16 Days in January—Determining Trade Deadline Activity
- Thread starter RSN Diaspora
- Start date
One hundred percent. These incremental upgrades can start adding up after a while.
Jokic warps things, but why not Barton? why not Green? they also have started. MM has been + the previous seasons when coming off the bench. I suspect it has to do with his high A/TO and 3pt shooting, which usually leads to good things (like your guy Tyus)
Just going off the article and Hollinger (exactly why I put down the less advantageous trade scenario for the C's - this place is predictable if nothing else)
Perhaps the Celtics could send Schroder, Aaron Nesmith, and Romeo Langford to Denver in exchange for Morris, old friend Jeff Green, and a second-round pick. Just a thought.
Why it makes sense for the Nuggets
While a possible trade would be prudent for the Celtics, it would also be wise for the Nuggets.
It’s no secret that Murray’s return will hurt Morris. With defensive-minded Austin Rivers, crafty Facundo Campazzo, and shifty Bones Hyland in the mix at point guard, the Nuggets have almost too much depth at the position. With Murray out, Schroder and Jokic could play at the 1, and with him back, Schroder could slide to the 2, come off the bench, or head elsewhere. Jokic is basically the NBA’s best point guard as it is, and putting the ball in his hands even more is never a bad thing.
Plus, they already have elite playmaking with Jokic, Murray, and Aaron Gordon, so they could depend more on shooters Bryn Forbes and Zeke Nnaji to complement that core and spread the floor.
Morris has been serviceable and reliable for the Nuggets, but they’ve had five years to tell him how they feel. With Morris likely due for a pay raise in 2024, the Nuggets would benefit from trading him this year before his contract becomes a concern.
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Eventually blocked/relegated, money, depth - the usual suspects when an interesting player is kicked around in a fake trade
Yep, all fake trades/player movements have less than a 1% chance of happening.
Just don't want to add that disclaimer every time a good player is mentioned
Based on the final voting, there’s no way Jaylen Brown is an All Star, right? So, the Celtics shouldn’t need to worry about the potential cap implications of Brown’s AS bonus, right?
I agree Morris is an upgrade on PP, but I wouldn't give a lot for that relatively minor upgrade and I don't see why Denver would do it, really....they have another year to look for value for Morris. So, if I'm Denver I want an overpay and as Celts I view this as an incremental improvement and wouldn't want to pay a lot.
As to Brown and all-star selection the one thing to consider is how many guys on that list are injured or might take 'rest time' instead of playing...
As to Brown and all-star selection the one thing to consider is how many guys on that list are injured or might take 'rest time' instead of playing...
I think the thought process is that DEN is going to get Murray back who will eat a lot of PG minutes, and they just drafted Hyland who they like, so Morris is going to lose minutes.
And while around $9M the next two years isn't bad for his talent, they have the 30M a year MPJ contract kicking in next year and unless JaMychal Green turns down his 8M player option, nothing really coming off, so there are some significant tax ramifications the next few years for them, as Jokic needs a new deal in 2023, same with Barton (if they keep him). Nuggets next year will have 3 guys making 30 or more, another guy at 20m, and a guy around 15. That's $125M for just their top , so they need to find ways to fill bench spots cheaper.
I think it's more likely to happen after the season though the more I look at it. Both teams do most of their business then the Celtics take Morris into the TT TPE before it expires would be my guess.
Those are some really terrible reasons for DEN to move him.
defensive-minded Austin Rivers, crafty Facundo Campazzo, and shifty Bones Hyland - Those guys are all way worse players than Morris, and just because there are cute descriptors around them (crafty! shifty!) doesn't make them good players.
elite playmaking with Jokic, Murray, and Aaron Gordon - True, except the part of Gordon being an elite playmaker. Also except the fact that Harris is not an elite playmaker and him being on the team doesn't preclude Jokic and Murray from doing their thing.
With Morris likely due for a pay raise in 2024, the Nuggets would benefit from trading him this year before his contract becomes a concern - Morris is paid about right. Sure, he may get the full MLE somewhere, although I am skeptical of that. His contract status in 2024 is not an issue.
I think the simple one is that they want to drop salary next year. Nothing about DEN's past makes me think they're going deep into the tax when they could limit it by dropping one of many bench PGs. 2024 is silly, they don't want to pay him in 2022 is my guess.
