'19-'20 Warriors: who's left?

Sam Ray Not

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Geez. Well that's a harsh toke. I was thinking a couple months, tops, which at least might have given a glimmer of hope for a quixotic late season playoff push.

HRB, collect your over/under money now. :confused:
 

Sam Ray Not

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So in the span of six games (the last two playoff games and the first four regular season games) that makes:

Curry: Out three months "minimum" with a broken hand
Durant: Blown Achilles, out a year
Thompson: Torn ACL, out a year (or so)
Cousins: Torn ACL, out a year (or so)
Looney: Out god-knows-how-long with what sounds a lot like the quad tendinopathy that cost Kawhi a year
Livingston: Retired at age 32 with chronic debilitating knee pain

Final Destination VI: Warriors 2019 Edition?
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Imagine the takes if the Warriors somehow get the first pick and either keep it or trade it plus bodies for another star player.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I'd say it's time to tank, but they might be legitimately bad enough to not need to.
Might be? Barring a massive leap forward from one or more of the younguns, this could be a bottom three NBA roster right now. I’d also assume they’ll liberally load-manage Draymond now (which I suppose is what is meant by “tanking”).
 

lovegtm

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Imagine the takes if the Warriors somehow get the first pick and either keep it or trade it plus bodies for another star player.
I mean—any team with stars locked up could tank away a year, they just don’t, for the obvious reasons.

I dislike the Warriors as much as the next guy, but that would feel legit, since every team has this option.
 

lovegtm

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Might be? Barring a massive leap forward from one or more of the younguns, this could be a bottom three NBA roster right now. I’d also assume they’ll liberally load-manage Draymond now (which I suppose is what is meant by “tanking”).
Yeah, Draymond could play 48 minutes a game and I don’t think it would matter much. They’re bad.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, Draymond could play 48 minutes a game and I don’t think it would matter much. They’re bad.
They're getting worse. Dray injured his finger last night.

Is a home loss to the Bobcats tonight the final stake through the Warriors heart?

or is that too "hot takey" with only 6% of the season complete :eek:
 

johnmd20

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The starting lineup looks like a G League team.

Life comes at you fast. I can't say I'm disappointed. The Cavs fell apart last year, it was an ugly season. This year, it's the Warriors. Good bye Golden State, you had an awesome run. But please don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.
 

Sam Ray Not

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The starting lineup looks like a G League team.

Life comes at you fast. I can't say I'm disappointed. The Cavs fell apart last year, it was an ugly season. This year, it's the Warriors. Good bye Golden State, you had an awesome run. But please don't let the door hit you on the ass on the way out.
I mean, next year they’ll still have Curry, Thompson and Green in their primes, plus 24 y.o. DLo and Looney, a Top 5-ish draft pick, a $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade, and (with the hard cap lifted) the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with. Plus potentially some cheap, solid young depth with all the run the kids are gonna get this season.

Seems more like “see you next year” than goodbye, but we shall see.
 

benhogan

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I mean, next year they’ll still have Curry, Thompson and Green in their primes, plus 24 y.o. DLo and Looney, a Top 5-ish draft pick, a $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade, and (with the hard cap lifted) the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with. Plus potentially some cheap, solid young depth with all the run the kids are gonna get this season.

Seems more like “see you next year” than goodbye, but we shall see.
See you the next few years.

Warriors theme song next year:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rblYSKz_VnI
 

johnmd20

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I mean, next year they’ll still have Curry, Thompson and Green in their primes, plus 24 y.o. DLo and Looney, a Top 5-ish draft pick, a $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade, and (with the hard cap lifted) the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with. Plus potentially some cheap, solid young depth with all the run the kids are gonna get this season.

Seems more like “see you next year” than goodbye, but we shall see.
You might be right but it feels ambitious.

"Well, at one time, you've got it, and then you lose it, and it's gone forever. All walks of life."
 

