Will the Sox make the playoffs? And how far if so?

Yes? No?

  • No

    Votes: 318 85.9%
  • Yes- out after a play-in game

    Votes: 11 3.0%
  • Yes- out after WC around

    Votes: 39 10.5%
  • Yes-out after ALCS

    Votes: 8 2.2%
  • Yes- lose in WS

    Votes: 3 0.8%
  • Yes- shock the world!

    Votes: 7 1.9%

  • Total voters
    370

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
3,407
It certainly seems like people’s opinion on that trade is their opinion on Bloom going forward. Seems like there are some people who hated everything about it and have hated everything that’s happened since then. There are some who… I don’t think anyone likes it, but I think some thought it was maybe the least-bad option, and those people still are on board with what Bloom is doing. And then I think a lot of people are somewhere in between. Feel free to correct me if I’m misrepresenting anything.

To be clear, I think all of these are valid positions and I won’t try to change your mind. I get it if you like the team less these days; I also get the impulse to defend your team’s FO. For my part, I feel like I understand most of Bloom’s moves, but I don’t think they are, for lack of a more eloquent descriptor, very much fun. I’m sure some of you are thinking “who cares if the team is winning, though?” and I get that. I also realize that my line was the same one many people used during the Ben C. years, and dear LORD did it drive me up a wall. So I get pretty much all of the reactions.

EDIT: This was re: the discussion of the Mookie trade on the last page, I should’ve quoted it. Apologies for the confusion and the post in general, really.
 

Sandman5756

New Member
Jul 31, 2021
96
This team finds ways to lose, something that the GM has contributed to in a plethora of ways. The current series in KC is a case in point. Every game the Sox lost could have been won. It is really exasperating to see Duran, part of whose game I love, get to balls and not catch them, lose them in the sun, or the twilight, or the lights. If Jackie Bradley were playing in CF today (final game of the KC series,) there are at least two and probably three runs that would not have scored.

You can't blame Bloom for the Kike injury, but you can blame him for not opening up the coffers for Schwarber, for trading a hitter who had a great arm and good range and a lot of power for Bradley and a few prospects and hoping that Bradley would suffice. The Sox had great production from RF last year; this year that have had almost none. DFA-ing Bradley, when we have Duran learning how to play CF and failing badly at it, was NOT a great move. Basically, I am not sure whose call it was (Blooms or Cora's) to keep Duran in CF when we had a gold glove CFer in Right and a quality RFer in left. The failure to put Jackie in CF has cost the Sox.

This team is no fun to watch right now, and part of the reason is the pretense that we're still in this thing, but we are going to sacrifice any real chance by trying to see what we have in Duran as a centerfielder.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
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Jul 14, 2005
23,721
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Too soon to tell.
Or not.

Mathematically they're still in it. And I can see an "all breaks right" for them path to get into the post-season.

But after the play on the field we saw yesterday and today, I don't reasonably see the team turning it around. And I don't think they have the time to spend a week getting their shit together. So my vote is "no" - they will not make the playoffs.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 14, 2009
9,139
Wiscansin, by way of Attleboro
Last night was the night where it became clear any notion of the team making the postseason went from the sunniest optimism to outright delusion.

Today confirms the shift. They are not a playoff team. They will be lucky to not be a last place team.
 

simplicio

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 11, 2012
4,763
Watching this team continuously embarrass itself in KC, absolutely not. Fully in favor of tanking the season at this point and using the winter to lock in Devers and fix the damn bullpen.
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

Don't know him from Adam
SoSH Member
Mar 14, 2006
9,534
Kernersville, NC
I see almost no hope of them making the playoffs and they’ve become basically unwatchable for me at this point. I’ll probably continue to tune in here and there to catch some Devers ABs, but I’m pretty much done.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,386
Since I'm the only one who misspelled his name, I'll answer you. Mild dyslexia. The brain knows, but the fingers don't always follow along.

Why does it bother you that much?
I've seen others do it, too.

