Celtics Plan, Summer 2021

sezwho

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The PTSD is still strong with Boston fans. Six Super Bowl and four World Series trophies in the last twenty years, and folks are still worried that the kid who signed a four year extension like three weeks ago might shoot his way out of town.
Sure, but one of these things is not like the other: NBA/MLB/NFL player volatility.

While the Js have both grown in every way since 17-18 the roster talent around them has collapsed each year as well.

I don't think either J is inclined to bolt and I'm optimistic Ime gets the ship righted on both ends, both 14s show something, PP provides valuable minutes, TL stays healthy, etc. but there are many ifs.

One 'if' that's for sure, if this team further regresses the takez will flow and the grass will start to look very green elsewhere.
 

PedroKsBambino

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An interesting choice as this has played out: do you want proven guys with low upside and known limits who are “solid pros” to help stabilize rotation—-guys like George Hill, Avery Bradley, Niang?

Or do you gamble on upside figuring you can run out Grant, etc if they fail and you aren’t one guy away anyway? Winslow, Giles etc.
 

cheech13

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Is this team going to be able to put together a roster around the Jays good enough for...say....a 5 or 6 seed this year? Serious Q. Not a complaint or gripe, I am on board with the plan, but I also dont want to bottom out here.
It’s a good question. They were a 7 seed last year, downgraded in talent (so far) this offseason and have a rookie head coach. It’s very early in the offseason but a 5 or 6 seed seems very optimistic. They are certainly behind Milwaukee, Philly, Brooklyn, Miami and Atlanta.
 

teddykgb

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Is this team going to be able to put together a roster around the Jays good enough for...say....a 5 or 6 seed this year? Serious Q. Not a complaint or gripe, I am on board with the plan, but I also dont want to bottom out here.
It depends to me on how they fill the open roster spots. If Brown gets fully healthy and Tatum stays healthy they’ll probably be better than last year. Seeding is more complicated because of other teams but the Celtics so desperately lacked veteran NBA players last year that a few good additions would prob help them be more consistent and allow Brown and Tatum to be difference makers. The core of this team has been consistently good but there have been so many black holes that they’ve had no margin for error. I think it’s entirely possible to swap all the young talent who were trying to play their way into NBA contributor status for actual NBA contributors who have no real upside and have a more competitive team next year if Brad wants to go that way.
 

128

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It’s a good question. They were a 7 seed last year, downgraded in talent (so far) this offseason and have a rookie head coach. It’s very early in the offseason but a 5 or 6 seed seems very optimistic. They are certainly behind Milwaukee, Philly, Brooklyn, Miami and Atlanta.
So much hinges on Time Lord, IMO. If he's healthy, then this team might be more talented than the 2020-21 version, assuming Jaylen and Tatum don't regress. It's not like the C's had the services of a healthy Fournier for more than a handful of games last season, and Kemba rested on every single second night of back-to-backs.

With even modest improvement from Pritchard, Romeo and Nesmith, this team could be better. Not sure what to expect from Al at his advanced age, but he didn't put many miles on his tires last season.
 

Cellar-Door

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Is this team going to be able to put together a roster around the Jays good enough for...say....a 5 or 6 seed this year? Serious Q. Not a complaint or gripe, I am on board with the plan, but I also dont want to bottom out here.
IF they stay healthy... yes they have a top 15 player and another All-Star, they have solid bigs in TL and Horford (he was actually good last year, OKC shut him down because he was way better than they expected) Smart is a good piece, RIchardson is a rotation guy who could actually be good if he returns to Miami form. Some of it will come down to how Nesmith/Romeo/PP develop, but Grant in his role (small 5 not a wing) is fine, and I expect them to add at least 1 solid vet with the mini-MLE.

This team to me has probably the 5th best talent in the East, maybe 6th, but also outside of BKN, all the teams above them could easily fall back with any key injury.
 

