1/18 @ Grizzlies

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,405
Home Run Baker's mea culpa on its way??
Can't speak for him but I think the important point is that Stevens continues to adjust his game plans as the season goes along. And they aren't doing this in a vacuum or blindly. They are looking at the data and evolving their line-ups. HRB will remind us that the Grizzlies are free-falling and he is right. But they have talent enough to beat you if aren't ready to play. The C's took care of business tonight. This was a good win.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
30,194
Why? Once again, the average margin of victory in the NBA is four points for the '18-19 season. The C's won by six.
What's the average margin of victory for teams expected to compete for a championship that are playing at home against teams expected to have pretty good odds for a top 5 pick?

I don't know what kind of relevance the margin of victory in the Brooklyn/Orlando game tonight has on the C's/Grizzlies game.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,537
Santa Monica
Can't speak for him but I think the important point is that Stevens continues to adjust his game plans as the season goes along. And they aren't doing this in a vacuum or blindly. They are looking at the data and evolving their line-ups. HRB will remind us that the Grizzlies are free-falling and he is right. But they have talent enough to beat you if aren't ready to play. The C's took care of business tonight. This was a good win.
Agree with all that, and I'm just joking about HRB.

Season-high minutes for AB, they are 4-0 when he plays 20+mpg
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
34,937
Amazing as Kyrie is, it’s still disconcerting he needs to be the one to save our bacon against such a mediocre team.
That’s a feature not a bug. It’s not a weakness when your best player plays like it.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
34,937
What's the average margin of victory for teams expected to compete for a championship that are playing at home against teams expected to have pretty good odds for a top 5 pick?

I don't know what kind of relevance the margin of victory in the Brooklyn/Orlando game tonight has on the C's/Grizzlies game.
I don’t know. Check the Toronto/Phoenix score from last night.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,405
What's the average margin of victory for teams expected to compete for a championship that are playing at home against teams expected to have pretty good odds for a top 5 pick?

I don't know what kind of relevance the margin of victory in the Brooklyn/Orlando game tonight has on the C's/Grizzlies game.
The Brooklyn Orlando game was a two point game. Not sure what it means too. Its just that folks who expect wire-to-wire leads and blowout wins regularly don't appear to be looking at data.

And to sort of answer your question, the Warriors net rating is six points overall and they have played three more games at home than on the road this season.
 

lars10

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
5,270

mikeot

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2006
5,569
The Brooklyn Orlando game was a two point game. Not sure what it means too. Its just that folks who expect wire-to-wire leads and blowout wins regularly don't appear to be looking at data.

And to sort of answer your question, the Warriors net rating is six points overall and they have played three more games at home than on the road this season.
Always enlightening, DeJesus.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,405
Always enlightening, DeJesus.
I don't know that I am at all. And I know I get a lot of well deserved shit for trying to cheerlead this team. However, for me at least, I tend to enjoy sports a lot more when I manage my expectations. If the C's beat a true tanking team after the trade-deadline by one or two points, I would be concerned. But aside from that, a win is a win, regardless of the margin. YRMV.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
30,194
The Brooklyn Orlando game was a two point game. Not sure what it means too. Its just that folks who expect wire-to-wire leads and blowout wins regularly don't appear to be looking at data.

And to sort of answer your question, the Warriors net rating is six points overall and they have played three more games at home than on the road this season.
That doesn't answer my question. You guys know that average scoring margin and average margin of victory are different statistics, right? One only takes into account a team's wins, while the other is the net of all of their wins and losses.

But, if you want to go with scoring margin, the Celtics came into tonight with an average scoring margin of +10.8 at home. So, let's just start from that baseline. Now, if we filter out every team that's better than Memphis, that number goes up significantly. So yeah, a 6 point win at home against a team that's lost 10 of 11 is probably not a great showing for the Celtics.

The fact that an average team on an average night on a neutral site or undisclosed location would normally win by 4 points is, well, completely irrelevant to what the Celtics should win by against the Grizzlies tonight, at home.

