2013 Dallas Cowboys - Expensively Mediocre

Euclis20

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LondonSox said:
Btw why is Murray a good rb? He's been serial injured, if IF he can stay healthy he's a solid back. I don't get the love affair. He's solid. If they ever penalize him for the lowering his crown running style (which is officially a penalty now but never enforced) he's got a problem. Cowboys fans were sacking his dick vs the Eagles but he averaged 3 yards a carry.
 
Well, when you average 5 yards per carry over a 3 year period, while also being a pretty good receiving back, people get pretty excited.  Health is obviously everything, but when healthy, he's more than "solid."  He was 2nd in DYAR among RBs this year, despite missing 2 games.  When healthy, he's up there with McCoy and Charles in the "best non-AP RB" category.
 

Gunfighter 09

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So Hatcher, Spencer and Austin are gone unless they cut Ware, correct? 
 
 
Crazy idea time--- There are three teams at the top of the draft that have a ton of cap room and need a QB in JVille, Cleveland and Oakland. Does Jerry offer Romo for top of the draft pick and start over with a young guy? Or better yet offer Romo +1 Dallas's 1 for Bradford and the #2 pick. 
 

Super Nomario

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Gunfighter 09 said:
So Hatcher, Spencer and Austin are gone unless they cut Ware, correct? 
 
 
Crazy idea time--- There are three teams at the top of the draft that have a ton of cap room and need a QB in JVille, Cleveland and Oakland. Does Jerry offer Romo for top of the draft pick and start over with a young guy? Or better yet offer Romo +1 Dallas's 1 for Bradford and the #2 pick. 
Can't trade Romo. He's owed $41 MM in dead money; the Cowboys eat that if they trade him.
 

Bosoxen

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Don't forget the key draft of David Buehler in the 5th round for the vastly underrated position of kickoff specialist. He wasn't just a kicker, he was a special kicker.... Seriously though, thank god for Bailey. First kicker since Chris Boniol that I have real confidence in.

I would also like to echo SMU Sox's sentiments here. I have a 2 month old daughter and those damn hormones are still there. I only interject on occasions when the train is about to jump the tracks and go off the cliff. See e.g., "We should buy a new house."


I think Buehler was the kicker I was thinking about. Dear God, what a massive fuck up that was.

I fell for the buying a new house bit. We just got one two months ago. Pregnancy hormones kicked in right in the middle of negotiations. That was fun.

Nobody is going to offer anything of value for a 33/34 year-old QB coming off back surgery. The time to trade Romo was 2-3 years ago.


And that's why the Cowboys under Jerry Jones will never amount to anything. He's too reactionary. Have issues kicking off? Draft a kickoff specialist in the fifth round the following April. Starting quarterback misses several games? Spend fuck tons of money on a backup. Michael Vick takes the league by storm? Draft Quincy Fucking Carter.

He will never prepare for eventualities ahead of time. What's going to happen is that Tony Romo will be in a wheelchair by the time they draft another quarterback. As I said before, it's 1998 all over again. The team is in cap hell, the quarterback is getting old and the captain is rapidly losing control of the ship. There will be a series of 5-10 type seasons in the very near future. As if the past three seasons ending in exactly the same fashion didn't make it feel enough like Groundhog Day.
 

Gunfighter 09

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Super Nomario said:
Can't trade Romo. He's owed $41 MM in dead money; the Cowboys eat that if they trade him.
 
 
That is what is interesting to me about the Cowboys. As was pointed out above, they were largely healthy this year and still have to consider the season a failure. It seems clear to me that it is time to tear this thing down and start over. How do you do it gracefully? It seems like Smith, Lee, Dez, Claiborne and perhaps Murray are what you build around and target competing in 15 or 16. Everything else; Romo, Ware, Whitten, should be looked at as an avenue towards savings.  
 

LondonSox

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Which will never happen.

RE Murray the ypc is great and all but this is the first season he's played over 10 games and first time he got 1000 yards. He still averages around 15-17 touches a game. It's much easier to get good ypc stats if you barely run the ball and the defense is not focused on it.

Now that doesn't mean he can't be a stud. But he hasn't been so far, mainly due to play calling and injury. But it's hard to look at how he runs and his injury history and be dubious he can hold up in a AP type work load.

Plus what is a guy like him worth? He's through 3 years of a third round pick contract. So they need to decide what to do with him too.
 

Euclis20

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Again, Murray was 2nd in DYAR among RBs this year.  That isn't a rate stat.  Health and durability are everything, not just for RBs but for everyone.  When healthy, he's excellent, and extremely efficient.  Maybe he isn't meant to be a feature, 20 carries/game back, but when the ball is in his hands, few are better. 
 
