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  1. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    If there’s a question in your last post other than if I “see a problem”, just ask it. There’s no problem. And let me pull rank for a second - that paper you keep posting on different sources of variation is hosted on the website of a stats professor who I studied with in grad school. The...
  2. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    That‘s exactly how you treat it - every shot either goes in or it doesn’t. How else could this work? We’re not playing quantum basketball where each 3 has a .37 probability of having gone in Happy to keep answering questions from people actually interested in understanding how this works but I...
  3. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    I’m not fitting anything. I’m taking the Celtics’ shooting percentage in the regular season and simulating a seven game series. In one version, they shoot 267 threes and each one is independent of each other. In the other, I generate a new “true” shooting percentage randomly from their season...
  4. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Here’s something sort of related but worth thinking about in the context of postseason game planning. Who shot a higher 3 pt % in last years’ finals? Boston. Who took more free throws? Boston. Who forced more turnovers? GSW. Who had more FGA? GSW, they took 5 additional shots per game. They shot...
  5. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    I think I’m doing both while trying to couch it in a discussion of strategy. Here’s the thing. If you treat a series as having its own true 3 pt shooting percentage (drawn as a random variable from the season average), and each game within it having its own true shooting percentage nested within...
  6. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Ok say you’re trying to game plan for a seven game series. You model a bunch of different approaches to your offensive and defensive schemes. In each of the models, you assume that three point shooting are entirely independent events drawn from a binomial distribution with true mean of 0.37 (or...
  7. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    With all due respect to your perspective, the answer to the question “what is the probability of getting 81 or fewer successes in 267 independent trials if the true probability is 0.377” has been know for over 300 years and is a component of any intro stats class. The answer is there’s a 0.7%...
  8. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Thanks boss I’ll get right on that. The point I’m making is the Celtics had a disastrously bad series shooting threes AND the Heat had a disastrously good series. Under the assumption that each shot is independent of every other shot there is simply no way to expect the outcome we observed...
  9. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Those are the cumulative probabilities of hitting 81 or fewer threes in 267 chances and 89 or more in 205 chances for Boston and Miami respectively, assuming all of the shots are independent of each other. It is wildly unlikely, that’s my point.
  10. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    The probability of Boston shooting 81/267 from 3 when their “true” mean was 0.377 and each shot independent is 0.0072. The probability of Miami shooting 89/205 when their “true” mean was .344 and each shot independent is 0.003. The probability of those two things happening in the same series, if...
  11. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Pre-2008, finance incorrectly treated loan failures as independent events. In 2016, election prognosticators incorrectly treated state level outcomes as independent events. I’m getting the sense that some teams (the Houston Hardens, the Slingin’ Mazullas) are incorrectly treating single three...
  12. kieckeredinthehead

    Bob Myers stepping down as Warriors GM

    Myers did not draft Curry, and had been on the job for two months as assistant GM when they got Thompson.
  13. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    But in both parts of the rule book it explicitly defines the cases where it’s okay the player “involuntarily” ends the first dribble. In rule 10, there are three cases, none of which applied. In rule 4, the dribble is over as soon as the player touches it with two hands and/or fumbles. What am I...
  14. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    What am I missing?
  15. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    I may have missed this elsewhere, but keep an eye on Tatum on the two right split screens. He didn’t see the ball go in. He walks back to the bench dejected and then somebody tells him.
  16. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    The Heat were 4th in the league this year at forcing turnovers, averaging 15.7 / game. In last year's ECF, they got 14.7 turnovers / game from Boston. and in 2020 they got 14.0 /game. Boston was 25th this year at forcing turnovers, averaging 12.7 / game. In last year's ECF, in the four games...
  17. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    Definitely a hallmark of this Miami team
  18. kieckeredinthehead

    5/21, Game 3 @Miami

    Maybe there’ll be a rain out before game 4 so the Celtics can get that magical two days of rest
  19. kieckeredinthehead

    Celtics vs Heat ECF Redux Discussion Thread

    “The official apologies to Eddie Jurak parade”
  20. kieckeredinthehead

    5/21, Game 3 @Miami

    “And rightfully so”
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