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  1. NobodyInteresting

    Likelihood of an NFL 2020 Season

    Here in the UK we've already seen one sport (F1) replaced on TV by its esport least as a one off. It was...strange. I actually think F1 or any kind of motorsport is probably the easiest to replace with a computerised version - the simulations there are closer to reality than in...
  2. NobodyInteresting

    NFL Overtime

    Doesn't everyone who has two (or more) children know how to solve this? It's basically the same problem as dividing a cake fairly, no? No kick off in overtime. Team A chooses the ball starting position. Team B then chooses which team starts with the ball. Then you play with the current rules...
  3. NobodyInteresting

    MLB/MLBPA discussing '19/'20 rule changes: Universal DH/no sept callups/3 batter rule

    The overwhelming hatred for the 3 hitter minimum proposal is interesting to me, because I like that idea a lot. I find "real-time" baseball excruciatingly slow (I actually took advantage of being in the UK to watch the games last year the following morning at 1.5x speed and nothing, including...
  4. NobodyInteresting

    SB53: Choose Your Own Adventure

    Ridiculous as it sounds, I actually remember seeing a rugby sevens international in which this scenario happened. New Zealand (utterly dominant) v Japan (pretty new to international rugby at the time). The all blacks won the ball on every single kick-off, scored on every possession, racked up...
  5. NobodyInteresting

    Probability and Baseball: 90% of this is true, the other half is false

    Of course, it's thinking that this is what the models are saying that is causing the people who understand what the models are actually saying to suggest that the people who don't understand what the models are saying don't understand what the models are saying. If you see what I'm saying.
  6. NobodyInteresting

    Could we be in for a Record Season?

    FWIW, Fangraphs defensive values are one of the few stats that don't update nightly (or at least they haven't in previous years). I'm not sure how frequently they update, or when the last update was, but the numbers they're currently displaying could be a week or more out of date.
  7. NobodyInteresting

    Two-Way Lin?

    I got several posts into the thread before I realised they were talking about last year. Uncanny how similar his start has been this year. Alas I suspect a .600 BABIP may be too much to hope for going forward. Fangraphs projections agree, expecting a miserly 249/307/353 for the rest of the...
  8. NobodyInteresting

    2018 AFCCG: Jags v. Pats (Non-Brady Edition)

    I hope he's got an early tee-time next weekend. Getting in 36 holes in a day is tougher than it seems.
  9. NobodyInteresting

    Celebrating What Is

    Whenever my girlfriend makes fun of TBs "rushing" abilities (which is quite often) I point out that he ranks 3rd among active players in playoff rushing TDs. That's 3rd among all players, not 3rd among QBs. (Brady has 6, behind only Blount with 8 and Lynch with 9)...
  10. NobodyInteresting

    Gone but not forgotten - Dombrowski's Dealings.

    While I don't disagree that Margot is likely going to be the main value traded, Brock Holt has provided around $30m of surplus value to the Red Sox (per Fangraphs). If Asauje does the same for San Diego, and I think a Holt-like path looks a reasonable possibility at this point, that's the kind...
  11. NobodyInteresting

    2017 AL Wild Card Chase

    They do. Projections include expectations of playing time for the actual personnel at the club, updated daily(ish)
  12. NobodyInteresting

    The 2017 Rotation

    You're not kidding. I'm away with no tv/internet access for three weeks starting on the 19th. It's a scheduling disgrace not to put the days off then.
  13. NobodyInteresting

    Gone but not forgotten - Dombrowski's Dealings.

    FWIW, Chapman pitched 15.1 meaningful innings for the Cubs last year, since they were all but guaranteed a playoff spot before his arrival. He finished with a postseason ERA of 3.45 with 4 saves and 3 blown saves. His WPA was 0.17. I think describing him as "a big part" is generous. The Cubs...
  14. NobodyInteresting

    Two-Way Lin?

    Mookie Betts wRC+ since he joined the team: 129, 119, 135, 116 (YTD). His minor league numbers: 103, 160, 166, 177, 158 Xander Bogaerts wRC+ since he joined the team 85, 81, 109, 113, 112 His minor league numbers: 145, 123, 144, 159, 153, 133 Even if you believe completely that Lin's 139 wRC+...
  15. NobodyInteresting

    Pomeranz is healthy and pitching for now

    It is what it is. When you're predicting one single baseball stat off another single baseball stat 0.3 is completely reasonable. To put that number in context, the Rsq means the correlation is just over 0.50. By comparison, correlation of AVG from one year to the next is lower than that (0.427...
  16. NobodyInteresting

    Pomeranz is healthy and pitching for now

    FWIW, R^2 on that was 0.27. Running the same analysis on K%-BB% gives a 2.2 point improvement in ERA- for every 1% increase in K%-BB% (R^2 = 0.31 & eyeballing the graph (which I'm sorry I don't know how to post easily) the linear assumption more obviously holds this time, though it looks OK the...
  17. NobodyInteresting

    Pomeranz is healthy and pitching for now

    Looking at qualified starters from the 2016 season I get a (linear) regression where ERA- is 141 for a 0% strikeout rate and drops by 2.3 points for every 1% increment in strikeout rate. So on that quick and dirty analysis a 3% increase in strikeout rate would give you a 7 point improvement in...
  18. NobodyInteresting

    The 2017 Lineup

    His recent hot streak has lifted Mookie to 6th in positional fWar with 2.8. But he's done that with a BABIP of just .275, lower than anyone else in the top 33 (Rizzo at 34 has a BABIP of just .244). In fact the average BABIP of the top 30 (excl Mookie) is .352. If Mookie had that average BABIP...
  19. NobodyInteresting

    The Craig Kimbrel Thread

    Yes of course, for your guy to be really valuable everyone else's guy has to be not-so-valuable. Regardless of position. The point was more that here we are considering whether Kimbrel is having the greatest relief pitching season of all time, and it's not clear he's even having the greatest of...
  20. NobodyInteresting

    The Craig Kimbrel Thread

    What's interesting to me is that we're apparently seeing a new level of dominance from elite relievers, since Kimbrel isn't alone Kimbrel: 26.2 IP - 1.01 ERA - 0.25 FIP - 53 K - 5 BB - K/9 17.89 - BB/9 1.69 - HR/9 0.34 Ranks only 8th in ERA (Qualified relievers) behind Miller, Betances...