Euclis20

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I mean, next year they’ll still have Curry, Thompson and Green in their primes, plus 24 y.o. DLo and Looney, a Top 5-ish draft pick, a $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade, and (with the hard cap lifted) the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with. Plus potentially some cheap, solid young depth with all the run the kids are gonna get this season.

Seems more like “see you next year” than goodbye, but we shall see.
They'll be back in the sense that they'll be back in the playoff mix next year, but those guys will be 32/30/30 (which is, charitably, the end of most players primes). Thompson will be coming back from an injury that seems to take most pro athletes 2 full years to be 100%, Green's numbers have declined pretty steadily since his mid 20s, and all three guys just completed 5 straight trips to the finals, essentially adding another full season to their odometers. Lebron held up just fine at that age and workload, but he's Lebron. Outside of Looney, all the low cost high impact role players who played major roles in their title seasons are gone.

Absent a major move (getting lucky in the lottery or moving Russell for a more compatible all star) their days as a finals contender appear to be over. Those are both real possibilities, but realistically the last 7-8 games this franchise has played could not have gone any worse in the short or long term.
 

johnmd20

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Absent a major move (getting lucky in the lottery or moving Russell for a more compatible all star) their days as a finals contender appear to be over. Those are both real possibilities, but realistically the last 7-8 games this franchise has played could not have gone any worse in the short or long term.
Could be the worst 8 games for a single franchise in the history of the NBA. From a dynastic title contender to jetsam and flotsam in a handful of games. It's somewhat unprecedented.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Could be the worst 8 games for a single franchise in the history of the NBA. From a dynastic title contender to jetsam and flotsam in a handful of games. It's somewhat unprecedented.
*Six games, but yeah. Everyone on the team getting injured sucks. Same would apply to any great team ever. The team right now has $125M in inactive players and $12.5M total in healthy bodies.

And yet: Charlotte alert, but Ky Bowman, Eric Paschall and co. are somehow leading by 5 at the half. :)
 
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benhogan

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Given Looney's contract, I can almost guarantee his hips are bad, probably impingement issues on the way to IT territory. He had earlier surgical intervention than IT so that might help, plus he doesn't rely on quickness as much as IT.

Still might be a good to great contract for the next 3 years, who knows. But there is almost no way that many GMs are dumb enough to not top that offer by quite a bit unless the medical staff had some input.
I wanted to bump this post from July 1

SRN, what is Looney's status?

maybe radsoxfan correctly picked up on Looney's extremely team-friendly deal
 

Sam Ray Not

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28022844/debating-nba-absolute-best-worst-teams
4. The worst team in the Western Conference is ...
Pelton: The Golden State Warriors. The Memphis Grizzlies played their way out of this spot by dropping 137 points on the Timberwolves on Wednesday. The Warriors will surely end up with a better record once they get D'Angelo Russell, Draymond Green and eventually Stephen Curry back. But right now, if you had to play any West team, you'd pick the one that won the conference each of the past four seasons.
I have no issue with the Warriors earning that distinction in their current state, but is too much to expect ESPN's self-styled "brainy numbers guy" to be able to fvcking count to five?
 

axx

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2-11 now. I don't know if this is the end of the run completely, but they better hit on the draft pick.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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2-11 now. I don't know if this is the end of the run completely, but they better hit on the draft pick.
And Russell is hurt again with a nagging finger injury.

As a side note, I am not sure what to think about RAPTOR but the bottom of their rankings is a who's who of Warriors including Draymond Green. And even if you don't like/trust RAPTOR, he rates very low via DWS as well.

The caveat is that sample sizes are small, Green is notorious for "playing himself into shape" and individual player defense is partly a function of the surrounding rotation - and as we all know, Golden State has nobody around him at present (despite his scoring Paschall is ranked very low using RAPTOR). But those thinking that Green may be traded should monitor his play going forward. A Draymond Green who doesn't do Draymond Green things on defense isn't a very valuable player. For the record, I think he will be fine but it definitely bears watching.
 

