so steeped in history, myth and tradition. But the chemistry of that team post-marathon was indisputable. Napoli's homer off peak Verlander was one of many Disney-esque episodes that make that team season seem like a fairy tale. Victorino's Bob Marley sing-alongs. Koji Uehara's cartoonish celebrations. And of course Papi was thrust upon us from Mt. Olympus. In the end, it may have been the mundane reality of a rotten Tigers' bullpen that charted the course of history, as it had several times before.
 

trs

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I know this has been discussed on this board many times before, and I'm not sure if I'm adding anything to what has already been said in other threads, but luck has quite a bit to do with it. Baseball has the most natural competitive balance in so much that the best teams in the league rarely win more than 60% of the games and the worst teams rarely lose more than 60% of their games. That's simply not the case in other leagues where winning percentages in the 70s are much more common. Baseball also is a relatively low-scoring sport compared to basketball and football (not hockey and soccer, I know) and can theoretically be taken over by a stud pitcher. The end result is that in any given game, there is much less certainty that the "better team" wins.

Then when you realize that in baseball, a series victory requires only 4 wins (or 2.4% of a schedule), whereas that number is twice as high in hockey or basketball and 3x higher in football, the confidence I think would decrease significantly that the first to 4 wins between two teams in baseball will consistently be the "better team" in terms of performance over a 162 game season. Add to this that in each game the confidence that the "better team" wins is less in baseball than in other sports, we end up with the MLB playoff system spitting out "unlikely winners" more frequently than the other major sports. Maybe? Some pretty fuzzy math there, I realize.

I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, but perhaps there's an argument for a best of 9 or even 11 series if we want less randomness concerning which teams survive the playoffs? I think I somewhat like the randomness, and I suppose we don't need a "Mr. December."
 
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m0ckduck

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I tend to fold the story of the 2013 Sox into a larger narrative about baseball teams thriving after hiring new managers and/or a significant roster shuffling. It seems only natural, since the job of being a professional baseball player involves such large doses of tedium, that players would respond well to an injection of novelty. It also seems to me that these teams that outperform expectations with their new manager/roster tend to regress the following seasons as the novelty wears off.

However, all of this is anecdotal observation. It would be interesting to see data on this, but I haven't found anything very credible. Plus, it's difficult to weed out external factors (e.g. teams tend to couple the decision to hire a new manager with the realization that their roster stinks and needs improving).
 

Niastri

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I don't think this is necessarily a bad thing, but perhaps there's an argument for a best of 9 or even 11 series if we want less randomness and which teams survive the playoffs? I think I somewhat like the randomness, and I suppose we don't need a "Mr. December."
Getting rid of travel days that prolong the postseason would help them achieve longer series. They could cram more games into the same calendar period of time. No Mr. December needed.

It would also have the added effect of making the deeper teams that win more games in the regular season more likely to win championships. The added rest days allows things like three starts in seven games for a teams Ace, or for the best relief pitchers to pitch five games in a seven game series.

Playing nine games in ten days instead of seven in ten would change the complexion of the postseason series dramatically.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
They got rid of A-Gon and Crawford the year before so it looked like rebuilding. Role players like Gomes, Victorino and Stephen Drew came up big so in many ways it was lightning in a bottle. And I really believe the Tigers were the better team. I mean look at that pitching staff: Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello, Sanchez and Fister. And they got a big break when Leyland made a major blunder in Game 2 ALCS, not keeping in the lefty (Alburquerque I think) and brought in Benoit to face Ortiz. Major blunder. All the commentators said he blew it. But.... I'll take it. When they beat the Tigers(Thank you Shane) I was so overwhelmed I buried my head on the floor and almost cried. It was just...... I can't believe this. 69 wins last year and now the pennant. It was so joyful in many ways. 2004 was faith rewarded. 2007 was it won't be another 86 years smarmy Yankee fans, but 2013 was probably more special then 2007. Oh.... Yay Pats!
Alburquerque's a righty. And Benoit had a reverse split (slight, over his whole career, but large in 2013). Maybe the second-guessing was about the fact that Benoit had thrown 22 pitches the night before? Really, though, it sounds like standard 20/20 hindsight. Benoit was their best reliever. Leyland would probably have caught a lot more flak if he hadn't brought him in in that situation.
 

lexrageorge

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I don't believe the talk radio nonsense that the 2013 title was a fluke and therefore should be discounted. That team laid an honest to goodness beatdown over some of the best teams in the majors. The fact that they fell to last place the following 2 seasons was somewhat disappointing, in that you always hope to see your favorite team have success. But that fact does not make the 2013 World Series title any more of a fluke than that of the 2015 KC Royals, who fell to 0.500 the following season, a fall that is still continuing.

Yes, the Sox had a number of things go just right for them, in particular the offseason pickups. Several key players would enjoy their last productive seasons in their careers: Drew, Victorino, Salty, Nava, Middlebrooks, Gomes, Buchholz, Carp. Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, and Ellsbury (who would never again steal anywhere close to 52 bases in his career) remained healthy all season. But that same script could be said for just about any World Series winner: look at the 2009 Yankees, for instance; no one in New York puts an asterisk on that title.

Finally, I think the playoff format is fine as it is. There are logistic challenges that come with shuttling teams between two coasts that are not worked around by simply removing travel days. And there is already enough wear and tear on pitchers and players in those games. Yeah, there are some unexpected outcomes, but underdogs winning a playoff series is a feature, not a bug.
 

