Celtics vs. Warriors, NBA Finals

Who you got?

  • Celtics in 4

    Votes: 6 1.5%
  • Celtics in 5

    Votes: 18 4.6%
  • Celtics in 6

    Votes: 146 37.2%
  • Celtics in 7

    Votes: 127 32.4%
  • Warriors in 4

    Votes: 1 0.3%
  • Warriors in 5

    Votes: 23 5.9%
  • Warriors in 6

    Votes: 56 14.3%
  • Warriors in 7

    Votes: 15 3.8%

  • Total voters
    392
  • Poll closed .

Just a bit outside

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This series could be quick if Draymond doesn’t play better. He played way off Al on defense and gave up a lot of open looks. Don’t know if that is on him or the coaching staff. He also didn’t force many turnovers on that side. On the offensive side he was terrible even for him. Couldn’t shoot but shot more than usual. Also contributed mightily to the Celtics run in the fourth quarter bricking a 3, missing two free throws, and turning it over twice, once on a lazy pass and the other on a dumb foul when he grabbed Tatum.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, a big problem here is that, pre-series, people were making a big deal about how much their off-ball movement would challenge the Celtics, and how GSW would react if that were shut off. The Celtics shut it off, and it's a problem.

Had the Celtics lost, I think they'd be looking at their miscommunications that let Steph free and the 3rd quarter offensive rebounds, and they'd be confident they could fix it going forward.

For GSW...man, I don't know. Maybe more zone, maybe wait for the Celtics to regress from 3.....Draymond recognizes that the options aren't great.

It's early, and I won't be triumphalist after one game. I remember 2019 Boston-Milwaukee. However, I will say that "changing of the guard" series often look like this.
I agreed with all of this pre-series on how it is the Celtics who control this series either here, the gambling thread or Twitter……I forget where I was lol. The only difference was that I expected the adjustments to come AFTER Game 1 but they were so simple and easily executed that it worked in-game. This does not bode well for the Warriors over a long series…..or really even in Game 2.

The Celtics can beat the Celtics……the Warriors cannot. Hopefully we learned from Miami’s Game 6 about what happens when we take our foot off the gas and can smell the finish line from here. This may not be a very long series if they can.
 

lovegtm

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I agreed with all of this pre-series on how it is the Celtics who control this series either here, the gambling thread or Twitter……I forget where I was lol. The only difference was that I expected the adjustments to come AFTER Game 1 but they were so simple and easily executed that it worked in-game. This does not bode well for the Warriors over a long series…..or really even in Game 2.

The Celtics can beat the Celtics……the Warriors cannot. Hopefully we learned from Miami’s Game 6 about what happens when we take our foot off the gas and can smell the finish line from here. This may not be a very long series if they can.
I sign off on all of this, including the danger of letting the foot off the gas. One thing working in their favor is that they're no longer playing teams that bring 2x4s to the game and whack you for 48 minutes. That attrition itself causes lack of focus.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Because Dray was getting dragged by KD on Twitter about Steph/Finals MVPs.

Everyone realizes Curry is a transformative player that changed the NBA. Steph will go down as one of the dozen greatest NBA players ever.
It's funny, I listened to Draymond's podcast that spurred KD's reaction and Dray was extremely complimentary of KD, as a player and person, to the extent that I wondered if the beef between them was mostly exaggerated or at least water under the bridge, but of course KD being KD, he proceeds to hone in on the one potential slight, in which Dray was clearly trying to pump up Steph and dismiss the "he needs a Finals MVP!" takes, rather than drag on KD at all. He is just so incredibly thin skinned. I kinda love it. At least it's authentic.

