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  1. Bellhorn

    Belichick's 4th and 1 decision

    There has been some discussion of this in the Goat thread, but I figured it was interesting enough to warrant its own thread. With so much uncertainty in the probabilities of the various events, attempting to pin down a specific win probability differential really serves little purpose, other...
  2. Bellhorn

    DVOA and other topics in football analytics

    I have noticed a few posts in recent weeks that have begun with something along the lines of "I'm not sure how DVOA works, but...". (There are also a couple of posters in this forum who seem to find the stat personally offensive, for reasons that I have not quite been able to fathom). So I am...