Rustjive

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It’s a good question. They were a 7 seed last year, downgraded in talent (so far) this offseason and have a rookie head coach. It’s very early in the offseason but a 5 or 6 seed seems very optimistic. They are certainly behind Milwaukee, Philly, Brooklyn, Miami and Atlanta.
They honestly had a lot of things just go wrong last season, and the effort wasn't there for whatever reason (I blame TT :^)) I look back at the beginning of last season and they were 8-3 through the first 11 before Tatum went out with COVID - that's a team that did fine scoring (114 pts/G, and Jaylen+Jayson were only 53 of those points on average, no Fournier, no Kemba) and from that early season roster we upgraded from Semi/TT/Theis/Teague/Javonte to JRich/Horford/TL/Romeo/Nesmith. This a team that over the course of the season went from being more than the sum of their parts to way less. The exact seeding is more dependent on how well the rosters of our competition actually end up performing with their upgrades.
 
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Lazy vs Crazy

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Is the upgrade of Thomson to Horford bigger than the downgrade from Kemba to Richardson? At the least, the Celtics should be a better defensive team next year.

Horford's passing will help the offense a whole lot - but their rebounding will take a big step back, especially on the offensive end. I think it's mostly a wash, overall, and maybe a slight downgrade. A lot of this year will depend on Romeo figuring out how to score, Nesmith figuring out how to play in control, and Time Lord staying healthy. But with the East getting better, in general, the Celtics are no better than a 5 seed, and probably lower than that.
 

128

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Is the upgrade of Thomson to Horford bigger than the downgrade from Kemba to Richardson?
Kemba played in all of 43 games last season. He was generally pretty good when he was available, with some glaring exceptions, but that's a lot of missed time, and none was related to COVID, if memory serves.

His fellow Celtics, however, combined to lead the NBA in games missed to COVID, an ignominious milestone that helped derail the season.

For all intents and purposes, 2020-21 was a shitshow in Boston. Let's hope 2021-22 goes better.
 

teddykgb

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They honestly had a lot of things just go wrong last season, and the effort wasn't there for whatever reason (I blame TT :^)) I look back at the beginning of last season and they were 8-3 through the first 11 before Tatum went out with COVID - that's a team that did fine scoring (114 pts/G, and Jaylen+Jayson were only 53 of those points on average) and from that early season roster we upgraded from Semi/TT/Theis/Teague/Javonte to JRich/Horford/TL/Romeo/Nesmith. This a team that over the course of the season went from being more than the sum of their parts to way less. The exact seeding is more dependent on how well the rosters of our competition actually end up performing with their upgrades.
Jaylen also was completely unplayable early on. He was driving and making midrange 2s and looked to be really maturing as a scorer. Iirc he picked up an injury and wasn’t exactly the same after he came back. It may have just been a hot shooting streak butI really hope it was a flash of what was to come because he was really difficult to defend in those first dozen games.
 

slamminsammya

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Yeah, I think some people here are really underestimating the chances this team is better than last year's version. With so much youth you're going to have at least a few guys who are individually better. Most importantly if we have post COVID haze Tatum I feel like a lot is possible.
 

Cellar-Door

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Yeah, I think some people here are really underestimating the chances this team is better than last year's version. With so much youth you're going to have at least a few guys who are individually better. Most importantly if we have post COVID haze Tatum I feel like a lot is possible.
I think this team is better than last year's already, but at the same time the top 3 are still better, MIA just got way better, so it's really a fight for 5th best with NYK, ATL
 

bsj

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I think this team is better than last year's already, but at the same time the top 3 are still better, MIA just got way better, so it's really a fight for 5th best with NYK, ATL
Give me a top 5-6 playoff team, one that Beal can look at and say...yeah, I can make that team a title team. I just dont want to bottom out at 38 wins or something and suddenly look too far removed
 

Eddie Jurak

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Is this team going to be able to put together a roster around the Jays good enough for...say....a 5 or 6 seed this year? Serious Q. Not a complaint or gripe, I am on board with the plan, but I also dont want to bottom out here.
I think they will be 1) better than last year's team, 2) not a top contender. So 5-6 seed seems about right.
 