Probably doesn't need to be said here, but Dray's podcast is great, btw. I'd say he's a rising media star, but it's the #1 hoops podcast, so he's mostly already there.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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The Celtics can beat the Celtics……the Warriors cannot. Hopefully we learned from Miami’s Game 6 about what happens when we take our foot off the gas and can smell the finish line from here. This may not be a very long series if they can.
That seems like the big risk here. The volatility of performance and focus that the Celtics showed against the Bucks and the Heat have to make you wonder which team shows up for the next couple of games. They had several great chance to put themselves in commanding positions in those series and couldn't do it. Hopefully, they've learned their lesson, and more rest helps too.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Earlier in the playoffs, someone had a start showing that Tatum shot lights out from three in two situations: catch and shoot (which he gets less of these days), and 7 or more dribbles before the shot (which is usually a favorable iso where Tatum can set up the shot just how he wants it) but he struggled with threes of 1 to 6 dribbles, which include dribbling around picks, stepbacks, etc.
 

radsoxfan

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Agree w the exception of Wiggins. I think he’ll be a problem all series
He might be, certainly has the potential to be. But based on many of the advanced metrics he's very.... meh. All the Warriors are aside from Steph and Draymond. And even those 2 are only above average on one side of the ball (though admittedly, WAY above average on their preferred side).

The rest of the Warriors roster has a better general reputation than many of the advanced stats give them. Who is correct? I suppose that's up for debate.

But that's the reason for the big Delta between the public betting lines and the advanced metrics predictions for this season.

Smart, Horford, Rob, White >>> Klay, Wiggins, Poole, Looney
 

Sam Ray Not

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2 of those losses were without Durant and Klay in the Raptors series, 1 of them was the Draymond suspension game against Cleveland…

I just don’t think this means much other than the healthy Warriors with KD were completely unfair and destroyed competition in the NBA for 2 years
Yep. Just to nip any "Curry needed KD more than vice versa" memes in the bud:

Playoffs
Durant + Curry 38-10 (.792)
Durant w/o Curry 57-50 (.533)
Curry w/o Durant 51-30 (.638)

Finals
Durant + Curry 9-1 (.900)
Durant w/o Curry 1-4 (.200)
Curry w/o Durant 8-12 (.400) *9-12 if you count the game where KD played 11 minutes before blowing his Achilles

Curry v. Durant playoffs head to head 4-3 (.571)

Steph's been a total stud in the playoffs without KD, especially in the WCF, where he's now 16-5 (4-0 in series) without him. And he's been a stud in 4 of his 5 Finals appearances (and off to a pretty good start in this one), with the one exception being the year where he rushed back from a Grade II MCL strain. He's still the most efficient high-volume scorer in NBA playoff history, with a higher career playoff and Finals scoring average than Bird, Kareem, Kobe, Magic, among others.

Turns out the NBA Finals — whether you're dealing with peak LeBron, peak Kawhi (without your top two teammates, as you note), or these beastly Celtics — are hard.

Anyway, for my own sanity I've been making myself scarce and trying to stay away from too much Finals discussion, but as long as I'm in here, I did want to give massive props to the Cs for an incredibly ballsy and resilient effort in Game One. Ws had them on the ropes 87-72 late in third with a Curry three to put them up 18 ... and the Cs took that punch and threw an epic haymaker back at them. Amazing show.

Onto Game 2. Historically, teams who have lost Finals Game One at home are 0-5 in championships after losing Game Two and 9-3 after winning it, so needless to say, this one is huge.
 

DGreenwood

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Yep. Just to nip any "Curry needed KD more than vice versa" memes in the bud:

Playoffs
Durant + Curry 38-10 (.792)
Durant w/o Curry 57-50 (.533)
Curry w/o Durant 51-30 (.638)

Finals
Durant + Curry 9-1 (.900)
Durant w/o Curry 1-4 (.200)
Curry w/o Durant 8-12 (.400) *9-12 if you count the game where KD played 11 minutes before blowing his Achilles

Curry v. Durant playoffs head to head 4-3 (.571)

Steph's been a total stud in the playoffs without KD, especially in the WCF, where he's now 16-5 (4-0 in series) without him. And he's been a stud in 4 of his 5 Finals appearances (and off to a pretty good start in this one), with the one exception being the year where he rushed back from a Grade II MCL strain. He's still the most efficient high-volume scorer in NBA playoff history, with a higher career playoff and Finals scoring average than Bird, Kareem, Kobe, Magic, among others.

