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  1. diehard24

    Red Sox signed Porcello to four year deal. 4/82.5M

      Fair enough, though he certainly more highly regarded for his potential at that age. To some degree, that is my point. They have to be betting on improvement, however slight, if they are paying an AAV of $20M+.
  2. diehard24

    Red Sox signed Porcello to four year deal. 4/82.5M

      Yes, but with an obscenely low BB rate and lower H/9. And a rare case, no?
  3. diehard24

    Red Sox signed Porcello to four year deal. 4/82.5M

      Fair enough. Admittedly, I have a bias against sinkerballers with low K rates. Including Derek Lowe.
  4. diehard24

    Red Sox signed Porcello to four year deal. 4/82.5M

    Maybe I'm just stuck on the wrong numbers, but if he continues to give up more than a hit an inning and strike out less than six, I don't see him as a #3, and would consider him to be overpaid.   He is legitimately young enough to improve, and certainly has the stuff, but it's hard for me to...
  5. diehard24

    Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

      So does the Miley trade represent a bold new direction where the Sox will hang their hats on SIERA, FIP, and XFIP? If this data supports Miley as a clear #3 or even a #2, why didn't the Dbacks get more? With three years of control, why wasn't he more coveted?   I know this data has been...
  6. diehard24

    Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

      Perhaps I should have simply stopped at American League. But yes, seriously. He gets hit a lot, doesn't appear to have particularly fine control, and his stuff is pedestrian. Have to give the benefit of the doubt to the front office, but based on Miley's stuff and numbers, I just don't see how...
  7. diehard24

    Sox acquire Wade Miley for De La Rosa, Webster, and minor leaguer

    I think there's a solid chance Miley turns into a middle reliever in the AL East.
  8. diehard24

    Return of the Jedi?

      Exactly my concern. He seemed to have figured out LHH in 2013, but regressed last year. 2014: RHH .239, LHH, .320 2013: RHH .182, LHH, .248 2012: RHH .232, LHH, .296 2011: RHH .210, LHH, .291   Hard to believe they can fix this, but they obviously think they can if they view him as a starter.
  9. diehard24

    Trading for Starting Pitching

      To clarify, I've not known Edes to wishcast, which is what makes me think there could have been something there.
  10. diehard24

    Trading for Starting Pitching

      Jared Carrabis is claiming there is dialogue (above), and I've seen speculation from both Cafardo and Edes a while back, though it was not directly tied to any sources. It doesn't make any sense to me, clearly Chicago is looking to contend. But an Edes mention and new rumors makes me think...
  11. diehard24

    Your 2015 Boston Red Sox

      Still hasn't figured out left-handed hitters. Started looking good in 2013, but was terrible last year. He'll likely be too expensive for relief or a flyer at this point in his career.   BAA vs. LHB 2014: .320 2013: .248 2012: .296 2011: .291
  12. diehard24

    Red Sox Hot Stove Rumors

      Lawrie is both younger and cheaper than I realized, so I now do not think it's quite the disaster I thought it was at first blush. I'd like this a lot better for the A's if they got a better pitching prospect in return.   If rumors are true that 1) A's are looking for bats 2) they like WMB and...
  13. diehard24

    Sox depth - what is next?

      Interesting piece by Drew Fairservice. He doesn't spell out specific ideas here, but lots of allusion to a three-way deal given the lack of obvious trade partners. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-find-a-new-team-for-yoenis-cespedes/
  14. diehard24

    Sox depth - what is next?

      I feel the same about the Reds. Trading, say, Latos creates a big hole in the rotation, enough so to take them out of contention. To me, any trade with the Reds would either hurt them too much or not help the Sox enough, robbing Peter to pay Paul.
  15. diehard24

    Sox depth - what is next?

    Not necessarily a proposal, but I think what's shaping up is an opportunity to acquire appropriate hedges on young talent for this season (Hanely and Panda) that can be used for the same or other positions next year when contracts expire. So, yes, Cespedes, Napoli, Victorino, and Mujica are gone...
  16. diehard24

    The premature re-signing Lester thread

      +1. We know by now he's not making shit up.
  17. diehard24

    The premature re-signing Lester thread

      Saw this, but wasn't sure how to interpret it. Two NL GMs said Lester was close to a) coming back to the Sox, or b) hearing from the Yankees? I think he means the latter.
  18. diehard24

    The future at 3rd

      Very well said. I do think the hedge on younger players is key, a necessary risk. If they can't get useful contributors out of the current system, if not a couple all-stars, then they've failed with a more costly investment of a different kind.
  19. diehard24

    The future at 3rd

      O'Donnell broke the Pence/Phillies trade a couple years ago and was similiarly ridiculed. http://www.bayareasportsguy.com/dennis-odonnell-was-right-giants-trade-for-hunter-pence/   https://twitter.com/KPIXSPORTS/status/229804533486854144