How to get back in this thing

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I can't speak for anyone else, but the only thing I'm willing to associate with the shortened spring training is the usage of the pitching staff (short leashes, low pitch counts for the starters, etc). What can't be blamed on the short spring training is how the offense started. The biggest difference between the Yankees and Red Sox at the end of April was offensively. The Yankees were scoring runs, and the Sox were not. It's not coincidence that the Sox' record got substantially better when the offense started producing better than 3.5 runs a game.
On this very site I heard a ton of reasoning that the shortened spring training was a cause of the slow start. As noted, other teams weren't affected by it.

In any case, "getting back into this thing" has a substantially different meaning today than it did a month ago.
 

NYCSox

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The Yankees are on 120 win pace. That’s why they are so far ahead, I think you kind of have to tip your cap to them for that. Sure, the Sox could be closer if they had played better. Or they could be farther out if they had played worse.

They are clearly playoff contenders despite a lousy start, so the idea that the season was over in May has been proven to be incorrect. There’s a ton of games left, and any team that makes the playoffs has the potential to win it all. Works for me.
I mean who expected 1968 pitching performances from their entire staff top to bottom and stiffs like Trevino and Torres and corpses like Matt effing Carpenter hitting like this?
 

dynomite

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It just pisses me off to see the Yankees playing .733 baseball and the Sox not in the same stratosphere. Yankees have the best record in baseball, Sox are 13th out of 30. After beating them last year in the standings and the playoffs, this wasn't the plan.
Totally get that. I would prefer the Yankees play .000 baseball to be quite honest.

Still, I was envious when the Rays won 100 won games last season, and the Dodgers and Giants won 107 and 106, and was reminded yet again of that line in Moneyball: “No one cares if you don’t win the last game of the season.”

That’s an exaggeration, of course. I would rather the Red Sox be in contention for the #1 seed and atop the Division. But more to the point, while I know others especially including you may disagree, after 4 World Series championships in 15 years personally I just want them to be relevant, competitive, play into October, and give themselves a chance to win a ring. The rest is always sort of a crapshoot, no matter your payroll or regular season wins.
 

Ganthem

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Nope. Not hard at all to quibble. You'd think it would be, though
If my quote was directed towards this particular road trip you would have a point. Since it was speaking about the season at large you don't. Remember context matters.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I mean who expected 1968 pitching performances from their entire staff top to bottom and stiffs like Trevino and Torres and corpses like Matt effing Carpenter hitting like this?
Carpenter has 6 HRs in 30 PAs. He had 3 HRs in 249 PAs last season.

Check the water, check the balls, check the bats. That's waaaaaay off the bell curve.
 

chawson

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Carpenter has 6 HRs in 30 PAs. He had 3 HRs in 249 PAs last season.

Check the water, check the balls, check the bats. That's waaaaaay off the bell curve.
Always frustrating when Yankees pluck some mostly washed pull-happy lefty out of the ether and watch him go off in the Bronx. Carpenter is 7-18 with 5 HRs in Yankee Stadium and 1-12 away. Likewise, Rizzo has a .631 OPS on the road and a .934 OPS at home. Doesn’t always work (Jay Bruce) but Carpenter and his plate discipline made for a good bet for them. Jose Trevino on the other hand I can’t explain.

Certain Sox righties benefit from the wall, of course, but it doesn’t as neatly translate to HRs.
 

trekfan55

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We've seen teams erase larger deficits in fewer remaining games than there are now, so it's not insurmountable. But it is definitely a very tall task that requires not just playing very well, but having the Yankees cool off considerably.

Absent playing out of their minds themselves since Opening Day, WC or bust was going to be the likely path regardless.
I know it's still too soon but the Yankees could go on a 2011 Red Sox dive. A man can wish.
 

