The 2022 String - push or pull?

Rovin Romine

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The assumption for this thread is that we're out of it. That we're not going 27-10 the rest of the way to finish with an 87 win record and be roughly in the WC scrum.

So - we're playing out the string. What do you want to see happen?

Call-ups? If so who and at what cost (how does that happen with the 40 man?)

Vets re-establishing themselves? (The club will lose a lot of goodwill in the player-community if they jettison FAs to-be or limit their playing time.)

Vets or others being shut down for the rest of the season?

DFAs to free up roster space?

Trades? Sure, the players can't appear *in* the post-season, but perhaps someone like SD would like some help *getting* there. Also, do we trade with other non-contenders with an eye to 2023?

Edit - as pointed out below one can only trade MiL players not on the 40 man, or waive 40 man players in the hopes someone claims them and their contracts. Aug. 31 remains the post-season eligibility date for any trading or claiming club to add such a player to their 40 man.
 
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moondog80

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Honestly? I want to see the team do well, specifically Casas, but in front of a lot of empty seats. The approach this past offseason was unacceptable for a team that was two wins from going to the World Series, I'd like to see the front office embarrassed a bit.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

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I want them to do whatever they think is best for the long-term development of guys like Casas. If that means leaving him in AAA until next year, so be it.
 

sezwho

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I want them to do whatever they think is best for the long-term development of guys like Casas. If that means leaving him in AAA until next year, so be it.
Same as above. The only thing I’m particularly emotional about, in terms of the deck chairs, is seeing Casas hit MLB pitching.

It seems this is off the table, given the service time constraint is no longer a factor and the need and still no call up, so they must just think he’s not ready. In which case what do I know from my couch in the basement?

More Bello though
 

8slim

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I think you just play your best starting 9 every night and hope to be competitive. This doesn't have the feel of late 2014, where it was important to have Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley get as many reps as possible in anticipation of the next season. Who are we doing that for on the roster now? Duran? Dalbec? Hardly seems the same.
 

Humphrey

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I want them to do whatever they think is best for the long-term development of guys like Casas. If that means leaving him in AAA until next year, so be it.
Same with pitching. Do not want 2023 to be a "we'll be great if veterans x, y, z ....." come through. Most likely ain't happening.
 

walt in maryland

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Are we below or above the tax line? Anyone have any clarity on this? If we're above the tax line, JD is a prime candidate to be waived.
I've read that they are more than $5 million above the luxury tax and there is zero opportunity for the team to get under the threshold. So waiving players would serve only to free up playing time for others. No financial impact.
 

Diamond Don Aase

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Trades? Sure, the players can't appear *in* the post-season, but perhaps someone like SD would like some help *getting* there. Also, do we trade with other non-contenders with an eye to 2023?
As @Petagine in a Bottle mentioned, players acquired prior to September are eligible for the post-season but only players that have not been a member of the 40-man roster this season can be genuinely traded.

I would like the Red Sox to take a closer look at fringe 40-man roster candidates Frank German and Zack Kelly but, if Boston truly believes that either one of those relievers is not capable of matching the contributions of Ryan Brasier or Darwinzon Hernandez, then a trade would be preferable to losing German in the Rule 5 Draft or Kelly to free agency.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Right, my bad. This is relatively new, right -- AAA used to end at the end of August? Either way, I'll edit my post.
AAA used to run until around Labor Day, then had its playoffs. But with September game rosters limited to 28 players instead of expanding to the full 40, there's no reason for the minor league season to end earlier than MLB anymore.
 

Apisith

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I've read that they are more than $5 million above the luxury tax and there is zero opportunity for the team to get under the threshold. So waiving players would serve only to free up playing time for others. No financial impact.
If we're only $5m above the tax line then waiving JD and Kike would bring us below the line. Neither are getting a QO from us.
 

sezwho

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Are we below or above the tax line? Anyone have any clarity on this? If we're above the tax line, JD is a prime candidate to be waived.
Funny this has been posed a number of times here, and I’ve poked around the net looking, but never seen the math done out either. I suppose the DFA value changes continually as the contracts tick down anyway.

