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  1. Savin Hillbilly

    Poll: Sox 2019 Bullpen

    I thought I'd throw this thread out here because the main bullpen thread has not only brought out a lot of our standard-issue pissiness, but also some statements along the lines of "a lot of people here think ____" with the blank filled by something simplistic or hyperbolic. So I thought, hey...
  2. Savin Hillbilly

    Tearing the cover off the ball: Sox hitters and exit velocity

    I was fiddling around the Statcast leaderboard page and noticed something remarkable: Sox hitters are absolutely crushing the exit velocity column. There are 208 players in MLB this year with 250 or more batted ball events. That's about seven per team, and sure enough, seven of the 208 are Red...
  3. Savin Hillbilly

    Sullivan: Sox Hitters Have Changed Their Approach

    Fascinating article in FG by Jeff Sullivan about the way Sox hitters are going about their business differently this year. Short version: they're handling pitches out of the zone the same as ever -- i.e., well -- but they're being much more aggressive with pitches in the zone, especially early...
  4. Savin Hillbilly

    The Killer B's in 2018: What's in the Box?

    In all the discussions of FA and trade acquisitions, the question of what to expect from our young core has been mostly tabled, and yet it's arguably the collective performance of Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, and Bradley, more than that of any acquisition, that will determine our offensive fate...
  5. Savin Hillbilly

    Hanley and the $4M Game

    With three HR and several fine defensive plays last night, Hanley saved Drew Pomeranz's opening-night bacon and raised his fWAR by 0.5, providing (depending on who you ask) roughly $3.5M to $4M of value to the team in one nine-inning stretch. So far this year Hanley has been a footnote. It's...
  6. Savin Hillbilly

    Ue-2016: A Rapidly Decaying Isotope?

    Koji now has allowed a .953 OPS over the past 28 days, encompassing nine games and 36 PA. His season OPS allowed is a still-respectable .699, but his ERA of 4.78 and FIP of 3.73 are career worsts, as are his HR/9 of 1.7 and BB/9 of 2.7. He's still striking lots of people out, so there's that...
  7. Savin Hillbilly

    A BABIP Question

    Can anyone point me to a source for calculating the likely impact of BABIP differences on doubles and triples? I.e., if player X has better BABIP luck than player Y (or player X has better luck in season P than in season Q), the vast majority of that difference probably shows up in the singles...
  8. Savin Hillbilly

    Short people got....Sox contracts?

    Was just realizing that if Vazquez is back next year, the Sox could field almost an entire team of position players 5'10" or under, leaving out only the infield corners (and Sandoval barely makes it over the line):   Vazquez C (5'10") Pedroia 2B (5'9" yeah right) Holt SS (5'10") Castillo, Betts...
  9. Savin Hillbilly

    "The American League Has Gone Completely Bananas"

    Interesting Jeff Sullivan article points out that the AL has been more or less the inverse of preseason projections.   One of the implications is that the races should be wide open going forward, because if teams regress somewhat toward their original projections (as it's reasonable to expect...
  10. Savin Hillbilly

    Projecting the 2015 Sox: Do We Love Ben's Work As Much as Steamer Does?

    Steamer projects the current 40-man, minus Webster and Rubby and plus Miley, for 42.4 WAR. Add a token 2.0 WAR for Castillo (who isn't projected) and you get 44.4.   That figure would have made us the second-best team in the AL last year, trailing only the Angels, and the fourth-best team in...
  11. Savin Hillbilly

    Miller Signs With The Yankees

    And....there he goes.   Yankees to Sign Andrew Miller   It was nice having you, Andrew. Time to kick your ass.
  12. Savin Hillbilly

    Who Gets Lester?

    Let's see what SoSH thinks will happen.
  13. Savin Hillbilly

    David Ortiz, Elder Batsman

    After last night's performance, Papi's numbers look pretty gaudy. He's got an excellent chance to top 30 HR and 100 RBI for the first time in three years, and if he heats up again he's got an outside shot at a second straight 1.000 OPS season.   If his 2013 ended today, it would be top 10 among...