Mystic Merlin

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I think the only hope is the Yankees lose in the post-sason.
Yeah, they could play .450 ball the rest of the way and still win 90 games. And 85 plus wins could realistically get a team a wild card spot in the AL this year, so using 90 wins as the target is a generous assumption for anyone hoping for the Yankees to miss the playoffs entirely.

To contextualize one just hope much rope the Yankees have bought themselves, the 2011 Red Sox were 42-27 in mid-June and finished playing…..48-45 ball. Incidentally, that team would have made the playoffs comfortably as the second wild card under the new format.

To cite another famous collapse, the 1995 Angels managed the play about .400 ball the final 56 games to drop out of the playoffs, but they too would comfortably have finished as the second wild card under the new format. And it’s a similar story with the 2007 Mets.

To miss out on the playoffs, the Yankees would have to undergo an unprecedented swing in W-L (and Pythag W-L) over an unprecedented in-season period. They aren’t going to become a sub-.450 team over 100 games, and it’s far from a given they would even need to play .450 ball to get into the playoffs.
 

Niastri

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If the Red Sox were in the other divisions, they'd be this far back...

AL Central 2.5
AL West 4.5
NL East 7.5
NL Central 2.0
NL West 4.5

Winning the NL East may be tough, but they'd have a decent shot at any of the others with nearly 4 months to go. It's just the Yankees making everything look worse. Somehow they have their magical pixie dust that makes washed up players superstars as soon as they're picked up. There was never a doubt that Matt Carpenter would hit like Barry Bonds as soon as they picked him up. If Rizzo went down they could sign Justin Morneau out of retirement and he'd hit 8 homers in his first month.
It's not their hitting, it's their pitching... Out of their top 8 guys in innings pitched this year, the worst WHIP of the group belongs to Cole at 1.07!
 

jon abbey

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Always frustrating when Yankees pluck some mostly washed pull-happy lefty out of the ether and watch him go off in the Bronx. Carpenter is 7-18 with 5 HRs in Yankee Stadium and 1-12 away.
Not saying your point is invalid, but specifically Csrpenter's six HRs would have been HRs in 30, 30, 30, 30, 26 and 25 parks respectively (I saw this last night, not sure where, probably somewhere on Yankee Reddit, sorry for no link). He is locked in like I have rarely seen a hitter despite his sporadic ABs, three more of his 24 ABs ended in very long fly balls that almost went out too.
 

jon abbey

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It's not their hitting, it's their pitching... Out of their top 8 guys in innings pitched this year, the worst WHIP of the group belongs to Cole at 1.07!
Honestly it is everything, their defensive efficiency is up from 24th last year to 2nd this year, but agreed that it all starts with the rotation, who have started all but two games so far.
 

NYCSox

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It's not their hitting, it's their pitching... Out of their top 8 guys in innings pitched this year, the worst WHIP of the group belongs to Cole at 1.07!
98 HRs hit and 48 HRs allowed overall (+50). Just at the launching pad 60 HRs hit but only 26 HRs allowed (+34). Something is just not adding up here. Why aren't opponents jacking the ball out there at something closer to their rate?
 

Ganthem

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Sounds like a case for the Scooby gang. I would have won a world series if it wasn't for you meddling Bostonians.
 

reggiecleveland

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In Bill James Historical Abstract (MAybe the 18986 version) he wrote how Yankee Stadium and Fenway park both created left-hand hitters that did better on the road too. While Yankee Stadium has a short porch, the power alley is deep, so to take advantage power guys start pulling the ball in the air, worked well everywhere, thus more HR. Roger Maris was his example. In Fenway LH hitters learn to take more pitches the other way to use the wall making them wait and see the ball better, they hot better on the road then too. (Lynn, Boggs were examples) I believe the article was explaining why Ken Phelps would not be a good fit in Yankee Stadium since he was a power alley, cf power hitter.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUwSxqnRW-8
 

effectivelywild

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Yeah, they could play .450 ball the rest of the way and still win 90 games. And 85 plus wins could realistically get a team a wild card spot in the AL this year, so using 90 wins as the target is a generous assumption for anyone hoping for the Yankees to miss the playoffs entirely.