I’m also not clear how much it would dictate a change even if we could. As I understand it the only change is draft compensation for a qualifying offer. We may be doing a couple of these (Eovaldi, Kike, Xander?) and I’d rather have the 2nd round pick than fourth.
 

jwbasham84

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Someone would claim JD. Even with the terrible stretch he's been on, teams will still view him as a professional hitter that could help them during the playoffs. Kike on the other hand would be questionable. I would like them to do something positive this year and get below the threshold so that our comp picks from Xander and Eovaldi are better.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Someone would claim JD. Even with the terrible stretch he's been on, teams will still view him as a professional hitter that could help them during the playoffs. Kike on the other hand would be questionable. I would like them to do something positive this year and get below the threshold so that our comp picks from Xander and Eovaldi are better.
If they plan on bringing both back, it doesn't really matter.

It would give the sox about $800k more to work with if they got under the thresh hold and both left, though. Better than nothing, I guess.
 

Rovin Romine

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The trade deadline has passed. They can waive players, who can play in the post-season if claimed prior to Sept 1.
So:

1) Waive anyone, and their contract can be claimed by another team; if on or before 8/31 they are post-season eligible, if after, they can be claimed but are not post-season eligible.

You'd have to think someone like Wacha would be claimed by someone. I'm not saying that's a good idea or strategy, but if they're productive, the claiming club only has to pay salary to get that production.

2) Minor league trades of anyone not on the 40 man are allowed. Post-season eligibility is also Aug. 31.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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So:

1) Waive anyone, and their contract can be claimed by another team; if on or before 8/31 they are post-season eligible, if after, they can be claimed but are not post-season eligible.

You'd have to think someone like Wacha would be claimed by someone. I'm not saying that's a good idea or strategy, but if they're productive, the claiming club only has to pay salary to get that production.

2) Minor league trades of anyone not on the 40 man are allowed. Post-season eligibility is also Aug. 31.
Yeah, I’m sure JD and Wacha would get claimed. I’d probably waive JD and Plawecki and bring up Casas and Hernandez. Wacha is probably needed, who would start to take his place? Dumping Familia for German probably makes sense.

(Not that it matters, but I do wonder if dumping useful players is kind of frowned upon. It’s well within the rules as far as I can tell but seems kind of shitty and against the spirit of the new deadlines . Not that the Sox should worry too much about that).
 

E5 Yaz

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I suspect they're not going to do anything that we'd call significant, just play out the string and exit, followed by a bear
 

jwbasham84

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I completely agree that they will do nothing significant. Not what I want, and not what could be seen as "best" for the team in the long run, but Petagine is exactly right that them dumping JD, Wacha, etc. while they are still useful players would be completely frowned upon and is in bad form. Not that they should care.. but would draw ire that I am sure ownership doesn't want.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, I’m sure JD and Wacha would get claimed. I’d probably waive JD and Plawecki and bring up Casas and Hernandez. Wacha is probably needed, who would start to take his place? Dumping Familia for German probably makes sense.

(Not that it matters, but I do wonder if dumping useful players is kind of frowned upon. It’s well within the rules as far as I can tell but seems kind of shitty and against the spirit of the new deadlines . Not that the Sox should worry too much about that).
I probably prefer Wong at this point. He's crushing the ball in August. Of course, they could call up the other one on September 1st and have both.
 

JCizzle

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If they plan on bringing both back, it doesn't really matter.

It would give the sox about $800k more to work with if they got under the thresh hold and both left, though. Better than nothing, I guess.
Getting under the threshold, if possible, should be a priority for a better draft pick rather than saving the owners money. If I'm reading it correctly, we can offer Xander and Nate a QO and get a 2nd round pick if we're under the threshold, but a 4th if we're over.

I also think the team should prioritize getting AB's for Casas, Wong, and Valdez (DH). If that means waiving JD and others, then it is what it is. If Casas is going to be relied on to contribute to the big league club from the jump in 2023, I think it's important to start getting him acclimated to big league pitching immediately.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I completely agree that they will do nothing significant. Not what I want, and not what could be seen as "best" for the team in the long run, but Petagine is exactly right that them dumping JD, Wacha, etc. while they are still useful players would be completely frowned upon and is in bad form. Not that they should care.. but would draw ire that I am sure ownership doesn't want.
Now that roster sizes are 28, I'd argue it's bad form not to release these guys so they can go to a playoff team, and so the team can see what they have with Casas, Wong, Hernandez, Valdez etc.

It was bad practice and frowned upon to claim Kevin Millar too. Hopefully they make the right move, not the accepted move.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Getting under the threshold, if possible, should be a priority for a better draft pick rather than saving the owners money. If I'm reading it correctly, we can offer Xander and Nate a QO and get a 2nd round pick if we're under the threshold, but a 4th if we're over.