Sam Ray Not

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2-11 now. I don't know if this is the end of the run completely, but they better hit on the draft pick.
Lol, would the likelihood that it’s the end of the run, or the exigency to hit on the draft pick be different if they were 5-8? If anything, I'd think Warriors futures are (marginally) increased by shooting the moon the way they are right now.

To state the obvious: what we’re seeing right now tells us next to nothing about what to expect next season. They barely have enough healthy bodies now to legally play games without forfeiting. Undrafted Ky Bowman will likely be playing 35-40 minutes a game for the next couple weeks with D’Angelo on the shelf (fwiw @DJBMH, it's a sprained thumb that he sustained last night, not a "lingering finger injury"). Jordan Poole is a 20 y.o. baby; and as I noted during last night's game thread, probably the worst player in the NBA right now given his current inability to shoot, pass, rebound, or defend. Etc. Etc.

Still, I think the overall GSW picture is brighter than it was entering this season, whether they end up hitting on the pick or not (or trading it). Just to recap, next offseason will bring the following, barring injury:

• A rested and motivated Steph Curry (statistically the best player in the NBA the last six seasons) in his late prime
• A rested and motivated Klay in his prime
• A rested and motivated Draymond, who may be in mild decline, but tends to play pretty well with the Splash Bros in games that matter
• 24 y.o. D'Angelo Russell
• 24 y.o. Kevon Looney, last year's #9 rated PF by RPM
• 24 y.o. Eric Paschall, who looks like not only a highly projectable NBA rotation player, but the type of defensively versatile wing-forward who by next season will already be tough and athletic enough to happily bang against guys like LeBron and Kawhi in big playoff games
• 23 y.o. Spellman and Bowman, who both already look like hard-nosed NBA players
• A $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade
• The hardcap lifted, so the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with, and an ownership group motivated to spend
• A top 5-ish draft pick
• A coaching staff and core group of players with championship pedigree and experience

I'm sure there will be plenty of wheeling and dealing between now and next summer, so it's impossible to say what they'll look like in 2020-2021, but I don't think there's any other team that you can confidently say has a better-looking core of assets going into next season. There are a whole bunch of maybes (LAC, LAL, HOU, MIL, BOS, PHI, BKN, e.g.) but is there another single team that right now looks like a significantly better than even bet to be better than the 2020-21 Warriors? I think the Clips' roster (plus coaching, front office, etc.) may be the only one I'd take over GS' if you twisted my arm. And GS will (likely) be coming off two more months' rest than them.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Lol, would the likelihood that it’s the end of the run, or the exigency to hit on the draft pick be different if they were 5-8? If anything, I'd think Warriors futures are (marginally) increased by shooting the moon the way they are right now.

To state the obvious: what we’re seeing right now tells us next to nothing about what to expect next season. They barely have enough healthy bodies now to legally play games without forfeiting. Undrafted Ky Bowman will likely be playing 35-40 minutes a game for the next couple weeks with D’Angelo on the shelf (fwiw @DJBMH, it's a sprained thumb that he sustained last night, not a "lingering finger injury"). Jordan Poole is a 20 y.o. baby; and as I noted during last night's game thread, probably the worst player in the NBA right now given his current inability to shoot, pass, rebound, or defend. Etc. Etc.

