2013 Jets: Rex back for 2014

[Shelterdog]

 
 
Smart move for the Jets. Very low risk...potentially moderate reward. I think Belichick can run circles around RR, but on this one, I think it was a good move by Rex  and Co.

 
I'm not sure I'd call it a risk but there is an opportunity cost to having Reed on your 53--you're losing a roster spot and that's valuable. It doesn't matter quite as much for the Jets because the back end of their roster sucks so hard (there's no pain in cutting Ricky Sapp, a fourth year 27 year old pro with bad knees who's played 19 defensive snaps this year) but those 53rd men develop into Kyle Arringtons and Ryan Wendells sometimes.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
 
Smart move for the Jets. Very low risk...potentially moderate reward. I think Belichick can run circles around RR, but on this one, I think it was a good move by Rex  and Co.

The player sucks.  Why is it a good move?  Because his name is Ed Reed?  If he signed with the Patriots, people would be finding ways to justify it but they'd be wrong.  He's got nothing left.  Doesn't it say something that the team whose GM has fawned over him for years decided not to sign him?  Christ, Belichick talked the same about Ochocinco and got him at the end of his career too and look how that turned out.  Now, he has the same chance to do it with Reed and declines.  Do you think there's a reason?  It's because he doesn't help the football team out in any way.  He plays no special teams anymore so he'd just be there to spell McCourty because he's a pure free safety.  Well, guess how many snaps Devin McCourty has not been on the field for?  7.  That's right.  Devin McCourty has played 99% of the total defensive snaps in 2013(660/667).  Reed's only role would be to come in if DMC had to drop down to corner.  At this point in his career, Ed Reed helps a football team on defense in the way Tavon Wilson currently does.  That way is not much at all.  At least Wilson plays some special teams.
 
That being said, Reed will have 7 picks and lead the Jets to the Super Bowl.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Ed Reed is 35. He is banged up and slow. If his name were Vlaka Malaka no one would give a shit. Maybe Rex gets something out of him. I remain skeptical and unmoved. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Ed Reed is 35. He is banged up and slow. If his name were Vlaka Malaka no one would give a shit. Maybe Rex gets something out of him. I remain skeptical and unmoved. 

 
I'll take Vlaka Malaka on a vet min. He can fill in for McCourty and punt when Allen gets cut.

 

[soxfan121]

Willie Mays had the Mets; Ed Reed has the Jets. 
 
(yes, I'm making this joke in every thread I can.)

 

[singaporesoxfan]

What does that mean about Kevin Garnett and the Nets?

 

[soxfan121]

What does that mean about Kevin Garnett and the Nets?

 
I think you've got BINGO. Tell Troy Brown.

 

[Dogman]

What does that mean about Kevin Garnett and the Nets?

 
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLLLLLLLEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE?

 

[crystalline]

  Well, guess how many snaps Devin McCourty has not been on the field for?  7.  That's right.  Devin McCourty has played 99% of the total defensive snaps in 2013(660/667).  Reed's only role would be to come in if DMC had to drop down to corner. 

That being said, Reed will have 7 picks and lead the Jets to the Super Bowl.

Also, after this post, if McCourty gets hurt I am holding you responsible.

 

[Devizier]

I predict that Reed will play 20 snaps over the next two weeks, gets cut, and the Jets re-sign the scrub that they cut for his spot. Everyone wins.

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Ed Reed liked the idea of playing for Rex and NY because their system was familiar to him.  You know what else must seem familiar at this point?  Playing for a team with a shitty offense. 

 

[tims4wins]

He must also be accustomed to giving up 30+ per week

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Love changing the Jets thread title after a loss (tx to a TGG poster):   http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=79578

 

[tims4wins]

Dan Dierdorf actually came up with the Dave and Busted line during the game

 

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

Love changing the Jets thread title after a loss (tx to a TGG poster):   http://forums.theganggreen.com/showthread.php?t=79578

Like Vince Lombardi said, "Take the team to the arcade".

That's a great post.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

From a TGG thread on D&B...
 
In that game where you throw a miniature football through a hole 10 feet away, Geno was 0-47

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

All jokes aside, Jets are about to face the following teams (my prediction):

• @ Ravens (L)
• vs Dolphins (W)
• vs. Raiders (W)
• @ Panthers (L) << smells like another blowout
• vs. Browns (W)
• @ Dolphins (L)

that puts them at exactly 8-8. Even if you sweep the Phins or continue the alternating W/L pattern with a win at Ravens, that gives them 9-7 and decent chance of being out of the playoffs. 
 
I tell you this -- no matter how the Jets finish this year, you have to have long-term concerns for Geno. A TGG poster did a good job tracking down stats for notable recent rookie QBs at similar points in respective careers:
 

 
Hmm - so after the debacle today, Geno among this particular group is:

• 2nd worst Comp % (1% better than Tannehill)
• Middling total yards passing, YPA, and AYPA (although 5.8 is a tough number for any QB)
• Worst TD/INT ratio at 8/16 
• Worst INT % at 5.4%
• Worst QB rating
• 2nd most total TO with 20 (16 INT/4 FL)

Basically a rookie Tannehill with worse decision making skills, or poor man's Newton w/o the ceiling. We've discussed what rookie QB numbers could mean here and elsewhere on BbtL, but unless Geno makes a big jump during off-season it won't matter how Ryan's defense plays. 
 