Turns out the NBA Finals — whether you're dealing with peak LeBron, peak Kawhi (without your top two teammates, as you note), or these beastly Celtics — are hard.

Anyway, for my own sanity I've been making myself scarce and trying to stay away from too much Finals discussion, but as long as I'm in here, I did want to give massive props to the Cs for an incredibly ballsy and resilient effort in Game One. Ws had them on the ropes 87-72 late in third with a Curry three to put them up 18 ... and the Cs took that punch and threw an epic haymaker back at them. Amazing show.

Onto Game 2. Historically, teams who have lost Finals Game One at home are 0-5 in championships after losing Game Two and 9-3 after winning it, so needless to say, this one is huge.
I just want to go on record that I'm glad you showed up, I was hoping you would. It's good to get things from the perspective of a well informed Warriors fan as the series plays out.
 

benhogan

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It's funny, I listened to Draymond's podcast that spurred KD's reaction and Dray was extremely complimentary of KD, as a player and person, to the extent that I wondered if the beef between them was mostly exaggerated or at least water under the bridge, but of course KD being KD, he proceeds to hone in on the one potential slight, in which Dray was clearly trying to pump up Steph and dismiss the "he needs a Finals MVP!" takes, rather than drag on KD at all. He is just so incredibly thin skinned. I kinda love it. At least it's authentic.

Probably doesn't need to be said here, but Dray's podcast is great, btw. I'd say he's a rising media star, but it's the #1 hoops podcast, so he's mostly already there.
Agreed. Here are Dray's thoughts today post Game 1.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY8Jwyrsb30
 

mwonow

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Agreed. Here are Dray's thoughts today post Game 1.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eY8Jwyrsb30
I had never heard him before. Green is really great at this, eh? And or, do you think he wants to coach when he's done playing? He seems to have terrific insight into the game.

Off topic: "Sometimes some of those things that you walk away with aren't quite what the film shows." Musicians tend to hear the flip side, "Tape doesn't lie."
 

DGreenwood

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I've been listening the Draymond Green podcast for a couple of months and I like it. I started listing because he's a JT fan after spending time with him at the Olympics and the show where he had Bradley Beal on had a lot of JT talk. But now I listen to just about all of his shows regardless of topic. He gives some honest opinions you don't usually here from active players.
 

InstaFace

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Anyway, for my own sanity I've been making myself scarce and trying to stay away from too much Finals discussion, but as long as I'm in here...
Just wanted to agree with others that as far as I'm concerned this is an SRN-friendly space, I appreciate your commentary, and nobody better give you any crap (unless it's exceptionally funny).
 

CoffeeNerdness

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Any word on Steph's ankle? Didn't look terrible but you never know what might keep barking at ya when you're 34.
 

RorschachsMask

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I’m curious if the Warriors will keep playing box-and-one on Tatum, because his decision making will lead to endless open threes for everyone else. It’s kind of a gimmick defense, which is why you barely see it in the nba.

If I’m GS, I’d try Wiggins on Tatum with some light help, at least early in games. But coaches obviously know infinitely better than me lol.

Also, this defense, sheesh.

View: https://twitter.com/John_Karalis/status/1532852652584841216?s=20&t=M0BSYHfrtmsWC8nB1CCHOw
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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I always felt like the ‘08 run was aided by having to go through LeBron basically entering his peak and a Detroit team that still had the goods and played their asses off (with championship pedigree), not to mention a really feisty ATL team.

