Red Sox in season discussion

2023...

- Different catcher hopefully
- Casas at 1b
- Bello, Winckowski, and Seabold in the rotation (or 2 of the 3)
- Walter in the bullpen (if you don't know who I'm talking about, check him out on soxprospects.com)

So who knows. But some interesting pieces for the future. And I'm pretty sure if the Sox were to trade X or JD or even Eovaldi, they could get a ton back for it. They'd be in full rebuilding mode at that point, but maybe that's not such an awful thing. I don't think it would take too long for them to get back to being good with all the talent they have and could add via trade.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

Expecting to compete in 2023 looks problematic to me (although people will remind me I’ve been saying that for months). The biggest need is major league ready players…can they get those with the assets they have to deal? 1b and cf seem like the two positions they can potentially fill form within for next year, so it would be good to see they have in Casas and Duran sooner rather than later. The risk there, though, is what if they stink? What then?

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Great question. That's why I think you need to call them up and then sink or swim with them. Just let them develop and take your lumps if they stink. Go that route and commit to it, regardless of how many angry posts show up on SOSH.

Regarding Casas: the sample sizes are obviously small, but it may be worth pointing out that he's hitting much better at the launching pad that is Polar Park. He's got a home OPS of 1.058 compared to a road OPS of .741.

Worcester as a team is leading the IL in home OPS by a whole lot (nearly .100 points) at .956. In comparison, Worcester is in the bottom third of the league in road OPS at .696.

Casas would probably contribute more than Dalbec at this point, but our expectations should probably be tempered. He's young and has not had much seasoning.

TheYellowDart5 said:

Again: not the point. Hill and Wacha are illustrative of a particular roster-building approach that Bloom took: avoiding expensive long-term deals with top-tier free agents and choosing instead to sign cheaper, middle/lower-tier free agents to short contracts (again, with Story as the exception because of circumstances and context that made him available and acceptably priced). That those two deals have so far worked out — which, hey, that's good — doesn't change what they are or the thinking behind them, and my argument is that the thinking behind them is part of the problem. I mean, that's presumably the same strategy behind signing Robles and Diekman and Strahm, and it's hard to argue they were good choices.

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Strahm has a 2.70 ERA, 1.87 FIP and a 0.800 WHIP in 13 appearances. He's been fine. The other two have been up and down but the sample is small enough that the bad is outweighing the good overall.

I guess the counter question is what is the right approach that could (should?) have been employed instead? Signing higher profile, more expensive relievers to longer contracts? Reliever effectiveness is so volatile, I'm not sure there's a strong case to be made for either strategy being superior as a way to have a stellar bullpen. But if you're going to make mistakes and sign ineffective guys, better to err on the side of cheap/short contracts, no? I get that's less exciting, but I don't think it's a bad idea.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

Expecting to compete in 2023 looks problematic to me (although people will remind me I’ve been saying that for months). The biggest need is major league ready players…can they get those with the assets they have to deal? 1b and cf seem like the two positions they can potentially fill form within for next year, so it would be good to see they have in Casas and Duran sooner rather than later. The risk there, though, is what if they stink? What then?

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Duran is 25. At some point they need to give him an honest chance to see if he sucks or not.

Overall though, letting them perform should show us whether the front office needs to target those positions through free agency or trades. Rizzo got $32M over two years, it's not like it will take a gigantic investment to get a major league first baseman.

I don't think the Casas/Dalbec 'will they won't they' drama will play out for much longer. Bobby Dalbec as a full-timer in the humidor era isn't gonna work. I would give him a shot as a potential lefty masher on the weak side of a platoon though.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

Expecting to compete in 2023 looks problematic to me (although people will remind me I’ve been saying that for months). The biggest need is major league ready players…can they get those with the assets they have to deal? 1b and cf seem like the two positions they can potentially fill form within for next year, so it would be good to see they have in Casas and Duran sooner rather than later. The risk there, though, is what if they stink? What then?

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They also have money to spend, which I guess technically falls under assets. If they stink or the team stinks next year, they should fire Chaim and look for his replacement.

I'm not sure what else one can do in your scenario where everything goes wrong. If they suck, you move on from them and look for players who don't suck? If they are good, you look to fill other positions with solid to all star players.

John Marzano Olympic Hero said:

For obvious reasons, the 2020 season was unlike anything that we've experienced before. But going into the year, no one thought that a. the pandemic was going to ravage the world and b. MLB would lose half of its season. I'm obviously not holding that against him. But, looking at that lineup (aside from second base), it's really not that bad (aside from the obvious giant Betts-sized hole): Vazquez, Moreland, Bogaerts, Devers, Benintendi, Bradley, Verdugo, Martinez plus a second baseman should have been able to bring in some runs. Pitching is where there was a weakness. From what I remember, the early spring scuttlebut was that they'd hit and win a bunch of games 8-7, 9-6, etc. You add a couple arms to that bullpen or staff, I'm not saying that they'd win the Series, but they'd certainly finish better than they did that year.

Even if it was a "punt year", I doubt anyone thought they'd end up with the fourth worst record in the league.

