2/2 Celtics @ Warriors

benhogan

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His thing is he's a modern tweener. He's strong but not strong enough to offset really big guys, and he's pretty mobile, but this year any wing or swing with any burst and lateral quickness has been able to beat him. He looks a bit slower than last year, but it may just be that with more tape guys aren't giving him the chance to use the angles, and are getting tighter to him and putting his quickness more to the test.
he's a young, cheap, solid complimentary piece to JayCrew. same as Semi. Not sure what you guys are expecting from a late 1st.
 

Cellar-Door

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he's a young, cheap, solid complimentary piece to JayCrew. same as Semi. Not sure what you guys are expecting from a late 1st.
He's a perfectly acceptable 8th to 10th man. That means when it's a good matchup he'll get run, when it is a bad matchup he'll get few or no minutes. That's fine, but is also means he like Semi and Green is eminently replaceable. I don't think I've ever said otherwise. He's an end of the rotation guy, and you hope that as time goes on he either improves or gets passed in the rotation by someone else who improves.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, one can see why GW dominated in college. Really good against most players but he has to figure out how to use his strength and body against bigger players.

Kinda amazing he's what(?) 8-18 from the FT line.
10 for 20 ...I believe he was ~75-80% FT shooter at UTenn... probably brings it up with more FTA

more importantly he's 15 for 32 from 3 (47%)
 

benhogan

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He's a perfectly acceptable 8th to 10th man. That means when it's a good matchup he'll get run, when it is a bad matchup he'll get few or no minutes. That's fine, but is also means he like Semi and Green is eminently replaceable. I don't think I've ever said otherwise. He's an end of the rotation guy, and you hope that as time goes on he either improves or gets passed in the rotation by someone else who improves.
just turned 22. I'd bet he still has some development left in him
 

Cellar-Door

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just turned 22. I'd bet he still has some development left in him
I agree, my only concern is whether he is quick enough, but even then you can do a lot by being strong and smart. He's not gonna be Draymond, but if he can be 1/2 as good as Draymond mentally on D and 2/3rd as good physically that's still a good bench player.
 

benhogan

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I agree, my only concern is whether he is quick enough, but even then you can do a lot by being strong and smart. He's not gonna be Draymond, but if he can be 1/2 as good as Draymond mentally on D and 2/3rd as good physically that's still a good bench player.
PJ Tucker comp is intact...Dray was an All-Star, not sure that should be his main comp (maybe his ceiling?)

Grant is 42% from 3 over his last 82 games (including playoff games)

you keep running him 15mpg, spreads the floor for the Jays, which is very important to their development
 

radsoxfan

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He's a perfectly acceptable 8th to 10th man. That means when it's a good matchup he'll get run, when it is a bad matchup he'll get few or no minutes. That's fine, but is also means he like Semi and Green is eminently replaceable. I don't think I've ever said otherwise. He's an end of the rotation guy, and you hope that as time goes on he either improves or gets passed in the rotation by someone else who improves.
Agreed. I like he is hitting the corner 3s but he's in worse shape and a step slower than last year. This version of Grant can only play in select matchups.

I said this in the Grant thread a month ago, projections look about the same to me.

90th percentile NBA starter
75th percentile valuable NBA bench player (6-8th man)
50th percentile fringe minutes (9-11th man)
25th percentile end of bench/fringe roster spot
10th percentile looking for passport
 

benhogan

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Agreed. I like he is hitting the corner 3s but he's in worse shape and a step slower than last year. This version of Grant can only play in select matchups.

I said this in the Grant thread a month ago, projections look about the same to me.

90th percentile NBA starter
75th percentile valuable NBA bench player (6-8th man)
50th percentile fringe minutes (9-11th man)
25th percentile end of bench/fringe roster spot
10th percentile looking for passport
he'll improve over the next few seasons

but you get an A+ for writing out the word "percentile" 5x
 

radsoxfan

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He will have to improve quite a bit to reach that 75th percentile projection I have for him as a valuable 6-8th man.

Not impossible... but things aren't looking great.
 

benhogan

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He will have to improve quite a bit to reach that 75th percentile projection I have for him as a valuable 6-8th man.

Not impossible... but things aren't looking great.
if he continues to shoot over 40% from 3, that will make him a valuable 6-8th man on this team
 

radsoxfan

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if he continues to shoot over 40% from 3, that will make him a valuable 6-8th man on this team
If the Celtics can keep finding opponents without a useful player over 6'5" that will help.

I would point out he is already shooting over 40% on 3s and he has been terrible so far this year. Unfortunately his D is much worse this year and his overall contribution hasn't been close to a valuable 6-8th man. He is going to have to improve in other areas to get there.
 

benhogan

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If the Celtics can keep finding opponents without a useful player over 6'5" that will help.

I would point out he is already shooting over 40% on 3s and he has been terrible so far this year. Unfortunately his D is much worse this year and his overall contribution hasn't been close to a valuable 6-8th man. He is going to have to improve in other areas to get there.
I agree I don't think he's looked all that good to start the year. BUT overall the Celtics defense has been less than impressive, with or without Grant. Maybe that's skewing the 15 games he's played this season? We had folks using +/- to access the quality of individual play in the first half tonight, so there may be a hair of reactionary analysis around these parts.

