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  1. bowiac

    The Poll: Is Wyc burning Brad- Should CBS be torched at season's end?

    In my defense I posted this when George was coming off injury, and his recovery seemed pretty uncertain (unlikely?). I was obviously aggressively wrong there, but it's a weird snapshot in time as well. I'm mostly just glad you didn't pull up my Dragan Bender vs. Jaylen Brown takes.
  2. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    Yeah - that's my point. The value is in predicting future team performance, where it performs well.
  3. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    As you can imagine, they're somewhat secretive, but generally the various NBA gambling consortiums I'm familiar with all work the same way. They have their own version of RAPM, with a fairly sophisticated prior, which they combine with daily minutes projections to get an estimate of each team's...
  4. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    Measuring how well a metric predicts individual player performance is hard and can be circular. The simple answer is that if you want to predict a player's RAPM next year, you take their trailing 3-year RAPM, add a simple aging adjustment, and then regress to the mean by about 25%. If the player...
  5. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    One general note in favor of the utility of these various "all in one metrics" is that they're pretty strong at predicting future team performance. Essentially every NBA gambling group I know uses some flavor of these metrics. You can even use simple RAPM, add a basic aging curve, and combine...
  6. bowiac

    Math in Basketball: Garbage or Not Garbage?

    I just posted in the Tatum thread about some of this, so maybe it's worth moving over here. Mods feel free to do that if appropriate. FWIW, PIPM did not use a linear regression. It was not like RAPM in that way. Rather, it could be computed from simple box-score and on/off data for a single...
  7. bowiac

    Tatum got the bag(5 years, $195 million)

    LEBRON is also using BBall Index's "player role stuff" to influence the prior, not just boxPIPM (I helped Krishna put some of LEBRON together, and did most of the backtesting). With respect to their luck adjustment as flagged by @slamminsammya - I agree this is DIPS-like, and drops meaningful...
  8. bowiac

    Daniel Theis to Chicago for Mo Wagner

    Fair enough I don't really buy that Thompson has matchup value over Theis (even against big matchups), but I get there's salary matching value to his contract. Fairly frustrating outcome here.
  9. bowiac

    Daniel Theis to Chicago for Mo Wagner

    Did the Celtics trade Theis to give more playing time to Tristan Thompson? What am I missing.
  10. bowiac

    Remote Desktop Solutions Over VPN

    So I have a very similar setup to you, except reversed. I have a nice home setup with dual monitors, a fancy keyboard I like, etc... And I have a fairly restrictive work computer which can't install stuff, and then a fancy personal desktop on which I do various NBA projects. My solution is to...
  11. bowiac

    C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall

    This sounds right to me. I didn't like the Nesmith pick since shooting is basically the least translatable skill from college to the NBA; I don't like investing draft assets in shooters as a rule. But it's also the most prone to sample issues and adjustments when you get into the league. If you...
  12. bowiac

    James Harden to Brooklyn

    If Houston wants to pay Oladipo $35M/year, I presume he'd be very interested. Your last sentence is correct, but the point I'm trying to articulate is that I don't think Simmons is a very good 24 year old to build around. He's a good, but not great player, and has shown zero signs of growth...
  13. bowiac

    James Harden to Brooklyn

    Yeah - this is why I don't think the Philly offer was especially credible relative to what they got from Brooklyn. I don't even like Oladipo all that much, but it's just very hard to build a contending team around Simmons, given the issues he causes your offense. Obviously reasonable minds can...
  14. bowiac

    James Harden to Brooklyn

    Players as good as Ben Simmons become available as free agents with regularity if you're willing to pay them $35M/year. If Ben Simmons doesn't improve, then he has functionally zero asset value on his current contract. Gordon Hayward was available this year. Ricky Rubio has been available time...
  15. bowiac

    James Harden to Brooklyn

    Ben Simmons is a fine player, but he's shown functionally zero improvement since coming into the league. He can't shoot, he won't shoot, and his role on offense in close and late situations is functionally non-existent. He's a special defensive player, but is incredibly awkward to build around...
  16. bowiac

    What really causes home field advantage?

    The traditional way to do this to do a regression between the home teams and the road teams to project margin of victory. The intercept in that regression is home field advantage. This captures the strength of the teams in calculating home field advantage, so you don't end up with a 'Gillette...
  17. bowiac

    Draft Retrospectives: What Have We Learned?

    With Brown, not especially; I give Danny a wider berth on seemingly questionable picks now, but I can't say what the concrete lesson is from Brown for me. It's still not a profile I'd like coming out of college (low production top athlete with a lot of fit/role/scheme excuses for why he was...
  18. bowiac

    Tristan Thompson to Boston: 2 years, $19M, player option to re-up with Khloé Kardashian

    Agree. If your view of Thompson's mobility is more positive, then he can be more useful than I think he is. I don't have a positive sense of him there, but I'm obviously no scout (which is why I'm so informed by analytics - which hate him).
  19. bowiac

    Tristan Thompson to Boston: 2 years, $19M, player option to re-up with Khloé Kardashian

    Sure. I think Thompson is likewise too immobile to be a credible defender mostly. He's a good rebounder, and this gives the illusion of being useful defensively, but he's just too slow and plodding to be useful against most bigs. Stop me if this seems familiar - as I do think we've seen this...
  20. bowiac

    Tristan Thompson to Boston: 2 years, $19M, player option to re-up with Khloé Kardashian

    I don't want to overreact since Thompson won't make or break the team, but I think this is probably the least I've liked a Ainge free-agent signing. It's like getting a less useful version of Enes Kanter for twice the price. I'd be surprised if Thompson is in the rotation by the playoffs.