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  1. effectivelywild

    Foundation for next year?

    Well, since the seams are now flatter, I think there is the belief that it makes it harder for pitchers to grip the ball well, resulting in some loss of spin as well.
  2. effectivelywild

    Chris Sale to IL with elbow inflammation

    On the flip side, pretty amazing than Xander has been able to tough it out this season given the injury he must surely have had which would have motivated him to sign his extension.
  3. effectivelywild

    Dave Dombrowski knows more than you do

    Only if he reinvents himself as a submariner with a screwball.
  4. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    I dunno, I'd still prefer to use my best guy and just end the game if possible. I think once you hit extra innings, "saving" your best reliever becomes sort of silly, unless you save them from pitching to the bottom of the order, even if you're the home team. The whole argument about "what if...
  5. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    I think you're ignoring the possibility that, after using your elite reliever in the 7th, its also possible then for the Sox to score more runs, thus making it no longer a close game. I understand your point about the ninth inning being "the end" so there is less time for the offense to bail...
  6. effectivelywild

    MLB/Atlantic league to experiment with the idea of stealing first base

    Easy: You put a little marker on the first base line that if the batter goes beyond that, they are considered a runner. Obviously you would have to have separate lines for right and left handed batters. If a batter advances beyond the marker without yelling "STEALS!" as he moves, he is out...
  7. effectivelywild

    Where the Red Sox have gone wrong

    Yes. That is because clutch is a descriptive stat---it describes what already happened. You just described how the clutch stat works. From the Fangraph's definition of clutch: "Clutch does a good job of describing the past, but it does very little towards predicting the future. Simply...
  8. effectivelywild

    Where the Red Sox have gone wrong

    Did the fact that you typed that last sentence make you hesitate at all before hitting the "post" button? It should.
  9. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    What makes the analysis really difficult is that is not a straight 1-for-1 swap. In many cases, a sort-of tired reliever of middling value will still be better to cover those particular 20 pitches than the starter at that point. But it ignores that the 20 pitches are not equal in terms of...
  10. effectivelywild

    Report: Red Sox and X close on contract extension

    I think Xander also suffers a little bit in terms of narrative. He kind of burst on the scene as this clutch young guy who hit well through the postseason. 2014, pretty meh---what you expect from a guy just really joining the big leagues, split between 3rd and SS. 2015 and 2016---so-so...
  11. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    Hopefully he realizes that he currently has no real value in the majors and needs to go down tot he minors to see if he can fix whatever is wrong. In that sense, Boston might be actually appealing, as they've had some success claiming relievers off the scrap heap and making them useful, and...
  12. effectivelywild

    Does consistency or streakiness create more value?

    My guess is that a guy on a hot streak can turn in a bunch of 3+ and 4+ RBI games that massively swing win expectancy (though I just vomited a little bit about using RBIs to make a advanced stat argument, so the WAR swings could also be used) whereas multiple single games of very low RBI/WAR...
  13. effectivelywild

    2019 MLB Draft - Red Sox tracker

    I yearn for the days of Eric Van, whom I assume we are referring to? https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/9227396/baseball-stats-revolution-changed-sport-not-culture-espn-magazine Those were truly the glory days of this board.
  14. effectivelywild

    Keeping the Sky Up. What is going right?

    I suppose this could be a link to the original thread purpose---"We have a number of players that have at least some trade value, so as to help our farm system achieve the loftiest of all baseball goals, the revered spot on top 5 farm systems list."
  15. effectivelywild

    Chicks dig the long ball! How a new baseball has forever changed AAA

    All it would prove is that the major league balls are "juiced" relative to the ones the minor leagues were using. Still interesting on its surface.
  16. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    At this point, he is only somewhat better than position players pitching. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/24375887/the-year-position-player-pitcher-numbers He does have significantly better K/BB ratios and about 1 fewer HR/9. (SSS caveats, obviously)
  17. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    yeah, I misread the nuances of his post. Apologies.
  18. effectivelywild

    Building a Bullpen, 2019 edition

    https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10688&position=P His last good season was 2016 when he was with the Brewers. He didn't pitch in 2017. In 2018 he pitched poorly in two levels of the minors and in the majors. He has been bad in 2019. So yes, while early season struggles can be...
  19. effectivelywild

    ERod Thread 2019

    I prefer to believe that Pedroia was just casually throwing balls with someone and one took a real nasty turn and he realized he had accidentally discovered a nasty slider grip and thought "jeez, do I have to do EVERYTHING around here?"
  20. effectivelywild

    ERod Thread 2019

    It still astonishes me that Pedroia, a player to whom I assume has not pitched in years, would go up to a major league pitcher and basically say "oh hey, want me to show you how to throw a good pitch, even though I have not thrown a pitch at any level of professional baseball?" and that the...