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To the bolded, I agree. Although I do think that after spring training was shut down, and it was clear we'd be playing a ludicrously abbreviated season, the Sox decided there was no point in making any moves for that sprint. Hence the atrocious rotation. Plus, you likely had a much rosier outlook of what Moreland, JBJ, Verdugo and Benintendi were going to bring to the lineup than I did.

Still, it was a bad year, and Bloom owns it since it's on his watch.

As to this year, I posted upthread about the areas that gave me pause. I don't know why we didn't do more to solidify the bench, and I still don't understand what the point of having JBJ back on this team is. I also don't understand why we didn't do more to upgrade the bullpen. Personally, even during his great stretch last season, I never trusted that Barnes was a long time, lockdown solution at closer.

But again, I never, ever expected the O to be this putrid.

BaseballJones said:

2023...

- Different catcher hopefully
- Casas at 1b
- Bello, Winckowski, and Seabold in the rotation (or 2 of the 3)
- Walter in the bullpen (if you don't know who I'm talking about, check him out on soxprospects.com)

So who knows. But some interesting pieces for the future. And I'm pretty sure if the Sox were to trade X or JD or even Eovaldi, they could get a ton back for it. They'd be in full rebuilding mode at that point, but maybe that's not such an awful thing. I don't think it would take too long for them to get back to being good with all the talent they have and could add via trade.

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Two weeks ago I was of a far different mind when it came to being sellers this early in the season. That said what the one thing in baseball that it is said that you can't have too much of? Eovaldi may be a prime sell early candidate. If you're a serious playoff contender in need of a rotation boost might you prefer 5 months of a proven quality starter vs 2 months? And might you be willing to pay a premium for 5 months vs 2? And might you prefer to do so before other teams?

lexrageorge said:

If there is anything to pin on Bloom from that period, it’s the return on the Betts/Price trade. So far, it seems weak, but that canvas is still being painted.

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I'm not sure it needs to be painted that much more. They got decent talent back for a year of Mookie, and unloading Price. The only wrinkle is any opportunity cost Price's $16M payout created for them - hard to value. But it seems better than $31M a year for a non-starting Price (see below).

Boston:
Verdugo by WAR had 2.1 in 2020, and 2.2 in 2021. This year he's negative .04. So that's two years of a starting OF. Plus 3 more if he gets his head out of his ass. (He currently makes under $4M and is a FA in 2025.)
Wong at age 26 has been the up-and-down catcher. They mostly don't use him when he's on the roster.
Downs at age 23 is hitting .825 in his second season at AAA. (He had a bad slump in July and August of 2021.)

LA:
Betts was due $27M in 2020 and then was going to be a FA.
Price was being paid $32M for 20, 21, and 22. (The Sox paid $16M per to be rid of Price.)

So for aprox, $85M, less pro-rating and opting out, the Dodgers got a year of Betts and won the WS (60 game season) that year. (Yay, I suppose?)

Price opted out in 2020 and was moved to the pen in 2021, but gave the Dodgers 11 spot starts - it seems he's effective there this year, but even at $16, he's overpaid for what he brings, IMO. (Don't know if he could still start or no on another club.)

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

Proctor notched 102 IP in 83 games in 2006, including 45 appearances on 0 or 1 day of rest. That's why his arm got burned out.

I am envisioning Whitlock getting 110-120 IP in 55-60 games, which will allow for longer stints in games and more rest between them.

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So 55-60 games out of 162, or once every three games or so. How many of the blown saves since he went to the rotation does he swoop in and prevent with this deployment strategy?

These are the dates of the blown saves: 4/23, 4/24, 4/26, 4/30, 5/4, 5/7. I guess with a once every 3 days approach, he could have pitched in five of those six. But that means he probably doesn't pitch in any of the other games during that stretch. Two of those games are also games he started so maybe there isn't a lead to protect if someone else (Seabold? Houck?) starts them instead. Let's assume at least one of those games they don't get the lead for him to protect and he's not going to be perfect in the others so it is probably at best a 4-game swing to use him your way.

I guess 14-15 is marginally better than 10-19, but I suppose then we could focus on the actual problem with this team: the offense.

BaseballJones said:

2023...

- Different catcher hopefully
- Casas at 1b
- Bello, Winckowski, and Seabold in the rotation (or 2 of the 3)
- Walter in the bullpen (if you don't know who I'm talking about, check him out on soxprospects.com)

So who knows. But some interesting pieces for the future. And I'm pretty sure if the Sox were to trade X or JD or even Eovaldi, they could get a ton back for it. They'd be in full rebuilding mode at that point, but maybe that's not such an awful thing. I don't think it would take too long for them to get back to being good with all the talent they have and could add via trade.

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Heh, anyone who knows Bello is going to know Walter. He's well talked about and I think it's Keith Law? who is especially in love with him. It's possible he sticks in the rotation too. I'm a huge believer in Bello but biases aside, he's probably just as likely to end up in the bullpen as he is a starter. Still, the team should be adding a ton of major league talent via the farm over the next few years. SP Chris Murphy is climbing up some lists too. The Portland rotation is almost full of legit prospects in Bello, Walter, Murphy and Groome. It's possible the latter 2 are in the majors at some point next year too. Murphy obviously gets over looked a lot but he's climbed up to 11th on Sox prospects. Big question going into the year for Murphy was his splits vs R.

