10/18 ALDS Game 5: Civale vs. Cortes

[Wingack]

We have an elimination game on our hands and it is likely going to be a tight battle like every game in the series has been.

Wandy is going to be available. Cabrera is likely going to be at short again. It might be wise to let Carpenter get in there for some at bats off the righty Civale. Could also be time to move Bader up in the lineup, give the hottest guy on the team as many at-bats as he can get. Hopefully Judge shows up.

Cleveland's bullpen is basically going to be at full strength so I think Tito will have a quick hook for Civale. So the Yankees are going to need to score as many runs as they can early.

 

[jon abbey]

NY is 7-3 vs CLE this year. That breaks down to:

0-3 when Bieber or McKenzie is starting
7-0 in other games

This is an ‘other game’.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, start Carpenter or Stanton in LF, whoever’s more mobile currently. Let Bader cheat to left center some to help, really want to see Carpenter get some ABs.

 

[jon abbey]

NY saw Civale in both regular season Guardians series, in April and July. They hit him hard both times and interestingly Rizzo homered off him in both, Stanton also got him in the July one.

Taillon faced CLE once in the regular season, his 3rd start of the year all the way back on April 22, 5 7 1 1 0 5 on 84 pitches, the one run was a HR to the long gone Franmil Reyes. He is a FA with an OK track record, he would probably make himself a lot of money with an impressive effort tomorrow.

I wonder if NY flew back Taillon early like they always used to do for the next night's SP in a different city? They couldn't possibly in case they needed him for this one, right? Curious about that.

 

[jon abbey]

Also if you really can't play either of Stanton or Carpenter in the OF, let Carpenter DH for this one and Stanton come off the bench potentially. Stanton is 1-12 (a HR) with 2 walks in this series, give Carpenter a shot with the short porch. The man had a better OPS than Aaron Judge this year (1.138 to 1.111), he was supposedly hitting rockets off Nestor and Severino on their way back, give him a chance.

And if Stanton doesn't like that, tell him if he thinks he can start in LF and possibly come out for a defensive replacement, that works even better.

Bader CF
Judge RF
Rizzo 1B
Gleyber 2B
Carpenter DH
Cabrera SS
Stanton LF
Donaldson 3B
Trevino C

That lineup accounts for Hicks or Locastro possibly replacing Stanton midway.

 

[jon abbey]

Heh, Cabrera and Peraza were AAA teammates for much of the season, but of course only one could play SS per game. Cabrera started 15 games there (just 47 played, he was hurt midseason for a while) and Peraza started 89 of his 99 games there.

 

[jon abbey]

It makes sense to go offense early on and defense later, NY needs runs off Civale, probably everyone who comes in after him will be tougher.

 

[jon abbey]

NY tied LAD for the best home record in baseball this year at 57-24, both 1-1 in the postseason. I would be very curious to see how NY's home record breaks down in day and night games (@Brand Name ? Do you know how to do this? ) as we have talked so much about their sleepwalking through the first few hours of 1 PM starts.

Anyway, I know that they are 1-0 in home night games and 0-1 in home day games in this series, the crowd should be nuts for this one. Anyone here going?

 

[Brand Name]

I'd go tonight but my show lets me out seven minutes before the first pitch. If they win this, Game 4 of the ALCS looks viable with my schedule.

 

[jon abbey]

Nice, Jess!!

Mike Axisa gives us Bader’s five hardest hit balls of 2022:

109.8 mph (ALDS Game 1 homer)
109.7 mph (ALDS Game 3 homer)
109.6 mph (June 3rd single)
109.1 mph (ALDS Game 4 homer)
108.9 mph (May 13th ground out)

 

[strek1]

NY is 7-3 vs CLE this year. That breaks down to:

0-3 when Bieber or McKenzie is starting
7-0 in other games

This is an ‘other game’.

