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  1. Toe Nash

    Silver Dollar - The Official NBA Betting Thread!

    I'm not in the Discord (will probably hop in when I remember) so you're probably hammering this there but the Unders have been I think undefeated so far this playoffs? I won a nice amount on Mil-Ind game 1 betting U 233 (ended at 203...)
  2. Toe Nash

    My Ideal Metric - TOTAL bases

    This sounds similar to "Total Average" but I do like the addition of extra bases taken on hits by others:
  3. Toe Nash

    My Ideal Metric - TOTAL bases
  4. Toe Nash

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    I see this a fair amount and gotta call it out. This describes Rutschman, Holliday, Kjerstad and Cowser, the latter three of whom haven't done much yet, but the Orioles have also nailed lots of later picks. The Red Sox could have taken Westburg instead of Yorke. Coby Mayo (current 24th overall...
  5. Toe Nash

    March/April: Red Sox discussion, observations and trend tracking...AKA It's not all about the Benjamins

    Yeah...Bello is their best pitcher. I don't have a lot of faith in the rest of the guys going 6+ so I don't think SJH is off here. To the extent this is a leaguewide issue, one thing you would think more teams would be developing, especially smart teams like the Red Sox, since the change in...
  6. Toe Nash

    2024 Celtic Playoff Prediction Poll

    I don't think they rest anyone, that would be malpractice, but there will probably be some games missed by the top 5 and there will be some games where shots don't fall. And I think the Finals will be really tough if it's Denver. So 6-8 losses seems reasonable but as noted there is a very wide...
  7. Toe Nash

    sǝloᴉɹo ǝɹoɯᴉʇlɐq ǝɥʇ ʇɐǝq

    It's going to be a long year. They won't suck completely but the rest of the division is just too good.
  8. Toe Nash

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    Someone with excellent strike zone judgment like Pedroia is a horrible comp for Rafaela and it's wishcasting to bring that up. You could have faith in Pedroia because he had more walks than Ks in the minors and while struggling in his first MLB time he had like a <200 BABIP which was going to...
  9. Toe Nash

    The Juice Expires (OJ Dead at 76)

    If anyone missed it and can't really remember the 90s, I thought the OJ: Made In America ESPN documentary about his career / life / the case was pretty good.
  10. Toe Nash

    Red Sox, Ceddanne Rafaela agree to contract extension

    It's not going to prevent them from doing other stuff or moving him to 4th OF / super-utility guy if they get better options, but I don't think I would have done this deal for someone with that BB/K ratio in the minors and majors. Maybe I'm old school and they have data that says he can improve...
  11. Toe Nash

    The Next Pats QB: Daniels or Maye?

    Well, none of the rule changes really apply to a QB, who were already protected, but who are going to take some hits regardless especially if they scramble or are used on designed runs (and for whom strength -- what usually correlates with weight -- is less important). I mean, Mahomes barely...
  12. Toe Nash

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    But they're only barely above the average. So even if it does, being 5th doesn't mean much other than I guess, they're not going to be terrible, which we basically knew. No one really thinks it's "dire" except that they don't have much depth.
  13. Toe Nash

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    I hope not.
  14. Toe Nash

    How good are Fangraphs Predictions (2023 Edition)

    Wouldn't Vegas O/U be a good dummy model? And agree about going over multiple years. If you're not doing better than Vegas odds over a significant sample you're probably not adding much value. I'd also like to see how close they are at predicting run differential or other underlying components...
  15. Toe Nash

    2024 Rotation and Bullpen

    I'm sorry, we're using the 5th-best K-BB% in the SPRING as some kind of indication of the pitching staff? And this got published in a major outlet? Maybe if they were first it might be worth noting, but they were fifth and if you use the more common K/BB rate they were 8th because a number of...
  16. Toe Nash

    Jordan Montgomery signs with Arizona

    Xander Bogaerts says hi. Boras didn't have a great offseason but this is his strategy. Works more often than not.
  17. Toe Nash

    Potential new NFL rules

    I mean, it's not that dangerous right now because most kicks aren't returned. But yes, the problem is that everyone is sprinting full speed and collides with each other.
  18. Toe Nash

    Potential new NFL rules

    I think the new kickoff is actually fine and makes sense for player safety. It is also not interesting today when 98% of kicks are just touchbacks. But, I think they should have figured out a way to be able to have surprise onside kicks in some fashion, OR go back to the old rules where more...
  19. Toe Nash

    Potential new NFL rules

    A couple additional thoughts on hip-drop: There are a lot of articles parroting the NFL's note that a hip drop tackle is 20-25x more likely to cause injury than a "normal" tackle. Which, of course, sounds pretty bad. But, it says here that this is based on 15 injuries on 230 cases where a hop...
  20. Toe Nash

    Misc. Pats Offseason News

    Didn't Onwenu struggle when played at RT last year, or am I misremembering? Is the thinking that keeping him there for the whole year will be better and it's easier to get more help inside?