I also think the team should prioritize getting AB's for Casas, Wong, and Valdez (DH). If that means waiving JD and others, then it is what it is.
Right, and 2 2nds over 2 4ths works out to about $800k.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Getting under the threshold, if possible, should be a priority for a better draft pick rather than saving the owners money. If I'm reading it correctly, we can offer Xander and Nate a QO and get a 2nd round pick if we're under the threshold, but a 4th if we're over.

I also think the team should prioritize getting AB's for Casas, Wong, and Valdez (DH). If that means waiving JD and others, then it is what it is. If Casas is going to be relied on to contribute to the big league club from the jump in 2023, I think it's important to start getting him acclimated to big league pitching immediately.
If getting under the threshold is a priority, it should have been addressed three weeks ago when they had some semblance of control over it. Releasing players in the hopes that another team will claim them and relieve the Sox of the salary obligations feels like a move with more possible downside than up.
 

AB in DC

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How long does it take to clear waivers?

The reason I ask is because of the 8/31 playoff deadline. If we waive JDM (for example) today, then I'm not sure anyone would claim him at his current salary -- they'd wait until he was a FA and then sign him for the minimum. But if they waived him on the morning of 8/31, for example, you'd be much more likely to get a claim before the deadline if that's the only way to get him on a playoff roster.
 

jwbasham84

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Now that roster sizes are 28, I'd argue it's bad form not to release these guys so they can go to a playoff team, and so the team can see what they have with Casas, Wong, Hernandez, Valdez etc.

It was bad practice and frowned upon to claim Kevin Millar too. Hopefully they make the right move, not the accepted move.
I would love to see it. Much like they did with JBJ, let these guys hopefully catch on with someone and make a run. They certainly are going nowhere fast here. And $800k come draft time could be the difference in signing someone who could help the club for years to come. I would much rather spend the rest of the season watching the growing pains of our youngsters as we see what they can contribute rather than watch our current roster unable to move runners and score runs...
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I probably prefer Wong at this point. He's crushing the ball in August. Of course, they could call up the other one on September 1st and have both.
That makes sense. I was thinking Hernandez is a guy they need to get a look at since he will be out of options but it seems possible / likely that they’ve already decided he’s not part of any future plans.
 

Harry Hooper

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When the Sox pick up an option for 2023 (Paxton, for example), the player's 2022 salary in terms of bookkeeping actually gets reduced, yes? I'm not sure how many players and how much money that would potentially involve.
 

E5 Yaz

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If getting under the threshold is a priority, it should have been addressed three weeks ago when they had some semblance of control over it. Releasing players in the hopes that another team will claim them and relieve the Sox of the salary obligations feels like a move with more possible downside than up.
This is one reason why I think they just won't do anything dramatic. What's the point? They don't seem in any rush to bring Casas up. They seem inexplicably devoted to Plawecki, so unless there's an injury, the catchers won't come up.
The trade deadline strategy blew up in their face. It was a worthy gamble at the time, it just didn't work out. They might as well own it the rest of the way, and say they don't want to disrespect the game by tanking against teams fighting for playoff spots
 

moondog80

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If getting under the threshold is a priority, it should have been addressed three weeks ago when they had some semblance of control over it. Releasing players in the hopes that another team will claim them and relieve the Sox of the salary obligations feels like a move with more possible downside than up.
I suppose you could say the postseason was still attainable 3 weeks ago, and the calculus has since changed?
 

Daniel_Son

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Honestly? I want to see the team do well, specifically Casas, but in front of a lot of empty seats. The approach this past offseason was unacceptable for a team that was two wins from going to the World Series, I'd like to see the front office embarrassed a bit.
My only concern with the FO getting embarrassed is that increases the likelihood of them getting too involved and prioritizing some big, dumb signings (Hanley/Panda) that don't quite fit our needs. Bloom is clearly building something - the last thing I want is Henry/Werner cashing in too early.
 

moondog80

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My only concern with the FO getting embarrassed is that increases the likelihood of them getting too involved and prioritizing some big, dumb signings (Hanley/Panda) that don't quite fit our needs. Bloom is clearly building something - the last thing I want is Henry/Werner cashing in too early.
I thought of that too but there's a lot of space between that and the JBJ debacle. I trust them to thread that fairly wide needle.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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When the Sox pick up an option for 2023 (Paxton, for example), the player's 2022 salary in terms of bookkeeping actually gets reduced, yes? I'm not sure how many players and how much money that would potentially involve.
Right now, Paxton is on the 2022 books for $10M ($6M salary plus the $4M player option for 2023). If they pick up his 2/26 option, the 2022 hit reduces to just the $6M figure. Seems a bit foolhardy to commit to spending $26M in 2023/2024 just to save $4M on 2022 salary calculations.