OK, Monte Morris goes into the 99% bucket of fake trades.
I did laugh when I saw "defensive-minded" as an Austin Rivers descriptor. If you watch Denver home games the Hyland hype is real, a fan favorite with his energy/play. I had to also look up the 3pt shooting prowess of Nnaji.
Moving goalposts much? If Monte Morris is a tiny upgrade to Dennis Schroder, why wouldn't Denver do it?
Getting recent lottery picks probably interests Denver. I mean teams like Denver, Toronto, Miami, Memphis deserve credit for the development of young players/draft picks. They probably value youngsters/draft picks a lot higher than the Celtics since they excel at development.
Guess we wait for Ja to walk through that door???
The C's find a ballhandler/PG through:
1. Focus on Smart - hope he improves
2. Hope for development from Pritchard, Romeo, Begarin, Thomas or Mader? Begarin has promise.
3. Free agency/S&T
4. Draft
5. Trade
I will add one more thing about speculated Fake Trades on SoSH over the last year:
1. Horford for Kemba+ was relentlessly kicked around here last year, and recall many NEVER happening commentary, due to the scoring prowess of Kemba and other nonsense.
2. Tristan Thompson to Sac for Delon Wright was also pitched around here at the end of the season because both team needs/blocked/salary. That also was NEVER happening
Sometimes the Cellar mouth breathers bat over 1%
Bobby Marks just dropped an absolutely amazing fake trade on the Lowe Post:
NYK send: Kemba, FOurnier, Burks
LAL send: Westbrook, 2027 1st (lottery protected)
Lowe's head almost exploded.
NYK send: Kemba, FOurnier, Burks
LAL send: Westbrook, 2027 1st (lottery protected)
Lowe's head almost exploded.
Are Kemba and Fournier required to go everywhere together? I can’t imagine a worse backcourt skillset pairing yet they followed each other to NY and now Marks wants to move them together again? I will say that this isn’t as outrageous as it sounds…..the Lakers need to move Westbrook and the Knicks need to clear out their crowded and flawed backcourt. Maybe just not in an exchange with each other though.
For a guy that has scored 40pts in a game & is having one of his best 3pt shooting years, it didn't take long for Kemba to turn into $8.7MM flotsam in NY
If teams would just stop starting & playing him big minutes and turned him into a bench oven they'd like Kemba a lot more.
surrounding Bron/AD with shooting isn't the worst idea. Like how Monk has played with them so far
NYK might like the idea of a shake-up
Yeah, Marks is a Knicks fan, he was pitching it as maybe actually good for the Knicks this year, plus obviously long term cap relief.
As for the pairing, it is mostly that Kemba is 8.7M that the Knicks can add to match on Russ. But honestly I think it makes sense for LAL. They need shooters, and they probably wouldn't play them both, but one of the two is hideable on D and drastically changes the 3pt shooting.
If they C's want to ensure they are under the tax, they cannot count on this at all. The deadline is before the all star game and there are always last minute injury additions even if Jaylen isn't named to the initial set of reserves. There's 6 spots that will be voted by the coaches.
JT, Harden, and Zach Lavine seem like locks. There should be 3 spots for JB, Holiday, Garland, Butler, Bridges, Allen, VanVleet, Iriving. Beal, Lamelo, Sabonis if I'm not missing someone obvious. Don't see Irving being voted in by coaches. Butler has sat himself out before. There's definitely a decent possibility of JB making the final roster.
Ball and VanFleet I think would make it before JB, for sure - unless JB really lights it up for the next few games.
There are seven reserves 3 forwards, 2 guards and 2 wildcards. Durant is injured and a starter - Silver will name his replacement. So at least eight spots.
The consensus among media folks that I've read or seems to be:
Front court reserve locks = Butler and Allen.
Guard reserve lock = Lavine
Third forward spot discussion: Tatum, Siakam, Sabonis, Middleton
Guard reserve discussion: Van Vleet, Holiday, Garland, Lamelo.
I can't see any universe where Irving makes the roster.
It seems unlikely to me that Brown beats out VF and Ball. Holiday, Garland - he could beat one of those if there's another spot to be had.