In other words, a slow or poor developing Geno means no SB appearance for the Jets for considerable future, and most likely another high pick dedicated for the never-ending search for the next Namath.

 

[Super Nomario]

The completion % in that chart are wrong, SSF. 235/412 is 57%, not 65%, and a lot of the other numbers aren't right, either.

 

[WayBackVazquez]

Cam Newton had 11 TDs against 9 INT through eight games in his rookie season, so I'm pretty sure he never had 9 TD and 16 INT.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

That's what happens when you take a TGG poster's data w/o double checking. Lesson learned.

 

[TheoShmeo]

The Dave and Buster's story will get overplayed and overdone this week in NY.  And that's a very good thing.  The more, the merrier, especially with a pissed off Ravens team waiting for them in Baltimore. 
 
But I have some trouble buying that the Bills players used it for motivation and that actually mattered on Sunday.  Maybe they did but it doesn't sound right to me.  I hope I'm wrong.  
 
That said, I don't have any trouble believing that not using the night before for whatever the regularly scheduled Saturday night meetings normally accomplish was, at minimum, not a positive for the players.  I also have no trouble believing that taking players out of their normal routine, especially after a bye week when the normal routine is already challenged, was not a positive.
 
The Jets' record after wins over the past two years and stunts like that one confirm what we've known about Rexy for a long time: The man is cut out to be a defensive coordinator and not a head coach.

 

[jsinger121]

The Jets are 1-4 after the bye in the Rex Ryan era. That is pathetic.

 

[tims4wins]

Jets are also 1-10 following a win the last two years. Also pathetic. Team can't stand prosperity.

 

[Tony C]

That is pathetic. To give the Bills credit, they haven't made a big deal about the Dave & Busted thing. Just scanned through the Jets' ESPN page and, one, boy is Rich Cimini a homer -- Rich, the Jets aren't inconsisent, they're mediocre. He's Rex Ryan-esque in making them sound like a miracle team that then disappoints. No. They are what they are: a classic overachieving team that has won some squeakers and been blown out in many of their losses, giving them a W-L record that is better than their team is.
 
To me the interesting question is if Idzik will replace Ryan or not. You have to give Rex credit: he's a great DC and the Jets play tough as nails in close games and he deserves credit for that. Cimini gave him an A- grade for the season and I can see the justification for that. That said, if you're Idzik you have to ask the question: is Ryan the guy who can take me to the Super Bowl? To me the answer is easy: no, so he has to be fired. You can't have a HC who, as great as he is defensively, has nothing to offer on the other side of the ball (and who is responsible for some awful hires at OC). You can't have a coach who is a great motivator, but also is way too emotional and has a team that tracks his up-and-down emotions. It'd be a tough call if I was Idzik, because of Ryan's real strengths and that he can out-coach many guys who have HC jobs, but he is a bit like his dad in not really been suitable for the HC job if the aim is to be more than scrappy but actually be consistently elite.

 

[Super Nomario]

To me the interesting question is if Idzik will replace Ryan or not. You have to give Rex credit: he's a great DC and the Jets play tough as nails in close games and he deserves credit for that. Cimini gave him an A- grade for the season and I can see the justification for that. That said, if you're Idzik you have to ask the question: is Ryan the guy who can take me to the Super Bowl? To me the answer is easy: no, so he has to be fired. You can't have a HC who, as great as he is defensively, has nothing to offer on the other side of the ball (and who is responsible for some awful hires at OC). You can't have a coach who is a great motivator, but also is way too emotional and has a team that tracks his up-and-down emotions. It'd be a tough call if I was Idzik, because of Ryan's real strengths and that he can out-coach many guys who have HC jobs, but he is a bit like his dad in not really been suitable for the HC job if the aim is to be more than scrappy but actually be consistently elite.

This is almost exactly the sort of thing I would hear about Pete Carroll as recently as 2008 or so. I think Ryan deserves criticism for the offensive performance, but he's also had pretty terrible skill players on that side of the ball. Smith is a rookie throwing to probably the worst receiving corps in football. The offensive coaching probably hasn't been great, but no amount of coaching could turn that into a respectable unit.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Ryan has been in place since 2009 and has never been higher than 13th in points scored.  We don't really know how much personnel input he has had along the way, but it's certainly a lot more than 'zero'.    Isn't the better starting place "there is no evidence Ryan is any good at assessing offensive player or coordinator talent" at this point?

 

[Super Nomario]

Ryan has been in place since 2009 and has never been higher than 13th in points scored.  We don't really know how much personnel input he has had along the way, but it's certainly a lot more than 'zero'.    Isn't the better starting place "there is no evidence Ryan is any good at assessing offensive player or coordinator talent" at this point?