There is a balance in terms of being fatigued, injured, etc, but there’s no substitute for that kind of experience when you are then coming up against a team who is GREAT and are bonafide champs but play a game that is not quite as grind-you-into-dust tough as Milwaukee/Miami. The Big Three were plenty experienced but very very light on relevant playoff experience, but by the time they got to LA they were well-tested.

I look at this Celtics team in a similar way, though most of these guys have played in a bunch of ECF games. And GS is much different than that LA team, which was practically 4 deep (and GS has a bigger overall title pedigree). But in terms of the Celtics I think they are A) farther along than a lot of first time finals teams and B) have gotten a lot of seasoning this spring.
 
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Jed Zeppelin

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I’m curious if the Warriors will keep playing box-and-one on Tatum, because his decision making will lead to endless open threes for everyone else. It’s kind of a gimmick defense, which is why you barely see it in the nba.

If I’m GS, I’d try Wiggins on Tatum with some light help, at least early in games. But coaches obviously know infinitely better than me lol.

Also, this defense, sheesh.

View: https://twitter.com/John_Karalis/status/1532852652584841216?s=20&t=M0BSYHfrtmsWC8nB1CCHOw
It’s not to say that Payton Pritchard should defend Steph Curry, but he is absolutely capable of playing within the Celtics defense and staying in front of Steph Curry to a degree that won’t embarrass himself or the team.

Young, scrappy, hungry, etc etc and provides a lot more on the defensive end than Kemba when last seen, and Schroeder as well. Effort counts for a lot when all the athletes are world class, and sometimes counts for more when you aren’t a world class athlete.

Kudos to these role players for being ready for the matchups that best suit their talents.
 

slamminsammya

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I’m curious if the Warriors will keep playing box-and-one on Tatum, because his decision making will lead to endless open threes for everyone else. It’s kind of a gimmick defense, which is why you barely see it in the nba.

If I’m GS, I’d try Wiggins on Tatum with some light help, at least early in games. But coaches obviously know infinitely better than me lol.

Also, this defense, sheesh.

View: https://twitter.com/John_Karalis/status/1532852652584841216?s=20&t=M0BSYHfrtmsWC8nB1CCHOw
That was a possession where the Warriors made it easy - two iso's with zero movement otherwise. I thought there were some possessions where the Dubs had the Celtics in rotation and were swinging the ball around but couldn't get anything that were extremely impressive. The rotations were at times absolutely perfect.
 

bosockboy

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I always felt like the ‘08 run was aided by having to go through LeBron basically entering his peak and a Detroit team that still had the goods and played their asses off (with championship pedigree), not to mention a really feisty ATL team.

There is a balance in terms of being fatigued, injured, etc, but there’s no substitute for that kind of experience when you are then coming up against a team who is GREAT and are bonafide champs but play a game that is not quite as grind-you-into-dust tough as Milwaukee/Miami. The Big Three were plenty experienced but very very light on relevant playoff experience, but by the time they got to LA they were well-tested.

I look at this Celtics team in a similar way, though most of these guys have played in a bunch of ECF games. And GS is much different than that LA team, which was practically 4 deep (and GS has a bigger overall title pedigree). But in terms of the Celtics I think they are A) farther along than a lot of first time finals teams and B) have gotten a lot of seasoning this spring.
I think clearing the East released their demons and they are bull in a china shop now.
 

benhogan

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I had never heard him before. Green is really great at this, eh? And or, do you think he wants to coach when he's done playing? He seems to have terrific insight into the game.

Off topic: "Sometimes some of those things that you walk away with aren't quite what the film shows." Musicians tend to hear the flip side, "Tape doesn't lie."
I see Dray going right into the TNT studio. Coaching is real work

Shaq/Charles basically have about 5 national spokesman gigs and take more down per year than their playing days.
 

lovegtm

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I see Dray going right into the TNT studio. Coaching is real work

Shaq/Charles basically have about 5 national spokesman gigs and take more down per year than their playing days.
Dray is much, much harder working than those guys. He's out here producing content in real-time, while prepping for an intense Finals, and clearly trying to build his own media property rather than just sliding into an existing one. (Side note: has any player done anything like this, as the games are going? Feels unprecedented and cool.)