I just hope the Celtics don't make an unnecessary move to avoid a bonus that doesn't happen anyway.
I would guess that really Butler, Allen, Tatum, Lavine and Van Vleet are locks. That leaves 2 wildcards plus injury replacements. I think there is a solid shot Brown makes it, and I would make all my moves accordingly.
How about Goran Dragic? What is Toronto doing with him anyway? He is on an expiring at 19.4 million.
Apparently Dragic was away from TOR for "personal reasons" but showed at Heat game (not playing TOR) recently.
Mavs are interested in him. TOR might be buying him out. https://www.si.com/nba/mavericks/news/dallas-mavs-luka-doncic-goran-dragic-raptors-buyout-miami-heat-rumors#gid=ci029876fef00025ef&pid=luka-dragic-clutch-
Cs should definitely look into him if he gets bought out. I can't see Cs trading for him as they don't really have that slary slot to give up.
He can either be used as a salary ballast along with an asset in an acquisition or they could try to get an asset for him in a cap relief trade, where Toronto takes a on longer term negative contract.
Toronto seems like they are not just the Celtics competition in the standings but also for skills via the trade market. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, they do before the deadline.
He reportedly wants to play with Luka if he gets bought out. If true, the only way to get him is in a trade.
Dallas, like Boston can only offer him the minimum I believe. There has got to be some other teams that could use him who still have part of their MLE available?
I doubt he cares much about a million or so, he'll probably get bought out by sacrificing 2.6-3 million, so right around his minimum, so he loses very little and TOR claws back some money.
So one of the reasons that it makes some sense for Morey to hold Simmons if he's pretty confident Harden wants to go to PHI is here:
https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/the-salary-math-behind-the-james-harden-situation-1381/
Harden could opt out and sign with PHI (if they cleared the cap space) and make about 4/200.
However what Harden WANTS to do is opt-in, get traded then extend. because he'd make 5/275 or so.
If you want Brooklyn to agree to that, you probably have to give them real value, because otherwise they have an incentive to let him opt in for another go.
https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba/the-salary-math-behind-the-james-harden-situation-1381/
Harden could opt out and sign with PHI (if they cleared the cap space) and make about 4/200.
However what Harden WANTS to do is opt-in, get traded then extend. because he'd make 5/275 or so.
If you want Brooklyn to agree to that, you probably have to give them real value, because otherwise they have an incentive to let him opt in for another go.
View: https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine/status/1488201567799029765
Mark Stein drops a note that Schroder is expected to be traded for primarily tax relief.
Mark Stein drops a note that Schroder is expected to be traded for primarily tax relief.
Purgatory we are in. There is no worse or more frustrating place to be for an NBA fanbase. C’mon Brad keep scouting those C and D level college prospects! Giving him a chance though……I don’t think it will take long to see if he can make the leap Danny did in this position. Rookie summer I thought was good with hands tied……this summer will be much more telling and the following summer even more.
Its really hard to grade a potential trade without knowing all the details. That won't stop us though!
That said, let's actually see if the Celtics just cut payroll here. Schroder may be dealt for financial reasons but that doesn't preclude other moves that both reshape the roster while also shoring up their cap.
That said, let's actually see if the Celtics just cut payroll here. Schroder may be dealt for financial reasons but that doesn't preclude other moves that both reshape the roster while also shoring up their cap.
The idea that Stevens is limiting his scouting to C/D level prospects is laughable.
Agree that this summer will be a true test. The chances of their making a big move at this season's deadline was always remote, and those remote chances went to zero when the Wizards won some games. But I do believe Stevens knows he cannot keep "running it back w/ Smart & the Jays" and hope for the best. Not sure how that will translate just yet.
How does he make a big move without moving one of the Jays? Smart clearly has modest trade value so I question how this game changing move or sequence of moves even occurs given the current assets at Brad’s disposal. Running it back with Smart and the Jays is basically exactly what I expect this summer.
I’m only joking about scouting the Providence game. Times are tough on the non-Armenian drunk days in the game thread. I need to amuse myself somehow.
S&T is one way, have to give up far less.
Smart, his trade value is a tough determination, based on word out of places, I bet you could get John Collins in a deal centered around Smart if you really wanted.