I don't disagree, but this leads me to "Rex needs help on the offensive side of the ball" rather than "Rex can't be a HC." Maybe he refuses to cede any authority on the offensive side of the ball, in which case you have to fire him, but if I were GM I'd try to make it work.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I don't disagree, but this leads me to "Rex needs help on the offensive side of the ball" rather than "Rex can't be a HC." Maybe he refuses to cede any authority on the offensive side of the ball, in which case you have to fire him, but if I were GM I'd try to make it work.

 
Perhaps, but my point was that there's zero data or evidence that the former is more likely to be true than the latter.  He's been in place a while, with multiple OCs, and been pretty bad the entire time offensively.  Without knowing a lot more about the personnel and OC engagement, we just don't have much of an idea whether he's able to be a good HC or not, seems to me.
 
But sure, it could be if you have a great OC in place AND a different philosophy AND he will actually defer to the OC it might work.  I just have no idea what really goes on there.
 
Just to go back to our offseason discussion, your argument in this thread is why I don't agree with your Parcells assessment then---I do think coordinators can matter a lot, and we have to look at the best data around to see whether in a particular case they are or not.

 

[TheoShmeo]

That is pathetic. To give the Bills credit, they haven't made a big deal about the Dave & Busted thing. Just scanned through the Jets' ESPN page and, one, boy is Rich Cimini a homer -- Rich, the Jets aren't inconsisent, they're mediocre. He's Rex Ryan-esque in making them sound like a miracle team that then disappoints. No. They are what they are: a classic overachieving team that has won some squeakers and been blown out in many of their losses, giving them a W-L record that is better than their team is.
 
To me the interesting question is if Idzik will replace Ryan or not. You have to give Rex credit: he's a great DC and the Jets play tough as nails in close games and he deserves credit for that. Cimini gave him an A- grade for the season and I can see the justification for that. That said, if you're Idzik you have to ask the question: is Ryan the guy who can take me to the Super Bowl? To me the answer is easy: no, so he has to be fired. You can't have a HC who, as great as he is defensively, has nothing to offer on the other side of the ball (and who is responsible for some awful hires at OC). You can't have a coach who is a great motivator, but also is way too emotional and has a team that tracks his up-and-down emotions. It'd be a tough call if I was Idzik, because of Ryan's real strengths and that he can out-coach many guys who have HC jobs, but he is a bit like his dad in not really been suitable for the HC job if the aim is to be more than scrappy but actually be consistently elite.

Leave it to the NY Post to find those making it kind of a big deal.

“Me personally, I feel it was disrespectful. I take my nephew to Dave & Busters,’’ Bills defensive end Mario Williams told The Post.
 
“What were they thinking?’’ another member of Bills told The Post. “I can understand if the team was tight and needed a break to loosen up, but they were coming off a bye week.’’
 

http://nypost.com/2013/11/18/dave-busters-trip-looks-bad-after-buffalo-beating/

 

[Shelterdog]

I don't disagree, but this leads me to "Rex needs help on the offensive side of the ball" rather than "Rex can't be a HC." Maybe he refuses to cede any authority on the offensive side of the ball, in which case you have to fire him, but if I were GM I'd try to make it work.

 
I agree.
 
I think the overaching theme to why the Jets have struggled offensively in the Ryan era is that they're schiziophrenic: for a couple of weeks they try to be a smashmouth team and when that doesn't work they try to air it out and if that flounders they go to a balanced attack but they add a bunch of random wildcat and options plays.  I think they want to be a gameplan-type team but then they've consistently had pretty high amonts of turnover at the  skill positions  and they never put a strong emphasis on getting the kind of smart veterans who can adapt to a very new game plan week to week.  (It's also hard to be a gameplan offense when you have shitty, stupid quarterbacks who need to be managed). You've got to have excellent coaching and good talent for a game-plan driven system to work, and it has worked for them on defense but they don't have either the Joes or the Xs and Os to make it consistently work offensively.
 
There's a new book coming out about the Jets' 2011 season,Collision Low Crossers, and apparently it has a lot about Rex (and the defense's) interaction with the offense.  From what I've heard (1) Shotty didn't listen to the defensive coaching staff much (which really burned the defensive coaches when he ignored their advice on attacking the Ravens, where they'd all coached) and (2) Rex gives kind of contradictory directions: we're going to be a smashmouth power team but also make sure to give each of Mason, Plaxico and Holmes a ton of touches each game.   http://www.amazon.com/Collision-Low-Crossers-Turbulent-Football/dp/0316196797
 
Here's a link to an article based on the book: http://www.mensjournal.com/magazine/print-view/how-a-football-team-falls-apart-20131018

 

[wutang112878]

 
Perhaps, but my point was that there's zero data or evidence that the former is more likely to be true than the latter.  He's been in place a while, with multiple OCs, and been pretty bad the entire time offensively.  Without knowing a lot more about the personnel and OC engagement, we just don't have much of an idea whether he's able to be a good HC or not, seems to me.
 
But sure, it could be if you have a great OC in place AND a different philosophy AND he will actually defer to the OC it might work.  I just have no idea what really goes on there.
 