To contextualize one just hope much rope the Yankees have bought themselves, the 2011 Red Sox were 42-27 in mid-June and finished playing…..48-45 ball. Incidentally, that team would have made the playoffs comfortably as the second wild card under the new format.

To cite another famous collapse, the 1995 Angels managed the play about .400 ball the final 56 games to drop out of the playoffs, but they too would comfortably have finished as the second wild card under the new format. And it’s a similar story with the 2007 Mets.

To miss out on the playoffs, the Yankees would have to undergo an unprecedented swing in W-L (and Pythag W-L) over an unprecedented in-season period. They aren’t going to become a sub-.450 team over 100 games, and it’s far from a given they would even need to play .450 ball to get into the playoffs.
For those ruing the Yanks scorching start, the inimitable Deadspin may have a salve.

"But you shouldn’t be that impressed by the Yankees winning in the regular season. It’s what they’ve done consistently since the year 2000. The problem is the postseason, where the Yankees have been ordinary to bad. Despite having won more games than any other team since 2000, they have won just one World Series in the time since...Their team never finishes the job anymore. The Yanks leave fans unfulfilled, wanting more year after year. Yes, the Yankees are MLB’s Green Bay Packers."
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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98 HRs hit and 48 HRs allowed overall (+50). Just at the launching pad 60 HRs hit but only 26 HRs allowed (+34). Something is just not adding up here. Why aren't opponents jacking the ball out there at something closer to their rate?
Because the Yankees have good pitchers, and a lot of power hitters?
 

Curtis Pride

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I mean who expected 1968 pitching performances from their entire staff top to bottom and stiffs like Trevino and Torres and corpses like Matt effing Carpenter hitting like this?
My theory is the Yankee Stadium sits on top a hellmouth, and the team is drawing energy from that. Damn Yankees!
 

JOBU

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Red Sox now have the second best run differential in the AL at +45 just ahead of TOR and Houston. Way behind the Yankees at +129. Would be nice if the standings correlated to that differential but I think we’ll all take their current position after that horrible start. Finishing in the top wild card spot should be well within their sights. Let the Yankees do their thing. Just make it to the playoffs and see what happens.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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Red Sox now have the second best run differential in the AL at +45 just ahead of TOR and Houston. Way behind the Yankees at +129. Would be nice if the standings correlated to that differential but I think we’ll all take their current position after that horrible start. Finishing in the top wild card spot should be well within their sights. Let the Yankees do their thing. Just make it to the playoffs and see what happens.
It might be time to break out a "How to STAY in this thing" thread. Eck was pushing hard for bullpen arms in the broadcast tonight and I can't blame him. At that moment, Trivino was pitching an effective frame and Eck thought he was someone to go after. I imagine Oakland doesn't want to sell low on him and will go up to the deadline with the hopes that he has some more good outings and his value goes up, and know perfectly well they'll likely get the same value then as they would today based on Triv's priors. Certainly someone I would have jumped at having in years past.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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When this thread started here were the AL standings:

52468

Red Sox were tied for 9th in the Wild Card race, ahead of only Kansas City and Detroit, and tied with the Orioles. 3rd WC team was Houston, who were 5 games ahead of Boston

Today's standings:

52469

Red Sox are now the 3rd WC team, just a 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland. The Sox are also just 2.5 games out of the 2nd WC position and 3.5 games out of the 1st WC position.

If they were in the Central Division, they'd only be 2 games out of the division lead. They would be 5 out in the West.
 

joe dokes

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When this thread started here were the AL standings:

View attachment 52468

Red Sox were tied for 9th in the Wild Card race, ahead of only Kansas City and Detroit, and tied with the Orioles. 3rd WC team was Houston, who were 5 games ahead of Boston

Today's standings:

View attachment 52469

Red Sox are now the 3rd WC team, just a 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland. The Sox are also just 2.5 games out of the 2nd WC position and 3.5 games out of the 1st WC position.

