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  1. Tuff Ghost

    Manchester United 2021-2022: Any trophy will do

    I think part of the difference in total points is also what the model thinks of Fred / McTominay. The article's author did answer some questions in the comments asking why such a young player was predicted to make such a difference: He also isolated the Varane effect in the comments: And if...
  2. Tuff Ghost

    Manchester United 2021-2022: Any trophy will do

    Last week, the Athletic had an interesting article on expectations for United next season based on data forecasting by Real Analytics. Without Sancho or Varane, they projected them at 66 points (about 4th in table). Sancho alone boosts that to about 70 points, and then Sancho, Varane, and...
  3. Tuff Ghost

    Arsenal 21-22: Brexit FC

    Was Ramsdale that bad, in total, last year? I honestly don't know, but for an age 22 season on a terrible team, he seemed alright to me. He was the Blades' player of the season (he had signed with them at £18.5 million after being Bournemouth's player of the year the prior season). It seems like...
  4. Tuff Ghost

    Arsenal 21-22: Brexit FC

    It was nice to get confirmation yesterday that Smith Rowe is sticking around for a while. He signed a 5-year extension and also will now wear number 10. It's a fun time if you like dreaming on potential with two talented Hale End graduates wearing the 7 (Saka) and 10 shirts. I just got around...
  5. Tuff Ghost

    Arsenal 21-22: Brexit FC

    I am happy with Arsenal targeting young players to act, essentially, as understudies with their acquisitions of Tavares and Lokonga (Albert Sambi Lokonga deal is official). Tavares has some similarity to Tierney, and Lokonga definitely seems like a Partey-style mid-fielder. Scott Willis at...
  6. Tuff Ghost

    Arsenal 21-22: Brexit FC

    When I first heard the Ben White rumors, I was a little surprised. I had not anticipated Arsenal spending big on a CB this summer, but I've slowly come around to the idea. A quick rundown on what I like: He's an excellent dribbler and ball-carrier. He is very cool under pressure and can get...
  7. Tuff Ghost

    June Game Thread

    Nola struck out Conforto to tie Seaver's record (10 straight Ks) and then gave up a double to Alonso.
  8. Tuff Ghost

    June Game Thread

    Aaron Nola heading into the bottom of the 4th with 9 straight Ks against the Mets. The MLB record is 10 straight Ks by Tom Seaver. View: https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1408531442708193283?s=20
  9. Tuff Ghost

    Euro 2020 Day 12 Game Thread: How Will Scotland Narrowly Fail to Qualify This Time?

    I am happy to see Bukayo Saka getting a start. He absolutely outclassed Slavia Prague in an Arsenal 4-0 victory in April. Saka played right-wing that day and the left-back for Slavia Prague was Jan Bořil, who got subbed-off at halftime. Today, looks like Saka is lining up on the right wing and...
  10. Tuff Ghost

    Three True Outcomes, The Bobby Dalbec Thread.

    While I don't think Santana is likely to end up here, I do think he'd be okay at Fenway. His xHR at Fenway over the last 3 years is +2: Year Actual HR xHR for Fenway 2019 34 32 (-2) 2020 8 11 (+3) 2021 11 12 (+1) Out of ballparks where he has at least 100 PAs, his tOPS+ is 4th highest...
  11. Tuff Ghost

    The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

    When you are on a player's summary page, the MLB Averages is for the player's career. It reads 26.5% because that is the MLB average for the league during Dalbec's career, which happens to be 2020 to 2021. The league average this year is the 25.7% I posted. If you look at another player's...
  12. Tuff Ghost

    The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

    You added the screenshot with an edit, but I can now see your issue. You are looking at MLB averages for Dalbec's career, i.e. 2020-2021. I am referring to this season.
  13. Tuff Ghost

    The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

    On the screenshot, I posted, look one row below Dalbec. It reads, "League Average" and has 25.7%.
  14. Tuff Ghost

    The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

    Baseball Reference has it the way I posted it (Dalbec 26.5%, League 25.7%), not sure what you are looking at.
  15. Tuff Ghost

    The Red Sox ARE good. So now what?

    I think Dalbec is one example of a player who actually does have a somewhat patient approach, but just swings and misses so much that the end result is pitchers can put him away and he does not get the chance to walk. Walking definitely is a skill that requires the ability to put the ball into...
  16. Tuff Ghost

    Euro 2020 day 2 game thread: Waiting for Lukaku

    I am sick to my stomach. Did he just collapse or was there a collision? I had left the room when he went down.
  17. Tuff Ghost

    2020/21 Premier League Prediction Thread: It's That Time Again

    Final tally from the SoSH averages: Largest underestimations: West Ham (11 spots: 17th vs 6th) Aston Villa (7 spots: 18th vs 11th) Largest overestimations: Sheffield United (9 spots: 11th vs 20th) Wolves (6 spots: 7th vs 13th) Correct predictions: Manchester City (1st) West Brom (19th)...
  18. Tuff Ghost

    USMNT: Hold My Beer

    The "goalie" thing is interesting to me. I do not think I have ever heard the term "goalie" used by a British commentator. I do recall goalie being prominently used while I played as a kid growing up in New England, but at this point it seems more like a hockey-term only. I do not watch a lot of...
  19. Tuff Ghost

    How do you feel about your club?

    Arsenal: 7/10 Part of the reason that my score is as high as it is, is the simple fact that I have accepted Arsenal's new place in the football world. They are basically now Everton circa 2006 to 2013, a stretch in which Everton finished 5th through 8th every year, with a max of 72 points and...
  20. Tuff Ghost

    Pay That Mendes His Money: The Summer 2021 Transfer Thread

    Chelsea are keeping busy with a few updates: 1. Tuchel signs a new 3-year contract: (The Athletic link) 2. Olivier Giroud's contract extended by a year (exercised option): (The Athletic link) 3. Thiago Silva's contract extended by a year (exercised option): (The Athletic link) 4. Tomori...