12/6 - Patriots at Bills: Age Quod Agis

BernieRicoBoomer

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Sep 20, 2007
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We see you circling those wagons like the ghosts of Buffalo past. Legend has it, nobody does that quite as well as you do. That’s good. Good for you.

As reigning division champs, you’re probably expecting to sit on top for a second straight year. You’re a daisy if you do.

The fact is…that’s our chair you’re sittin’ in. And we’re coming to take it back.
 

Ale Xander

killed off Vin Scully
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Oct 31, 2013
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Some teams circle wagons. Other teams drive those wagons to the endzone.

Go Pats!
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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As the immortal DMX said: I only gave you the crown so I could shoot it off your fucking head.

Crowns coming back home this week.
 

koufax32

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Dec 8, 2006
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This game is like a shooting guard heat check during a 15 point quarter. I will officially be excited about our prospects this season if NE somehow wins. If they do, I would guess something like 24-20. I hope some of you were able to jump on those early lines of NE +7.
 

pokey_reese

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This is the weather.com for Orchard Park on Monday Night. Scattered snow flurries and snow showers before midnight. Becoming partly cloudy later. Low 26F. Winds W at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 30%.
This is the time when we declare that bad weather leads to high variance and high variance favors the underdogs, right?
 

Rook05

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This from CBS Sports made me smile:

John Breech, CBS Sports: Patriots 23, Bills 20. “Over the past 15 years, Belichick is 25-5 against Buffalo. Although the Patriots got swept last year, they still almost pulled off an upset in their first meeting with the Bills, which was a 24-21 Buffalo win. Even in the middle of a huge rebuild, Belichick almost beat the Bills. When the Patriots went on their big free agent spending spree during the offseason, I’m 99% sure that every move they made was done with the sole purpose of ensuring that they would be able to destroy the Bills this year.”
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory

joe dokes

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This from CBS Sports made me smile:
Makes sense. BB always always talks about division games and standings. As always, it wasn't just mumbo jumbo. He knows buffalo is real competition. It's not like past years, when he could kinda sorta look past the division (in terms of team building) and think about beating Ind or KC or somesuch.
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Monday Night
Rain and snow showers likely before 10pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
 

m0ckduck

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This from CBS Sports made me smile:
Crazy too how, of those 5 losses, only 1 involved Brady under center for the full game. 2 were with Cam, 1 with Brisset, and 1 was a meaningless week 17 game where Brady sat the second half.
 

Al Zarilla

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Monday Night
Rain and snow showers likely before 10pm, then a slight chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Another test for Mac: cold and windy. Has he ever seen any of that combination? Tune up the ground game and Josh McD probably puts any passes designed for more than 15-20 yards at the bottom of the stack. I believe in Mac: smart guy, won't do anything foolish.
 

Saints Rest

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I can’t find it at the moment, but I saw a stat about how all of the Bills’ losses came against teams with top-11 (Jax is #11) rushing attacks.

if the Pats can run successfully, it will force the Bills to commit once of their two safeties into the box. That will mitigate their ability to confuse Mac with post-snap chicanery.
 

BaseballJones

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When the Pats have the ball:
- NE offense: #6 points, #15 yards
- Buf defense: #2 points, #1 yards

When the Bills have the ball:
- NE defense: #1 points, #4 yards
- Buf offense: #2 points, #4 yards

Notes:
- NE is #2 in the NFL in point differential
- NE is #3 in the NFL in turnover differential
- NE is #7 in the NFL in yardage differential
- NE is #2 in the NFL is SRS
- Buf is #1 in the NFL in point differential
- Buf is #4 in the NFL in turnover differential
- Buf is #1 in the NFL in yardage differential
- Buf is #1 in the NFL is SRS

I mean, this game tonight looks like an absolute heavyweight slugfest. Both teams are elite. Buffalo at least has the past year to build upon, in terms of whether or not we can be confident that they're actually really good. NE less so.