Still, I think the overall GSW picture is brighter than it was entering this season, whether they end up hitting on the pick or not (or trading it). Just to recap, next offseason will bring the following, barring injury:

• A rested and motivated Steph Curry (statistically the best player in the NBA the last six seasons) in his late prime
• A rested and motivated Klay in his prime
• A rested and motivated Draymond, who may be in mild decline, but tends to play pretty well with the Splash Bros in games that matter
• 24 y.o. D'Angelo Russell
• 24 y.o. Kevon Looney, last year's #9 rated PF by RPM
• 24 y.o. Eric Paschall, who looks like not only a highly projectable NBA rotation player, but the type of defensively versatile wing-forward who by next season will already be tough and athletic enough to happily bang against guys like LeBron and Kawhi in big playoff games
• 23 y.o. Spellman and Bowman, who both already look like hard-nosed NBA players
• A $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade
• The hardcap lifted, so the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with, and an ownership group motivated to spend
• A top 5-ish draft pick
• A coaching staff and core group of players with championship pedigree and experience

I'm sure there will be plenty of wheeling and dealing between now and next summer, so it's impossible to say what they'll look like in 2020-2021, but I don't think there's any other team that you can confidently say has a better-looking core of assets going into next season. There are a whole bunch of maybes (LAC, LAL, HOU, MIL, BOS, PHI, BKN, e.g.) but is there another single team that right now looks like a significantly better than even bet to be better than the 2020-21 Warriors? I think the Clips' roster (plus coaching, front office, etc.) may be the only one I'd take over GS' if you twisted my arm. And GS will (likely) be coming off two more months' rest than them.
I think anyone who writes off a team that features a healthy Steph Curry and Klay Thompson as well as Draymond Green (again, I assume he will be fine as they play more games) is wishcasting more than anything. The base case is that this year's team will miss the playoffs but, assuming Thompson is ok when he comes back and they somehow sneak in, do you think anyone would be thrilled to face the Warriors? I don't but then again, I, like you, assume that the Warriors we see now are not the Warriors we will see next year or even in the second half.
 

benhogan

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Lol, would the likelihood that it’s the end of the run, or the exigency to hit on the draft pick be different if they were 5-8? If anything, I'd think Warriors futures are (marginally) increased by shooting the moon the way they are right now.

To state the obvious: what we’re seeing right now tells us next to nothing about what to expect next season. They barely have enough healthy bodies now to legally play games without forfeiting. Undrafted Ky Bowman will likely be playing 35-40 minutes a game for the next couple weeks with D’Angelo on the shelf (fwiw @DJBMH, it's a sprained thumb that he sustained last night, not a "lingering finger injury"). Jordan Poole is a 20 y.o. baby; and as I noted during last night's game thread, probably the worst player in the NBA right now given his current inability to shoot, pass, rebound, or defend. Etc. Etc.

Still, I think the overall GSW picture is brighter than it was entering this season, whether they end up hitting on the pick or not (or trading it). Just to recap, next offseason will bring the following, barring injury:

• A rested and motivated Steph Curry (statistically the best player in the NBA the last six seasons) in his late prime
• A rested and motivated Klay in his prime
• A rested and motivated Draymond, who may be in mild decline, but tends to play pretty well with the Splash Bros in games that matter
• 24 y.o. D'Angelo Russell
• 24 y.o. Kevon Looney, last year's #9 rated PF by RPM
• 24 y.o. Eric Paschall, who looks like not only a highly projectable NBA rotation player, but the type of defensively versatile wing-forward who by next season will already be tough and athletic enough to happily bang against guys like LeBron and Kawhi in big playoff games
• 23 y.o. Spellman and Bowman, who both already look like hard-nosed NBA players
• A $17M trade exception from the Iguodala trade
• The hardcap lifted, so the taxpayer MLE and unlimited vet min contracts to play with, and an ownership group motivated to spend
• A top 5-ish draft pick
• A coaching staff and core group of players with championship pedigree and experience

I'm sure there will be plenty of wheeling and dealing between now and next summer, so it's impossible to say what they'll look like in 2020-2021, but I don't think there's any other team that you can confidently say has a better-looking core of assets going into next season. There are a whole bunch of maybes (LAC, LAL, HOU, MIL, BOS, PHI, BKN, e.g.) but is there another single team that right now looks like a significantly better than even bet to be better than the 2020-21 Warriors? I think the Clips' roster (plus coaching, front office, etc.) may be the only one I'd take over GS' if you twisted my arm. And GS will (likely) be coming off two more months' rest than them.
Yep, agree with all of this and odds are it will be a top 3 pick (since they have next to no roster now).