Murphy's year to date: 2.10 era, 30.0 ip, 16 hits, 10r/7er, 2 HRA, 14bb/38k.
vs R in 2022: 78 PA, .132/.244/.221, 10bb/24k.
vs R in 2021: 314 PA, .277/.342/.572, 25bb/86k.

SSS and all, but that's highly encouraging considering he's lights out vs L.

I'm not a Mata fan at all but he could also possibly arrive in 2023. There are others that are high on him, though.

Other 2023 hopefuls: David Hamilton, Jeter Downs, Ryan Fitzgerald (2022), Ronaldo Hernandez, Eduardo Bazardo, Frank German, AJ Politl, Thad Ward. I'm probably forgetting guys and a lot of these guys won't work out, but some will. There's a lot of reinforcements on the way. 2024 should be another huge wave of talent too.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

They bunched tons of offensive performance into fewer games and went long stretches were they couldn't hit anything at all, costing them games. They did things like lose 2 out of 3 in Tampa, scoring 5 runs total in their two losses and scoring 20 in the win. Their offense was a huge problem in the second half and it was obvious watching the games.

EDIT: Petagenie says it perfectly.

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They also wheeled out a pretty weak lineup in that time frame due to Covid and Schwarber not being able to play for quite a while after being acquired.

ngruz25 said:

Regarding Casas: the sample sizes are obviously small, but it may be worth pointing out that he's hitting much better at the launching pad that is Polar Park. He's got a home OPS of 1.058 compared to a road OPS of .741.

Worcester as a team is leading the IL in home OPS by a whole lot (nearly .100 points) at .956. In comparison, Worcester is in the bottom third of the league in road OPS at .696.

Casas would probably contribute more than Dalbec at this point, but our expectations should probably be tempered. He's young and has not had much seasoning.

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Last year
Home: .233/.376/.338, 31bb/40k, 2 HR in 165 PA
Road: .314/.408/.594, 26bb/31k, 12 HR in 206 PA

This year
Home: .326/.453/.605, 10bb/11k, 3 HR in 53 PA/43 AB
Road: .213/.315/.426, 9bb/18k, 3 HR in 73 PA/61 AB.

It's something to look at it but his struggles on the road this year looks mostly batting average related. Given the sample sizes, I'm not sure how much we can read from it. Especially since he hit for power on the road last year. I'm far more concerned about the L/R splits. While with someone like Jarren Duran, he has never hit for power at any level or anywhere outside of Worcester, so it's more problematic.

View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1523678424912461824

Last 15 games C, 1B, 2B, LF, RF, CF 320 AB - 0 HR - 23 RBI - 76 K .175/.236/.241/.477 pretty hard to accomplish to be honest nowhere to go but up - I hope

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Thats 6/9 spots in the lineup... If you told me that going into the season that 66% of our lineup would have THAT combined Stat line , I would have thought you were insane

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

A four game swing from a single role change is a HUGE difference.

Everyone knows the offense is a problem. I am pointing out that because the offense does not deliver big leads when they actually provide one, it's more vital than ever to have a dominant bullpen in order to nail down those leads. Since moving Whitlock to the rotation they have consistently failed to do so.

They are doing themselves and us as fans a huge disservice by using players in non-optimal roles. It's killing the season and me.

Nearly every decision this team has made this year has proven to be wrong, or at the very best ineffective and with unfortunate side effects. It's pretty remarkable, really.

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Honestly, if you want to complain about a bullpen decision that really has not worked out: using Houck and Whitlock as piggyback arms behind Wacha and Hill. It's a highly inflexible way to deploy your two best right-handed relievers, it puts them out of service for multiple days at a time, and it forces Cora to use worse pitchers during the rest of the week. It's a strategy that doesn't fit this roster as its constructed because this team doesn't have enough up-and-down Triple-A arms or stashable/fungible relievers who should be eating the bulk of those innings. If Bloom et al are convinced that piggybacking is the way to go, then it should be guys like Seabold or Winckowski doing that work. Using Houck and Whitlock there is a waste and far dumber than figuring out what they can do as starters; just let them be starters if you think they should be starters.

soxhop411 said:

View: https://twitter.com/bostonsportsinf/status/1523678424912461824



Thats 6/9 spots in the lineup... If you told me that going into the season that 66% of our lineup would have THAT combined Stat line , I would have thought you were insane

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However, to put names on that, if you told me that Vazquez, Dalbec, and JBJ all deeply struggled to hit this year, I would not have thought you were insane.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

The irony being that of Whitlock's four relief appearances before he moved to the rotation, one of them involved him giving up a one-run lead. And outside of his last relief appearance, he was never really used in a traditional fireman's role. He was piggy-backing on starters. The idea that he was the lynch-pin of the pen before Houck messed it up is fantasy. The plan all along was to use him in longer stints and eventually move him to the rotation. He's not a closer, he was never intended to be the closer, and screaming for him to be put in that role is about the same as demanding that Eovaldi do it.