Edit: Vegas had the Celtics favored by 10.5 tonight. I guess they should just make every game a 4 point spread, because that's what the average margin of victory is for every game in the NBA tonight? It doesn't make any sense to look at it that way. That's all I'm saying.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
34,937
What are you saying? That because we didn’t cover the spread that....what?
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
30,194
I don't know that I am at all. And I know I get a lot of well deserved shit for trying to cheerlead this team. However, for me at least, I tend to enjoy sports a lot more when I manage my expectations. If the C's beat a true tanking team after the trade-deadline by one or two points, I would be concerned. But aside from that, a win is a win, regardless of the margin. YRMV.
This, I have no problem with. Shit, I've been banging that same drum about the Patriots for 20 years. A win is a win. I agree. I personally would rather have not seen the sloppiness we saw tonight, with 17 turnovers, and I'd rather see Brad try to make more of an effort to put opponents away early, and then rest guys, rather than rest guys and have to bury opponents at the end of games, but all in all, yeah, any win is better than a loss, by a mile.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
30,194
What are you saying? That because we didn’t cover the spread that....what?
I think I've been pretty clear. Dejesus questioned another poster and asked him why he would expect a blowout when the average margin of victory in the NBA is 4 points. What I'm saying is that the average margin of victory for the entire NBA has absolutely no relevance as to whether or not someone should expect to see a blowout between two teams. Vegas clearly expected a blowout. The Celtics own margin of victory at home would have presumed a blowout. All of those things are a whole lot more relevant than whatever happened tonight between two other teams playing somewhere else.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
21,522
Here
More Baynes and Al on the court at the same time going forward per Brad in the post game.
OMFG YES

Al’s negative defense at the 5 is nearly negating his positive offense. He’s going to be a much more valuable player when he isn’t responsible for guarding the paint and fighting bigger and stronger men underneath. Should save him a ton of energy, too.
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,537
Santa Monica
More Baynes and Al on the court at the same time going forward per Brad in the post game.
It's about freaking time, more winning on the way.

Every statistical measure shows the team plays better w/Baynes on the floor. PLUS the complete ineptitude of our small ball lineups from Day 1.

The follow-up question to Brad should have been:

What took so damn long?
 

benhogan

Baynes Hogan (pending trade)
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
6,537
Santa Monica
OMFG YES

Al’s negative defense at the 5 is nearly negating his positive offense. He’s going to be a much more valuable player when he isn’t responsible for guarding the paint and fighting bigger and stronger men underneath. Should save him a ton of energy, too.
+1
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
28,405
That doesn't answer my question. You guys know that average scoring margin and average margin of victory are different statistics, right? One only takes into account a team's wins, while the other is the net of all of their wins and losses.

But, if you want to go with scoring margin, the Celtics came into tonight with an average scoring margin of +10.8 at home. So, let's just start from that baseline. Now, if we filter out every team that's better than Memphis, that number goes up significantly. So yeah, a 6 point win at home against a team that's lost 10 of 11 is probably not a great showing for the Celtics.

The fact that an average team on an average night on a neutral site or undisclosed location would normally win by 4 points is, well, completely irrelevant to what the Celtics should win by against the Grizzlies tonight, at home.

Edit: Vegas had the Celtics favored by 10.5 tonight. I guess they should just make every game a 4 point spread, because that's what the average margin of victory is for every game in the NBA tonight? It doesn't make any sense to look at it that way. That's all I'm saying.
To be clear, I am only citing the average margin of victory for the entire NBA. So that takes into account every game played.

As for the average scoring margin, yes that is something different. The thing is, the sample is much smaller as the Celtics have played 22 games at home while the NBA season to date has featured far more games than that - so the 22 games weigh blowouts far more than the entire season of games played. Furthermore, we can all agree that Boston has struggled in stretches so their scoring margin may not really be representative of who they are, especially as they play another half a season.

Finally, I am loathe to question Vegas but if you told me the bookies had the Cs favored by 10.5 tonight, I would have taken the Grizzlies before the game just given how the Celtics have played this past stretch. On the other hand, they have beaten some ok teams by big margins at home so that is probably why they were favored by so much.

In the end, as you know, the NBA doesn't use scoring for any sort of seeding purposes. While I enjoy sound beat-downs as much if not more than anyone, I would take the C's winning a healthy clip of their games by one point each. As you noted upthread, a win is a win.
 

GoDa

lurker
Sep 25, 2017
573
Last time I went to C's game McHale dropped 56. Kyrie made my return a good one.