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  1. Savin Hillbilly

    Fan Safety

    Fair point, although netting wouldn't have helped Bryce Florie, for instance.
  2. Savin Hillbilly

    Fan Safety

    So change the dimensions. Or add more outs. Whatever. What I'm saying is, if the game as we know it depends on being played with equipment that can cause disfiguring or life-threatening injuries under relatively uncommon but by no means extraordinary circumstances, and our response to that isn't...
  3. Savin Hillbilly

    Fan Safety

    Not having to worry about possibly disabling injury on inside pitches would allow them to change their approach in a helpful way, I suspect. I'm not asking for a ball that doesn't hurt when it hits you. I'm asking for a ball that doesn't break bones when it hits you. How and why would it ruin...
  4. Savin Hillbilly

    Where the Red Sox have gone wrong

    Yeah, it's pretty obvious what it is, actually.
  5. Savin Hillbilly

    Fan Safety

    Everyone's going to hate my solution. :fonz: But it would solve this problem and the problem of crippling/career-threatening injuries to players as well. Make the damn ball softer. Tennis-ball soft, if necessary. There is nothing about the game in its essence that depends on the ball being as...
  6. Savin Hillbilly

    Keeping the Sky Up. What is going right?

    Amusingly (or not?), the gap between his DRS and UZR continues unabated. Last year there was a 20-run difference between them, this year, after a third of a season, it's 6.4. If there's ever a sabermetric summit devoted specifically to the task of improving defensive metrics, it should be dubbed...
  7. Savin Hillbilly

    Pedroia Predictions

    The bolded seems confused to me. The fact that their payroll is as big as it is not only doesn't make the $13.75M less significant, it's the reason why it's significant (see David Wright comments above). The number that matters, in terms of evaluating how much a useless-but-still-on-the-books...
  8. Savin Hillbilly

    Rafael Devers, JD Martinez and the future at the corners

    Interesting hypothesis. It'll be interesting to see if this affects DD's pitcher acquisition strategy. There was a time when the Sox seemed to prioritize guys with high GB rates; that might not be a sensible approach any more, with the Sox featuring a bat heavy/glove light infield (except...
  9. Savin Hillbilly

    Rafael Devers, JD Martinez and the future at the corners

    Yes. He's the defensive equivalent of a high-K, high-power hitter like Dalbec: when the good things happen they can be very good, but bad things happen a little too often. If Devers can cut his error rate at the same time Dalbec cuts his K rate, the Sox will have a very interesting choice on...
  10. Savin Hillbilly

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    If you examined it I bet you'd find that the average of dollars paid per win produced for FA relievers is not out of line with the figure for SPs and position players. It might even be lower. It's just that the standard deviation from that average will be much higher for relievers, because of...
  11. Savin Hillbilly

    Koji Uehara retires from professional baseball

    I just remembered that I actually saw Koji at Fenway long before I had any idea who he was or how much I would come to love him. I went to a Sox-O's game April 20, 2009, and Koji was the starter. It was his third major league appearance. He pitched well that day, going 7 innings and giving up 2...
  12. Savin Hillbilly

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    We joke a lot about Cora being a genius, but this system is really pretty brilliant.
  13. Savin Hillbilly

    Koji Uehara retires from professional baseball

    (Base criteria are >50 IP and >80% relief appearances.) 1. Relievers have had a season of >12 K/9 158 times. 2. Relievers have had a season of <1.5 BB/9 132 times. 3. Relievers have had a season of <.200 BABIP 49 times. 5. Relievers have done all three of those things one time. And that one...
  14. Savin Hillbilly

    Report: Red Sox and X close on contract extension

    A little past the 1/4 pole, he's on a pace for: 45 doubles 27 homers 117 runs scored 107 RBI 93 walks It's so nice, as chrisfont9 said, to be able to say that a guy who just signed a big contract is earning the money and then some. We tend to focus on the opposite cases, understandably, but...
  15. Savin Hillbilly

    Jarren Duran

    I don't understand why you'd want to steal home on a first-pitch fastball. Wouldn't that generally be about the easiest pitch of the whole PA for the catcher to pick cleanly and pivot into the tag from?
  16. Savin Hillbilly

    Michael Chavis, SS: 2014 MLB Draft 26th overall

    Well, no, because the young David Arias had more or less league-average K rates and, in his final season with the Twins (which also happens to be the first season for which these numbers are available), an Oppo% higher than any he ever achieved with the Red Sox. Whatever it was about Ortiz that...
  17. Savin Hillbilly

    Greatest RHH of all time?

    Babe was only fat and out of shape late in his career. He was never willowy, but as a young player (and by that I mean through about 1925) pictures show him as reasonably fit. He was not only first in MLB in HR during his prime (1919-1925), but also #5 in doubles and in the top 10% in triples...
  18. Savin Hillbilly

    Rosenthal: Sale extension 5 years, $145 million

    It's tied for #2 all-time. On June 8, 2004, the Brewers beat the Angels 1-0 while striking out 26 times in a 17-inning game. What's even more remarkable about that game is the Angels' offensive performance. They only struck out 7 times in those 17 innings. They also only walked twice. That...
  19. Savin Hillbilly

    Greatest RHH of all time?

    Even if you give Williams 1943-45 at 650 PA per year using the average of his wRC+ (the best measure of pure hitting ability I'm aware of) for the two preceding and two following years--the best full seasons of his career aside from his 1957 renaissance--that makes up less than half of the gap...
  20. Savin Hillbilly

    Michael Chavis, SS: 2014 MLB Draft 26th overall

    A couple more confounding factors: slow players always appear, as a group, "unluckier" than fast players, as do players who can be shifted on successfully.