If they were in the Central Division, they'd only be 2 games out of the division lead. They would be 5 out in the West.
Toronto, playing at a .590 clip on both dates (96 wins---not too shabby), went from 2.5 back of NYY to 9 back.
 

BaseballJones

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When this thread started here were the AL standings:

View attachment 52468

Red Sox were tied for 9th in the Wild Card race, ahead of only Kansas City and Detroit, and tied with the Orioles. 3rd WC team was Houston, who were 5 games ahead of Boston

Today's standings:

View attachment 52469

Red Sox are now the 3rd WC team, just a 1/2 game ahead of Cleveland. The Sox are also just 2.5 games out of the 2nd WC position and 3.5 games out of the 1st WC position.

If they were in the Central Division, they'd only be 2 games out of the division lead. They would be 5 out in the West.
So the Yankee started off at an incredible .720 pace (18-7). Since then, they've not only not come back to earth, they've rocketed further into the stratosphere, playing at an unbelievable .750 pace (27-9). I mean...I'm sorry, but even if the Sox were playing at a 108 win pace (.667), they'd be at 41-21, which would still have them 4.5 games back.

Their deficit is all about the ridiculous start the Yankees have had this year. NY is on pace for 120 wins for crying out loud.
 

BaseballJones

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Presently, the Sox are 8 games out of first, behind two juggernauts (NY and Tor) and one other team that's really good (TB). It will take some incredible baseball for Boston to pass all three teams to win the division. But they can still get back in the race. If not the division (which is still possible; they have 137 games left, after all), then at least the wild card.

As of today, the Sox are 11th in the AL in runs, at 3.60 per game. They're 9th in ops. Last in stolen bases. 9th in total bases. We have started to see *some* signs of offensive improvement though. In 5 of their last 8 games they've scored 4 runs or more, which isn't saying much, but consider that before this stretch, in their prior 8 games they scored 4+ runs ONCE (4 in a game against TB). They've averaged 3.8 runs per game over their last 8, which again is poor, but it's better than what they have been doing. And in the last 3 games they've scored 5, 4, and 5 runs. So...baby steps.

Their overall pitching is just below average as well. Team ERA of 3.64 (league average is 3.61). Starters who have pitched 80% of their starts have done well; Pivetta has been miserable though. And the bullpen has been just awful lately.

So how can they get back into it?

1. Continued signs of life from the offense. Take pressure off the pitching staff. Keep scoring 4+ runs. They don't need to be the 27 Yankees but they do need to put up some runs. They've taken small steps forward in this way. Nice to see Story doing something.

2. Figure out Houck/Whitlock's best usage. These are two of the best pitchers on the staff. Figure out the optimal roles for them. I'm not sure what that is. I wonder if Pivetta went to the pen if his velocity, and thus his effectiveness, would play up. A rotation of Eovaldi, Wacha, Whitlock, Hill, and Houck - based on their performances so far - would give the Sox a good chance to be in every single game. And Pivetta might improve while in the pen.

3. Get SOMEONE to be a dominant, consistent, reliable reliever. Robles has been good until he hasn't. Others have flashed, but largely this bullpen has been inconsistent and it's killing them. Someone - preferably two guys - needs to step up in a major way. I have no idea who that would be though.

4. Stop with the "take effective starters out in the 5th" philosophy. You can do that when you have a quality bullpen. Right now the Sox do not have a quality bullpen. Their best pitchers are starters. They need to keep pitching as long as they can be effective. I'm not talking about asking them to throw 120 pitches, obviously. But they keep getting pulled way too early, IMO. That's fine if they're showing signs of being less effective, AND you have a quality bullpen behind them. But this team can't survive getting 4-5 innings out of their starters and asking their shaky, inconsistent bullpen pitch 4-5 innings (or more if it goes extras, which has happened a lot this year so far) in tight, high-stress games, especially given the struggles of the offense. If you're up 9-1 after 5, sure. But these games have been, for the most part, very tight.