Tonight's weather: 35 degrees, 25 mph wind. Will be interesting to see how well Mac Jones can throw in these conditions. We know Allen has the arm to deal with it. Does Mac?

To me, the key matchup is New England's rushing attack vs. Buffalo's rush defense. NE is ranked #13 in rush yards per game, and #19 in rush yards per attempt. Buffalo is #6 in rush yards allowed per game, and #4 in rush yards allowed per attempt. It's going to be difficult for the Patriots to run the ball, especially if Buffalo loads up and dares the Pats to throw in the wind.

The last 5 games, the Bills have allowed these yardage totals on the ground: 68, 79, 70, 264, 44. That 264 was to Jonathan Taylor and Indy, who just gashed the Bills. But that's clearly an aberration. In 8 of their 11 games, Buffalo has allowed fewer than 80 rushing yards.

If somehow the Patriots can run the ball effectively, it will be huge. If not, that's a lot to put on Mac Jones' shoulders.
 

tims4wins

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Feels like red zone efficiency and/or turnovers are going to be the key tonight (I know, duh). I could envision a scenario where the Pats score as many times (or even more times) than Buffalo, but Buffalo converts TDs instead of FGs. Feeling a 20-16 type of game one way or the other.
 

Captaincoop

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It doesn't look like a super cold night up there. High of 51 today from what I can see. Mid-30s at game time is about the best you can hope for in Buffalo in December.
 

pokey_reese

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Would be very happy with an old school, 13-10 win under tough circumstances tonight. As long as the defense can keep playing up to their recent level, the short game and ST should give us enough FGs to keep it tight.
 

JOBU

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I don’t have a great feeling about tonight’s game. Feels like everyone is riding high on the pats and this just feels like it’s going to be a let down, “back to reality game”. Hope I’m wrong. Will be a tough game.
 

Harry Hooper

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High winds should limit the ability to take shots downfield, which means the Bills can use a lot of DB blitzes which the Pats have struggled with this season. Pats OL has to impose their will blocking vs.a stacked box, and maybe Josh sprinkles in some changeups such as Bourne taking the handoff on end-arounds.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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Just keep Allen in the pocket. Easier said than done, but i don't want to see that dude getting outside the hash marks and finding diggs on extended plays or picking up 15-20 yards with his feet all game long. If they can do that, I'll sleep well regardless of the result.
 

Helmet Head

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Jul 18, 2005
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I am sorry if this has been posted anywhere but is Dugger for sure out tonight? If not, when do you generally hear about players in Covid protocol on game day? Think he is a important piece, specifically for this game.
 

ramfan

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Jul 19, 2005
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I am sorry if this has been posted anywhere but is Dugger for sure out tonight? If not, when do you generally hear about players in Covid protocol on game day? Think he is a important piece, specifically for this game.
98.5 said it's still not official. not sure when they have to announce it for covid protocols
 

cshea

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So that suggests he did make the trip?
I would doubt it. I would assume they are smart enough to not put a positive Covid player on the team plane. If he had cleared before they traveled yesterday, I assume they would've removed him from the Covid list already.

I assume he is out. I suppose it's plausible that he could get clearance via testing today and the team gets him a plane to get him to Buffalo before kickoff, but that feels like a long shot. He also hasn't practiced all week which could mean he wouldn't play anyways.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I'm assuming Dugger is out too. It sucks but at the very least it means that we'll be throwing some different things at them when they come to Gillette in a few weeks.

As a general point, I sort of wonder how game planning is affected by the fact that we're playing each other twice and could see each other a few weeks after that in the playoffs too. To the degree that BB has spent the last year thinking of different different defensive wrinkles to throw at Josh Allen, how many of those cards do you play in the first matchup? Do you just do everything possible to win this game? Or do you hold some stuff back for the return engagement (or even a potential playoff matchup)?
 

Dahabenzapple2

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Need a couple of successful gadget plays.

Need a couple of special teams plays / Pats better than the Bills

Need just enough running success (will be shocked if they can get anything significant established) to open up a few good traditional play action passes/seams.