People with that kind of personality/work obsession don't just stop being like that. When he retires, he'll have an 8 hour/day+ hole in his life that playing and prep and working out used to take up, and I doubt he'll be satisfied until he fills it. Now, he may channel it into media rather than coaching, but I think there is a ~0% chance that Draymond is satisfied to just hang out on TNT and listen to Chuck say dumb shit a few days a week.
 

lovegtm

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Rewatching the 3rd quarter now. One funny note is that, whenever Mark Jones said Steph was "taking ankles" during the game, it was a just a basic bitch obvious pushoff.

Initial takeaways:
  • Really, really needed better lineup choices. 2bigz was fine to start the quarter, once they made the adjustments in how to handle Curry PnRs. However, this just isn't a Grant series. GS is too mobile on defense, so he's not able to punish a less mobile big, and the same issues exist on the other end. PP would be a way better choice to play heavy minutes, on both ends.
  • The bad lineups trickled down--a lot of the offensive rebounds were the result of lower energy on defense as a result of getting compromised in various ways. It was partly an attention to detail thing, but also the defensive intensity wasn't there.
  • Most bounces and shot luck went GS's way, in a way that wasn't sustainable, but wouldn't have been enough to fuel a run on its own.
  • Lots of missed passes in the lane as GS collapsed; have to imagine film will help here
  • Almost none of GS's offense was generated via offball movement, which is very promising
  • The Celtics generate advantages in the halfcourt on offense, which means they don't need transition as much, which means they should be sending more guys to the defensive glass.
I think the main thing the Celtics will take from that quarter, aside from attention to detail in Steph coverages and crashing back to rebound, is that there will be extremely positive trickle-down effect from playing DWhite and PP more, that those smaller lineups are very sustainable on defense, and that they make offense a lot easier for the stars and bigs. If Grant is the first guy off the bench, I will break my TV in anger, and I'm a Grant fan to some degree.

Had the Celtics lost, I think they'd be extremely confident going forward, but it's always much better to bank a win than bank a loss, obviously.
 

benhogan

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Rewatching the 3rd quarter now. One funny note is that, whenever Mark Jones said Steph was "taking ankles" during the game, it was a just a basic bitch obvious pushoff.

Initial takeaways:
  • Really, really needed better lineup choices. 2bigz was fine to start the quarter, once they made the adjustments in how to handle Curry PnRs. However, this just isn't a Grant series. GS is too mobile on defense, so he's not able to punish a less mobile big, and the same issues exist on the other end. PP would be a way better choice to play heavy minutes, on both ends.
  • The bad lineups trickled down--a lot of the offensive rebounds were the result of lower energy on defense as a result of getting compromised in various ways. It was partly an attention to detail thing, but also the defensive intensity wasn't there.
  • Most bounces and shot luck went GS's way, in a way that wasn't sustainable, but wouldn't have been enough to fuel a run on its own.
  • Lots of missed passes in the lane as GS collapsed; have to imagine film will help here
  • Almost none of GS's offense was generated via offball movement, which is very promising
  • The Celtics generate advantages in the halfcourt on offense, which means they don't need transition as much, which means they should be sending more guys to the defensive glass.
I think the main thing the Celtics will take from that quarter, aside from attention to detail in Steph coverages and crashing back to rebound, is that there will be extremely positive trickle-down effect from playing DWhite and PP more, that those smaller lineups are very sustainable on defense, and that they make offense a lot easier for the stars and bigs. If Grant is the first guy off the bench, I will break my TV in anger, and I'm a Grant fan to some degree.