Wow that's incredible.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

NY tied LAD for the best home record in baseball this year at 57-24, both 1-1 in the postseason. I would be very curious to see how NY's home record breaks down in day and night games (@Brand Name ? Do you know how to do this? ) as we have talked so much about their sleepwalking through the first few hours of 1 PM starts.

Anyway, I know that they are 1-0 in home night games and 0-1 in home day games in this series, the crowd should be nuts for this one. Anyone here going?

Tickets getting very cheap because of the weather. I'm VERY tempted but with work tomorrow, I can't risk a 2am game due to weather delays.

 

[AMS25]

Tickets getting very cheap because of the weather. I'm VERY tempted but with work tomorrow, I can't risk a 2am game due to weather delays.

What would happen if tonight's game is cancelled due to the weather?

 

[Murderer's Crow]

What would happen if tonight's game is cancelled due to the weather?

Yankees would have a less favorable pitching matchup because Cle would throw Bieber tomorrow but the bullpen will be slightly more rested. Both teams would also have to play 3 straight games and 2 right away against Houston unless they pushed that series back 1 day.

My gut tells me both NY and CLE would prefer to play today because Cleveland wouldn't be able throw Bieber until game 4 by starting him tomorrow and they have a bullpen advantage tonight anyway. NY would rather not face Bieber.

 

[jon abbey]

Bieber would still only be on 3 days rest tomorrow, but it’s not getting rained out anyway.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Bieber would still only be on 3 days rest tomorrow, but it’s not getting rained out anyway.

Yea, the amount of rain looks very light. They canceled last Thursday over ~1in of rain over 8 hours. This looks like 12 hour spread from 5pm to 5am and 1/4in of rain. Will be very windy though. 15-20mph gusts.

 

[Wingack]

This is potentially bad

View: https://twitter.com/reflog_18/status/1582028275173367813?s=46&t=J--M8PC5HSh14sXqB7aqJg

 

[jon abbey]

It's already been debunked, the plane with the team landed as scheduled ten hours ago. That is a secondary plane with other team personnel, I guess.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

This is potentially bad

View: https://twitter.com/reflog_18/status/1582028275173367813?s=46&t=J--M8PC5HSh14sXqB7aqJg

It's the friends and family charter, plus some media. Players are in NY. Source: Comments & Meredith

 

[Wingack]

Ok cool thanks.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/sis_baseball/status/1582052663977422852

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I'm with EE. I think Yankees mash tonight. Judge home, night game. Stanton looks like he's just a hair off on timing and temptation. Rizzo and Donaldson are gonna be aiming for the porch. Gametime can't come soon enough.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

It wouldn't be the postseason without talking about markets but man...imagine the disappointment if Cle wins of the networks that were looking at the prospect of Braves or Mets vs LA and NY vs Houston and maybe Hou vs LA rematch or NY vs Atlanta or LA... If Cleveland wins, they'll get maybe the worst combination of ratings possible.

 

[DukeSox]

It wouldn't be the postseason without talking about markets but man...imagine the disappointment if Cle wins of the networks that were looking at the prospect of Braves or Mets vs LA and NY vs Houston and maybe Hou vs LA rematch or NY vs Atlanta or LA... If Cleveland wins, they'll get maybe the worst combination of ratings possible.

Good article on that today in WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/baseball-playoff-upsets-dodgers-braves-phillies-padres-11666010259?mod=mhp

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Do you think Cal Quantrill is sitting around thinking that Wandy better be careful before he gets done like Cal's dad?

 

[Wingack]

Same lineup as last night:

View: https://twitter.com/Yankees/status/1582084057076154370?s=20&t=X4_um-WSpjuvCMi2us9ITA

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Just discovered my boss at my new job is a Guardians fan. I've never met one in real life!

 

[Wingack]

Weather seeming really iffy for tonight. I think they are going to postpone it.

 

[Ale Xander]

I'd go tonight but my show lets me out seven minutes before the first pitch. If they win this, Game 4 of the ALCS looks viable with my schedule.