Saints Rest

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I think the best comp for the 2013 Sox is the 2001 Pats.
  • 9/11 : Marathon bombing (I know that 9/11 wasn't in this area, but Joe Andruzzi, OG, had brothers who were FDNY; plus the whole "we are all Patriots"
  • similar batch of mid-level to bargain basement FA signings
  • similar set of low expectations coming into the season
  • similar set of miracle wins
 

TFisNEXT

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Once you get beyond the argument of "was it lucky that all those veterans stayed healthy?" (Yes it probably was), then there wasn't a ton of luck about that team. The BABIP says they received a little aid there but even if you regress that some, the team was really freaking good. 97 wins is pretty robust.
 

BuellMiller

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Alburquerque's a righty. And Benoit had a reverse split (slight, over his whole career, but large in 2013). Maybe the second-guessing was about the fact that Benoit had thrown 22 pitches the night before? Really, though, it sounds like standard 20/20 hindsight. Benoit was their best reliever. Leyland would probably have caught a lot more flak if he hadn't brought him in in that situation.
Yeah. Their lefty in the BP was Smyly (well him and the legendary Phil Coke), who had just walked Ellsbury. The Red Sox then had two righties up in Victorino and Pedroia. Technically, they could have gone with Smyly for those two and then Ortiz, but Albuquerque was probably the right move to try to get those two righties out before even getting to Ortiz as the tying run ... (he K'd Victorino and then gave up an opposite field hit to Pedroia).
 

Max Power

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I was sitting in the bleachers near the Tiger's bullpen and I'm almost certain Coke was warming when Leyland elected to bring in Benoit instead. It seemed like an odd move at the time. Coke wasn't anything great, but why was he even warming if he wasn't going to come in and face Ortiz?
 

curly2

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I know his 3.6 WAR is way, way down the list for all-time seasons by a player, but as far as performing his role, Koji Uehara's season in 2013 is one of the best I've ever seen by anyone.

Checking out his stats that year, it looks like a misprint. 74.1 IP, 33 hits, 9 walks and 101 strikeouts.

And he did it all with an 89 MPH fastball. Koji was simply amazing.
 

Al Zarilla

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I know his 3.6 WAR is way, way down the list for all-time seasons by a player, but as far as performing his role, Koji Uehara's season in 2013 is one of the best I've ever seen by anyone.

Checking out his stats that year, it looks like a misprint. 74.1 IP, 33 hits, 9 walks and 101 strikeouts.

And he did it all with an 89 MPH fastball. Koji was simply amazing.
Relievers get little love in the WAR game. The great Rivera's best seasons (BWAR) were 5.0. 4.3, 4.2 and 4.0. So, Koji was in excellent company.
 

Saints Rest

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I know his 3.6 WAR is way, way down the list for all-time seasons by a player, but as far as performing his role, Koji Uehara's season in 2013 is one of the best I've ever seen by anyone.

Checking out his stats that year, it looks like a misprint. 74.1 IP, 33 hits, 9 walks and 101 strikeouts.

And he did it all with an 89 MPH fastball. Koji was simply amazing.
Averaging roughly 8 pitches per IP.
Fast innings, with nary a worry in sight.
He was the closest thing to perfection from a closer, I think any of us will ever see.
 

jaytftwofive

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Alburquerque's a righty. And Benoit had a reverse split (slight, over his whole career, but large in 2013). Maybe the second-guessing was about the fact that Benoit had thrown 22 pitches the night before? Really, though, it sounds like standard 20/20 hindsight. Benoit was their best reliever. Leyland would probably have caught a lot more flak if he hadn't brought him in in that situation.
Oh he is . Then who is the lefty they took out? I forget.
 

reggiecleveland

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There is always some luck. But, guys stepped up and had confidence. I think the marathon bombing was a big part of that. I also think JF suffered, for no fault of his own that the team did not feel the same way the next year and the emotional letdown.

The Canadian college hoops team I played and then coached for a similar run. They were a very good team, and tragically they lost an up and coming star to cancer. The team drew together and won the title the next year, the only championship the team ever won. Each and every guy say there was special bond, that allowed all tiny things to go away and be their best.

http://www.cisblog.ca/2008/12/basketball-brennan-jarrett-1989-2008.html
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/fighting-to-keep-the-spirit/article1343209/
https://www.canadawest.org/sports/mbkb/2015-16/releases/20160310huskies
 

pantsparty

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- very few of the players, and I think none of them actually, enjoyed career years; maybe Koji is an exception.
I think you could argue that some of the 2013 players had career years relative to where they were in their careers. Napoli, Drew, Victorino, and Nava all had WARs that were significantly better than their previous years at ages where players don't usually tend to get better.
 

EricFeczko

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The 2013 red sox caught lightning in a bottle. Even Ryan Lavarnway (career 57+ wRC) hit at the rate of an average player (104 wRC+ in 82 PA, or roughly 18 percent of his career). Jose Iglesias hit better than at any point since his second year as a minor leaguer.

The list of position players that hit above their career average by more than 10 wRC+ is long and contains 7 starters; roughly two thirds of red sox PA came from these players:

Shane Victorino
Jacoby Ellsbury (fine he was 8, not 10).
Stephen Drew
Jarod Saltalamacchia
Daniel Nava
Mike Napoli (more like 9 than 10)
David Ortiz
Mike Carp
Jose Iglesias
Ryan Lavarnway

The list of position players that hit below their career average by 10 wRC+ is much shorter -- none of them had more than 116 PA:

David Ross (more like 7 than 10)
Xander Bogaerts
JBJ
Brandon Snyder
Brock Holt