We've been discussing, in other threads, all the opportunities GSW will have going forward. There will be plenty of excellent players to add to Curry/Klay. I think they should look to move Dray to a 2020 contender for an asset after Dec 15th. Dray has been a great role player, but I suspect as he ages he'll lose a step & his defense will continue its trend lower. Then he'll just be an expensive small-ball center, that can't shoot and gets lots of techs.

BUT anyone writing them off for 2021, when the current Celtics start peaking, will be sadly mistaken.
 

Sam Ray Not

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This is good stuff, keep it coming. I'm keeping an eye on the Warriors. I see them re-loading for a 2-3yr run starting next season, which lines up with the Celtics title ambitions. I see Bob packaging all these kids (Bowman, Paschall, Poole etc) that are getting valuable NBA minutes & a high 2020 pick & future picks & D.Lo for a couple of studs that line up with Dray, Steph, Klay, Looney. Plus throw in a few ring chasers (AI's return) and an MLE.
@benhogan Figured here was a better place to "keep it coming" than the Melo thread, haha.

As bad as the team has been — or as good as they're been at tanking — #41 pick Eric Paschall continues to be a revelation, currently averaging 19.7 pts / 6.2 rebounds per 36 on .593 true shooting while beating up much older men in the paint. Here's where he currently stands among all NBA rookies (min. 400 minutes played):

#1 in points scored
#1 in free throws made
#1 in total rebounds
#1 in offensive rebounds
#1 in offensive rating
#3 in defensive rating
#1 in FG%
#2 in true shooting %
#3 in (lowest) turnover rate
#1 in total win shares
#1 in offensive win shares
#2 in PER

Poole's been as bad as Paschall has been great, alas, giving new meaning every game to the term "brick" (0-13 fg in his last two games). But he is still super-young (20.5). And as alluded to above, his backcourt mate Bowman has been great, on both ends of the floor. Just a non-stop dynamo of effort and toughness, to go along with eye-popping speed and hops, and decent length for a PG (6-7 wingspan). A pretty great combo in terms of NBA potential — no idea how he went undrafted. Even in last night's beatdown in ATL, he made Ice Trae's life extremely difficult, harassing him into seven turnovers.

On a related note, have any Kubrick / Arthur C. Clarke fans noted the cosmic significance of the Warriors' Bowman-Poole starting backcourt?

 
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benhogan

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I have this sneaking suspicion that the Warriors land something huge this summer, after their mini-process.

I could see Portland collapsing this season and blowing it up. Ship McCollum out to the Knicks for stuff. Then they proceed to package Lillard for D.Lo, the #1 pick and some other goodies.

Then the Warriors are back in business and the tech bros return


https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0062622/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
 

coremiller

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The Warriors aren't going to trade Russell for another small guard who needs the ball in his hands and can't defend and who's on the wrong side of the aging curve. And Lillard's supermax contract makes him untradeable.
 

benhogan

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The Warriors aren't going to trade Russell for another small guard who needs the ball in his hands and can't defend and who's on the wrong side of the aging curve. And Lillard's supermax contract makes him untradeable.
I should have prefaced, less than 1% of fake trades happen.

A lot would have to go wrong for Portland to deal the face of their franchise, but it's the NBA, where player empowerment/movement happens. Dame is no John Wall or Chris Paul value-wise if that's what you are implying? In a league that just handed Tobias Harris a max contract, Damian Lillard 2nd team all-NBA is very tradeable at the moment. I could easily think of ~15 teams that would carve out a role for him next Summer. Geez, just the thought of the Sixers packing Tobias & 3 draft picks for Dame made me shudder.

His timeline matches up with Steph and Klay. If Dame was paired up with those two it would be an absurdly quick team, that would pile up points in bunches.

