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  1. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    They wouldn’t have to be as he could be a part of a 3 team where he is being signed and traded, which would create outgoing salary to match. If Beal is being traded to the Warriors it will happen on draft night. But if the Celtics are doing a deal based primarily on future firsts, the teams...
  2. JakeRae

    2021-22 NBA Off-season Thread

    Yeah, this deal looks a lot better for the Pels if they’ve sold Zion on being patient for a year and them having tons of cap space next offseason, but that doesn’t appear to be the case. For Memphis, moving from 17 to 10 is pretty significant value. And I suspect Memphis doesn’t think they...
  3. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    I think the latter may be another part of the disconnect here. I think odds are Smart will not be overpayed. Defense first guards are rarely paid full value. It’s hard to see anyone offering 4/100 for Smart. 4/80 I can see, but that isn’t that different from Murray per year anyway. I don’t see...
  4. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    I think this is a big part of the difference. I view Smart as a natural 1 that just has never gotten a real chance to prove it. Setting aside his off year defensively this past year, he’s always previously excelled defensively in his limited opportunities at the 1 and he also fits much better...
  5. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    Agree that Murray isn’t a salary dump. My point is more that any trade of Smart where you think the other team values that he is expiring rather than valuing his Bird rights is almost certainly not a good fit and, similarly, if what another team values is an expiring, we have Tristan and Jabari...
  6. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    If their main goal is cap flexibility (which they already have in abundance) why wouldn’t Tristan and Jabari be just as good? The Celtics would need to add future draft value to make that work (or swap Jabari for one of our young players with value), but if the Spurs are mainly looking for...
  7. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    The Suns have neither 3 stars nor a top flight center. There is a case that the Bucks fit either of your categories, but the Suns definitely do not and are the favorites in the finals right now. The Suns are actually a pretty good model for the Celtics in a year. They have two top flight players...
  8. JakeRae

    Smart Move: Keep or Say Goodbye to Marcus?

    The negative appeal to authority isn’t helping your argument. People don’t value Tristan because a lot of us don’t think he’s very good. I’ll use myself as an example. I thought Tristan was a big overpay and it has nothing to do with his position. I would’ve gladly paid Theis that much money in...
  9. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    No one is untraceable. But Fournier would immediately be a negative value on anything other than a 1 year deal that pays him more than 20/year. He’s at best about a 15/year player in on court value. To answer the question others are asking about whether he can be our third star, the answer is...
  10. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    Yes. Fournier is a slightly better than MLE-level player. He’s also the type of guy that an over the cap contender should pay extra for, so something in the range of 4/60 isn’t crazy. If he’s getting offers above his current deal, I think it’s hard to justify keeping him. At that point we are...
  11. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    This trade really doesn’t make any sense for Boston. Outside of one really strong season that’s now three seasons ago, Brogdon is, at best, as good as Smart. Trading 2 starters and a potential rotation player for a guy who is arguably not even the second best player in the trade (depending on...
  12. JakeRae

    Smart Move: Keep or Say Goodbye to Marcus?

    Every FA class 2 years in the future is “big” between actually contract ends and opt outs. Then there are extensions, trades, opt outs at different times, opt ins, guys get old or hurt, and all of a sudden it’s not that big anymore.
  13. JakeRae

    Smart Move: Keep or Say Goodbye to Marcus?

    This would be a great move.
  14. JakeRae

    Smart Move: Keep or Say Goodbye to Marcus?

    What MLE type player are we getting for a second that’s actually worth it? You’d basically need to be taking a player off another teams hands for cap relief on their end, and it cannot be a sign and trade since that too would hardcap us. I’d guess the plan is something like trading Thompson...
  15. JakeRae

    Smart Move: Keep or Say Goodbye to Marcus?

    Alex Caruso is my first choice of players that feel like possibly realistic MLE targets.
  16. JakeRae

    Kemba Walker + 2021 First Round Pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown

    I’m not sure about this. He is a not insignificant negative on offense and it’s an open question if his defense makes up for it. He’s a really good rebounder and a reasonably good positional defender but he doesn’t generate turnovers and he commits too many on the other end. He also doesn’t...
  17. JakeRae

    Kemba Walker + 2021 First Round Pick to OKC for Al Horford, Moses Brown

    I don’t disagree with the takeaway that Brown for the 16 pick wasn’t the analysis. If anything, I think the right take is that Brown bridges the value gap between 16 and the Kemba/Horford swap while also solving for the cap. (I say this because I think 16 was a bit steep as a price for this...
  18. JakeRae

    Inside the Celtics Locker Room: Dysfunction Junction

    I don’t want to speculate on why. I’m saying a different coach may make headway either by emphasizing the issue more or presenting it differently or something else. I mostly think this is not the solution. He needs a coach who can make him understand why he is a better player, and the Celtics...
  19. JakeRae

    Inside the Celtics Locker Room: Dysfunction Junction

    Smart earns his minutes. That said, I think he’s a guy who could benefit a lot from a coaching change because there’s a couple things he does on offense that are real negatives that are also easy fixes. The biggest one is Smart needs to not shoot pull up threes. There’s not a clear statistical...
  20. JakeRae

    Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

    This is a bit of an overstatement. It’s less valuable than a true expiring, more valuable than a multi year deal, and a lot more valuable than taking a risk on a player with an option like Kemba. Horford also might be open to a buyout that sacrifices a big chunk of that year 4 guarantee for a...