Feel free to expand the sample size to last year and the playoffs if you want more data points on a young player.

The height thing is kind of silly, are we really using that as a barometer of how good he can be on a given night. I mean that's laughable.
 

128

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Is Bazemore still on that ridiculous contract? At a reasonable price, he's a nice piece off the bench.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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but he's in worse shape and a step slower than last year.
People (not just you) keep banging this GW is in worse shape drum. I agree that he looks a step slower on defense - but then again, as BH notes, the entire Cs team looks a step slower to me (or maybe not a step slow but a beat behind), but to my eye, he definitely does not look out of shape. If anything, he looks a little bit leaner to me than last year. There was a podcast from last summer where Grant said he was kicked out of the weight room because he couldn't work out as much in the NBA as he did in college but he's such a hard worker, I doubt he'd let him get himself out of shape.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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And since we're talking about GW, here's a good Yahoo article on smaller bruisers like Draymond, Xavier, Tillman, and Lu Dort: https://www.yahoo.com/now/the-draymond-generation-why-undersized-bruisers-are-ideal-in-todays-nba-140009989.html.

Contains a section on GW too and his background. Here's a part:
When the ACES [GW's first AAU team] played Harry Giles, the No. 1 big in the country, Williams routinely got himself switched onto Giles. With upfakes and barrelling drives, Williams kept Giles in foul trouble all game.
“I was like, this kid is playing chess,” Ligon said.
“The ability to be curious and wonder and pay attention, targeted towards the game of basketball, is a gift,” said Blake Boehringer, Williams’ trainer.
Ligon called Desmond Oliver, then an assistant coach at Charlotte, and told him about Williams — the stocky kid who always found a way to keep up with blue-chip prospects, from Giles to Bam Adebayo.
Oliver loved what he saw. He eventually left for Tennessee to coach under Rick Barnes, and Williams transferred to a bigger AAU program, the CP3 All-Stars, where he backed up Giles.

worth a read.
 

PedroKsBambino

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If he can play D sure, but for a good chunk of this season he has been attrocious on that end. Tonight was a good matchup in that the Warriors don't have a lot of scoring and were down all their bigs so we could hide Grant and he took advantage eventually (he was bad in the first half), but he's very matchup dependent at this point.
Agreed, the theory of Grant may be a very good fit for this team but the actual player has not been this year. In my mind the question is in part about matchup, and also about role: he to me is a useful 4/5 (especially if there is not a big height issue as you note) and likely not a useful 3 most of the time. Would be huge for the team if he could prove he can be useful on the wing against a range of opponents, but evidence to date suggests not (at least not yet). He is not a 6th-8th man right now, though there are some things to like for sure. If he can be that this year it addresses a big gap.
 

RedOctober3829

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Agreed, the theory of Grant may be a very good fit for this team but the actual player has not been this year. In my mind the question is in part about matchup, and also about role: he to me is a useful 4/5 (especially if there is not a big height issue as you note) and likely not a useful 3 most of the time. Would be huge for the team if he could prove he can be useful on the wing against a range of opponents, but evidence to date suggests not (at least not yet). He is not a 6th-8th man right now, though there are some things to like for sure. If he can be that this year it addresses a big gap.
I'm not sure where anyone is getting the notion that he's been a bad player this year. He's 15-for-32 from 3 this year. Since early last year's struggles, he's been a really good outside shooter. I think he's gotten the shaft a bit w/r/t playing time because of Brad playing the double big lineup so much early in the season.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I'm not sure where anyone is getting the notion that he's been a bad player this year. He's 15-for-32 from 3 this year. Since early last year's struggles, he's been a really good outside shooter. I think he's gotten the shaft a bit w/r/t playing time because of Brad playing the double big lineup so much early in the season.
Because there is a lot more to the game than shooting three-pointers. As several have noted, he's been bad defensively and other than 3pt% his offense has been bad as well.

It's imperfect given his limited minutes, but via RPM he's 70th...among power forwards. Brad sat him because he's been bad---I don't think there's much question here, his minutes have largely gone to Javonte Green.

What is the case for him being good other than 3pt%?
 

Cellar-Door

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I'm not sure where anyone is getting the notion that he's been a bad player this year. He's 15-for-32 from 3 this year. Since early last year's struggles, he's been a really good outside shooter. I think he's gotten the shaft a bit w/r/t playing time because of Brad playing the double big lineup so much early in the season.
He's been generally quite bad outside shooting 3s, his TOV rate is very high especially given his low usage, his defense has been poor, and his rebounding is very bad for a "big". He's hit a couple more 3s but the rest of his game has stagnated or regressed. Last year he was a pretty good defender who was bad on offense, this year he's hitting more 3s but is overall still pretty bad on offense overall, and his defense isn't good anymore.

Small samples, etc. but he's going to need to step up if he wants to get more consistent minutes.
 

RedOctober3829

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Because there is a lot more to the game than shooting three-pointers. As several have noted, he's been bad defensively and other than 3pt% his offense has been bad as well.