My greater point was that the Warriors are positioned extremely well after this season for a 2-3yr run. The Warriors have the assets to add players around their core of Klay/Steph/Dray/Looney. So while the NBA is enjoying themselves dancing all over the Dubs, they will be back (just when the Celtics will be vying for Championships, hence my interest).

I believe they will be adding someone by dealing D.Lo/top 3 pick/other picks/Paschall/kids. Feel free to play along, its pure conjecture on who they add next Summer.
 

Sam Ray Not

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The Warriors aren't going to trade Russell for another small guard who needs the ball in his hands and can't defend and who's on the wrong side of the aging curve.
Agreed — and Lillard's a few inches smaller than DLo, too. The biggest thing that deal has going for it is the sentimental connection to Lillard as an Oakland scion, but even that has faded with the team's move to SF (and Dame's recent criticism of same). It's not the worst DLo trade idea I've heard, but I feel like if we're not going to flip him for a modern day wing/forward who can do battle with the likes of LeBron, Kawhi and PG, we might as well just hold onto him. Beyond the fact that DLo is 6-5 with a 6-10 wingspan, he has the advantage of being 23, so a potential bridge to the "next Warrior dynasty" (not that I really care too much about that, since when Steph retires I'll enter an extended period of hoops depression).

Absent the Giannis pipe dream, Ben Simmons is still the guy I have my eye on. DLo seems like a great fit with Philly, even if Simmons is obviously the better player overall. From our end, Simmons is about as perfect a complement to the Splash Bros as it gets. Hoping for Philly to collapse a bit to grease the wheels.

Fun with Player A / Player B / Player C...

(Per 36 minutes)
Player A: 27.8 points on .571 true shooting
Player B: 28.9 points on .536 true shooting
Player C: 26.4 points on .578 true shooting

A is D'Angelo Russell, B is Kawhi Leonard, C is LeBron James.

By way of news: it looks like DLo may be back from his sprained hand tonight vs. Charlotte and Scary Terry, to continue building up his trade value his impressive growth within the Warriors' system.
 

lovegtm

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Agreed — and Lillard's a few inches smaller than DLo, too. The biggest thing that deal has going for it is the sentimental connection to Lillard as an Oakland scion, but even that has faded with the team's move to SF (and Dame's recent criticism of same). It's not the worst DLo trade idea I've heard, but I feel like if we're not going to flip him for a modern day wing/forward who can do battle with the likes of LeBron, Kawhi and PG, we might as well just hold onto him. Beyond the fact that DLo is 6-5 with a 6-10 wingspan, he has the advantage of being 23, so a potential bridge to the "next Warrior dynasty" (not that I really care too much about that, since when Steph retires I'll enter an extended period of hoops depression).

Absent the Giannis pipe dream, Ben Simmons is still the guy I have my eye on. DLo seems like a great fit with Philly, even if Simmons is obviously the better player overall. From our end, Simmons is about as perfect a complement to the Splash Bros as it gets. Hoping for Philly to collapse a bit to grease the wheels.

Fun with Player A / Player B / Player C...

(Per 36 minutes)
Player A: 27.8 points on .571 true shooting
Player B: 28.9 points on .536 true shooting
Player C: 26.4 points on .578 true shooting

A is D'Angelo Russell, B is Kawhi Leonard, C is LeBron James.

By way of news: it looks like DLo may be back from his sprained hand tonight vs. Charlotte and Scary Terry, to continue building up his trade value his impressive growth within the Warriors' system.
Normally I'd say Simmons is a pipe dream, but with a top 3 pick and extra stuff attached, that could make sense for Philly. Especially if they're high on Thybulle on the wing. Might have to be a 3-teamer or Philly immediately flipping the pick(s) though, given their win-now imperative. Idk...trades with young studs like Simmons just starting their 2nd contract are so hard to pull the trigger on, odds are against it.
 

bowiac

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Agree DLo as a salary dump, and a top 3 pick would make some sense for Philly if it turns out this core isn't enough for them to win with. That's an offseason deal however.
 