That's exactly the type of deal I want but remain skeptical it'll ever materialize.
I would be very surprised if Collins value is that low.
Edit:Or Smart’s that high…..whichever way you want to look at it.
Apparently the asking price for Collins is a starter and a good 1st round pick.
We also have all our Picks. Maybe I am missing something but we seem to ignore the fact that if a STAR becomes available we can send Salary (Smart ++) and offer 3#1s and pick swaps. Thats enticing.
If it works we get a 3rd (presumably young) Star to add to the Js.
That leaves 3 results
1.We win or SERIOUSLY compete for championships over the next 4-5 years.
2. We end up in purgatory 5 seed land with no Picks. Which sucks but we took our shot and missed we regroup in 5 years.
3. We suck terribly, end up in worse then purgatory......so hell I guess.....and we regroup in 5 years.
(4th option....we DONT try to improve using the picks almost certainly end up in option 2 or 3 and regroup in 5 years).
So the only question I have is who will be available this summer and will 3 #1s, Swaps, Smart and some more ballast Be valuable enough to get that player?
If it works we get a 3rd (presumably young) Star to add to the Js.
That leaves 3 results
1.We win or SERIOUSLY compete for championships over the next 4-5 years.
2. We end up in purgatory 5 seed land with no Picks. Which sucks but we took our shot and missed we regroup in 5 years.
3. We suck terribly, end up in worse then purgatory......so hell I guess.....and we regroup in 5 years.
(4th option....we DONT try to improve using the picks almost certainly end up in option 2 or 3 and regroup in 5 years).
So the only question I have is who will be available this summer and will 3 #1s, Swaps, Smart and some more ballast Be valuable enough to get that player?
I;m just going off recent rumors, but a couple weeks ago all of the sudden a lot of smoke about Collins being unhappy and ATL going pretty quickly from "only in a star trade" to... 2 good pieces.
Feels like they regret the contract and/or he and Trae really don't get along.
I don’t know if they regret the contract at all as opposed to knowing that it was an overpay but he would still provide future trade value as opposed to letting him walk or receive 50 cents on the dollar in a SNT.
What are the chances that someone picked in the 15-20 range are going to be difference makers enough to make the Celtics contenders? I mean, it certainly is a route to go, but if they want to compete, they need a 3rd star that is very unlikely going to be someone drafted in that range
yeah regret is the wrong word. I think they may be feeling that they paid on the basis of moving young guys, and on the basis that they went to the ECF. And now that the team fell off they might be looking to adjust future spending by cutting a portion off that salary slot.
Plenty of really good players have been picked outside of the lottery. There are at least 2-3 ever year. The team would look completely different with Keldon Johnson, Jordan Poole or Desmond Bane. Not only that, those players would have a lot more trade value than actual picks.
This team will need to get lucky to escape purgatory.
Sure, but there are also 12-13 guys for every 1 of those, and those 12-13 have less value than a pick the moment they are selected.
It looks like the Celtics can now probably count themselves as lucky with how Robert Williams is developing. On the other hand, that 2018 draft class is looking pretty darn good, with a lot of players that are playing very well and contributing. So, I'm not even 100% sure, if you were to conduct that draft again today, that the Celtics might not be in position to draft RWIII with the 28th pick again - that draft was that good.
On the flip side, both where the picks landed, and how they have developed, the Nesmith and Langford picks have been near disasters. That doesn't mean they are each busts, we don't know that yet, but the promise of the potential for those draft positions, as well as the players that we ended up with, is just really disappointing. Romeo''s draft class, at this point in time, just looks like a pretty weak class.
On the flip side, both where the picks landed, and how they have developed, the Nesmith and Langford picks have been near disasters. That doesn't mean they are each busts, we don't know that yet, but the promise of the potential for those draft positions, as well as the players that we ended up with, is just really disappointing. Romeo''s draft class, at this point in time, just looks like a pretty weak class.
And thats my point. Not Necessarily. If they can turn those "Long shot" (as @Cellar-Door rightly points out) draft picks into a 3rd "star" then there is No reason we have to be in purgatory.
Sure, that's why they need to get lucky.
Or they need to get lucky and have a 3rd star demand a trade here because tons of other team can match our offer. Basically, they need to get lucky one way or another.