And it doesn't *bother* me, but considering how the constant misspelling of another young pitcher's name became a meme on this site...
 

streeter88

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 2, 2006
1,807
Melbourne, Australia
In the preseason poll, I picked 81-85 games and I think I said exactly 84 wins. Even that’s now looking optimistic. I will be back USA this week and will tune in, but I think the ceiling now is 78.
 

MadSince2012

New Member
Apr 10, 2022
11
North Adams, MA
I'd be happier seeing Larry Bird and Kevin McHale walking through the door of the Fenway clubhouse than 'answers' like Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. The lack of fans in seats and the lack of viewers have to be at least mildly concerning but the bottom line is that Henry is doing spreadsheets and Bloom has to take whatever the outcomes are and try and get at least 10 guys ready for first pitch with half a dozen guys ready to come in in the 5th inning. This team is as bad as 2020.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,838
Unreal America
Their best stretch as you said was the stretch in June where they went 19-4. If they have another 19-4 stretch they'd be pretty much a lock, but they certainly can make the playoffs without a run as hot as they were for June. And they couldn't sustain it because the entire pitching staff got hurt which meant instead of reverting to being a solid team which would have been fine they fell to a terrible team in July with half their roster hurt.
They’re more or less healthy now and they just got stomped by a hapless Royals team.

They had a fun run for a month-ish, and that appears to have been as good as it’ll get this season. There’s nothing about this team post-All Star break that provides any legitimate hope that they have another great (or even very good) month in them.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,308
They’re more or less healthy now and they just got stomped by a hapless Royals team.

They had a fun run for a month-ish, and that appears to have been as good as it’ll get this season. There’s nothing about this team post-All Star break that provides any legitimate hope that they have another great (or even very good) month in them.
They still have 10 guys on the IL including 2 very important position players, 2 guys they were counting on to be starters this year (not counting paxton) and 2 lefty relievers. Replace Duran with either Kike or Refsnyder and Hernandez with either Taylor or Straum alone and they don't "get stomped", nevermind having either of their 2 highest paid players available.
 

8slim

has trust issues
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Nov 6, 2001
24,838
Unreal America
They still have 10 guys on the IL including 2 very important position players, 2 guys they were counting on to be starters this year (not counting paxton) and 2 lefty relievers. Replace Duran with either Kike or Refsnyder and Hernandez with either Taylor or Straum alone and they don't "get stomped", nevermind having either of their 2 highest paid players available.
We’re counting Refsnyder as “important”? Didn’t we just trade for Pham and cut Bradley for… reasons? Duran doesn’t have to be out there. That’s a choice the organization has made.

Its also a choice to keep trotting Hernandez out there. He’s awful.

I don’t buy what you’re selling.
 

donutogre

Member
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Jul 20, 2005
3,194
Philadelphia
Voted “no,” feeling pretty good about that decision after this series. I’m not exceptionally mad about it, this is just not a good team. It wasn’t before the trade deadline, and it definitely isn’t now. It sucks when everything seems to break the wrong way, but that happens from time to time. But I didn’t think they had the playoffs in them at the beginning of the season, either. Not that I’m some wise genius, but I just felt like they had a few too many holes to achieve much beyond .500 ball.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,308
We’re counting Refsnyder as “important”? Didn’t we just trade for Pham and cut Bradley for… reasons? Duran doesn’t have to be out there. That’s a choice the organization has made.

Its also a choice to keep trotting Hernandez out there. He’s awful.

I don’t buy what you’re selling.
The choices in center field were Duran or Bradley, not sure how exactly that's really a choice the organization made when Kike and Ref are both hurt. And Ref was really good for the month and a half or so he was with the team, so yeah he was pretty important.

Also not that much of a choice to have Hernandez when he's one of 2 healthy lefty relievers on the 40 man.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
10,231
The choices in center field were Duran or Bradley, not sure how exactly that's really a choice the organization made when Kike and Ref are both hurt. And Ref was really good for the month and a half or so he was with the team, so yeah he was pretty important.

Also not that much of a choice to have Hernandez when he's one of 2 healthy lefty relievers on the 40 man.
Refsnyder started four games in CF this season. He's played 28 games in his entire major league career there. Is he really a center fielder? And if you think his hot streak in limited playing time means that he's suddenly become important at the age of 31 after 6 seasons of futility, well, good luck with that.
 

