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  1. RHS

    Offseason rumors

    That’s a good question. Montgomery has outperformed his underlying metrics by a bit over the past few years but I’m skeptical it would continue with Fenway as a home park and the Red Sox defense behind him. I feel like Sox have offer out to him for something like 4-years and $90m million but...
  2. RHS

    Offseason rumors

    But nothing in his underlying metrics suggests he's reliable for a 3.40 era. Looking at his metrics (xFIP, SIERA, swstr%, CSW%), they all suggest a reasonable expectation is a 4.00-ish ERA in year 1 of the contract. Given where he is on the aging curve, it only deteriorates from there. That's...
  3. RHS

    Offseason rumors

    This is 100% how I see it. Looking at Montgomery's xFIP and SIERA, k-rate, swinging strike %, and raw stuff, I think the Sox likely view him as a low end #2, ideally a #3 pitcher, who is just entering the bad part of the pitcher aging curve. They're not going to pay him like an elite starter for...
  4. RHS

    Offseason rumors

    For what it’s worth, when I say probably, a lot of times I mean “that’s how it looks right now.” Seems to me Kennedy was saying salary will probably be lower because, the way it looked at the time, there were no deals available (trades or free agents) that Breslow thought were worth doing at the...
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