Buffalo must know NE will try very hard to be successful on screens - Mac has been tremendous on this type of throw and with the wind one thinks a few seams on play pass and screens is the recipe. Will be surprised if Mac succeeds with longish outs or back shoulders.

tough game (obvious) but methinks the Pats defense is a good match for Buffalo. My biggest concern is Allen running.
 

chilidawg

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Pats need to win at the LoS. Got gashed last week in the run game, and didn't run effectively until the 4th. That won't cut it against a team with the skill players the Bills have.

Buffalo the Bills.
 

BaseballJones

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Last four games...

Josh Allen: 96-138 (69.6%), 1,099 yds, 8.0 y/a, 8 td, 7 int, 91.4 rating
Mac Jones: 76-99 (76.8%), 854 yds, 8.6 y/a, 7 td, 2 int, 117.2 rating

Notes:
- Allen has thrown interceptions in each of the last four games: 2, 1, 2, 2
- Allen has a 100+ rating in 7 of 11 games this year
- Jones has a 100+ rating in 6 of 12 games this year
 

Strike4

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Need just enough running success (will be shocked if they can get anything significant established) to open up a few good traditional play action passes/seams.
Wonder if we'll see more of the Jonnu Smith WR type runs - execute a couple of those and you can run play action off of them.

Also, it will be windy (25 mph with gusts to 40 mph) but it will come and go. There will be opportunities for longer throws, just not really bombs where they have air under them.
 

Ale Xander

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With the wind, expect a lot of runs. I am confident in our OL and Rham and Harris and in Bentley, Collins, and High in stopping the run. Not really as anxious about this game as others this season.
 

Dr. Gonzo

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I think he's going to spy Josh Allen. Can't let that SOB scramble for first downs every 3rd and long when the secondary has taken away his pass options.
Just as long as he is not trying cover Knox, fine by me.

F Owen Daniels
 

88 MVP

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I will be at the stadium for this one. The weather has been awful all day, but hopefully the precipitation clears out before game time. The wind seems like it will be a factor.

I married a Bills fan, and tonight will be the 11th Pats-Bills game we have attended in person. The Pats are 10-0 in the games we have attended. (My favorite was probably “the Ben Watson game” / “the Leodis McKelvin game.” She really thought they had that one in the bag).

I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Go Pats — may my wife bitterly reject my advances when we get home.
 

JOBU

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Trying to remember the last time I’ve been this nervous/excited for a pats regular season game. Right now the only one that comes to mind is the 2007 week 17 game against the NYG
 

Pandemonium67

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No doubt, this is the biggest regular season Pats game in quite a while.

Of course, the rematch in a few weeks, as well as the Dolphins game, loom large also.
 

E5 Yaz

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Uniform for tonight? Asking for a wife, who likes to be color-coordinated for game-watching
 

sonofgodcf

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I will be at the stadium for this one. The weather has been awful all day, but hopefully the precipitation clears out before game time. The wind seems like it will be a factor.

I married a Bills fan, and tonight will be the 11th Pats-Bills game we have attended in person. The Pats are 10-0 in the games we have attended. (My favorite was probably “the Ben Watson game” / “the Leodis McKelvin game.” She really thought they had that one in the bag).

I don’t see that streak ending tonight. Go Pats — may my wife bitterly reject my advances when we get home.
Well, since she's the Bills fan, maybe lay naked on a folding table and see if she takes the bait.
 

cshea

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No doubt, this is the biggest regular season Pats game in quite a while.

Of course, the rematch in a few weeks, as well as the Dolphins game, loom large also.
Probably the week 16 2019 Saturday night game against Buffalo. Pats were 11-3 and the Bills 10-4. IIRC the Pats were well positioned with tie breakers so it wasn't a battle for the top of the AFC East, but the Pats had been struggling despite grabbing some wins and the Bills were on the rise. Pats won 24-17 as the offense finally clicked in the second half/4th quarter. At the time, it was thought to be the game that got the Patriots back on track. As fate would have it, it was Brady's last win as a Patriot.