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Yes to this. Whitlock is best as a long-term starter -- period. He's better as a starter than a reliever because he's less effective on short rest. It's good that he's in the rotation, and I hope he's there through 2028 at least. It is insanely valuable to have him in the rotation.

It's tempting to think he would have saved some of those close games, and he probably would have in some cases. But that scenario doesn't account for the games he doesn't start, which would have been bullpen games that taxed everyone else.

Re Casas: Why do people want him promoted now? If everything else clicks except 1B, then by all means bring him up. But if the season is lost, he's not going to swing it one way or another. I'm a big fan of promoting guys when they're ready, but it sounds like he knows what he's working on down there and it really does benefit the team considerably to bring him up in September and save a year of team control. Give him the starting job in 2023, and hope he wins Rookie of the Year.

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

Nearly every decision this team has made this year has proven to be wrong, or at the very best ineffective and with unfortunate side effects. It's pretty remarkable, really.

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And this, to paraphrase Ron Burgundy, is why I personally am more amazed than upset.

I'm fully sympathetic to those who want to see heads roll. I'm not there myself. I'm willing to give them 2023. But there better be some damn promising signs at that point.

Pretty much every young prospect struggles out of the gate these days, might as well let Casas and Duran get experience in a relatively low pressure environment. The bar has been set incredibly low, they’d likely be an improvement on what we are already getting from rf and 1b. I guess we could just stick with Bradley and Dalbec, but who benefits from that? The idea that Bloom, who thought Dalbec and Bradley and whomever else were good fits in their current roles, will magically know when a player is ready to get called up seems absurd to me, too. Call the kids who may be part of the immediate future up and see how they respond.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

Strahm has a 2.70 ERA, 1.87 FIP and a 0.800 WHIP in 13 appearances. He's been fine. The other two have been up and down but the sample is small enough that the bad is outweighing the good overall.

I guess the counter question is what is the right approach that could (should?) have been employed instead? Signing higher profile, more expensive relievers to longer contracts? Reliever effectiveness is so volatile, I'm not sure there's a strong case to be made for either strategy being superior as a way to have a stellar bullpen. But if you're going to make mistakes and sign ineffective guys, better to err on the side of cheap/short contracts, no? I get that's less exciting, but I don't think it's a bad idea.

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I think the big issue right now is that, for whatever reason, the farm system has yet to produce the kind of hard-throwing, cheap and (most importantly) optionable arms that stock a lot of MLB bullpens. You're right, reliever effectiveness is volatile, though the error bars for said volatility obviously are bigger or smaller depending on the caliber of pitcher you sign, and there's inherently more volatility in the Robles/Diekman tier of relievers. But this is where ideally you backfill using guys you've drafted and mILB free agents you've coached up, and the Sox seem to have a sharp deficit of those. Aside from Whitlock and Houck, where are the player development success stories in the bullpen? That's left them reliant on the rubbish that other teams throw out, and while you can find some gold in the garbage every now and again, that's not a sustainable path forward unless you're the Rays/Dodgers/Giants/Yankees and are elite at pitcher development.

TheYellowDart5 said:

Honestly, if you want to complain about a bullpen decision that really has not worked out: using Houck and Whitlock as piggyback arms behind Wacha and Hill. It's a highly inflexible way to deploy your two best right-handed relievers, it puts them out of service for multiple days at a time, and it forces Cora to use worse pitchers during the rest of the week. It's a strategy that doesn't fit this roster as its constructed because this team doesn't have enough up-and-down Triple-A arms or stashable/fungible relievers who should be eating the bulk of those innings. If Bloom et al are convinced that piggybacking is the way to go, then it should be guys like Seabold or Winckowski doing that work. Using Houck and Whitlock there is a waste and far dumber than figuring out what they can do as starters; just let them be starters if you think they should be starters.

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The piggy-backing thing is and always was a short-term solution. They're not going to be piggy-backing guys in June and July and August like they have so far. They had six guys targeted for the rotation and a ridiculously short spring training in which to sort it all out. So they took advantage of the slightly extended rosters in April and deployed a spring training staple to try to get all those guys opportunities to stretch out, figuring attrition and performance would settle things eventually. And now it has with Wacha hitting the IL. Houck and Whitlock are both starters now. When Wacha's ready to return, they'll see where they are and act accordingly. Ditto for when Sale and/or Paxton come back, if they do at all.

Red(s)HawksFan said:

The piggy-backing thing is and always was a short-term solution. They're not going to be piggy-backing guys in June and July and August like they have so far. They had six guys targeted for the rotation and a ridiculously short spring training in which to sort it all out. So they took advantage of the slightly extended rosters in April and deployed a spring training staple to try to get all those guys opportunities to stretch out, figuring attrition and performance would settle things eventually. And now it has with Wacha hitting the IL. Houck and Whitlock are both starters now. When Wacha's ready to return, they'll see where they are and act accordingly. Ditto for when Sale and/or Paxton come back, if they do at all.