LesterFan

Member
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Dec 12, 2010
15,049
Boston, MA
The Rays are 6 games ahead of the Sox with just as many, if not more, key injuries than the Red Sox. Including arguably their best player in Wander Franco. Brandon Lowe just recently came back after missing 3 months. Kiermaier out for the season. Margot, Zunino, Ramirez. Their rotation has also been without Glasnow all season, Baz has been hurt, Fleming has been hurt. Key injuries in the pen as well with Wisler, Feyereisen, Kittredge all out.

The Red Sox have had their offensive core in tact pretty much all season until Story broke his wrist and Devers missed 10 days. Sure, they've missed some pitchers especially in the rotation and Whitlock in the pen, but a good team should be able to at least remain competitive until guys come back. The past month and a half has shown they're not a good team.
 

8slim

has trust issues
SoSH Member
Nov 6, 2001
24,838
Unreal America
The choices in center field were Duran or Bradley, not sure how exactly that's really a choice the organization made when Kike and Ref are both hurt. And Ref was really good for the month and a half or so he was with the team, so yeah he was pretty important.

Also not that much of a choice to have Hernandez when he's one of 2 healthy lefty relievers on the 40 man.
As mentioned, Refsnyder isn’t a CF. And we’re talking about the same Kike who was hurt in the first week of June (a.k.a. The middle of their one great stretch), and was batting lousy before that, right? If we were settling for an all-glove, no-hit CFer we had one in Bradley… who we cut.

Besides, are we now accepting getting whomped by KC because we didn’t have Kike Hernandez… but did have X, Devers, Martinez, along with Hosmer and Pham?

As for Hernandez, he stinks. I don’t care if he grew a third arm and threw with that, he shouldn’t be pitching anything remotely resembling a meaningful inning.
 

Salem's Lot

Andy Moog! Andy God Damn Moog!
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
14,466
Gallows Hill
This team sucks. There is probably a better chance of a 78-84 finish then making the playoffs. It’s a shame that they actually had a good June. It probably cost them a top 5 draft pick.
 

gattman

New Member
Jul 15, 2005
263
Silver Spring, MD
Injuries are absolutely part of the issue this year. Along with several other factors like underperformance from key players (JD, Kike, Verdugo to name a few) and roster construction (RF, bullpen, maybe 1B).

Would things be different if we had Sale, Story, et al, now? Somewhat, but let’s be honest, the main reason guys like Hill, Wacha, Strahm & Paxton were available for the cost they were is because of their injury histories. And before the season started the Sox knew Sale wouldn’t be available for at least a couple of months.

Put another way, if the plan was at least partially predicated on full health & performance from Hill, Wacha & Strahm, a meaningful contribution fr Paxton & limited other injuries, then it was a flawed plan.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

critical thinker
SoSH Member
Dec 19, 2009
9,386
This team sucks. There is probably a better chance of a 78-84 finish then making the playoffs. It’s a shame that they actually had a good June. It probably cost them a top 5 draft pick.
You honestly think this team will win 24 of the remaining 52 games on the schedule?
 

ZMart100

Member
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Aug 15, 2008
3,189
With Pham and Duran, two well established shit heads on this team, and no more JBJ-- I am rooting for them to lose.
Is there more to Pham than just the fantasy football story? I don't get the disdain for him, but haven't payed attention to his career at all.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
With Pham and Duran, two well established shit heads on this team, and no more JBJ-- I am rooting for them to lose.
Tommy Pham may have a tough exterior, but I think he’s earned it. If folks are gonna weight in on his character they should read this and this.

I’m not sure he’s much of a solution for the Sox this year and the slap situation was pretty silly, but he seems like a guy to root for overall.
 

Daniel_Son

Member
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May 25, 2021
1,693
San Diego
Is it me or does Xander have a little Nomar ‘03-‘04 look about him. Just a look of disinterest? Projecting?
In his last ~100 plate appearances, he's hitting .321/.380/.476. There's a lot of things wrong with this team right now, but Xander is not one of them.