Had the Celtics lost, I think they'd be extremely confident going forward, but it's always much better to bank a win than bank a loss, obviously.
I'm 110% on Grant playing very limited minutes in this series with those going to PP.
With role players, it's always about matchups and I really don't see a good matchup for Grant here. Looney and Dray could ruin Grant on the boards. Of course, I hope we're wrong and we get a CornerOffice 3pt explosion in a game

I'm not all that worried about the Warriors hunting Payton. If Iguodala backs downs PP with a turnaround midrange jumper that's a huge win. PP is a much better option (than GW) to chase around Steph/Poole/Klay on the perimeter. On offense, his ball-handling, transition offense and 3pt shooting are needed.

White also needs to be playing 38-40mpg (not sure that's even possible by not starting?). Derrick's length, agility & motor is our best foil to Steph. I do like the idea of Smart being physical with Steph for a chunk of the game and then DW blanketing him.

Not sure IME has the guts to start White over TimeLord but that's what I'd like to see with PP rotating in for Marcus/White. That may be too outlandish and too drastic an approach but that's my gut instinct after rewatching the game myself
 
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lovegtm

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I'm 110% on Grant playing very limited minutes in this series with those going to PP.
With role players, it's always about matchups and I really don't see a good matchup for Grant here. Looney and Dray could ruin Grant on the boards. Of course, I hope we're wrong and we get a CornerOffice 3pt explosion in a game

I'm not all that worried about the Warriors hunting Payton. If Iguodala backs downs PP with a turnaround midrange jumper that's a huge win. PP is a much better option (than GW) to chase around Steph/Poole/Klay on the perimeter. On offense, his ball-handling, transition offense and 3pt shooting are needed.

White also needs to be playing 38-40mpg (not sure that's even possible by not starting?). Derrick's length, agility & motor is our best foil to Steph. I do like the idea of Smart being physical with Steph for a chunk of the game and then DW blanketing him.

Not sure IME has the guts to start White over TimeLord but that's what I'd like to see with PP rotating in for Marcus/White. That may be too outlandish and too drastic an approach but that's my gut instinct after rewatching the game myself
I think that, when they look at film, they will be happy enough with what they see in Al+TL minutes that, with some adjustments, they'll want to play them together some just to maximize talent on the floor.

If TL plays 20 minutes and Al plays 38, that makes 10 minutes where they'd be together, so the start of the 1st and 3rd quarters. They could then go to the White sub 4-5 minutes in.

That's what I think they will do. What do I think they should do? Match White's minutes with Steph's. We'll see how much Ime is down to tinker, and it's also possible that I'm just plain wrong about what to do.
 

chilidawg

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The starters (2 Bigz) were -6 in their 1st Q run and -9 in the 3rd. They did have a better stretch in the middle of the 2nd where they were +5, but Ime went with White over TL to close the half. If the poor starts continue I'd expect a shift to White starting, but I'd guess Ime goes with what got them here for a while.
 

lovegtm

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The starters (2 Bigz) were -6 in their 1st Q run and -9 in the 3rd. They did have a better stretch in the middle of the 2nd where they were +5, but Ime went with White over TL to close the half. If the poor starts continue I'd expect a shift to White starting, but I'd guess Ime goes with what got them here for a while.
I'm guessing they will conclude that the things that led to that -6 and -9 are fixable rather than systemic, and roll with the starters again.
 

benhogan

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They did get better about double switching Horford/TL, Al on the perimeter with Rob staying near the rim (highlighted below).

