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    The New Math (I’ll gladly pay Justin Turner today not Bogaerts in 9 years)

    There wasn't a luxury tax when the Mets signed Bobby Bonilla, and he didn't get extra years/deferral for that reason. The big deferral came from the Mets having money invested with Bernie Madoff that they thought would make 10%+ annually, so they deferred Bonilla's $6M in salary at 8% interest...
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    Yes. A better way to look at it is that they are paying $27M for $35-40M of production in the first 6 years of the contract. So when they are paying $25M for little/no production at the end of the contract, they've already received fair value for it.
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    I posted as soon as Turner got 11/$300 that Xander would get a similar amount of money with a seemingly too-long contract. The trend has been building for these contracts for some time (see the good contract thread that just got started for discussion of this). It didn't happen overnight. If...
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    The New Math (I’ll gladly pay Justin Turner today not Bogaerts in 9 years)

    Plus, the luxury tax system could be totally different 10 years from now, or there could be loopholes or other ways to work around it by then. It is much more certain that these super long "last contract of the player's career" will allow you to add additional players during the time that the...
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    Creative, and this is kind of what the recent contracts are doing, just without the performance incentives. You are just using too low of a salary for the expected productive years. So your contract value is way below market. Market rate for a top SS at ages 28-36 averages approximately...
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    Yes, that kind of financial outlay is appropriate for a player of Xander's caliber, as judged by what other major teams are paying for top-tier talent at the SS position. Plenty of precedent for that now: Lindor, Tatis, Seager, Turner, and Franco (depressed AAV because the contract covers arb...
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    Poll: Grade the Xander to San Diego Contract

    The Bogaerts contract is not an outlier; it is a reflection that the market for free agent talent has changed.
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    The 11 years is a concession to the team. If the player were willing to sign for $280M/15 years, the team would jump at that in a heartbeat, because it lowers the AAV for the luxury tax (and naturally defers payment unless the deal is front loaded, which is also rare). At some point, I wonder...
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    The players aren't retiring and will collect every dollar. But the clubs know that $280/8 years = $35M AAV. Better to make it 11 years at $25.5M AAV for the luxury tax, knowing that there is a good chance that the players will be cooked for the last couple years and could be released if need be.
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    X Leaves the Spot for San Diego: 11 years, $280M

    As I said in the Trea Turner thread, neither player is going to play 11 years. This is a lifetime contract with the years serving to depress the real AAV. It's the total dollars (and NPV) that are most relevant, not years.
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    Red Sox Rumors - Just Kidding

    Turner gets $300M for the remainder of his career. The Phils get to call that 11 years to keep the AAV down. Either way, Xander is going to get $300M or very close.
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    2022 HOF Candidates: Ortiz and Papelbon First Time on Ballot

    Mookie Betts... but probably not with a Red Sox cap.
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    Time-killing Challenge: HOF Peak Team v. the Bright Shiners Peak-ish Team

    Bright shiner: 1B Mark McGwire 2nd best season was 1992: 6.4 WAR, Lead league in OPS+. Edit: deleted table, but looks like Giambi's 2nd best season is better. 2010 Robinson Cano is unfortunately better (8.1 WAR) than any of the 2nd best 2B seasons suggested. 2008 and 2010 Joe Mauer are both...
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    Sleuth out who Bill James is talking about - 2011 Sox

    I've lived in every part of the country and known a lot of successful, charismatic, talented, and rich white dudes who are also entitled, self-centered, and downright racist. Perhaps even more common among individuals who are uniquely successful in a particular endeavor, like pro athletes (I've...
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    ARod’s Shattered Dreams of Joining Boston

    Sosh had a 200 page thread about pulling Kevin Millar back from going to Chunichi in 2003. Theo Epstein did at least one Q&A. G38 was in the chat room while negotiating his extension/no trade clause. John Henry called P&G profane. Heady times.
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    Cora in line for major suspension?

    Wow. Just wow.
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    Cora in line for major suspension?

    Nope. Investigating the cases where one has significant information and then assessing harsh penalties to the offenders is exactly how to deal with this, particularly in holding the GM and field manager accountable no matter what level of direct knowledge that they have (Hinch's denials are...
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    15 Years

    Hey DeJesus - we watched all of game 5 together at the Connecticut Yankee. Will never forget it. Didn't lose faith except when I resigned myself to Wakefield losing the game on a passed ball. The next season, OFT and I went to a Giants-Padres game specifically to cheer for Dave Roberts with...
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    Mookie BBetts - 2019 Campaign

    That would be malpractice on the agent's part. Of course there is a price at which Mookie would forego free agency immediately. But Mookie is sending a clear message that he's not willing to sign for less than he believes he will command in free agency. Both parties were very aware that the...
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    2018-19 Offseason Thread

    Similar win pace as last year? Crazy. They were an outstanding team whose pythagorean record was 103 wins. And they go into the seasons with serious questions about the bullpen, making it even less likely they will again outperform their expected W-L record. I think this is still basically a...
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