It's imperfect given his limited minutes, but via RPM he's 70th...among power forwards. Brad sat him because he's been bad---I don't think there's much question here, his minutes have largely gone to Javonte Green.

What is the case for him being good other than 3pt%?
I get that part about defense, but how much of it is him and how much of it is the team as a whole not playing well on defense? It's difficult to judge individual defensive ability when the entire team has largely been horrible. I'm willing to give Grant more of a chance than Javonte Green because there is more of an investment in Grant.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I get that part about defense, but how much of it is him and how much of it is the team as a whole not playing well on defense? It's difficult to judge individual defensive ability when the entire team has largely been horrible. I'm willing to give Grant more of a chance than Javonte Green because there is more of an investment in Grant.
I agree, but I also would have cut Green in offseason and gone with Bane or a FA flyer. You asked the reason to question Grant's play, and the answer to me is largely "because both the eye-test and the coach's rotation suggest he hasn't been good other than shooting 3PT" YMMV
 

Jed Zeppelin

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He's been generally quite bad outside shooting 3s, his TOV rate is very high especially given his low usage, his defense has been poor, and his rebounding is very bad for a "big". He's hit a couple more 3s but the rest of his game has stagnated or regressed. Last year he was a pretty good defender who was bad on offense, this year he's hitting more 3s but is overall still pretty bad on offense overall, and his defense isn't good anymore.

Small samples, etc. but he's going to need to step up if he wants to get more consistent minutes.
I was hoping his supposed prodigious strength and big butt would make him an effective space clearer on the glass. His positioning actually looks pretty good to my eye—he is constantly around the ball and getting his hands on rebounds—but he is so short and such a slow leaper that he is just not able to secure as many as he should.

That's unlikely to change but you at least have to hope he can turn his defense around. He was pretty impressive against Bam in the Bubble.
 

radsoxfan

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I will say, a point in Grant's favor is that he has already been good at a couple different things in his career, just not at the same time yet. Though of course the shooting could be SSS noise, need to see how much is real.

Better to have a young player who is a useful defender one year and then looks to be shooting better the next year than have someone who just flashes one skill.

If he can put some of those skills together at the same time, then he does become useful.
 

radsoxfan

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I was hoping his supposed prodigious strength and big butt would make him an effective space clearer on the glass. His positioning actually looks pretty good to my eye—he is constantly around the ball and getting his hands on rebounds—but he is so short and such a slow leaper that he is just not able to secure as many as he should.
Yeah, he can't jump and is short. I don't see how he can ever hold his own on the boards.

He is so often in great position only to have someone else easily take the ball away from his outstretched hands. Looks like me in high school.
 

radsoxfan

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Also, in college he averaged 6.5 rebounds per game and had a TRB% of 12.7. Not exciting numbers. Seems like its always going to be a weakness.

His path to useful bench cog is going to be knocking down those corner 3s, being in great shape so he can be an above average multi position defender, and not making any mistakes.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I was hoping his supposed prodigious strength and big butt would make him an effective space clearer on the glass. His positioning actually looks pretty good to my eye—he is constantly around the ball and getting his hands on rebounds—but he is so short and such a slow leaper that he is just not able to secure as many as he should.

That's unlikely to change but you at least have to hope he can turn his defense around. He was pretty impressive against Bam in the Bubble.
I was also hoping that he'd be kind of like a Sullinger in that way too, but yeah, he's just too short. I forgot that Sully was 6'9''. That extra 3'' makes a big difference when you can't jump.
 

joe dokes

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I was also hoping that he'd be kind of like a Sullinger in that way too, but yeah, he's just too short. I forgot that Sully was 6'9''. That extra 3'' makes a big difference when you can't jump.
I saw some Leon Powe in him. But, again, also shorter.
 

DJnVa

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He will have to improve quite a bit to reach that 75th percentile projection I have for him as a valuable 6-8th man.

Not impossible... but things aren't looking great.
I mean, he's 8th in minutes right now.
 

lars10

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38 pts on 21 fga, 11 reb, 8 ast, 3 stl. Tough crowd.

Good game, gents.
I think the only thing that made him look human is he missed one or two threes late that sealed it for the Celtics. His shooting from three is still so good that at times he almost looks lazy putting it up. He’s basically carrying your team right now without Klay.
 

radsoxfan

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I mean, he's 8th in minutes right now.
Our bench is terrible, he’s 8th in minutes because there is no one else to play, not because he has so far been a valuable piece.

6-8th man is being used here as a general level of quality, not related to his current minutes.
 

DJnVa

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Our bench is terrible, he’s 8th in minutes because there is no one else to play, not because he has so far been a valuable piece.
You may be right, I haven't done a deep dive into the 8th man on many benches, but the Bucks run out DJ Augustin. There's generally a reason guys are 8th on a team in minutes.
 

scottyno

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I think the only thing that made him look human is he missed one or two threes late that sealed it for the Celtics. His shooting from three is still so good that at times he almost looks lazy putting it up. He’s basically carrying your team right now without Klay.
Yeah, until Oubre remembers how to shoot it's scary how little talent they have, particularly on the offensive end. Steph should be in the MVP conversation if he can drag this current roster to the playoffs.