Big McCorkle

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Is this team going to be able to put together a roster around the Jays good enough for...say....a 5 or 6 seed this year? Serious Q. Not a complaint or gripe, I am on board with the plan, but I also dont want to bottom out here.
It depends on if you think their .500 record last season was an underperformance, overperformance, or an accurate expression of their real talent level.

Given the abundance of injuries, time missed due to Covid, and I think the inarguably bad fit of the roster in general, I think you reasonably have to expect a regression back towards average- average here being the average outcome for a team with a two great wings, one a superstar and the other an all-star, two high-quality bigs with complementary skillsets, an all-NBA defender who's not a complete potato on offense, and a number of roleplayers who may well be able to excel in a limited role or have plenty of room to develop.

A starting lineup of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Williams actually seems really good to me. It doesn't have any elite playmaking in there, but Tatum's shown real flashes of developing that talent, Smart isn't bad, and Horford and Williams are both rather good at that sort of thing, especially for bigs like they are. If Udoka can instill a good, decentralized and flowing offense in that lineup it could very well compete with the best of them. The problem is that after those five, it wouldn't be outlandish for any one of the bench players, be they Richardson, Dunn, Pritchard, Nesmith, Langford, Parker, or the other Williams, to be worthless potatoes; and if each of them can be, most or all of them could be.

If nothing else, the team quite objectively has two great players and three above starting-caliber guys to go with them, assuming health. Brown is the worst defender in that starting lineup. It's not a bad roster as-is. Timelord would need to be able to shoot threes like a heavily discounted Steph Curry for it to realistically compete with a healthy Brooklyn, but that's fine.

On the topic of Beal as a potential 2020 offseason target, I'm left wondering if it wouldn't be better to go for Julius Randle, or if at least he'd be a great consolation prize. Now, obviously Beal is overall the better player and his relationship with Tatum gives him extra value to the Celtics (given the apparent belief, at least among fans, that in the modern NBA there is a need to treat superstars like some combination of petulant children and arrogant gods among men), but his skillset, being an absolutely elite scorer from the 2-3 position with limited defensive upside, seems to me to be somewhat redundant with, rather than complementary to, Brown's and Tatum's. Whereas Randle, in comparison, still stretches the floor (assuming last season's 41% on 5.5 3PA wasn't a mirage) while bringing a presence on the offensive and defensive interior and on the boards in addition to solid-to-good playmaking, being basically a substantially better version of Horford. Beal, again, is the better player in a vacuum, but is Beal-Brown-Tatum actually better than Brown-Tatum-Randle? I think the answer is at least, "shit, maybe?"
 

JakeRae

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Is the upgrade of Thomson to Horford bigger than the downgrade from Kemba to Richardson? At the least, the Celtics should be a better defensive team next year.

Horford's passing will help the offense a whole lot - but their rebounding will take a big step back, especially on the offensive end. I think it's mostly a wash, overall, and maybe a slight downgrade. A lot of this year will depend on Romeo figuring out how to score, Nesmith figuring out how to play in control, and Time Lord staying healthy. But with the East getting better, in general, the Celtics are no better than a 5 seed, and probably lower than that.
I’d think of this more as Horford v. Kemba and Thompson v. Richardson to compare more relative to value. Through that lens, I would say yes. Horford is a largely lateral move. He has a lower ceiling that Kemba at this point but doesn’t have the health question marks and is a better roster fit as a complimentary offensive player and plus defensive player. Richardson is also better than Thompson, although that is a lot closer on the court and, similarly, is a better fit in that he is a more willing passer and provides floor spacing (not optimally, but like Smart he shoots well enough and willingly enough that you cannot ignore him) instead of clogging the paint.

I think the team hasn’t really upgraded talent, but I also know many here complained that the roster didn’t fit last year. The current roster does. We currently could benefit from another shooter and another playmaker. We’re heavy on perimeter defense and very light on perimeter offense with the current roster and also are short a swing type player. It’s no surprise that those are the types of players we’ve largely been targeting and it is disappointing that we seem to be missing on them, but also not surprising that most of those guys are gravitating to teams with greater certainty as contenders next year.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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It depends on if you think their .500 record last season was an underperformance, overperformance, or an accurate expression of their real talent level.