Kliq

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How effective would Simmons be on Golden State? He would hurt their spacing, meaning they would have at least two non-shooters on the floor with Draymond and Simmons; plus he also is most effective on offense as the lead guard, which isn't how he would play with Curry. He is kind of like the anti-Durant. That would seem like a lot to give up for a player that is a questionable fit in GS. I feel like optimally GS would want a shooting wing that can be a versatile defender, like a Khris Middleton type, that arguably wouldn't be as costly as D-Lo/Salary dump/Top 3 pick.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Portland trading Lillard for Russell is extremely unlikely. Olshey would be run out of town or, if it was a successor, they would be as well. And its hard to see Golden State featuring Curry and Lillard on the court together for a variety of reasons.

If we are just throwing stuff against the wall here without regard for contracts/cap room as well as fit, optics etc., why not concoct a Russell for Kawhi trade? Its about as likely as a Russell for Lillard deal and Leonard suits Golden State way better.
 

TripleOT

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How about Lillard for Kemba, the 7th pick, and the 26th pick in the 2020 draft?
 

lovegtm

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Portland trading Lillard for Russell is extremely unlikely. Olshey would be run out of town or, if it was a successor, they would be as well. And its hard to see Golden State featuring Curry and Lillard on the court together for a variety of reasons.

If we are just throwing stuff against the wall here without regard for contracts/cap room as well as fit, optics etc., why not concoct a Russell for Kawhi trade? Its about as likely as a Russell for Lillard deal and Leonard suits Golden State way better.
I agree that Lillard isn't happening, but it's being mentioned because Portland has some incentive to do it. LAC have absolutely zero reason to trade Kawhi. Even leaving aside how good he is, given what they gave up to get him and how their future is mortgaged, he and AD are probably the two least tradeable players in the league.

For the Dubs to land that star trade of which you dream, you need a guy who is older on a team needing to reset (Lillard), a bad fit (Simmons), or forcing his way out (possibly Giannis if the Bucks flame out in the playoffs). There are probably other guys I'm not thinking of, but those are the rough parameters.
 

lovegtm

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How about Lillard for Kemba, the 7th pick, and the 26th pick in the 2020 draft?
Lillard makes $54M in 2024-2025 (2 years after Kemba’s last season). There’s no chance the Celtics give up a premium asset to get that—if anything, both Lillard and Kemba are guys you want to get off of after age 31-32.
 

benhogan

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I agree that Lillard isn't happening, but it's being mentioned because Portland has some incentive to do it. LAC have absolutely zero reason to trade Kawhi. Even leaving aside how good he is, given what they gave up to get him and how their future is mortgaged, he and AD are probably the two least tradeable players in the league.

For the Dubs to land that star trade of which you dream, you need a guy who is older on a team needing to reset (Lillard), a bad fit (Simmons), or forcing his way out (possibly Giannis if the Bucks flame out in the playoffs). There are probably other guys I'm not thinking of, but those are the rough parameters.
thank you

Most trade conjecture is just an exercise on projecting team/player motivations and timelines, which you eloquently explained.
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I agree that Lillard isn't happening, but it's being mentioned because Portland has some incentive to do it. LAC have absolutely zero reason to trade Kawhi. Even leaving aside how good he is, given what they gave up to get him and how their future is mortgaged, he and AD are probably the two least tradeable players in the league.

For the Dubs to land that star trade of which you dream, you need a guy who is older on a team needing to reset (Lillard), a bad fit (Simmons), or forcing his way out (possibly Giannis if the Bucks flame out in the playoffs). There are probably other guys I'm not thinking of, but those are the rough parameters.
Its extremely unlikely that Portland is going to trade Lillard. Anything is possible but the guy is the face of the franchise and is extremely well regarded by the organization based on what I have read. Trading him would likely signal a failure by this regime and that a full rebuild is coming.