 

 
Is there a reason you are emphasizing the cooks but not the groceries?  Ryan has had Sanchez and Smith as his QBs, so at the most important position on offense he has had some awful players to work with.  Maybe he was involved selecting Sanchez, so maybe he is a coach that cant pick QBs, but I would argue that overall he hasnt had great offensive talent to work with.  In his first 3 years he was middle of the road offensively in terms of points, and the past few years they have just sucked but so has their talent.  I really dont know how much more Bill Walsh could have gotten out of Sanchez & co

 

[TheoShmeo]

I don't disagree, but this leads me to "Rex needs help on the offensive side of the ball" rather than "Rex can't be a HC." Maybe he refuses to cede any authority on the offensive side of the ball, in which case you have to fire him, but if I were GM I'd try to make it work.

I've been at "Rex can't be a HC" for a while.
 
That team is all over the place and so is Rex. 
 
Think about:
 
- Rex's admission a few years ago (or was it last year?) that he had lost the pulse of the team. 
 
- Tthe Santonio Holmes insubordination and melt down on the field. 
 
- The 1-10 record after wins.  That speaks to a lack of discipline and not just problems on the offensive side of the ball. 
 
- The 1-4 record after byes.  Same.
 
- The public handling of the scapegoat (I mean offensive coordinator) Brian Schottenheimer.  "Brian is my man; Brian is gone." 
 
- The bizarro press conference before this season began when he kind of lost it in response to questions about who would be the starting QB. 
 
- Putting Mark Sanchez in harms way in the 4th quarter in an effort to win a pre-season game against the Giants. 
 
- All the checks he wrote about the team being a SB contender early in the first few seasons (though to his credit, he finally cut out that crap).
 
There's probably a lot more one could list. 
 
My take is that Rex is a genuinely nice, likable guy, a man whose players want to play for, and a very good defensive coach.  But there's just too much high comedy and bumbling for him to be taken seriously as a leader, in my view.

 

[crystalline]

Given the paucity of good head coaches out there if I were an owner I might try to make it work with Ryan as HC. You'd need a strong GM who can build an offense and would hire a good OC.

The worse problem might be his failure to build a disciplined organization, as reflected by Dave and Busters and perf after a bye. That's especially needed for Geno Smith's development now. I see a guy with a ton of natural talent who could benefit from 2 years in the film room and hard work. Not sure Ryan is the guy to instill that work ethic and I would think that's hard to fill with other hires if your head coach doesn't set the tone.

Edit: or what Theo said. Organizational leadership is one thing that has to come from the HC.
All this said, compare him to other coaches- I still respect Ryan far more than any of the other AFC East head coaches (besides Belichick of course) over the past 8 years.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
Is there a reason you are emphasizing the cooks but not the groceries?  Ryan has had Sanchez and Smith as his QBs, so at the most important position on offense he has had some awful players to work with.  Maybe he was involved selecting Sanchez, so maybe he is a coach that cant pick QBs, but I would argue that overall he hasnt had great offensive talent to work with.  In his first 3 years he was middle of the road offensively in terms of points, and the past few years they have just sucked but so has their talent.  I really dont know how much more Bill Walsh could have gotten out of Sanchez & co

 
It was Rex who declared them to be SB contenders about .0000000002394 seconds after Sanchez was drafted. It was Rex who never provided any real competition to Sanchez in camp. It was Rex who decided that Sanchez didn't need any stinkin' developmental time. And now that Sanchez has predictably flamed out, it's Rex who's tied his wagon to Geno, again, with no developmental time.
 
So I'm not buying this "it's the groceries" argument. Rex' choices along the way have directly contributed to the situation they're in now. They had a little window and made some noise and won 4 playoff games in two years, but that was the peak of their success and since then they've plateaued horribly. And that's on Rex and Tanny, and now on Rex and Idzik.
 
Rex can't coach offense. Fans and media have ignored this by blaming Tanny and Schotty and Sparano and everyone in the world but the head coach, but as the years pass it becomes obvious that Rex is at best half of a head coach. That's a lot of literary blood spilled over a guy who, it should be pointed out, wasn't even the DC on that SB winning Ravens team a million years ago. Just goes to show how far a big mouth and a talent for shameless self-promotional bullshit can take a guy.

 

[Super Nomario]

Perhaps, but my point was that there's zero data or evidence that the former is more likely to be true than the latter.  He's been in place a while, with multiple OCs, and been pretty bad the entire time offensively.

Well yeah, but until this year Mark Sanchez has been his quarterback the entire time. The best receivers they've had have been Keller, Holmes, and Braylon Edwards. Their best RBs have been Shonn Greene, Thomas Jones, and the ghost of LDT. You could have the mutant love-child of Sid Gillman, Don Coryell, and Bill Walsh as offensive coordinator and the offense would still be below-average.
 

 Without knowing a lot more about the personnel and OC engagement, we just don't have much of an idea whether he's able to be a good HC or not, seems to me.
 

This I agree with.
 

But sure, it could be if you have a great OC in place AND a different philosophy AND he will actually defer to the OC it might work.  I just have no idea what really goes on there.
 