Interestingly, I also looked at Nomar's splits from 04 - I didn't remember him hitting .327/.365/.523 after he returned in June. Hell, he was crushing it in July (.386/.438/.591). He also had a better 2nd half at the plate than Cabrera did (.299/.366/.453 v. .294/.321/.457). I'm not trying to relitigate a trade that happened 20 years ago, but it's weird how things get remembered, isn't it?
 
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GB5

New Member
Aug 26, 2013
675
24 out of 52 is absolutely in play. The Sox close with a ton of games against contenders and teams fighting tooth and nail to get into the tournament. My guess is the Sox will be far enough out that they will not be playing with the same intensity. I wouldn’t be stunned if they lose something like 8 out of 10 coming in.
 

brandonchristensen

Loves Aaron Judge
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2012
38,187
Tommy Pham may have a tough exterior, but I think he’s earned it. If folks are gonna weight in on his character they should read this and this.

I’m not sure he’s much of a solution for the Sox this year and the slap situation was pretty silly, but he seems like a guy to root for overall.
Great read. Gained a lot of respect. Tough exterior is right. But love the hard work ethic. Inspiring.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
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Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
Sox got another statistic today you don't want: Royals tied their all-time record for runs scored against the Red Sox in a series. Of course it was a four-game series. Recent Toronto series was another bad one of course. Feels strange for these things to be going the way they are.
 

mfried

Member
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Nov 23, 2005
1,680
Is it me or does Xander have a little Nomar ‘03-‘04 look about him. Just a look of disinterest? Projecting?
I think that the Vaz trade had a devastating effect on Xander, and that he is making some effort to recover, but that he can’t quite summon the motivation. This dynamic could well hurt his ability to negotiate the contract in this off-season, with the Sox or anyone else.
 

cournoyer

Member
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Dec 11, 2012
515
Enfield, Connecticut
I think that the Vaz trade had a devastating effect on Xander, and that he is making some effort to recover, but that he can’t quite summon the motivation. This dynamic could well hurt his ability to negotiate the contract in this off-season, with the Sox or anyone else.
I'm sorry but I find this kind of thing RIDICULOUS. Just Friday he went 4-5 and stung two hard hit balls yesterday that were tough luck outs with a nice opposite field single. Why do you say he can't summon the motivation and the trade has had a "devastating effect" on him? I understand it was a frustrating weekend as a Sox fan but just throwing this crap out there without real evidence is bizarre.
 

Rovin Romine

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Jul 14, 2005
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I'll read that when I have a chance.

But assault over a fantasy football dispute? I doubt my opinion of him will change.
Let's put it this way - if some kind of personal feud that escalated to an argument featuring a slap was the worst bone-headed thing Pham ever did, he's totally beaten the odds.

Which is not to make excuses for his behavior. But that said, if that's his only bad-behavior blip (as stupid as it was), I'm more than fine letting him pay the price he actually paid, moving past it, and rooting for him to succeed.
 

johnlos

Member
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Aug 22, 2014
248
The Rays are 6 games ahead of the Sox with just as many, if not more, key injuries than the Red Sox. Including arguably their best player in Wander Franco. Brandon Lowe just recently came back after missing 3 months. Kiermaier out for the season. Margot, Zunino, Ramirez. Their rotation has also been without Glasnow all season, Baz has been hurt, Fleming has been hurt. Key injuries in the pen as well with Wisler, Feyereisen, Kittredge all out.

The Red Sox have had their offensive core in tact pretty much all season until Story broke his wrist and Devers missed 10 days. Sure, they've missed some pitchers especially in the rotation and Whitlock in the pen, but a good team should be able to at least remain competitive until guys come back. The past month and a half has shown they're not a good team.
Right, the Rays have better organizational depth. In theory that's what Bloom is trying to fix with trades like the Vazquez one. But people don't want to hear it because they think 2 months of a 1 WAR catcher is going to make the difference.