While Portland has struggled to date and there has been speculation in the media about McCollum being moved, there has been nothing about Lillard which is why he is about as likely to be moved as Leonard. In short, neither is going to happen which is why we have already spent too many words discussing the idea.

That doesn't even begin to address the problematic fit of Lillard and Curry.

My point is if we are going to make up unreasonable trades that ignore team dynamics, roster fit, cap and salary, lets go big.
 

Sam Ray Not

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How effective would Simmons be on Golden State? He would hurt their spacing, meaning they would have at least two non-shooters on the floor with Draymond and Simmons; plus he also is most effective on offense as the lead guard, which isn't how he would play with Curry. He is kind of like the anti-Durant. That would seem like a lot to give up for a player that is a questionable fit in GS. I feel like optimally GS would want a shooting wing that can be a versatile defender, like a Khris Middleton type, that arguably wouldn't be as costly as D-Lo/Salary dump/Top 3 pick.
All pretty legit concerns. But with Simmons the main point is that the combo of talent and size is so rare that you grab it if it ever comes available and figure out stuff like "fit" later. Which is basically the same logic Philly should use and probably will use, with the one caveat that their other, more beloved young franchise player will probably never be a great fit with Simmons offensively.

Once you have Simmons and Splash Bros in place, I don't think the rest is too hard to work out, tbh. Simmons may be one guy in the league that you can put straight up against the likes of LeBron, Kawhi, George, and Siakam and not give away anything physically. As he enters his mid 20s, he may even have a physical advantage over those guys. Having a guy like that is a huge part of the battle in today's NBA; and the biggest reason teams like Utah, Portland, and Denver will never do jack. Heck, as he continues to add strength to his 6-10 frame, you can even put him on guys like Giannis, KAT, AD, Capela and without giving too much if anything away physically. I could easily see him playing the 5 in a pitched playoff battle with Houston, Milwaukee, or one of the LA teams.

Simmons-Steph-Klay is about as dream a basketball fit as it gets, imho, with Simmons basically filling the joint role of the aging Draymond and departed Iguodala & Livingston, only with better length and athleticism. Steph is equally devastating on and off ball (perennially the best catch-and-shoot guy in the league), so I don't see the fit with him and Simmons as at all problematic; plus you'd stagger their minutes. As in the Iguodala/Livingston era, a backcourt of Simmons+ Klay allows you to go onto beast-mode defensively when Steph sits or is injured (e.g. the 2016 playoffs v. HOU or 2018 v. SAS, two series in which they totally crushed their opponent defensively with Steph on the shelf).

As you point out, the offensive fit with Draymond is sub-optimal, so you'd either stagger their minutes, or ponder moving Draymond for a big who can shoot better. Alternatively, Villanova bruise brothers Paschall and Spellman — currently shooting 32% and 34% from three respectively as NBA babies, and both locked up on super-cheap contracts for the next three seasons — become those guys.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Heck, with Ja still “week to week,” Paschall is the ROY leader in the clubhouse right now — 393 points to Nunn’s 335 and Ja’s 317, on way better efficiency than either (.591 TS to .529 Nunn and .537 Morant). He’s also the rookie leader in total rebounds.

Link.

As far as the “Paschanimal” monicker ... I gotta be super nerdy and point out that it was actually coined by the fairly awful new Warriors broadcasting tandem of Bob Fitzgerald and Kelenna Azubuike (Fitz is awful; Kelenna is green; the great Jim Barnett is sorely missed), who ran it by Broadcaster Klay earlier in that same game. Klay’s polite reaction was that it was “pretty good,” and he used it on that playcall more as an ironic shout-out to Kelenna and Fitz.

Anyway, I’m pretty sure none of the players or coaches actually call him that. The nicknames I hear most often among players for him and Spellman are “E” and “O” — which is to say, his nickname is still TBD. Suggestions are welcome!
 
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