10/11 - ALDS vs Tampa. Game 4.

jhp64

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Jul 17, 2007
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Lots of teaching moments the last few nights. I discussed all of these with my boys just last night:

Whitlock backing up third saves a run.
Renfroe should have thrown to second to hold Randy at first.
Vaz taking third behind the throw.
Franco should have set his feet before he threw.
Pickoff move on Vaz was to try to see if Arroyo was bunting.
Don't forget Feyereisen backing up the sac fly in the bottom of the 9th.
 

TimScribble

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Jul 16, 2005
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You were younger then. I tuned out after the score went to 3-5, b/c I had a bad feeling about things, just checked the score from time to time, tuned back in to see the ninth. That's the second day in a row my timing had been impeccable. Watched the whole game this a.m. on FS1. Glad I did it "my way." Glad the Sox did it their way.
I feel this post completely. I may have to try it sometime to save the nerves.
 

Pandemonium67

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Apr 17, 2003
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"Vaz taking third behind the throw."

This was an underrated quasi-blunder by the Rays. You want to get an out, sure. But you don't want Vazquez at third with only one out. In hindsight (20/20) maybe you bluff the throw to first and try to get Vaz leaning toward third.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Sep 9, 2008
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"Vaz taking third behind the throw."

This was an underrated quasi-blunder by the Rays. You want to get an out, sure. But you don't want Vazquez at third with only one out. In hindsight (20/20) maybe you bluff the throw to first and try to get Vaz leaning toward third.
I hadn’t thought about any of this. In fact, I hadn’t even really appreciated that Vaz was running behind the throw. If Diaz just eats that ball, the Rays are in better shape.

Still, with a slow runner you have to trade the base for an out there. That was a generous single. An ordinary effort play should have gotten him. I think it was an error even with the bad bounce.

But you know what might work in a situation like that with a fast runner? The same play you sometimes see at home where the catcher catches the ball five feet in front of home plate and then gets the runner trying to stretch the single into a double.

If Choi bluffs and then steps out five feet from first base and Diaz throws him a chest high fastball and throws right back to this they may get him. Or even throw behind Vaz at second if he hesitates.
 

pk1627

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Let’s fucking allez worked the last 3 games but that seems Ray-specific. Would appreciate any ideas for the Team formerly known as the Astros
 

Saints Rest

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"Vaz taking third behind the throw."

This was an underrated quasi-blunder by the Rays. You want to get an out, sure. But you don't want Vazquez at third with only one out. In hindsight (20/20) maybe you bluff the throw to first and try to get Vaz leaning toward third.
Somewhere (I don’t know where because I’m an idiot), I bet there is a site that will tell you win probability of 1st and 2nd, one out, vs man on third, two outs.
Of course the bad throw/catch rendered this moot.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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Somewhere (I don’t know where because I’m an idiot), I bet there is a site that will tell you win probability of 1st and 2nd, one out, vs man on third, two outs.
Of course the bad throw/catch rendered this moot.
Run expectancy with 1st and 2nd, one out is 0.908. Runner on 3rd, two outs is 0.413. In this situation, run expectancy is the same as win probability. Throwing to first was the right choice based on this.

(numbers from run expectancy matrix on fangraphs)
 
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Saints Rest

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Run expectancy with 1st and 2nd, no outs is 0.908. Runner on 3rd, two outs is 0.413. In this situation, run expectancy is the same as win probability. Throwing to first was the right choice based on this.

(numbers from run expectancy matrix on fangraphs)
Thanks
Presumably it is a bit less with 1st and 2nd, one out?
Unless you typed no outs when you meant one.
 

Pandemonium67

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Apr 17, 2003
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Run expectancy with 1st and 2nd, no outs is 0.908. Runner on 3rd, two outs is 0.413. In this situation, run expectancy is the same as win probability. Throwing to first was the right choice based on this.
Yes, though this does not factor in play difficulty. The play in question was a slow roller that required the 3rd baseman to charge and then make an off-balance throw. That would change percentages quite a bit.