You asked why people like him, there it is.
 

LondonSox

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Euclis20 said:
Again, Murray was 2nd in DYAR among RBs this year.  That isn't a rate stat.  Health and durability are everything, not just for RBs but for everyone.  When healthy, he's excellent, and extremely efficient.  Maybe he isn't meant to be a feature, 20 carries/game back, but when the ball is in his hands, few are better. 
 
You asked why people like him, there it is.
Thanks, and I get why people like him. Not least because people with potential who can't stay healthy are always a tease.
I don't get why they think he's a borderline superstar, but maybe I underestimated him.

I struggle to understand why he's not more used if he is that good, are the Cowboys coaches and play callers THAT bad? Or are they trying to protect him?
Basically if it's option 1, then how can Garrett be given more time? If it's option 2 then he seems likely to leave the cowboys right? Because if you don't think he can handle 20 touches a game then he is not worthy of a huge contract.
Either he deserves more carries, and your coaches suck, or he can't handle that and he's not a long term solution. I suspect the answer is he MIGHT handle it, and if Romo is gimpy you need to find out next year.
 

Greg29fan

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Marinelli is leaving for Tampa's defensive coordinator position...why do I get the feeling the next D Line coach is gonna be this guy?
 
 

jsinger121

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Greg29fan said:
Marinelli is leaving for Tampa's defensive coordinator position...why do I get the feeling the next D Line coach is gonna be this guy?
 
Lane is an offensive guy. Don't know why Dallas would even consider hiring someone with no experience on that side of the ball.
 

SMU_Sox

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Something about the movie Step Brothers and the young bull versus the old bull.
 

EP Sox Fan

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Can they have Linehan and Callahan fight to the death for the right to call 80% passing plays next season?  Maybe Monte Kiffin will end up as collateral damage so we can be spared another record setting team defensive performance.  This franchise is rapidly descending into Al Davis Oakland Raider territory.
 

Bosoxen

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EP Sox Fan said:
This franchise is rapidly descending into Al Davis Oakland Raider territory.
 
I'm fairly certain it was already there.
 

LondonSox

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Bosoxen

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Yeah, that's a stupid contract and kicker is the most fungible position. But Bailey is a difference maker. That's the kind of kicker to whom you give that sort of contract. This was the wrong team doing it at the wrong time, but it's not as indefensible as, say, giving the franchise tag to a player that didn't even sniff the field the entire season.
 
Jerry has made some pretty egregious contract mistakes in the past 10 years. This is pretty far down on that list. It's only bad in the context of their cap situation.
 
Do you realize what you've done? You've made me sugar coat something the Cowboys did. Now I need another damn shower.
 

LeftyTG

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Bosoxen said:
Yeah, that's a stupid contract and kicker is the most fungible position. But Bailey is a difference maker. That's the kind of kicker to whom you give that sort of contract. This was the wrong team doing it at the wrong time, but it's not as indefensible as, say, giving the franchise tag to a player that didn't even sniff the field the entire season.
 
Jerry has made some pretty egregious contract mistakes in the past 10 years. This is pretty far down on that list. It's only bad in the context of their cap situation.
 
Do you realize what you've done? You've made me sugar coat something the Cowboys did. Now I need another damn shower.
I just hope everyone realizes this contract means Bailey will be missing a 35 yard field goal with the playoffs on the line in Week 17 next year.  It is now set in stone.
 

dcmissle

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Bosoxen

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LeftyTG said:
I just hope everyone realizes this contract means Bailey will be missing a 35 yard field goal with the playoffs on the line in Week 17 next year.  It is now set in stone.
 
And the narrative in Dallas will be that Romo choked again.
 

LondonSox

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Bosoxen said:
Yeah, that's a stupid contract and kicker is the most fungible position. But Bailey is a difference maker. That's the kind of kicker to whom you give that sort of contract. This was the wrong team doing it at the wrong time, but it's not as indefensible as, say, giving the franchise tag to a player that didn't even sniff the field the entire season.
 
Jerry has made some pretty egregious contract mistakes in the past 10 years. This is pretty far down on that list. It's only bad in the context of their cap situation.
 
Do you realize what you've done? You've made me sugar coat something the Cowboys did. Now I need another damn shower.
Oh come on. He's a difference maker?
He's now one of about 5 players looked up this long. The others are rock stars.
You dump him and pick up a solid kicker for the minimum.

Inevitably they will cut the guy and eat a cap loss when they need in it a couple years.
 

