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  1. nvalvo

    The 2023 Trade Deadline: Scenarios

    A Realistic but Optimistic Scenario It's July 19. They've had a scorching hot month since mid-June, but it came against week opposition: they swept the Yankees, who were in free fall, and then took three of four on the road against the Twins, who were also in free fall, before sweeping a...
  2. nvalvo

    Whither Kiké?

    We should probably start a thread about what happens with Hernández going forward. Does he finish the year in Boston?
  3. nvalvo

    Is Connor Wong a starting catcher?

    Connor Wong is playing pretty well. Is he a starting catcher? I'm less interested in divvying up his playing time with respect to Reese McGuire than I am in assessing whether he clears the bar to be a starting-type catcher. This question has a number of ramifications, both forward-looking, in...
  4. nvalvo

    40-man Turnover Prediction Thread

    I started writing this in the "What does 2023 look like?" thread, but remembered that more threads are often better. So consider this a spinoff from that thread. Some of the predictions that people are making in that thread suggest a vision of a 2023 Red Sox roster that is pretty similar to the...
  5. nvalvo

    La belleza de Brayan Bello

    On his baseball card, Brayan Bello has a pedestrian line: 0-3, an ERA that starts with a 7, a .955 OPS allowed, too many walks, waaaaay too many hits. But if you look even a touch below the surface, you start to see some things that point in another direction. For one thing, those numbers come...
  6. nvalvo

    2022 IFA class

    Looks like Boston just inked some teenagers, including some pretty interesting names. This is likely just the first batch, given that the players whose bonuses were announced only amounted to about 2/3 of the Sox' ~$5m pool. The headliners are a pair of Dominican shortstops, but there are more...
  7. nvalvo

    The 2022 Rotation

    Eduardo Rodriguez' departure to greener pastures in the Midwest — I, for one, will miss him — seems like an opportune moment to start a thread on future of the starting rotation, with more focus than the general off-season thread. I thought I'd get us started with a look at the recent...
  8. nvalvo

    What's going on with Rodriguez?

    Over in one of our megathreads, Sean1562 made the following, quite justifiable remark. After all, Rodriguez is 9-7 with an ugly 5.19 ERA in 119 IP. Yuck. But it's more complicated than that, as evidenced by his 3.31 FIP and 3.41 xFIP. Those are great numbers. By FIP, he's been better than...
  9. nvalvo

    Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

    On this point: Dalbec had a rough first series against the O's, going 0/10 with a BB and 5 Ks (50% K rate), but since then: .314/.368/.486, with three BB and 12 Ks in 38 PAs (32% K rate). Crucially, that fast stabilizing K rate has fallen to 35 percent overall, which is probably playable.
  10. nvalvo

    2021 International Signings

    Looks like the Sox just signed a haul of Latin American teenagers. Miguel Bleis, OF from DR, for $1.5m. Toolsy outfielder with a projectable frame expected to add plus power as he grows into his body. Luis Ravelo, SS from DR, $525,000. Listed as a RHH, but his Perfect Game writeup (since when...
  11. nvalvo

    The 2021 Infield

    The infield heading into 2021 has some worthwhile questions. On the left side of the infield, we have some well established incumbents. Xander Bogaerts is one of the best players in baseball. He has received MVP votes each of the last three years, a span during which he has hit .300/.372/.535...
  12. nvalvo

    Who should start for this team in 2021?

    The 2020 Red Sox had a horrible starting rotation. In 60 starts, they averaged 4.1 IP* and a 5.34 ERA. They conceded 49 HR, and had a K/BB ratio around 2. The team as a whole had an 85 ERA+. None of that is good. There were some bright spots, however. The last few weeks of the season saw...
  13. nvalvo

    JBJ in 2021

    Jackie Bradley, Jr. is a free agent. The 30 year-old has a career 92 OPS+, a sterling defensive reputation that is backed up by only some of the statistics. But as we all fondly remember, he had two All Star caliber seasons in 2015 and 2016, a two-year span in which he posted a line of...
  14. nvalvo

    Let's talk about this ballclub.

    Camp is starting, and there are a ton of actual baseball topics for us to sink our teeth into. While many of us are not sure how likely this season is to actually happen (I'm a skeptic), what with the sunbelt spiraling into COVID madness, for the purposes of this thread let's assume that a...
  15. nvalvo

    What about Brusdar?

    It's not every day that you trade away a "Mookie Betts" and end up with a player who might have an even better name. Like many here, I am not happy about the decision to trade Mookie, but unlike some of you, it seems to me that this was a very solid return under the circumstances. In...
  16. nvalvo

    The Shed: potential trade destinations for high-priced Sox players.

    John Henry, Sam Kennedy and other Red Sox brass have equivocated somewhat as to the budget new Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom will have to assemble a 2020 roster. After initially suggesting they wanted to see payroll down below the $208m CBT threshold — some $30m below the 2019 figure — they...
  17. nvalvo

    Eduardo Rodriguez: What do we have here?

    Perhaps slightly premature, but here goes: Eduardo Rodriguez has finally (*knocks wood*) thrown a healthy season. With three starts remaining, he has thrown 185.3 IP of 3.64 ERA baseball, going 17-6. He struck out 9.2/9, walked 3.3/9, and allowed 1.1 HR/9. He's averaging just a fraction shy of...
  18. nvalvo

    Jorge Rodriguez

    In the spirit of ChrisFont9's Yusniel Padrón-Artiles thread, crawling through Baseball-Reference I have just become aware of a Mexican pitcher named Jorge Rodriguez. Sox Prospects has him as our 37th best prospect. I had never heard of him. Apparently we acquired him as an IFA out of Ciudad...
  19. nvalvo

    The Blue Jays are raising minor league pay.

    Link to the Athletic story. Good to see Red Sox alumnus Ben Cherington doing good work for the game. I had long assumed that this wasn't something a team could do unilaterally, because being a first mover seems like such an obvious advantage. The June draft slotting and International draft...
  20. nvalvo

    Fangraphs System Profile (Jan 2019); or, The State of the System

    I found this Fangraphs writeup of the Sox farm system by Longenhangen and McDaniel very interesting, and wanted to solicit people's thoughts here. As in many bad farm systems, the best players are years away. Near-term impact looks like Chavis (likely in trade), Lakins, Feltman, Poyner, and...
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