As I said before, I think the window for reducing the 2022 payroll to get under the luxury tax closed with the trade deadline. Getting under now requires waiving players and those players getting picked up off waivers by another team. If it were possible with just one player, I think it might be worth attempting. Since it will probably require hitting bingo on multiple players getting claimed on waivers, I don't think it's a viable path.
 

The Gray Eagle

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I doubt anyone would claim JD and have to pay what, about $5 million for a month of him? He's a DH only, runs like he has a broken back, has 1 home run since June, and has a second half line of .190/.269/.253.

If he was released, sure someone would eventually sign him for the last couple weeks for the minimum. But taking on $5 million for him now? I don't know, maybe if Bloom talked to a couple teams who need bats and said, "Hey would you claim JD Martinez if we cut him?" and some team said they would claim him, they could try it. But I doubt any team would say they definitely would, or if you could trust them if they did. "Yeah sorry, we were going to claim him but then some other guy got hurt and now we don't have the space, etc."

Maybe if he hits a couple HRs this weekend and looks better, and a playoff contender was desperate, someone could claim him on the 31st. He'd need to start looking much better ASAP though.
 

dynomite

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I doubt anyone would claim JD and have to pay what, about $5 million for a month of him? He's a DH only, runs like he has a broken back, has 1 home run since June, and has a second half line of .190/.269/.253.
To be clear, I don't think the Sox are going to have a DFA party. Not to mention It would be gutting to see likable, talented players DFAed for pure salary reasons (even in the hopes of giving them a chance to chase a ring). And of course it could be tough to explain to players and fans alike -- I'm not sure I can think of another similar situation in which a team literally dumped veteran players in this way.

Anyway, for the sake of the thought experiment... Only 37 games (22.8% of the season) left. If I'm doing the math right (no guarantee) per Sportrac:
- Kiké ($1.8M prorated) and Wacha ($1.6M) both seem like assets some team would claim off waivers
- Eovaldi ($3.8M) is possible but less of a sure thing given his cost and injury situation
- Rich Hill feels somewhere in between ($1.1M).
- As for JD, as you say, hard to imagine any team ponying up $4.4M for a month of a DH who hasn't hit in months.

The Phillies, for example, just lost Zack Wheeler to the IL, and Dombo traded for Nate once before in 2018. That one worked out pretty well.

The Twins lost Byron Buxton to the IL and the Brewers have been starting a collection of nobodies in CF -- Kiké would offer a huge upgrade to both.

At the end of the day, we're talking about somewhere between ~$3M and $8M in savings in exchange for (what I imagine would be) an avalanche of negative press? And potential outrage among the MLBPA and others?

I suppose you could say the postseason was still attainable 3 weeks ago, and the calculus has since changed?
Yes, I've posted this elsewhere but at the Trade Deadline they were 1 game above .500 and 2 games out of the 3rd Wild Card spot. Since then the circumstances have... uh... changed.
 
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jwbasham84

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But I disagree that it would be gutting to see likeable players DFAed from this team. While yes, a chunk of the reasoning would be to fall below the tax threshold, I personally would rather see us call up Casas, Wong, Valdez, et. al. to get them some time at the major league level. There will be some growing pains, see Bello, but it would be nice for them to get experience and allow us to evaluate what we may have... I would much rather cheer for a team of our youngsters than continue to watch the futility that we have been putting on the field each night with our "likeable" veterans.
 

mauf

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I've read that they are more than $5 million above the luxury tax and there is zero opportunity for the team to get under the threshold. So waiving players would serve only to free up playing time for others. No financial impact.
I’ve seen conflicting reports.

This report from early June said the Sox were just $2.3M over the tax threshold, which suggests the CV trade alone might have been enough for them to squeak under.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/06/06/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/MLB-Tax.aspx


On the other hand, this article published right after the deadline says they were $5-10M over the threshold and that they didn’t do enough to get under.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-rumors-red-sox-organization-135000032.html
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I’ve seen conflicting reports.