Even then, the fact the Sox had so many rotation injuries and had a historic number of rookies enter the rotation was a bigger hit than anything the Rays felt. The team was a solid WC team before everyone went down at once. If we had the Yankees luck and vice versa we'd probably be right with them in the hunt for the pennant (the first 4 months the Yankees had like 10 missed starts or something absurd like that).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
6,348
I'm sorry but I find this kind of thing RIDICULOUS. Just Friday he went 4-5 and stung two hard hit balls yesterday that were tough luck outs with a nice opposite field single. Why do you say he can't summon the motivation and the trade has had a "devastating effect" on him? I understand it was a frustrating weekend as a Sox fan but just throwing this crap out there without real evidence is bizarre.
I asked the question about Xander and that was the response by the poster quoted above. I asked because there were some quotes in the media by him that sounded like he was frustrated, and despite him still hitting... he didn't look like he was happy during the two games I watched against Houston. I didn't see the KC games but X just had a pretty damned sad poor doe-eyed look to him. Then again... as I asked in my questions.... maybe I was projecting? That was a rough stretch when it was clear that Bloom didn't throw in the towel and didn't really address the weaknesses. He just sort of saturated the towel and sucked on it like Jerry Tarkanian. And then the garbage play of the entire team against KC.... so I'll take the general response to be, "no... it's not him... it's you."
 

cournoyer

Member
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Dec 11, 2012
515
Enfield, Connecticut
Yeah, I think this is fair. This team's vibe is obviously not Mookie dancing around the dugout levels right now and it's a bummer. Devers had a pretty sad 5-1 solo shot carriage ride yesterday for example. Chaim's deadline feels more like a wash than anything to me but it is too bad they had a rough weekend. Pretty crucial stretch coming up against the Braves and Yankees, they need to find a way to win some of these games or they'll be down much worse (emotionally and playoff wise).
 

catsooey

New Member
Jun 27, 2019
161
A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
I’ve been wondering this all year. And now with hearing about Eck’s retirement, it feels like just one more bad omen towards a very bleak future. Much like life in general, it feels like we lose the best people and the worst ones are around forever. I think we may not know the full story of what’s happened in the Sox FO until somebody writes a book. I don’t know what Chaim is really doing here, what decisions are his or how much power he has. But the fact that we’re even asking these questions is a very bad sign.
 

johnlos

Member
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Aug 22, 2014
248
A question for the much more informed: Is Chaim just misplaced and is a superb frame director but not GM? Is the GM part of him because Henry has handcuffed him, or he just can't cut the mustard there? I would love to hear any and all opinions.
Did you forget about last season? I could go through a list of Bloom's biggest moves and build an argument he's doing just fine (Kiké, Pivetta, Schwarber, Whitlock, even Story acquired at great values) but proof is in the fact we made the ALCS last year. I don't think anyone blames him (as opposed to the owners) for the Mookie deal, so it seems shortsighted to say he's doing a bad job because 2022 has sucked.

Also important to remember the Sox had *the worst* farm system in baseball (according to BA) when Bloom took over. BA rated them 11th before this year.
 

Archer1979

shazowies
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Jul 18, 2005
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Wild card standings are insane right now. Baltimore would be the third WC entry if the season ended today.

Speaking of the Orioles, is the win that the Sox had with Baltimore on Thursday considered a series sweep (or at least a series win)?
 

Brianish

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5,556

Archer1979

shazowies
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The cheap 1 - 0 series win against Baltimore aside, the Sox actually took two of three from an AL East opponent for the first time in 2022!!!

Let there be dancing in the streets, drinking in the saloons, and necking in the parlor!
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
4,662
FanGraphs playoff odds are now at 17.2%, roughly the chances of a Kevin Plawecki hit.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
To resurrect the way too early projections from April/May, the Sox are currently 57-59 (.491). The 3rd Wild Card (Rays) are on pace to win 86 games.

To win 86 games, the Sox would have to finish 29-17 (.630). Obviously winning more would require… winning more.

All the math gets annoying when the truth is the Sox just need to win — a lot. Taking 3 of the last 4 from the Orioles and Yankees was a nice start. Sweep this awful Pirates club and see where things stand.