Just to go back to our offseason discussion, your argument in this thread is why I don't agree with your Parcells assessment then---I do think coordinators can matter a lot, and we have to look at the best data around to see whether in a particular case they are or not.

I wouldn't say coordinators don't matter, but in general I think talent trumps coaching. I'm not going to defend the Jets' coaching on the offensive side of the ball, but there's no question the talent there has been a serious problem. I don't have any way of knowing how much input Rex has had into personnel moves on that side of the ball, and how much he'd be willing to scale down his influence there.

 

[wutang112878]

 
It was Rex who declared them to be SB contenders about .0000000002394 seconds after Sanchez was drafted. It was Rex who never provided any real competition to Sanchez in camp. It was Rex who decided that Sanchez didn't need any stinkin' developmental time. And now that Sanchez has predictably flamed out, it's Rex who's tied his wagon to Geno, again, with no developmental time.
 
So I'm not buying this "it's the groceries" argument.

 
We have 2 things going on here.  One is the superbowl predictions, which I will admit are amazingly stupid.  That said, he had a GM at the time who didnt seem to mind him generating tons of unnecessary attention to the team with press conferences and predictions and feetsies.  I would argue that this year he has been relatively tame in comparison to the Tanny years, so maybe he has got the message from upstairs.
 
Now as for QB development, I wish we knew the GM side of the matter.  With Geno I think its kind of clear that he is Idzik's guy and is sort of being force fed to Rex, so that whole situation seems like a clusterfuck, I dont see a good solution for him there.  Starting Sanchez his rookie year, and making it clear he was the guy makes a lot of sense to me.  It was his first year as a head coach and he could use it installing his system and developing his QB.  That seems like a logical strategy.  If you want to make the case that he never got Sanchez to really take his JOB as one of the supposed best 32 QBs on the planet, thats a fair criticism.  Do you think Jeff Fischer is a good coach?  How awful was his work with Vince Young?  Granted Fischer never wanted him, but I think Fischer is a great coach and he simply couldnt make it work. 

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I wouldn't say coordinators don't matter, but in general I think talent trumps coaching. I'm not going to defend the Jets' coaching on the offensive side of the ball, but there's no question the talent there has been a serious problem. I don't have any way of knowing how much input Rex has had into personnel moves on that side of the ball, and how much he'd be willing to scale down his influence there.

I agree with this in general but think the problem is less that Rex can't identify offensive talent and more that under Rex their draft resources have been very disproportionately geared toward defense. They've taken DLs or CBs with their last five first rounders. In the four years after drafting Sanchez, the only picks they made on offense in rounds 1-3 were Vlad Ducasse and Stephen Hill. You're going to have a talent problem on offense when your HC doesn't want to draft any offensive players and is more concerned with rebuilding a defense that will make him look good.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I wouldn't say coordinators don't matter, but in general I think talent trumps coaching. I'm not going to defend the Jets' coaching on the offensive side of the ball, but there's no question the talent there has been a serious problem. I don't have any way of knowing how much input Rex has had into personnel moves on that side of the ball, and how much he'd be willing to scale down his influence there.

 
Certainly fair to prioritize talent over coaching.   I do think over the last set of years there have been some talented players in the Jet offense, and also would observe that it has never been (overall) a great set of talent....no question QB is a festering wound the entire time.
 
That said, other teams who have mediocre talent have done more than the Jets have, too.  I am not a Brian Schottenheimer fan, and my personal guess is that Rex delegated to him a great deal.  I think Rex talking offensive theory to the media (as others have noted) and only being partially involved in the actual offense would be a problem, if what we read is true there (and it may not be).  Delegating to a coordinator who can't make it work is evidence of a significant HC gap as much as it is of needing a good OC, for me.  I viewed the Tanny years as more focused on 'players' than an offensive 'system' and 'approach' and that usually fails.  How much of that is Schotty, ownership, Rex, and how much is Tanny...who knows, it likely has elements of all of those.  I do think their drafting (as noted above) suggests someone is pushing for defense, and I am ok guessing Rex is part of that.
 
Can you win with Sanchez and Smith?  Probably not.  Can you do better than Jets have?  I suspect so.  And I guess that's where I land, on balance---I think the groceries do matter, but I also don't see any reason to be all that confident the results would match the talent if there were a lot more of it offensively.   We may never find out given the current trajectory and roster.  If I were looking for a coach in two years Rex would, for me, be a top-tier DC target and more down the list as a head coach.  But we'll see

 

[Super Nomario]

I've been at "Rex can't be a HC" for a while.
 
That team is all over the place and so is Rex. 
 
Think about:

- The Santonio Holmes insubordination and melt down on the field.

Holmes is a guy that the Steelers dealt for a 5th-round pick coming off a 1200-yard season. Something is up with that dude.
 

- Putting Mark Sanchez in harms way in the 4th quarter in an effort to win a pre-season game against the Giants. 

I can't defend this one.
 

- The 1-10 record after wins.  That speaks to a lack of discipline and not just problems on the offensive side of the ball.