SMU_Sox

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Bailey is actually a really good kicker even in cold weather. Whether it is too rich of a contract or not appropriate for a team this cash strapped is one thing. But if this is a straight evaluation of Bailey he's been great.
 

Bosoxen

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LondonSox said:
Oh come on. He's a difference maker?
He's now one of about 5 players looked up this long. The others are rock stars.
You dump him and pick up a solid kicker for the minimum.

Inevitably they will cut the guy and eat a cap loss when they need in it a couple years.
 
In the grand scheme of things, that is a small cap hit for one of the best kickers in the game. Again, the debate shouldn't be whether Bailey is worth the money. The debate should be whether the Cowboys should have gone treading into that territory at this point in time.
 
Bailey isn't some flash in the pan kicker who can be great one year and average the next - like most kickers. He's been consistently excellent his entire time in Dallas. That's the kind of guy you consider locking up to avoid that roller coaster. With that said, the might have been better served waiting a year or two to do that.
 

LondonSox

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So he ranked 22 on average kickoff distance (removing two guys who only did one).
In a dome, in Dallas. I think that's ok. It's hardly great
 
His career long field goal was this year at 53, before that it was 51. Again in a dome, in the warm. That is by no means a long leg.
 
He's accurate thought, he's only missed4 field goals sub 50 yards in his three years. Impressive
 
Over 50? 5/9 with a long of 51 yards before this year. That's not good.
This year he improved and was 6/7 and that new career long of 53 yards. You have to think that is an improvement that lasts to even consider calling him a top kicker.
 
So he's average to good at kickoffs, but nothing special, he's very accurate out to 50 yards but doesn't have a big leg.
 
Phil Dawson, was a free agent pick up by the Niners this year, not kept by CLEVELAND had a similar season to Bailey's last year.
 
How's he excellent again? Guys who are accurate but can't get over 50 yards are not that rare. Alex Henry for the Eagles is a similar guy and the Eagles are bringing in competition for him/ considering getting rid of him.
He seems like a decent, above average maybe even good (assuming his improvement this year was real and not luck) kicker. He's not a top 10 kicker.
 
(before you ask Prater, Tucker, Gould, Crosby, Dawson, Carpenter, Bironas, Gostkowski, Folk, Walsh, Zuerlein, Haushka, Scobee, Gano all better, close to him Nugent, Bryant)
 
So I just got him around 15th in the league, at best. Maybe there are a couple guys you disagree with I ranked above him. But still he's middle of the pack. Plus a bunch of guys worse than him are going to get fired.
 

Super Nomario

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I don't have a problem with the contract. Years and dollar amounts are always empty data without knowing the structure of the contract. Why are people scoffing at 7 years? The NFL has non-guaranteed contracts, so more years are pretty much always better for the team, and obviously Bailey's at an age (26) and position (kicker) where his ability to contribute at his present level seems likely. $6.8 MM of the $22.5 MM is pure non-guaranteed funny money in the last two years; he'll be a good candidate for restructure after three years. A good summary here: http://overthecap.com/contract-details-dan-baileys-22-5-million-contract-cowboys/
 
LondonSox said:
How's he excellent again? Guys who are accurate but can't get over 50 yards are not that rare. Alex Henry for the Eagles is a similar guy and the Eagles are bringing in competition for him/ considering getting rid of him.
He seems like a decent, above average maybe even good (assuming his improvement this year was real and not luck) kicker. He's not a top 10 kicker.
I do agree with this. There's an old article by Aaron Schatz pointing out that there's basically no year-to-year correlation between field goal accuracy from one year to the next, so it's better to judge kickers on kickoff distance. FGs are small sample sizes with uneven distribution of difficulty. Bailey's an OK kicker. But per above, I think this is an OK contract.
 

LondonSox

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Bosoxen said:
If you're going to compare Bailey to Alex Henery, then that's all the information I need to know that this conversation is pointless.
 
Speaking of bullshit, Jerry is talking again:
 
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfceast/post/_/id/60722/jerry-jones-look-in-the-mirror-is-too-late
Well let's see.
Henery 2011 89% long 51
Bailey 2011 86.5% long 51

Henery 2012 87% long 51
Bailey 2012 93.5% long 51

So not that different. Now Henery is going in the wrong direction and Bailey is improving. But for one year there were about the same and one year Bailey is better. Over the two? It's what one field goal make vs miss between them.

Yeah stupid. Especially as one plays outdoors in philly and one in a dome.

2013 sure no contest. But my point is they are one year removed from basically the same. I don't think it's ridiculous to note that one year from Henery makes him chopped liver and one good year from Bailey makes him worth a 7 year contract.

I mean I don't care and whatever but Bailey is eh unless his improvement is real and continuing.