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  1. Bellhorn

    Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

    You're right, that was a lapse on my part, and I removed the post. FTR, I was not referring to anything on SoSH, merely to the general tendency these days to turn anything/everything into an opportunity to share one's preferred takes on political/cultural matters.
  2. Bellhorn

    Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

    Edit: removed.
  3. Bellhorn

    Betts/Price to LA for Verdugo/Jeter Downs/TBA

    Why is the second one not good, assuming they don't hide/falsify any information in the process of passing him off?
  4. Bellhorn

    Kansas City vs San Francisco -- Who Wins?

    That is the exact score that I had in my head as well.
  5. Bellhorn

    2020 Divisional Weekend Game Thread: Nevermore

    That is what Matt Ryan should have done on the analogous 3rd and 1
  6. Bellhorn

    2020 Playoffs: SoSH Predictions

    HOU over BUF TEN over NE SEA over PHI NO over MIN BAL over TEN KC over HOU SF over SEA NO over GB BAL over KC NO over SF BAL over NO 37-24 MVP Jackson
  7. Bellhorn

    2019 NFL Week 13 Game Thread

    Except for their opponent in the WC round
  8. Bellhorn

    AB Watch II: Quarantonio Brown

    This is SoSH. I think it goes without saying that everyone is a dick to everyone else.
  9. Bellhorn

    2019 NFL Week 11 Game Thread

    This game really is going to end 10-7, isn't it
  10. Bellhorn

    2019 NFL Week 11 Game Thread

    Bill Simmons, is that you?
  11. Bellhorn

    2019 NFL Week 11 Game Thread

    Correct. I laid out the math for this situation at the end of the Week 10 thread. It's really quite obvious once you attach some actual probability estimates to it.
  12. Bellhorn

    2019 NFL Week 10 Game Thread

    You're absolutely right - "ignoring second-order factors" is a caveat that should be added, strictly speaking. But keep in mind that the numbers in the OP were designed to show that the (first-order) conclusion holds even under ridiculously conservative assumptions. If we use more realistic...
  13. Bellhorn

    2019 NFL Week 10 Game Thread

    (NB: This refers to Carolina's two-point try after scoring a TD that brought them within eight points of GB in the 4th quarter). This one is actually easy to see once you slap some concrete numbers onto it. If you assume that any given two-point try has a 40% success rate, that all extra...
  14. Bellhorn

    2019 Game Goat Thread: Wk. 9 at Ravens

    How is that relevant? (2) is still predicated on the defender actually entering the neutral zone, which is what BaseballJones is taking issue with in the first place.
  15. Bellhorn

    2019 Game Goat Thread: Wk. 9 at Ravens

    It was a similarly bogus neutral zone infraction that gave the Chiefs an extra clock stoppage at the end of regulation in the AFCCG, leading to the Mahomes shot at the end zone that probably took a few years off my life.
  16. Bellhorn

    2019 WS - Nationals vs. Astros - Gamethread

    Not the Cubs?
  17. Bellhorn

    2019 WS - Nationals vs. Astros - Gamethread

    Hal Smith, 1960.