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All fair points, particularly that it was designed to be temporary thanks to the short spring; I really do think the lockout and abbreviated camps hurt the team a lot. Still, to me, using Whitlock and Houck in those roles instead of whoever was capable of getting six to eight outs feels like a mistake. Those two are too important and good to the present and future to waste them like that, even if it is only for a month, and as it turns out, using them like that is probably a big part of why this team is as bad as it is right now. (This is also where signing better starters than Hill and Wacha who don't have such hard limits on their availability would make a difference, but that's a different conversation.)

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:

A four game swing from a single role change is a HUGE difference.

Everyone knows the offense is a problem. I am pointing out that because the offense does not deliver big leads when they actually provide one, it's more vital than ever to have a dominant bullpen in order to nail down those leads. Since moving Whitlock to the rotation they have consistently failed to do so.

They are doing themselves and us as fans a huge disservice by using players in non-optimal roles. It's killing the season and me.

Nearly every decision this team has made this year has proven to be wrong, or at the very best ineffective and with unfortunate side effects. It's pretty remarkable, really.

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It's kind of like trying to get a bet against the spread WRONG every time. It's just as hard to get such bets wrong as it is to get them right. What the Sox are doing is, in a strange and perverse way, pretty impressive.

jon abbey said:

Now this is a genuinely legit complaint, especially in a division with TB and NY who both seem to have an endless supply yet keep looking for and finding more impact guys (while Chaim was trading for Robles last summer, Cashman was trading for Clay Holmes).

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I think that’s exactly it, and it’s why the “well what free agent reliever should they have signed” argument misses the point. The Rays don’t sign many high priced relievers, but they always seem to have a good pen. There’s lots of ways to find players; it’s pretty frustrating that the best reliever the Sox have developed in the past decade is Matt Barnes, who was a first round draft pick who has accumulated a whopping 3.4 war over his career and been paid $20m for it.

Where is our Andrew Kittredge, JP Feyerrisen, or Jeffrey Springs (oops). I think this is what we wanted Bloom to bring over from Tampa. Although, we did get Whitlock so that’s huge!

Petagine in a Bottle said:

I think that’s exactly it, and it’s why the “well what free agent reliever should they have signed” argument misses the point. The Rays don’t sign many high priced relievers, but they always seem to have a good pen. There’s lots of ways to find players; it’s pretty frustrating that the best reliever the Sox have developed in the past decade is Matt Barnes, who was a first round draft pick who has accumulated a whopping 3.4 war over his career and been paid $20m for it.

Where is our Andrew Kittredge, JP Feyerrisen, or Jeffrey Springs (oops). I think this is what we wanted Bloom to bring over from Tampa. Although, we did get Whitlock so that’s huge!

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Credit where it's due: Matt Strahm has so far been an elite reliever -- an absolute shutdown dude. By wOBA allowed, he's been better than Springs, Clay Holmes and Raisel Iglesias, to name three guys who've come up in this thread. He'd be kind of an odd look for a closer, but he's not a loogy (reverse splits so far).

Besides him, a lot of other guys have been miscast. I'm liking Schreiber though.

jon abbey said:

Now this is a genuinely legit complaint, especially in a division with TB and NY who both seem to have an endless supply yet keep looking for and finding more impact guys (while Chaim was trading for Robles last summer, Cashman was trading for Clay Holmes).

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And to go off JA's point: Where is this team's equivalent of Holmes, or Andrew Kitteredge, or JP Feyereisen, or Ryan Thompson? Hell, the Rays are turning Jeffrey Springs into a starter; the dude has an ERA under 1 and a FIP under 2 after being white-hot garbage in Boston. Meanwhile Hansel Robles comes here and is the exact same mediocre pitcher he's always been, while scrapheap pickups like Tyler Danish and Austin Davis remain scrapheap pickups with no real sign that there's anything more there. Is this bad scouting or bad player development or both?

EDIT: Petagine out here reading my damn mind.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

I think that’s exactly it, and it’s why the “well what free agent reliever should they have signed” argument misses the point. The Rays don’t sign many high priced relievers, but they always seem to have a good pen. There’s lots of ways to find players; it’s pretty frustrating that the best reliever the Sox have developed in the past decade is Matt Barnes, who was a first round draft pick who has accumulated a whopping 3.4 war over his career and been paid $20m for it.

Where is our Andrew Kittredge, JP Feyerrisen, or Jeffrey Springs (oops). I think this is what we wanted Bloom to bring over from Tampa.

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If you give Baltimore Eduardo Rodriguez, who is the best SP the Sox have developed in the past decade? Tanner Houck? It's been a problem for awhile.

They've had plenty of top prospects in that time with Anderson Espinoza, Jay Groome (at one point), Michael Kopech, Barnes, Henry Owens. Probably missing some. Traded a bunch away but none really came back to hurt the Sox that I can think of. Kopech is doing pretty well.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

I think that’s exactly it, and it’s why the “well what free agent reliever should they have signed” argument misses the point. The Rays don’t sign many high priced relievers, but they always seem to have a good pen. There’s lots of ways to find players; it’s pretty frustrating that the best reliever the Sox have developed in the past decade is Matt Barnes, who was a first round draft pick who has accumulated a whopping 3.4 war over his career and been paid $20m for it.