5. Do some serious evaluation of the guys in the minors to see who can help. Pitchers, hitters, whomever. There has to be someone in AAA that can help the major league club.

So I would have as a team goal to get back to .500 by the end of May. That means they would need to go 15-9 the rest of the month (.625, which seems high but it's not that much over a small sample). Get to .500 by the end of May, then you've got 113 games from there to build into a winning team. Baseball really is a marathon, so you can get back into it over enough time.
Well, they're definitely back in it, being in the 3rd wild card slot right now, at 33-29.

Then:
- runs scored: 11th in the AL
- OPS: 9th in the AL
- total bases: 9th in the AL

Now:
- runs scored: 2nd in the AL
- OPS: 4th in the AL
- total bases: 2nd in the AL

I don't know that they've figured out the Whitlock situation, but Houck seems like he's doing great at the back end of the bullpen. His last 7 games pitched he's entered all of them in the 6th or later, finishing 3 of them, and has put up a 0.00 era, with a 1.08 whip and 9.0 k/9. Opponents have a .554 ops against him over this stretch. And Schreiber and Strahm have really done the job too.

Starters have gone way deeper into games, which has really helped the bullpen too.

Haven't gotten a ton of help from the minors, but Cordero hit in spots and now Duran is back up.

Good job Boston for not bailing on the season after a tough start. Just keep playing good baseball and somehow make it to October.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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So the Yankee started off at an incredible .720 pace (18-7). Since then, they've not only not come back to earth, they've rocketed further into the stratosphere, playing at an unbelievable .750 pace (27-9). I mean...I'm sorry, but even if the Sox were playing at a 108 win pace (.667), they'd be at 41-21, which would still have them 4.5 games back.

Their deficit is all about the ridiculous start the Yankees have had this year. NY is on pace for 120 wins for crying out loud.
Sox have been playing a 22-9 (arbitrary cut-off day for better results) since Mid May record for a .710 pace. Amazing but still would be losing ground if both teams played at the current pace the entire season. Nobody is catching the Yankees. In a great division too. Only hope is that they're the 2000 Mariners basically...
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well, they're definitely back in it, being in the 3rd wild card slot right now, at 33-29.

Then:
- runs scored: 11th in the AL
- OPS: 9th in the AL
- total bases: 9th in the AL

Now:
- runs scored: 2nd in the AL
- OPS: 4th in the AL
- total bases: 2nd in the AL

I don't know that they've figured out the Whitlock situation, but Houck seems like he's doing great at the back end of the bullpen. His last 7 games pitched he's entered all of them in the 6th or later, finishing 3 of them, and has put up a 0.00 era, with a 1.08 whip and 9.0 k/9. Opponents have a .554 ops against him over this stretch. And Schreiber and Strahm have really done the job too.

Starters have gone way deeper into games, which has really helped the bullpen too.

Haven't gotten a ton of help from the minors, but Cordero hit in spots and now Duran is back up.

Good job Boston for not bailing on the season after a tough start. Just keep playing good baseball and somehow make it to October.
Refsnyder has been fantastic in SSS.
 

Rovin Romine

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At this point the conversation should now shift to "How might they fall out of this thing?"

Clearly, it's to go on another losing jag. The possibility seems to be there with key players dinged (JD), underperforming (Story) or on the IL (Eovaldi, Whitlock) or all 3 (Hernandez).

But we've had some remarkable fill-in performances from Crawford and Refsnyder, while Pivetta has been dominant (with a blip.)

This next stretch of mitigating the loss of Eovaldi and Whitlock will be important. More so if they're out for extended periods of time, and/or the bullpen is heavily tasked in their absence. We have 11 games before we draw the Jays on June 27th (without, presumably, the well-choiced Houck and Crawford?)

