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  1. bowiac

    2021-22 76ers thread: Going for it all

    Yeah - there was already agita between Morey and Fertitta over internal FO/coaching staff budgetary issues. Most of the discussion around the trade I saw then presumed that Morey would not be around in the "out" years to feel the consequences of trading the picks if things went south. And yeah...
  2. bowiac

    2021-22 76ers thread: Going for it all

    It was widely understood that Morey was not going to be around in Houston for the consequences of that trade. There was a major ownership/management clash happening at the time.
  3. bowiac

    NFL considers creating a streaming service of its own (NFL+)

    I don't know if it's inevitable, but there's certainly a lot of appeal to it. I'm not totally up to speed with where ad tech is these days, but the case for this is that a streaming platform is going to have (much) more granular information about who their viewers are, so would be able to serve...
  4. bowiac

    Timelord Injury Watch

    Probably a slightly lesser tension around this issue than normal here, given he's under contract for 4 years already. He still wants to get some sort of $200M megadeal obviously in 4 years, but the Celtics' interests are fairly aligned in keeping him healthy for at least the next 4 years (fairly...
  5. bowiac

    DARKO and LEBRON's Bogus Journey : NBA Statistics

    I agree with the above. The other part of this is just that as the AIO metrics have become more and more similar, there's less value to front offices from them, since there's just less competitive advantage associated with using them. It's like moving from ERA to pitch-grading information. It's...
  6. bowiac

    DARKO and LEBRON's Bogus Journey : NBA Statistics

    Cause you can bat signal me here I'll answer any questions you have! The quick summary is that DARKO/DPM is the only one of the major public metrics mentioned in that Hoops Hype which is designed to be purely predictive in nature. So to give an example, at the start of last year, EPM had Mike...
  7. bowiac

    DARKO and LEBRON's Bogus Journey : NBA Statistics

    Teams absolutely use all-in-one metrics. They're not the end of the story or anything, but I'd be surprised if there's any analytics friendly org that doesn't maintain their own version of RAPM. I was just at Sloan last week, and had conversations with a half dozen teams about how DPM works...
  8. bowiac

    2021-22 NBA In-Season News/Transactions

    Their FO clearly valued him - their analytics department did not. Not every FO works hand in hand with their analytics group.
  9. bowiac

    2021-22 NBA In-Season News/Transactions

    As far as I'm aware, most team proprietary "all in one" metrics are substantively similar to the public metrics - there's not that much action happening on that end. A few teams have reached out to me asking for help building their own DARKO-like model, which likewise suggests to me the public...
  10. bowiac

    2021-22 NBA In-Season News/Transactions

    DeRozan's sample was roughly 30,000 minutes of mediocre to bad +/- data before this year, across a variety of teams, roles and contexts. I don't really know what the "answer" to the DeRozan issue is, but it's more complicated than shot creation stuff. Essentially every "advanced" metric values...
  11. bowiac

    What do we have here? Are the C's for real?

    Or you know, losing a play-in game to Toronto cause Kyrie is ineligible to play in either Brooklyn or Toronto. The 538 ratings are somewhat outliers in that they grade the Celtics as materially stronger than any other team in the NBA. My numbers have the Celtics 3rd in the NBA after the White...
  12. bowiac

    What do we have here? Are the C's for real?

    Celtics are the runaway title favorites per 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/ My numbers are uh, somewhat less optimistic, but I think there's something here. If they have a deep run, it won't be a "nobody saw that coming" situation at the very least.
  13. bowiac

    Introducing...[Name TBD] - NBA Box Score Projection Project

    Yeah - I'd love to add this sort of stuff, but this data is tough to get reliably/cleanly.
  14. bowiac

    Introducing...[Name TBD] - NBA Box Score Projection Project

    Thanks both. Always nice to to see some adoption/acknowledgement. I missed the question earlier, but I don't anticipate ever moving the core DARKO content behind a paywall. It is more of labor-of-love for me, and a resume item. I am continuing to build out additional functionality for it...
  15. bowiac

    Ben Simmons wants out of Philadelphia

    This is roughly my view. I do think it's a skillset issue with SImmons (rather than lack of 'aggression' or whatever), but he remains a good player for a team without championship aspirations. The Sixers are about the best case scenario for him as a key piece on a contender, but there are a lot...
  16. bowiac

    Ben Simmons wants out of Philadelphia

    They surrounded Simmons with 45%, 41%, 39%, and 38% three point shooters this year. I am skeptical of the "bad fit" explanation with him. Short of like, the Nets, I can't think of a better fit for him. The situation isn't the problem. His skillset is.
  17. bowiac

    Timelord Injury Watch

    This may not belong in the Williams thread, but I'm not sure where this 'the advanced metrics like [Allen's] D' stuff is coming from. He grades +0.9 defensively on DARKO, which is fine, but sort of meh for a big (not in the top 25 for a big). That's my own stat, but the two best public metrics...
  18. bowiac

    Schroder to Celtics

    This is a roughly fair value, for a low end rotation level level guy. /ducks.
  19. bowiac

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    Lonzo is probably the best FA comp for Smart, and he just signed for 4/85 (plus he was restricted). They're both gifted defensive point guards who are somewhat limited on the offensive side. Smart is materially better right now imo, but Lonzo is obviously younger. So there's probably some value...