Where is our Andrew Kittredge, JP Feyerrisen, or Jeffrey Springs (oops). I think this is what we wanted Bloom to bring over from Tampa.

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Agreed as well, though I think part of the issue is that it takes time to develop pitchers in the system, even short relievers. Bloom's had one and a half drafts (because the 2020 draft was a joke) to find his Kittredges and Feyerrisens. Some of this lays at Dombrowski's feet because he sure didn't do a good job of stocking up on pitchers. Though to be fair, some of his higher rated pitching draftees have had injury and military set backs.

I said this on the "how to get back in this thing" thread, but here's the first thing I'd do:

Move Whitlock back to the bullpen.

This isn't exactly scientific, but my theory is that while they started slow, their real slide started when Whitlock had to be moved to the rotation because Houk couldn't play in Toronto because he wouldn't get vaccinated. That denied the team their bullpen weapon and while the other guys were decent enough role players, pitchers like Robles got exposed in repeated high leverage situations. I can't really explain it but bullpen struggles have a way of infecting the rest of a team.

So fix that. As I said there, it doesn’t solve the putrid offense problem and leaves something of a hole in the rotation. But using Whitlock's skillset more than once every five days will help slam the door situationally, put the other bullpen arms in better positions to succeed, and potentially have a larger effect on the team.

BaseballJones said:

[snip]

That is unconscionably, unfathomably bad. Incomprehensibly bad.

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Okay, so not to belabor a couple points but, given all that hideous statistical information above:

#1. How could dumping Dalbec for Casas and letting him just be the 1B (no platoon, it's your job now Tristan) be any WORSE than what we've gotten from 1B so far?
#2. How is this roster construction not laid at the feet of Bloom? He built this lineup outside of JD, X, Devers and Vazquez, and it's currently doing... this.

mikeford said:

#2. How is this roster construction not laid at the feet of Bloom? He built this lineup outside of JD, X, Devers and Vazquez, and it's currently doing... this.

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Is there anyone saying that the roster construction isn't on Bloom?

I think the main defense of Bloom here is that no one could have predicted that all of these players would be putting up performances that are this bad. We're not talking about bad players playing as bad as they usually do. We're talking about good/solid players playing way worse than they have at any prior point in their career. No one should look at veteran players with a career OPS of .739, .774, and .853 and think .536, .573, and .545 is exactly what we should have expected from them (Kike, Verdugo, Story BTW). How much of that should we hold Bloom accountable for?

mikeford said:

Okay, so not to belabor a couple points but, given all that hideous statistical information above:

#1. How could dumping Dalbec for Casas and letting him just be the 1B (no platoon, it's your job now Tristan) be any WORSE than what we've gotten from 1B so far?
#2. How is this roster construction not laid at the feet of Bloom? He built this lineup outside of JD, X, Devers and Vazquez, and it's currently doing... this.

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I think we all pretty much agree that Casas would outperform what Dalbec has done. The question is whether it's in best Casas' best interest to have more than 168 PA in AAA. And the degree to which his long term interests outweigh the need to win now, given the hole they are already in.

mikeford said:

Okay, so not to belabor a couple points but, given all that hideous statistical information above:

#1. How could dumping Dalbec for Casas and letting him just be the 1B (no platoon, it's your job now Tristan) be any WORSE than what we've gotten from 1B so far?
#2. How is this roster construction not laid at the feet of Bloom? He built this lineup outside of JD, X, Devers and Vazquez, and it's currently doing... this.

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1. I don't think that's the question to ask. It's whether you think Casas will outperform Dalbec going forward.
2. It's on Bloom. Some just aren't ready to fire him or have a fire sale.

BaseballJones said:

Well looking at 2018 vs. 2019...

- The 2018 team played as well as humanly possible, really. They could have won like 112 games if they hadn't taken their foot off the gas. BUT...that team was a once in a lifetime squad that played out of their minds. The 1-2 punch of Betts and JDM (186, 173 ops+, respectively) was enormous, and they got huge contributions from Pearce (141 ops+) and Holt (109 ops+). Their rotation was phenomenal: Sale (2.11), Eovaldi (3.33), ERod (3.82), Price (3.58), and even Porcello (4.28).

- The 2019 team saw a lot of guys underperform compared with 2018. Mookie and JD were good, but not remotely AS good as they were in 2018 (134, 139 ops+, respectively). Pearce gave them a 31 ops+. But the key was the failing of the rotation. Look up at their rotation above, then look at this: Sale (4.40), Eovaldi (5.99), ERod (3.81 - only one who was decent), Price (4.28), Porcello (5.52). Their true level was probably between 2018 - when everything went right - and 2019 - when things went poorly for a team this talented. So one year you got the same group where everything went great and the next you had the same group where so much went wrong. They probably were about a mid-90s win caliber team both years.

And obviously it's going to go down from 108 wins and a WS title. Even bringing back the same crew. 108 wins is just...elite elite elite. Never had been done before by a Sox team in franchise history. Of course they were going to be worse. But 84 wins in a year when the pitching staff performs like that? Actually not too bad, to be honest.