This is a statistical fluke over the past two seasons. In 2011 they were 5-3 after wins, in 2010 they were 7-3 (9-4 counting postseason), in 2009 they were 5-3 (7-4 counting postseason).
 

- The 1-4 record after byes.  Same.

This is a 5-game sample size, and includes games against the 2010 Packers (who went on to win the Super Bowl) and 2012 Seahawks.
 

- Rex's admission a few years ago (or was it last year?) that he had lost the pulse of the team. 
- The public handling of the scapegoat (I mean offensive coordinator) Brian Schottenheimer.  "Brian is my man; Brian is gone." 
- The bizarro press conference before this season began when he kind of lost it in response to questions about who would be the starting QB. 
- All the checks he wrote about the team being a SB contender early in the first few seasons (though to his credit, he finally cut out that crap).

My take is that Rex is a genuinely nice, likable guy, a man whose players want to play for, and a very good defensive coach.  But there's just too much high comedy and bumbling for him to be taken seriously as a leader, in my view.

Maybe this stuff personally rubs you the wrong way - I'm not a huge fan of it, personally - but it doesn't seem to affect his ability to get players to play for him.

 

[Super Nomario]

I agree with this in general but think the problem is less that Rex can't identify offensive talent and more that under Rex their draft resources have been very disproportionately geared toward defense. They've taken DLs or CBs with their last five first rounders. In the four years after drafting Sanchez, the only picks they made on offense in rounds 1-3 were Vlad Ducasse and Stephen Hill. You're going to have a talent problem on offense when your HC doesn't want to draft any offensive players and is more concerned with rebuilding a defense that will make him look good.

First-rounders have been disproportionately used on defense - Sanchez is the only offensive player, while Wilson, Wilkerson, Coples, Milliner, and Richardson are all on D - but second-rounders (Ducasse, Hill, and Geno) have all been on offense and third-rounders (Greene, Brian Winters on O, Kenrick Ellis and Demario Davis on D) have been 50/50. They haven't taken a lot of offensive players high, but it's more because they keep trading away high draft picks than a big imbalance.
 
EDIT: and if you add 4th-rounders, they've all been on offense ... but there have only been 2 (Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell). 100% of their 5th rounders have been on offense, too (Conner, Kerley, Aboushi), and 4/5 of their 6th-rounders. What a weird drafting team the Jets are.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
Now as for QB development, I wish we knew the GM side of the matter.  With Geno I think its kind of clear that he is Idzik's guy and is sort of being force fed to Rex, so that whole situation seems like a clusterfuck, I dont see a good solution for him there.  Starting Sanchez his rookie year, and making it clear he was the guy makes a lot of sense to me.  It was his first year as a head coach and he could use it installing his system and developing his QB.  That seems like a logical strategy.  If you want to make the case that he never got Sanchez to really take his JOB as one of the supposed best 32 QBs on the planet, thats a fair criticism.  Do you think Jeff Fischer is a good coach?  How awful was his work with Vince Young?  Granted Fischer never wanted him, but I think Fischer is a great coach and he simply couldnt make it work. 

 
No. 19 years as a HC and he's finished over .500 only 6 times. Not. At. All.
 
As for the rest of it, that's not what Rex did. He didn't spend his first year installing his system and developing his QB. He spent the first year already assuming he had enough talent on hand to make a SB run and thus there was no time for any QB development. Sanchez was dreadful that year, 12-20 TD-INT, 53.8%. He never got any better. And Rex took over a 9-7 team from Mangini and went 9-7 and it was spun as the greatest coaching job in all of recorded history. It was an enormous crock of shit. His defense was much better than the previous year but the offense was substantially worse.
 
Rex clearly has defensive acumen given the performance of his Jets teams on that side of the ball since he's been there. As a HC he's dreadfully overmatched because he can't figure out a way to make his offense not be shitty.

 

[Shelterdog]

First-rounders have been disproportionately used on defense - Sanchez is the only offensive player, while Wilson, Wilkerson, Coples, Milliner, and Richardson are all on D - but second-rounders (Ducasse, Hill, and Geno) have all been on offense and third-rounders (Greene, Brian Winters on O, Kenrick Ellis and Demario Davis on D) have been 50/50. They haven't taken a lot of offensive players high, but it's more because they keep trading away high draft picks than a big imbalance.
 
EDIT: and if you add 4th-rounders, they've all been on offense ... but there have only been 2 (Joe McKnight and Bilal Powell). 100% of their 5th rounders have been on offense, too (Conner, Kerley, Aboushi), and 4/5 of their 6th-rounders. What a weird drafting team the Jets are.

 
The first rounders (particularly the three top 16 picks) are so much more important than the second and third round picks that I find it very hard to see there's been anything like balance in the last four drafts.  It's also a little strange given that the team has been consistently good on defense. 

 

[wutang112878]

 
No. 19 years as a HC and he's finished over .500 only 6 times. Not. At. All.
 
As for the rest of it, that's not what Rex did. He didn't spend his first year installing his system and developing his QB. He spent the first year already assuming he had enough talent on hand to make a SB run and thus there was no time for any QB development. Sanchez was dreadful that year, 12-20 TD-INT, 53.8%. He never got any better. And Rex took over a 9-7 team from Mangini and went 9-7 and it was spun as the greatest coaching job in all of recorded history. It was an enormous crock of shit. His defense was much better than the previous year but the offense was substantially worse.
 
