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  1. williams_482

    Openers?

    I seriously doubt the reduced attendance has much to do with the proliferation of lesser known middle relievers and an increase in pitching changes. There are a bevy of other reasons one could offer up to explain that, none of which are really on topic here. That said, I'm sympathetic to your...
  2. williams_482

    Our ownership group

    Current Red Sox ownership has generally made smart choices, spend money, and gotten lucky on personnel and game results about as much as we could have possibly hoped for 20 years ago. That said, there's a very wide line between "this is a bad decision sprung from questionable motivations" and...
  3. williams_482

    Tickets go on sale Friday: How excited are you about the 2020 Red Sox?

    Because of the weird economic structure of baseball and the fact that younger players make up an increasing proportion of the best players in the game, yes, most of the elite talents in baseball are underpaid. This fact does not make any of them any less valuable. If you want to get better by...
  4. williams_482

    Tickets go on sale Friday: How excited are you about the 2020 Red Sox?

    That's $4.5M per win at the most conservative estimate, which would have been market value in 2008. In a word, yes. Not even close.
  5. williams_482

    Tickets go on sale Friday: How excited are you about the 2020 Red Sox?

    If you think the Red Sox were non-contenders prior to trading Betts, the deal makes sense. ZiPS and Steamer certainly didn't, and they still think Boston is a contender now, only a fringy one instead of a strong WC1 favorite with real if sub-50% shot at the division. The argument that they...
  6. williams_482

    Tickets go on sale Friday: How excited are you about the 2020 Red Sox?

    Frankly, they didn't need to get under this year. They will have to eventually, but paying a large percentage tax on a rather small overage this year is not going to hurt them very much. Even the maxed out 95% overage tax amounts to very little if the overages are small, so it's not like being...
  7. williams_482

    Tickets go on sale Friday: How excited are you about the 2020 Red Sox?

    I'm excited about baseball. How to get excited about the local team, who were sitting in the fattest part of the win curve and deliberately got worse in order to save money, I really don't know.
  8. williams_482

    Lou Merloni: Mookie asking price is 12 years, $420 million.

    I should note that I dropped Bonds from the sample for obvious reasons, but he's both one of the better comps (same position, same incredibly diverse skillset, better by only 1.7 WAR 21-26) and one of the slam dunk wins in the sample even completely ignoring the Roid Rage years. Bonds had blown...
  9. williams_482

    Lou Merloni: Mookie asking price is 12 years, $420 million.

    One other note about trading Mookie: Other teams are not stupid. They know how much Mookie is worth, and they know how much to weigh his present value against the future value they would give up for him. The teams most willing to give up value for Mookie are going to be teams in the fat part of...
  10. williams_482

    Lou Merloni: Mookie asking price is 12 years, $420 million.

    We can play the "pick one or two comps of varying degrees of relevance and point to how they did" game all day. If you signed 27 year old Adrian Beltre to the 2006 equivalent of 12/$240M, you'd have gotten your investment back plus a ~$75M profit by the time he retired. Betts needs to put up...
  11. williams_482

    Lou Merloni: Mookie asking price is 12 years, $420 million.

    I am padding for injury at least a touch, as Mookie has been reliably over 700 when healthy. That crude 0.5 win per-season drop also stems from a mix of both lost playing time and lost effectiveness from historical players. I also have serious doubts that the cost per win is going to do...
  12. williams_482

    Lou Merloni: Mookie asking price is 12 years, $420 million.

    Mookie for his career has been worth 6.7 WAR per 650 PAs. His current Steamer projection is basically that. Let's assume he maintains that level until he turns 29 and loses 0.5 WAR per season from there on. Over the next 12 years, that would give us 52.9 WAR. At $9M per win, an extremely...
  13. williams_482

    MLB/Atlantic league to experiment with the idea of stealing first base

    First blush, I like this rule, for two reasons. First, as mentioned above, it gives teams a reason to give a damn about catcher defense once robot strike zones make pitch framing irrelevant. Preventing normal steals and passed balls are nowhere near as important as framing is, and once the...
  14. williams_482

    Red Sox Defensive Gifs

    Looking at JBJ's Statcast fielding page, the dot most likely to be this catch is given a 40% catch rate, requiring that Bradley cover 98 feet in 5.5 seconds. I think it's pretty clear that this is an amazing play because there was a wall in the way, not because of the distance Bradley had to...
  15. williams_482

    Greatest play in Patriots History?

    The Roberts steal is likely the most impactful stolen base of all time, at basically the upper limit of how important a steal can possibly be within the context of a game. It's also pretty much indisputable that it was both more likely and less impactful than the events that put him on or that...
  16. williams_482

    Sony Michel R1 #31 RB Georgia

    Worth noting that rookie RBs are usually zeros in the passing game under BB. Vereen was a redshirt his first year, and White caught all of five passes as a rookie. Michel was a good receiver in college, and he showed serious skill in the areas that really matter for a running back (summarized...
  17. williams_482

    The Game Ball Thread: AFCCG at the Chiefs

    Unlike the now defunct Advanced NFL Stats WP calculator, which used the results from past games, the WP numbers PFR uses are generated formulaically from Expected Points numbers. This works pretty well for most situations, but it completely breaks down for end of half situations and others where...
  18. williams_482

    ALCS 2018 - Houston Astros

    There's zero chance Cora decides to finally bust this one out in the ALCS, but the long string of elite RHH at the top of Houston's lineup is a textbook spot to put a right handed opener before Price. You get a better matchup against their best hitters out of the gate, and Price can stick in the...
  19. williams_482

    ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up

    Kinsler is a superb defensive second baseman with a solid offensive track record. He was an above average player this year despite missing time to injury and a .250 BABiP. He had the platoon advantage in this matchup, which, small-sample weirdness notwithstanding, is a significant factor. Now...
  20. williams_482

    ALDS vs. MFY—Buckle Up

    I don't know, they are probably close to equivalent players. Leon's framing stats are better and the pitchers clearly like him more, but Vazquez's statcast batting stats (although terrible) are significantly better than Leon's. Cora may also prefer Vazquez's contact-heavy approach given the...
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