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I know it's been rehashed in several capacity across different threads, but I don't know if it's ever been addressed directly. 2019-20 (Betts/Price trade, Dombo fired, Bloom hired) was the start of a complete tear-down of the mid-2010s core. Would the franchise have been in better off "keeping the band together," so to speak?

Here's a quick timeline:

• 2015 - 78-84 record. Last place. Dombrowski hired in August.
• 2016 - 93-69 record. First place. First year of the Price contract. Swept in the ALDS by Cleveland.
• 2017 - 93-69 record. First place finish again. Sale trade. Lost 3-1 to Houston in the ALDS.
• 2018 - 108-54 record. First place. First year of Cora. First year of JD. Won the WS.
• 2019 - 84-78 record. 3rd place. Regression from 2018. No where near the depths of 14/15 (or 22 so far).

This is where the Sox took a sharp turn. Dombrowski was fired in September. Bloom was brought in at the end of October. Betts/Price trade happened in February, signifying the beginning of the end of that core.

• 2020 - 24-36. Last place. COVID season. Cora suspended. Erod/Sale out for the season.
• 2021 - 92-70. Second place. Lost 4-2 to Houston in the ALCS.
• 2022 - 10-19. Last place in the division, worst record in the AL.

I think Bloom has another year or two of rope left (especially given COVID restrictions in 2020) but if the Sox have another 2020-like finish, I can't see Henry & Co. keeping him around much longer after that. As great as the Henry era has been, one of the things they haven't done well at is being patient. They've made some really rash, emotional decisions resulting from short-term problems. Bloom's process (like the Dodgers and the Yankees) requires patience. Does Henry have the stomach for a few years of bad press, empty seats, and pissed-off fans? Do we?

The farm, while much improved, is still middle of the pack. Another member of the 2018 core (Beni) is gone, with two more (X and Devers) potentially on their way out also. The major league team is abysmal, mostly because of underperformance, but Bloom left quite a few holes on the roster that don't need to be there. Signing a RF better than JBJ was a no-brainer, especially because we don't have anyone knocking at the door. Same with the bullpen, first base insurance, the lack of impact players on the bench. I understand that he's not trying to making long-term commitments on a team in transition (save Story), but I don't think Dombrowski would have left those holes on the major league roster (albeit at the expense of the farm system).

2019 was a turning point. Was that team capable of rebounding? Was firing Dombrowski the wrong move?

jon abbey said:

Now this is a genuinely legit complaint, especially in a division with TB and NY who both seem to have an endless supply yet keep looking for and finding more impact guys (while Chaim was trading for Robles last summer, Cashman was trading for Clay Holmes).

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Robles throws 97. Velocity isn't his problem. Dude throws seeds.

mikeford said:

Okay, so not to belabor a couple points but, given all that hideous statistical information above:

#1. How could dumping Dalbec for Casas and letting him just be the 1B (no platoon, it's your job now Tristan) be any WORSE than what we've gotten from 1B so far?

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It couldn't be worse than what Dalbec has done so far. It's almost statistically impossible. The questions, however, really are: (1) Which player is likely to do better for the team moving forward? And (2) Which situation is the best for the development of Casas, one of the better prospects in all of baseball, and a guy you figure is a cornerstone of the organization moving forward?

The answer to (1) is: who the heck knows? I mean, if Dalbec gets on one of his hot streaks, no chance that Casas does as well as that. But if he were to keep hitting like THIS, then of course Casas would likely do better.

The answer to (2) is: who the heck knows? He's probably going to develop more in AAA but I can see the value for HIM of pulling him up to the MLB club and letting him play regularly.

mikeford said:

#2. How is this roster construction not laid at the feet of Bloom? He built this lineup outside of JD, X, Devers and Vazquez, and it's currently doing... this.

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Well at one level obviously it's on Bloom, but really, I mean, when 9 out of 12 guys are hitting so unbelievably awful, even more awful than any negative prognostication could have anticipated, that's not on Bloom. Even if he figured that Story would hit .100 worth of ops WORSE than even his career non-Coors numbers, that STILL would be better than what he's done so far this year. You just can't make your plans based on expecting guys to be THIS bad.

Petagine in a Bottle said:

I think that’s exactly it, and it’s why the “well what free agent reliever should they have signed” argument misses the point. The Rays don’t sign many high priced relievers, but they always seem to have a good pen. There’s lots of ways to find players; it’s pretty frustrating that the best reliever the Sox have developed in the past decade is Matt Barnes, who was a first round draft pick who has accumulated a whopping 3.4 war over his career and been paid $20m for it.

Where is our Andrew Kittredge, JP Feyerrisen, or Jeffrey Springs (oops). I think this is what we wanted Bloom to bring over from Tampa. Although, we did get Whitlock so that’s huge!

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Feyereisen is good (and Rasmussen too), but the guy they traded for them has been worth 4.6 fWAR since the Rays shipped him out. That's more valuable than all but 20 hitters in baseball -- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been worth 4.9 fWAR over the same period -- and the Rays gave up 3 1/2 years of him.

JCizzle said:

However, to put names on that, if you told me that Vazquez, Dalbec, and JBJ all deeply struggled to hit this year, I would not have thought you were insane.