Rex clearly has defensive acumen given the performance of his Jets teams on that side of the ball since he's been there. As a HC he's dreadfully overmatched because he can't figure out a way to make his offense not be shitty.

 
I'll concede, Rexy doesnt have an 'offensive system' that he brings with him, I shouldnt have said that.  But if you are winning with a young QB how should he have handled it differently?  He was just trying to win as much as possible with Sanchez.  And other than telling the world you want to go to the superbowl, whats wrong with telling your team that? 
 
I dont think Rex is a great offensive coach, I am not defending that.  But I think if he can defer the offense to an OC and a competent GM gets some talent on that side of the ball, he is such a good defensive coach that he could be a better than average coach.  It seems to me a lot of the 'data' we have on Rex is difficult to judge because personally I think he had an incompetent GM and QB to work with. 

 

[Shelterdog]

 
I'll concede, Rexy doesnt have an 'offensive system' that he brings with him, I shouldnt have said that.  But if you are winning with a young QB how should he have handled it differently?  He was just trying to win as much as possible with Sanchez.  And other than telling the world you want to go to the superbowl, whats wrong with telling your team that? 
 
I dont think Rex is a great offensive coach, I am not defending that.  But I think if he can defer the offense to an OC and a competent GM gets some talent on that side of the ball, he is such a good defensive coach that he could be a better than average coach.  It seems to me a lot of the 'data' we have on Rex is difficult to judge because personally I think he had an incompetent GM and QB to work with. 

 
Isn't part of being a good coach evaluating how your players (and team) are going to develop short and long term? The Jets blew this with Sanchez.  Sanchez wasn't improving much but he was still the anointed starter for four years, still didn't face really competition until this year, and got extended after the 2011 season.  It appears that the Jets let two pretty good playoff runs by the team blind them to the fairly obvious truth that Sanchez wasn't turning into an above average (or even average) NFL starting QB.
 
So what should they have done with Sanchez? Brough in real competition earlier, not extended him in 2012 (they would have had to make cuts elswwhere for cap reasons but at least they wouldn't be stuck with him in 2012) and proceeded to play the ultra-conservative style they had used in 2009.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Also, looking at the game logs from Sanchez' first year, they may have been winning, but he was hot garbage the vast majority of the time. It was obvious he would have to improve dramatically going forward to maintain their initial success.

 

[tims4wins]

Holmes is a guy that the Steelers dealt for a 5th-round pick coming off a 1200-yard season. Something is up with that dude.
 
I can't defend this one.
 
This is a statistical fluke over the past two seasons. In 2011 they were 5-3 after wins, in 2010 they were 7-3 (9-4 counting postseason), in 2009 they were 5-3 (7-4 counting postseason).
 
This is a 5-game sample size, and includes games against the 2010 Packers (who went on to win the Super Bowl) and 2012 Seahawks.
 
Maybe this stuff personally rubs you the wrong way - I'm not a huge fan of it, personally - but it doesn't seem to affect his ability to get players to play for him.

 
Just to respond to the bold - I would argue that it does affect his ability to get the players to play for him week in, week out. The Patriots model of consistency means they don't make any one game bigger than another, and means they show up each and every week to play. Rex making a big deal out of Patriots week or whatever leads the Jets to be more prone to let-downs, IMO.

 

[Tony C]

I don't disagree, but this leads me to "Rex needs help on the offensive side of the ball" rather than "Rex can't be a HC." Maybe he refuses to cede any authority on the offensive side of the ball, in which case you have to fire him, but if I were GM I'd try to make it work.

 
I don't understand this. He has ceded authority -- that's basically the problem. He hand-picked Tony Sparano as his guy and let him run the show. I appreciate that he accepts his limitations, but one Sparano was a horrible choice and two a HC is a HC for a reason -- he's not the supra DC. MM is a competent OC (not sure if that was an Idzik hire or if Ryan had real input, I assume the former but don't know), but at some point you need to have a HC who has a sense of the big picture and can speak to both sides of the ball.
 

 
It was Rex who declared them to be SB contenders about .0000000002394 seconds after Sanchez was drafted. It was Rex who never provided any real competition to Sanchez in camp. It was Rex who decided that Sanchez didn't need any stinkin' developmental time. And now that Sanchez has predictably flamed out, it's Rex who's tied his wagon to Geno, again, with no developmental time.
 
So I'm not buying this "it's the groceries" argument. Rex' choices along the way have directly contributed to the situation they're in now. They had a little window and made some noise and won 4 playoff games in two years, but that was the peak of their success and since then they've plateaued horribly. And that's on Rex and Tanny, and now on Rex and Idzik.
 
Rex can't coach offense. Fans and media have ignored this by blaming Tanny and Schotty and Sparano and everyone in the world but the head coach, but as the years pass it becomes obvious that Rex is at best half of a head coach. That's a lot of literary blood spilled over a guy who, it should be pointed out, wasn't even the DC on that SB winning Ravens team a million years ago. Just goes to show how far a big mouth and a talent for shameless self-promotional bullshit can take a guy.