My guess is they will lean towards "fixable", IME can probably adjust to weaponize it :)

On another note, I hope IME can keep his staff, they have made clever adjustments all season long

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNZ-sYAkdxI
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Theoretically, playing double bigs helps with defensive rebounding and rim protection, and limits the desire/need for drop coverage, allowing more perimeter pressure. I like sending length at Curry. Push him further out Or make him drive/dish. Get it in his head that if the defender is within even 3-4 feet, his shot might get swatted. TL blocked one of his 3s in the third quarter that likely left an impression on Steph. If you can get to that point, you’re playing winning D…
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm guessing they will conclude that the things that led to that -6 and -9 are fixable rather than systemic, and roll with the starters again.
I don’t know how fixable it is for Horford and TL to be switching 25-30 feet from the basket but that would seem to open up a lot of wholes in our defense. I didn’t like it against Miami and I’m downright cringing at the thought of it against this team.
 

snowmanny

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Theoretically, playing double bigs helps with defensive rebounding and rim protection, and limits the desire/need for drop coverage, allowing more perimeter pressure. I like sending length at Curry. Push him further out Or make him drive/dish. Get it in his head that if the defender is within even 3-4 feet, his shot might get swatted. TL blocked one of his 3s in the third quarter that likely left an impression on Steph. If you can get to that point, you’re playing winning D…
Apropos of that, during that 17-0 run Steph went up for a three and then realized he had two C’s in his face (edit 36&42) and was forced to pass off the ball and nearly broke his ankle in the process.
 
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lovegtm

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I don’t know how fixable it is for Horford and TL to be switching 25-30 feet from the basket but that would seem to open up a lot of wholes in our defense. I didn’t like it against Miami and I’m downright cringing at the thought of it against this team.
From your lips to god's ears. Just saying that I think they'll convince themselves they can make it work by doing that switching up high and rotating behind it, probably with Horford preswitches.
 

LaszloKovacks

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  • The bad lineups trickled down--a lot of the offensive rebounds were the result of lower energy on defense as a result of getting compromised in various ways. It was partly an attention to detail thing, but also the defensive intensity wasn't there.
  • Most bounces and shot luck went GS's way, in a way that wasn't sustainable, but wouldn't have been enough to fuel a run on its own.
Haralabos Voulgaris brought up an interesting point regarding this on the latest Bill Simmons podcast. He said that this happens more often for GS not because of skill or luck in offensive rebounding, but because their perimeter players have such high gravity in comparison to their front court, that defenders are frequently left on an island with Steph, Klay or Poole and out of position for the rebound. Now you can probably say that about a lot of teams, but the gulf between the GS perimeter players and front court on offense is enormous and making this more pronounced.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Haralabos Voulgaris brought up an interesting point regarding this on the latest Bill Simmons podcast. He said that this happens more often for GS not because of skill or luck in offensive rebounding, but because their perimeter players have such high gravity in comparison to their front court, that defenders are frequently left on an island with Steph, Klay or Poole and out of position for the rebound. Now you can probably say that about a lot of teams, but the gulf between the GS perimeter players and front court on offense is enormous and making this more pronounced.
Yeah, I figured their o-rebounding prowess in spite of their relative size was a function of high gravity plus their ball movement which leaves defenses scrambling- guys moving away from the basket, late to turn their heads around and off balance. Tough to find a body and proper leverage to box out in these scenarios.
 

InstaFace

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I look at this Celtics team in a similar way, though most of these guys have played in a bunch of ECF games. And GS is much different than that LA team, which was practically 4 deep (and GS has a bigger overall title pedigree). But in terms of the Celtics I think they are A) farther along than a lot of first time finals teams and B) have gotten a lot of seasoning this spring.
We even got the massive road comeback win out of the way early, it took the '08 team till G4 of the Finals.
 

TrapperAB

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Two random observations, one about one of theirs, one about one of ours:

Theirs: Not only does Klay Thompson look like a diminished version of himself (a step slow, lateral movement isn’t great), but he also looks like his long layoff has caught up to him. Saw him bent at the waist holding onto his shorts a lot — the universal sign that a player is sucking wind — when he hadn’t been on the court for very long. Have to wonder if the grind since his return in January has him worn down. Sure, he could catch-and-shoot us to death, and flip a game just with the three, but I’m much less worried about him now (at least until it is once again proven I’m an idiot).