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Nope... you would still be insane if you thought that they would perform this bad. 320 ABs is almost a half season worth of AB's, and the fact that they didn't even hit ONE homer between the 6 of them, is almost impossible to believe. Honestly I doubt you would get that same Stat Line if you ran a multiple simulations with those 6, over 320 ABs

Since Rafael Devers came up in 2017, what major league ready, cost controlled talent has the farm system produced? I see Dalbec (yay!) and Tanner Houck. It's really, really hard to win that way. I don't care who the GM was, the solutions were going to be spend a fuckload of $ on long term deals on more proven guys, or bring in the best guys you can get on one or two year deals and hope for the best while keeping the books clear in the long term, while you build the farm back up. It was always going to be a tough run. Put Mookie Betts (and David Price) on this roster, while clearing requisite payroll to facilitate that (which means another 25 mil has to go after you tell me you would not have signed Trevor Story) and tell me what the team looks like.

This isn't on Bloom. I wish he had better plans for 1B and RF, but those are moves on the margins, and given how close they are to the tax, we don't know exactly how much freedom he had operate. He put a team out there that every projection system had pegged for 87 wins. Last year a lot of his guesses worked out. This year, not so much. Was he brilliant to sign Kike last year but stupid to rely on him this year?

FWIW, I think Dombrowski was fired because of the Sale contract, and, to a far lesser extent, the Pearce and Eovaldi contracts. He basically gambled the franchise's future on the Sale deal, which was looking like a major misstep by mid-2019, before his existing contract had even been fulfilled. Pearce got hurt early on and never played again (and the only reason i mention his contract at all is because I assume that money being committed to him in 2019 somewhat hindered the moves they could have made in-season). But by banking on Sale and effectively choosing two pitchers over a possible franchise cornerstone for the next decade or more (Betts), Dombrowski needed both of those deals to pay dividends immediately. When Sale fell apart, it was over for him regardless of how well Eovaldi pitched.

I also think the decision to let the luxury tax reset and curb off-season shopping played a role; Dave was never really known as a draft-and-develop GM.

BaseballJones said:

Well at one level obviously it's on Bloom, but really, I mean, when 9 out of 12 guys are hitting so unbelievably awful, even more awful than any negative prognostication could have anticipated, that's not on Bloom. Even if he figured that Story would hit .100 worth of ops WORSE than even his career non-Coors numbers, that STILL would be better than what he's done so far this year. You just can't make your plans based on expecting guys to be THIS bad.

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What are the odds that 9 of the 12 guys are that awful? By OPS+, Christian Vazquez is 4th on the team with at least 7 PA. His OPS+ is 65. It really is crazy to look at. Even if you don't adjust for OPS, but 4th highest OPS on the team is .573 (Verdugo)
150
144
133
65
65
63
59
56
29

Bench
60
53
-10
-15
-100
-100

The OPS+ of the 4th best hitter on the team is literally less than half the OPS+ of the 3rd best hitter. on the team. Is it just random? Does anyone deserve blame?

I also realize we are in silly season with sample sizes and the league slash line is .232/.306/.370. There's less of a gap between "awful" and average than normal. A 3/4 game with a double and HR would move the needle a lot . Maybe that explains the struggles. It really is just "average player variance." The level of offense this year league wide is just so bad. If the average player really is .232/.306/.370, the chances of someone having an OPS in the .550 range probably isn't that out of the norm. A 65+ OPS isn't great but it's not historically bad. It's like, carry one bat bad.

To further point out silly season, JBJ was slashing .147/.227/.206 just 16 PA ago. He's at .202/.264/.298 now. Raised his average .055/.037/.092 in 16 PA. I'm guessing some if it is just a SSS and a few players will turn it around. Some won't, though. I'm not suggesting JBJ turns it around, just showing the impact 16 PA can have.

Anyway, I'm not really sure what the cause is or who to sign blame to but if the hitting does continue like this all year, someone will have to be the scape goat. It's 3 hitters and 6 Javier's Christian's atm.

edit: Wrong Vazquez.

tims4wins said:

They’re not 10-19 because of Hill and Wacha.

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Are you sure?

Okay, that's hyperbole, but they've pitched a combined 48 innings over 10 starts, which puts strain on our much (rightly) maligned bullpen. The need to have Whitlock and/or Houck serve as their caddies because we know they can't be expected to pitch more than 4-5 innings has further strained the bullpen and impacted the rotation. Wacha (surprise, surprise) is already hurt, which jumbles our already jumbled rotation more.

When they've been able to pitch, they've both done well, better than could be expected (Wacha a lot better). They certainly aren't the biggest issues with the team. But their presence on our roster is, in their own ways, contributing to our problems.

Cesar Crespo said:

Anyway, I'm not really sure what the cause is or who to sign blame to but if the hitting does continue like this all year, someone will have to be the scape goat. It's 3 hitters and 6 Javier's atm.

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If this continues until the All Star break, let alone all season, they will scapegoat someone. But no one is getting scapegoated or fired before Memorial Day. Only fans (and maybe vintage SiaS) are that impatient.