At that point we play: @TOR (3), @chc (3), TBR (3), NYY (4), @TBR (4), @NYY (3), --ASB-- TOR (3), CLE (4). That's 24 of 27 against good competition.

Don't doze off just yet - these next 11 games matter. We might want that extra win before the meatgrinder.
 

joe dokes

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Good job Boston for not bailing on the season after a tough start. Just keep playing good baseball and somehow make it to October.
Who knows where things go from here, but it was 17 games over 2.5 shitty weeks (4/23 -5/11) that took them from 7-7 to 11-20. "Bailing" in response to that would have been something that I can't even think of a word for.
 

richgedman'sghost

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So the Yankee started off at an incredible .720 pace (18-7). Since then, they've not only not come back to earth, they've rocketed further into the stratosphere, playing at an unbelievable .750 pace (27-9). I mean...I'm sorry, but even if the Sox were playing at a 108 win pace (.667), they'd be at 41-21, which would still have them 4.5 games back.

Their deficit is all about the ridiculous start the Yankees have had this year. NY is on pace for 120 wins for crying out loud.
But but but.. the Red Sox lost the division when they had their worst start in 50 years at 11 and 19.. don't try to inject facts into the equation...LOL
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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How long is acceptable to you?
Sorry, don't mean to call you out specifically, and I understand that people want to pile on SJH for his early panic, but a month into our team's recovery, it's just getting kind of repetitive and boring.
 
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BornToRun

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It might be time to break out a "How to STAY in this thing" thread. Eck was pushing hard for bullpen arms in the broadcast tonight and I can't blame him. At that moment, Trivino was pitching an effective frame and Eck thought he was someone to go after. I imagine Oakland doesn't want to sell low on him and will go up to the deadline with the hopes that he has some more good outings and his value goes up, and know perfectly well they'll likely get the same value then as they would today based on Triv's priors. Certainly someone I would have jumped at having in years past.
I’m angling for a Daniel Bard reunion.
 

Bosoxian

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I think one issue will be the weakness of the other divisions. The Guardians will probably fall out soon, but the White Sox are going to get it in gear at some point, especially with Detroit and KC being a bunch of their games. We’ve got Baltimore, but how much better would their record be in the central or west?
 

simplicio

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Maybe when we have a bullpen that isn't doing its absolute damndest to throw away every game.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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13-4 in June. 26-12 since May 9. I can't see why we can't feel good about this team right now. A couple shaky outings against a good lineup, at least one of which was by a pitcher who may not be on the roster tomorrow, doesn't concern me that much.
 

InsideTheParker

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Honestly it is everything, their defensive efficiency is up from 24th last year to 2nd this year, but agreed that it all starts with the rotation, who have started all but two games so far.
I haven't followed your team much, except to wince at their success, so I was wondering: do you like Boone as a manager now?
 

jon abbey

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I haven't followed your team much, except to wince at their success, so I was wondering: do you like Boone as a manager now?
I am pretty sure they took away the part of his job where he makes in-game pitching changes this winter (they hired a third pitching coach who I believe decides those with Matt Blake, the primary pitching coach). So he has less responsibility now and is better at it, yes.
 

Manramsclan

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Sox are going to pass the Rays. But 3rd wild card is the best wild card......
Can you elaborate on this?
Do you mean that it would be better for the Red Sox to face the division winner with the worst record at home rather than face one of the Rays or Toronto? While I might be inclined to agree, the first wild card would face the second wild card at home. That seems like a much bigger advantage than seeing the division winner from the Central (assuming that this would be the division winner with the worst record as has been true in recent history).

Also, It's a bit silly to be projecting which wild card the Red Sox will be at this point in the season. Proximity to, and whether they are or not in a Wild Card spot is relevant as it relates to their ability to be in contention for the playoffs. Until we know what matchups are, however, proclaiming the 3rd spot the best is premature.