Ours: I think the Heat/Spo exposed how to neutralize Grant Williams. When he’s in the corner office, a defender can keep him from shooting the three with a quick close out to get close to him. Grant keeps bringing the ball up to shoot, but instead of releasing, he’s bringing it back down, making a few ill-advised dribbles towards the lane and then passing it back out. A defender doesn’t have to get particularly close to Grant to change his mind about shooting — just be in the neighborhood. Off-season project for Grant: quicker release and/or work on shooting over closer defenders.
 

Justthetippett

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Two random observations, one about one of theirs, one about one of ours:

Theirs: Not only does Klay Thompson look like a diminished version of himself (a step slow, lateral movement isn’t great), but he also looks like his long layoff has caught up to him. Saw him bent at the waist holding onto his shorts a lot — the universal sign that a player is sucking wind — when he hadn’t been on the court for very long. Have to wonder if the grind since his return in January has him worn down. Sure, he could catch-and-shoot us to death, and flip a game just with the three, but I’m much less worried about him now (at least until it is once again proven I’m an idiot).

Ours: I think the Heat/Spo exposed how to neutralize Grant Williams. When he’s in the corner office, a defender can keep him from shooting the three with a quick close out to get close to him. Grant keeps bringing the ball up to shoot, but instead of releasing, he’s bringing it back down, making a few ill-advised dribbles towards the lane and then passing it back out. A defender doesn’t have to get particularly close to Grant to change his mind about shooting — just be in the neighborhood. Off-season project for Grant: quicker release and/or work on shooting over closer defenders.
Grant seems to have lost confidence. Even with his current release those shots are available. I wonder if the physical beating he took against Giannis and to a lesser extent against Bam and Butler has him a little off.

(BTW, I agree with you in his summer project.)
 

the moops

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Grant seems to have lost confidence. Even with his current release those shots are available. I wonder if the physical beating he took against Giannis and to a lesser extent against Bam and Butler has him a little off.

(BTW, I agree with you in his summer project.)
Agree here. He has a decently quick release too. He definitely can get a lot of those shots off, but like you said, he decides to pump fake and go. Something to work on for him this off-season is the catch and shoot quickly. He may get a few blocked, but thats fine if he is gonna get up a couple more a game
 

slamminsammya

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I disagree with yall. Grant should learn to better take advantage of the pump fake. Get more confident in his ball handling and making the right pass when penetrating off a closeout would be great for him and the team. I think he has already had some good ones this playoffs.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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He could also learn to pump fake into a foul. Or, to stick with the Butler/Giannis comp, pump fake and hit the close out guy in the mouth while shooting, drawing the foul.
 

TrapperAB

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I disagree with yall. Grant should learn to better take advantage of the pump fake. Get more confident in his ball handling and making the right pass when penetrating off a closeout would be great for him and the team. I think he has already had some good ones this playoffs.
Sure would be interesting to see how he can develop in that area. I’m not particularly optimistic, given how often he struggles near the basket when he puts the ball on the floor, and how clumsy he can look on those baseline drives, but if he could drive into space off a close out, disrupt the defense, and dish to open cutters or shooters, that would be a massive boon to the offense. I’m sure he’ll put in the work, so I guess maybe I’m cautiously pessimistic?
 
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TrapperAB

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Grant seems to have lost confidence. Even with his current release those shots are available. I wonder if the physical beating he took against Giannis and to a lesser extent against Bam and Butler has him a little off.

(BTW, I agree with you in his summer project.)
Interesting — he certainly did take a beating. I just felt like he had more space against Milwaukee, and the scramble close-outs by Miami were noticeable — and effective. It was like the Heat coaching staff had identified that Grant brings the ball down if there’s a player running at him, told defenders to do that, so whenever Granite got it in the corner, the light bulb went off — “Coach said to run at him at full speed!”

The one shot I remember him taking in Game 1 was a wing three — very low percentage for him. It’s like he wanted to take a three, but was getting uncomfortable trying to get them off in the corner.
 

TrapperAB

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