 
Aside from TheoSchmeo's arguments, as SJH says the 'it's the groceries argument" is particularly weak. He states it all above, but I'll just add one other thing to remember: it was Rex and Tanny who worked out Sanchez and Rex was right there from what I've read in wanting to choose him, much less all the other idiocy once Sanchez was in NY. Sanchez was the steak he bought at the grocery. It was not only a gristly purchase, but then he threw it into the fire too quickly and proceeded to cook with it for far, far too long...along the way adding way too much Sanchize ketchup. And, yes, I'll stop with the stupid metaphors....

 

[wutang112878]

 
Isn't part of being a good coach evaluating how your players (and team) are going to develop short and long term? The Jets blew this with Sanchez.  Sanchez wasn't improving much but he was still the anointed starter for four years, still didn't face really competition until this year, and got extended after the 2011 season.  It appears that the Jets let two pretty good playoff runs by the team blind them to the fairly obvious truth that Sanchez wasn't turning into an above average (or even average) NFL starting QB.
 
So what should they have done with Sanchez? Brough in real competition earlier, not extended him in 2012 (they would have had to make cuts elswwhere for cap reasons but at least they wouldn't be stuck with him in 2012) and proceeded to play the ultra-conservative style they had used in 2009.

 
He just stuck with Sanchez a little too long, its not like he got a tattoo of him or anything.  Oh wait....
 
After 2011 yes, they should have started cutting the cord.  I have no idea where Rex stood on the Sanchez extension, but that extension never made any sense whatsoever in any way, not talent, stability, projection, salary cap, etc  Tanny was purely moronic to make that move, he gained nothing from it whatsoever.  So I am honestly not sure if Rex could have talked him out of it even if he wanted to.  I am not going to suggest that Rex did everything right with Sanchez, he didnt, but Tanny did so much more wrong if you ask me.  Tanny ultimately has to take responsibility for the extension, and not bringing in competition for Sanchez.  Those are 2 moves where even if Rex was claiming Sanchez would be the next Montana, then Tanny still should have overruled him. 
 
Its a situation where I just wonder if he was coupled with a GM who pushed back on him, if he would have been more successful.  Its just a complex situation to analyze with a lot of gray area.  Was Bill an idiot for signing Adalius Thomas, and then letting him stick around too long which ruined some of the lockerroom chemistry?  Rex's mistake was certainly much, much bigger but I think it highlights his limitations as a coach, and that he needs to report to a competent GM

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Just to respond to the bold - I would argue that it does affect his ability to get the players to play for him week in, week out. The Patriots model of consistency means they don't make any one game bigger than another, and means they show up each and every week to play. Rex making a big deal out of Patriots week or whatever leads the Jets to be more prone to let-downs, IMO.

I don't know that it's let-downs, at least emotionally like you're implying. I think the bigger issue is that when you go down big, you have to throw the ball, and that's been a problem for the Jets. Yesterday's a good example - the D held Buffalo to fewer than 5 yards a play and just 14 first downs, but the offense turned the ball over 4 times and they lost big. They're 0-2 this year in the two games they've had 4 turnovers, 2-3 with 2 turnovers, and 3-0 with 1 or 0 turnovers. That doesn't look like emotional highs-and-lows; it looks like the perils of rookie quarterbacking.
 

 
I don't understand this. He has ceded authority -- that's basically the problem. He hand-picked Tony Sparano as his guy and let him run the show. I appreciate that he accepts his limitations, but one Sparano was a horrible choice and two a HC is a HC for a reason -- he's not a the supra DC. MM is a competent OC (not sure if that was an Idzik hire or if Ryan had real input, I assume the former but don't know), but at some point you need to have a HC who has a sense of the big picture and can speak to both sides of the ball.

This is fair. I guess if you don't think it's fixable you have to fire Rex, but I'm not sure it isn't.

 

[Shelterdog]

 
He just stuck with Sanchez a little too long, its not like he got a tattoo of him or anything.  Oh wait....
 
After 2011 yes, they should have started cutting the cord.  I have no idea where Rex stood on the Sanchez extension, but that extension never made any sense whatsoever in any way, not talent, stability, projection, salary cap, etc  Tanny was purely moronic to make that move, he gained nothing from it whatsoever.  So I am honestly not sure if Rex could have talked him out of it even if he wanted to.  I am not going to suggest that Rex did everything right with Sanchez, he didnt, but Tanny did so much more wrong if you ask me.  Tanny ultimately has to take responsibility for the extension, and not bringing in competition for Sanchez.  Those are 2 moves where even if Rex was claiming Sanchez would be the next Montana, then Tanny still should have overruled him. 

 
I'll quibble on this one.  The Jets were going in to cap jail in 2012 and the extension freed up about 6.5 million for them that year. The extension was a (very stupid) short term salary cap relief move, and it did that but at the cost of forcing them to keep Sanchez on the cap at a high dollar value in 2013.