Elimination games for baseball playoffs are amazing as I’m sure you know. Have you considered just arriving late? 3 hours is a lot of time. (This depends of course on whether you can make tomorrow afternoon if it’s postponed)

 

[Ale Xander]

I’m seeing just 40-50% chance of rain (per hour), I think this gets played.
mom assuming the Yankees have arrived in NY after the mechanical failure.

 

[Wingack]

View: https://twitter.com/JackCurryYES/status/1582113450787889152?s=20&t=sNRUUSSgcHWRuYcp4J_JyQ

 

[jon abbey]

Weather seeming really iffy for tonight. I think they are going to postpone it.

Maybe delayed, no way postponed (IMO obv).

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Maybe delayed, no way postponed (IMO obv).

Just cancel it and play a 3 way series with the 'Stros.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/joelsherman1/status/1582124497913552896?s=46&t=HES0MfZBLS3ywkweEmvt0w

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Delayed

 

[Al Zarilla]

I’m seeing just 40-50% chance of rain (per hour), I think this gets played.
mom assuming the Yankees have arrived in NY after the mechanical failure.

40-50% chance in NY probably means you're gonna get some rain. In California we usually need a bunch of those before we get a drop.

 

[jon abbey]

Tarp is on, looks like maybe a two hour delay. A full rainout and game tomorrow would help NY as their bullpen is way more burnt, but I’m sure they will play tonight.

 

[Ale Xander]

40-50% chance in NY probably means you're gonna get some rain. In California we usually need a bunch of those before we get a drop.

Up to 80% each for 8 and 9 pm now
I’m guessing this will start around 9:40

 

[jon abbey]

Not actually raining there yet, but they understandably don't want to stop and start (this would badly hurt NY as they are hoping for more from Taillon than CLE is from Civale).

View: https://twitter.com/MaxTGoodman/status/1582148032766042113

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/LaurenShehadi/status/1582149803856736256

 

[Brand Name]

Up to 80% each for 8 and 9 pm now
I’m guessing this will start around 9:40

And this is how I can make this game. Man, it's tempting, about 30 minutes away and reason to think the game won't start by then. Super spur of the moment too, live it up? Tough one.

Especially because I see a legends suite single ticket super undervalued. Goddamn. If I find this is starting 9:30 or later with enough time for me to make it officially I'm buying it. Fucking YOLO.

 

[jon abbey]

And this is how I can make this game. Man, it's tempting, about 30 minutes away and reason to think the game won't start by then. Super spur of the moment too, live it up? Tough one.

Especially because I see a legends suite single ticket super undervalued. Goddamn. If I find this is starting 9:30 or later with enough time for me to make it officially I'm buying it. Fucking YOLO.

Yeah it’s going to start at 9:30 or 10, go for it! And be loud if you go!

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/dshulman_espn/status/1582158475018506243?s=46&t=HP-5VR7lplZQlZKWCOk_0Q

 

[Brand Name]

Jesus. I bought it

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Jesus. I bought it

Enjoy!!! Send a pic of that awesome view and scream your damn lungs off pls

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

That's fucking awesome Jess. Have fun!

Have we already had a discussion about playoff games attended? I haven't been to one since 1995.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Never been to one. I blame the Army.

 

[Wingack]

That's fucking awesome Jess. Have fun!

Have we already had a discussion about playoff games attended? I haven't been to one since 1995.

I've only attended playoff games in 2001, the one year we had season tickets out in the bleachers. But that means I was at all the historic World Series games against the DBacks.

Actually, I was also at the Knoblauch game whatever year that happened. A friend's dad brought me.

 

[Wingack]

View: https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/1582170719479209984?s=20&t=c_V4pQNz9MqFdt3nZrFWnw


He must have a tip from Boras.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

I've only attended playoff games in 2001, the one year we had season tickets out in the bleachers. But that means I was at all the historic World Series games against the DBacks.

Actually, I was also at the Knoblauch game whatever year that happened. A friend's dad brought me.

Brutal. I saw the Yankees go 0-3 against Seattle. Maybe it's good we don't go to games!