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I don't know that he would be rapidly depreciating if he sits. He will still have a lot of contract left and teams won't forget KD's talent level.

Is there more to Pham than just the fantasy football story? I don't get the disdain for him, but haven't payed attention to his career at all.

That doesn't seem obvious to me. Why do you think he would be better off hitting lefties in MLB?

It seems likely to me that the terms are conditional. 1) Sox trade JD and/or Eovaldi to get under tax - SD picks up more $ - Sox stay under tax. OR 2) Sox fail to get under tax - SD subsidizes less/gives better prospect - Sox stay over tax. We may not know terms until 7:30 ETish.

I don't think either are in much danger of being selected.

Mayer's a 19 year old in A ball. He shouldn't factor into any decisions.

The other draft advantage of being under the tax is it that signing players who got a QO from another team in the offseason costs fewer draft picks.

If Xander said he wants to see the market to know his value, what are the Sox supposed to do? If he doesn't want to take a discount, which is reasonable, there is no point trying to get him to take one. It also doesn't mean that he is absolutely gone. To me that is most likely what happened here...

I think there's a good chance that being offered for one of the all time greats is not taken as an insult by Brown.

Beal must have threatened to take less money somewhere else and WAS found it credible in order to get the no trade + trade kicker. WAS could offer more money than other teams, but they had to feel money alone wasn't enough.

Downs was ok in AFL against what was supposed to be low quality pitching. 23 isn't really that young for a prospect. His hit tool was supposed to be his best skill. It's not like he just needs to hit enough for excellent defense or premium power to play at MLB. When acquired the excitement was...

TL is very important to this team. It's hard for me to say they will be perennial competitors when they need to rely on his health.

It doesn't sound more plausible to me. Coaching is coaching seems more plausible. A defensive coach needs to understand what an offense is doing. An offensive coach needs to understand what a defense is doing. Instead of watching the same offense against a bunch of defenses now you watch the...

I think that is a big part of it. It is also probably to try to disguise tendencies in season.

The consensus has less information than NFL teams and is vulnerable to herding. I think a better estimate for how other teams evaluate a player is how your team evaluates that player. If you think a guy is worth a late first round pick, assume the rest of the league sees them similarly. The best...

A 10 year career is pretty good for a second round pick or any pick really. Jordan Richards had an 8 year career, not bad at the end of the 2nd round really. Stars? No, but NFL players. A lot of players don't pan out. The draft commentary industry barely attempts K/P evaluation, so I wouldn't...

Who are the misses when the Pats go against consensus? Duke Dawson and Vincent Valentine (I really liked him as a prospect) were the only ones who popped out scanning the draft history. Admittedly I forget what the consensus was on some guys like Gus Scott and Brock Williams. Duron Harmon and...

Fair on most of those guys now that I look it up. I don't pay much attention to predraft rankings. Gronk's projections were all over the place because of the medical concerns, so he was a weird prospect. Still I'm not sure that there is a case to be made that objectively "chalk" works out...

I'd like to see the work on this. Lots of his better picks have been against consensus- Seymour (slightly early, 1st projection but not top 10), Light, Mankins, DMac, Gronk (a little "early" but not quite as far as some of the others), Solder, Thuney and (hopefully) Dugger come to mind as...