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  1. chawson

    There are 2 more weeks until the trade deadline

    The right-handed bat is the biggest issue, to me. Since May 1st Boston RHBs have a 87 wRC+. O'Neill's first two weeks have propped his numbers, but he's at .238/.317/.431 since (102 wRC+). Rooker has played like a similar bat to O'Neill (though with much less fielding value). He'd be expensive...
  2. chawson

    There are 2 more weeks until the trade deadline

    I voted to add a starter and to juggle the OF/DH to add a RHB. I love the idea of reuniting with Nathan Eovaldi, and I'm sure there'd be no problem with letting his 2025 option vest. Kikuchi would be good. Taillon makes sense too and would likely cost less in prospects. J.P. Sears would be...
  3. chawson

    Duran wins ASG MVP

    I was also wrong! Really thought Bloom should’ve cashed in on the prospect hype at the 2021 deadline. Also didn’t expect this kind of public persona. Probably a ton of media training involved, but he comes across in these interviews like a real sweetheart, very genuine.
  4. chawson

    We're at the ASB, where are you with the 2024 Boston Red Sox?

    I voted "been with the Sox since day one," and have still been pleasantly surprised by how things have gone. Didn't think Hamilton would play this well, didn't think Duran's defense in CF would improve, and while I spent a lot of the offseason arguing that Houck was a potentially solid starter...
  5. chawson

    Who to buy at the trade deadline?

    The thing about Turner is he’s got incredibly slow bat speed (210th of 212 qualified hitters, ahead of Nicky Lopez and Luis Arraez). Not sure when that started, they’ve only begun tracking it this year. But paired with his lower EVs it seems likelier do with age than his overall approach. I...
  6. chawson

    The Newest Vaughn

    Mayer seems like a late '25 September call-up with an eye toward a starting job in 2026. I've read in a few places that they are decidedly not rushing him and I suspect they'd be incentivized to let him contend for a ROY in 2026. Giving Story another shot at rebuilding value in '25 isn't a bad...
  7. chawson

    The Newest Vaughn

    The whole situation looks further complicated with Yorke playing very well in Worcester, which is a really nice development. The 2026 depth chart at 2B currently looks something like Story, Grissom, Yorke, Hamilton, Valdez, Meidroth, and Campbell, with Romy potentially in the mix as a capable...
  8. chawson

    Who's Next if Cora Leaves?

    I am not convinced that Cora wants out of Boston based on the evidence that he declined to tell reporters explicitly that he wanted to come back. Makes sense for both Cora and Breslow to play out the relationship, at least for a few months, and see how it goes. I think he'll be back. I think...
  9. chawson

    Red Sox trade deadline rumors

    This is interesting. I think it could hurt. I see Yoelin Cespedes (or Bleis or Zanetello) as having the highest upside of that group. Taillon is useful and we know Breslow must like him pretty well, but I'd be a little worried about him going forward (and in the AL East again). That zone...
  10. chawson

    Red Sox trade deadline rumors

    Since it’s bound to come up a dozen times this offseason, I’ll sidebar this Dalbec joke to note that Soto is much improved in the outfield this year. He’s at +3 defensive runs saved (Fielding Bible) and +/- 0 outs above average this year (meaning exactly average) in 2024.
  11. chawson

    Who to buy at the trade deadline?

    I generally like what Breslow says and don't think he's wrong here, but to me it never seems helpful for the FO to telegraph their intentions ahead of time. Even a statement like "we have to pick a lane" seems weird. To me that reads like Breslow wants to signal that he won't do what everyone's...
  12. chawson

    Who to buy at the trade deadline?

    Ha just realized that I really wrote Dalton Trumbo. New baby, no sleep for me this month.
  13. chawson

    Who to buy at the trade deadline?

    Yeah, this is where I’m at with Luis Robert too. He strikes me a little like the outfield version of young Javier Báez. His chase rate through age 26 (44.6%) is actually a tick higher than Báez’s was (43.8%). Power bats like that seem to really fall off. He’s thrilling and he sure smokes the...
  14. chawson

    May: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Yeah, I was on team keep Rafaela in CF but after Romy went down this was definitely the right move. Abreu has me recalling the vintage Trot Nixon era quite a bit lately. It’d be incredibly valuable to establish him as a 3-4 win RF (even as a platoon) under team control until 2030 before...
  15. chawson

    2024 Lineup (What we actually have - no trade speculation.)

    He’s already shown enough that a QO is a virtual lock, in my mind. He’s a Boras client so I’m not sure what potential there is for an extension, but O’Neill is hitting like a right-handed Yordan Alvarez and there’s nothing to suggest it’s been lucky. He’s only turning 29 this summer, and the...
  16. chawson

    Casas has a left rib fracture. Transferred to the 60 Day IL on 4/27.

    The Cooper DFA is really strange. They only signed him six weeks ago, and he's had 80 productive PAs (including ST) since. Busch has been good, but they're still not playing him against LHP and they're arguably more in need of his type after Suzuki's injury. Especially considering Breslow's...
  17. chawson

    A Dream of 2025, What is Going Right and Looks like the Sox can Build On

    I don't think this really answers my question. When we're seeing such rampant injuries to pitchers across the league, and so many examples of seemingly random pitchers transformed into success stories, why does it make more sense to commit resources to top end pitchers as they age into their...
  18. chawson

    A Dream of 2025, What is Going Right and Looks like the Sox can Build On

    If this is true, and I believe it is, why does it make sense for teams to commit a ton of resources to elite starting pitchers in their thirties/past their prime? Pitching productiveness in the max effort / Driveline era is less of an essential quality inherent in certain individuals (aces or...
  19. chawson

    Nick Pivetta to the 15-Day IL retroactive to April 6, with a right elbow flexor strain. (Bernardino called up)

    One thing we now know, relative to four months ago, is that part of the plan was to use the cap space under the 2024 CBT to frontload salary for players we sign to extensions. Bello and Rafaela have signed. Casas could join them any day. If he were extended — we know they're trying; we don't...
  20. chawson

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    That site says we’re at $222M. If we agreed to a similarly structured contract extension with Casas — for I'm guessing something in the $80 to $120 million range — that would also frontload a lot of his future salary to the 2024 payroll. That scenario would bring us within spitting distance of...