This report from early June said the Sox were just $2.3M over the tax threshold, which suggests the CV trade alone might have been enough for them to squeak under.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2022/06/06/Leagues-and-Governing-Bodies/MLB-Tax.aspx


On the other hand, this article published right after the deadline says they were $5-10M over the threshold and that they didn’t do enough to get under.

https://sports.yahoo.com/mlb-rumors-red-sox-organization-135000032.html
The Vazquez savings are probably canceled out just by taking on the Pham contract. I don't believe there was any net reduction in the payroll after the trade deadline dealings.

Spotrac estimates they're almost $10M over.

Cot's estimates it at just over $11M over.

Probably some wiggle room in their benefits/minor league pay estimates, but I can't imagine there's $10M worth.
 

mauf

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The Vazquez savings are probably canceled out just by taking on the Pham contract. I don't believe there was any net reduction in the payroll after the trade deadline dealings.

Spotrac estimates they're almost $10M over.

Cot's estimates it at just over $11M over.

Probably some wiggle room in their benefits/minor league pay estimates, but I can't imagine there's $10M worth.
I was under the impression that the Reds absorbed the balance of Pham’s 2022 salary, but I’m not sure where I read that and could certainly be wrong.

If they’re $10M over, it doesn’t even matter; Pham’s post-deadline salary is somewhere around $2M.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I was under the impression that the Reds absorbed the balance of Pham’s 2022 salary, but I’m not sure where I read that and could certainly be wrong.

If they’re $10M over, it doesn’t even matter; Pham’s post-deadline salary is somewhere around $2M.
I'm just going by what I see on Cot's spreadsheet, which shows the cash the Padres sent along to subsidize Hosmer, but does not show anything subsidizing Pham. I'm assuming with Vazquez a $7M total hit for 2022 and Pham a $7.5M, it is more or less a wash. And knowing how the Reds operate of late, I think the attraction of trading Pham was not having to pay the $1.5M buyout of his option for next year (included in that $7.5M figure).
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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To be clear, I don't think the Sox are going to have a DFA party. Not to mention It would be gutting to see likable, talented players DFAed for pure salary reasons (even in the hopes of giving them a chance to chase a ring). And of course it could be tough to explain to players and fans alike -- I'm not sure I can think of another similar situation in which a team literally dumped veteran players in this way.
You're right. The Sox will certainly not have a DFA party, because DFAing players won't accomplish any money savings. When a player is DFAed, the DFAing team is still on the hook for his contract. E.g. JBJ: the Sox DFA him, Toronto picks him up, pays the MLB minimum portion of his salary and the Sox are on the hook for the rest.

Waiving players, which most posters here are talking about, works like this:

"Any player under contract may be placed on waivers ("waived") at any time. Before the abolition of August trades in 2019, teams were required to place any player they wished to trade after MLB's July 31 trade deadline on waivers before trading him.

If a player is waived, any team may claim him. If more than one team claims the player from waivers, the team with the weakest record in the player's league gets preference. If no team in the player's league claims him, the claiming team with the weakest record in the other league gets preference. In the first month of the season, preference is determined using the previous year's standings.

If a team claims a player off waivers and has a viable claim as described above, his current team (the "waiving team") may choose one of the following options:

  • arrange a trade with the claiming team for that player within two business days of the claim; or
  • refuse the claiming team's request and keep the player on its major league roster, effectively canceling the waiver; or
  • do nothing and allow the claiming team to do three things: assume the player's existing contract, pay the waiving team a waiver fee, and place the player on its active major league roster.
If a player is claimed and the waiving team exercises its rescission option, the waiving team may not use the option again for that player in that season—a subsequent waiver would be irrevocable with a claiming team getting the player essentially for nothing.[8] If no team claims a player off waivers after three business days, the player has cleared waivers and may be assigned to a minor league team, traded (to any team), or released outright.

The waiver "wire" is a secret within the personnel of the Major League Baseball clubs; no official announcement of a waiver is made until a transaction actually occurs, although information sometimes leaks out.[8][9] Before the abolition of post-July 31 trades, players were often waived during the post-July "waiver-required" trading period for teams to gauge trade interest in a particular player.[8] Usually, when the player was claimed, the waiving team would rescind the waiver to avoid losing the player unless a trade could be worked out with the claiming team."

So what we're talking about here is the point bolded above -- waiving players to allow their contracts to be picked up by another team (no trades possible after the trade deadline). That's the only way to achieve the financial savings to possibly get under the tax cap.

Personally, I'd be fine with letting go of JD, Kiké, Wacha, Eovaldi and Hill if it would get the team under the cap. Especially JD. I'd let just JD go, regardless of getting under the tax.