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  1. chawson

    What does 2023 look like?

    I’ve had that feeling for months. I should really get it checked out.
  2. chawson

    Sox Sign OF Adam Duvall to 1 year deal

    Interesting point in a new Duvall profile in The Athletic. He speculates that the pitch clock could have a downstream effect on injury prevention. “I said it after ’21,” Kiké Hernández said of the season he moved full-time to center field. “After playing the outfield for the first time in my...
  3. chawson

    Let's Predict the 2023 Red Sox Season

    90 wins -Team leader in Wins? Sale -Team leader in Saves? Jansen -Team leader in ERA (qualifying)? Martin if “qualifying” included relievers, otherwise Bello -Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Yoshida -Team leader in HR? Devers -Team leader in Stolen Bases? Mondesi -Team leader in...
  4. chawson

    What does 2023 look like?

    That makes sense too, though maybe the bet is that teams with newly cleared roster spots will have signed FA stragglers by then? After all the post-pandemic roster effects I figure a lot of teams are playing this kind of roulette. I doubt there’s an exact science. The Sox tried to...
  5. chawson

    What does 2023 look like?

    These make sense to me. I don't know the precise optimal points to slip fringe players through waivers but it seems intuitive that Ort is likelier to at the end of spring training than he was in January. I think Tapia could make it onto the 26 for his ability to play center. I doubt that both...
  6. chawson

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    Some notes here in this Jennings roundup in the Athletic. The Red Sox aren’t ruling out either Bello or Whitlock for Opening Day, but Alex Cora has gone out of his way a few times to point out that if Whitlock isn’t on the roster for Game 1, it probably won’t be because of a setback. The team...
  7. chawson

    What does 2023 look like?

    The subtext for all this extremely diligent reporting about Wong's hamstring strain is that a lot of people want to see Jorge Alfaro on the team.
  8. chawson

    What does 2023 look like?

    Thanks, back at you guys and @Big Papi's Mango Salsa for your own thoughtful and well researched posts. It's nice that the post-Xander signing regional inflammation has ebbed a bit and we can think constructively rather than reactively. I'm curious to see what this team really is and can be...
  9. chawson

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    I love a good contrarian data point now and then
  10. chawson

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    The pandemic might have also been at play here too. Hansel Robles, for example, lost a few ticks of velocity and was much more hittable last April-June than he was for us in the summer of 2021. Was that because of the lockout and short spring training? Hard to say. By June, Robles had become...
  11. chawson

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    One problem with "finding 15 dirt cheap guys," or relievers who'll pitch for the league minimum (as you prefer) is that they'll assuredly be pitchers that no one else wants for even slightly more than that amount. So that leaves you with the dregs to begin with. Tampa acquire a good number of...
  12. chawson

    Matt Barnes DFA'd, traded to Marlins for LH reliever Bleier

    With the news that MLB is again cracking down on sticky stuff, the odds of a Barnes rebound seem especially slim. Much rather have Bleier.
  13. chawson

    Red Sox sign Masataka Yoshida

    Not to belabor the Pivetta discourse, but a big chunk of our so-so Fangraphs projection has to do with them projecting Pivetta to get 171 innings at a 4.42 FIP clip (one of the lowest marks on the team). If you were to swap those innings out with, say, Houck (whom they project for 26 innings as...
  14. chawson

    Padres sign Manny Machado to a 11-year, $350 million extension

    I think JA is right about Soto. The Judge deal really seems to take that option off the table for them. Soto is an elite hitter anywhere, but it's interesting that he's really not the kind of LHB who'd appear to benefit from Yankee Stadium. His power is mostly to left and straightaway — at...
  15. chawson

    Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox

    It's kind of wild that Casey Kelly was as highly regarded a top prospect (#22 on MLB's 2011 list) as he was. He was young for his level, which accounts for a lot, but the numbers really don't stand out. Here's Casey Kelly's AA line as a 20-year-old in 2010, the season before the trade: 21 GS...
  16. chawson

    Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox

    This came up too, Longenhagen said he has Yoshida as a 45 FV guy but would be happy to be proven wrong. That Bleis will pass Mayer.
  17. chawson

    Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox

    And this on Walter : Walter is 26, which would make him the oldest player on that FanGraphs list besides Kodai Senga. So it looks like Longenhagen has him as roughly comparable to a Ken Waldichuk or Hayden Wesneski type of value (both age-25) should he comes back healthy, if I'm reading that right.
  18. chawson

    Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox

    Also
  19. chawson

    Baseball America Top 100 ‘23: 5 Red Sox

    Longenhagen doing a chat on Fangraphs now and this question came up.
  20. chawson

    Spring Training 2023 Thread

    I’m not sure if this is a typo or if you intended to write dude (singular), which I fear will be the case, but I laughed. I also like the team a lot. Lots of good energy. There's breakout potential for Casas, Mondesi, Yoshida, Verdugo, Arroyo, Whitlock, Bello, Houck, Crawford and even McGuire...
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