Given the abundance of injuries, time missed due to Covid, and I think the inarguably bad fit of the roster in general, I think you reasonably have to expect a regression back towards average- average here being the average outcome for a team with a two great wings, one a superstar and the other an all-star, two high-quality bigs with complementary skillsets, an all-NBA defender who's not a complete potato on offense, and a number of roleplayers who may well be able to excel in a limited role or have plenty of room to develop.

A starting lineup of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Williams actually seems really good to me. It doesn't have any elite playmaking in there, but Tatum's shown real flashes of developing that talent, Smart isn't bad, and Horford and Williams are both rather good at that sort of thing, especially for bigs like they are. If Udoka can instill a good, decentralized and flowing offense in that lineup it could very well compete with the best of them. The problem is that after those five, it wouldn't be outlandish for any one of the bench players, be they Richardson, Dunn, Pritchard, Nesmith, Langford, Parker, or the other Williams, to be worthless potatoes; and if each of them can be, most or all of them could be.

If nothing else, the team quite objectively has two great players and three above starting-caliber guys to go with them, assuming health. Brown is the worst defender in that starting lineup. It's not a bad roster as-is. Timelord would need to be able to shoot threes like a heavily discounted Steph Curry for it to realistically compete with a healthy Brooklyn, but that's fine.

On the topic of Beal as a potential 2020 offseason target, I'm left wondering if it wouldn't be better to go for Julius Randle, or if at least he'd be a great consolation prize. Now, obviously Beal is overall the better player and his relationship with Tatum gives him extra value to the Celtics (given the apparent belief, at least among fans, that in the modern NBA there is a need to treat superstars like some combination of petulant children and arrogant gods among men), but his skillset, being an absolutely elite scorer from the 2-3 position with limited defensive upside, seems to me to be somewhat redundant with, rather than complementary to, Brown's and Tatum's. Whereas Randle, in comparison, still stretches the floor (assuming last season's 41% on 5.5 3PA wasn't a mirage) while bringing a presence on the offensive and defensive interior and on the boards in addition to solid-to-good playmaking, being basically a substantially better version of Horford. Beal, again, is the better player in a vacuum, but is Beal-Brown-Tatum actually better than Brown-Tatum-Randle? I think the answer is at least, "shit, maybe?"
Not sure Al can play the 4 anymore, and I think he may be a better fit at the 5 with the starting/closing lineup given his ability to space the floor. My pipe dream is that Nesmith makes a big leap over the offseason and he can be the third wing alongside Brown and Tatum in the starting lineup playing the Duncan Robinson role with Horford handling the ball a bit and spacing the floor.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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A starting lineup of Smart-Brown-Tatum-Horford-Williams actually seems really good to me. It doesn't have any elite playmaking in there, but Tatum's shown real flashes of developing that talent, Smart isn't bad, and Horford and Williams are both rather good at that sort of thing, especially for bigs like they are. If Udoka can instill a good, decentralized and flowing offense in that lineup it could very well compete with the best of them. The problem is that after those five, it wouldn't be outlandish for any one of the bench players, be they Richardson, Dunn, Pritchard, Nesmith, Langford, Parker, or the other Williams, to be worthless potatoes; and if each of them can be, most or all of them could be.
As I was reading this, I thought surely there is no way those are the starting or finishing lineup under Brad - and then realized it will be a fascinating dynamic watching Udoka's tendencies in his rotations. Your starting lineup is coincidentally the top 5 players on the roster, but I think in practice this is a sub-par utilization of Horford. He's not effective enough to play PF due to a) his diminishing athleticism on defense and b) his best offensive implementation is pulling the defending center out to the arc with his credible 3-point shooting. I think for this reason, Horford and Robert Williams will only share the floor for a short period of time, if at all.

I think we're most likely going to see something like the below where 2 of Smart/Tatum/Brown/Horford are always on the floor together:

Starting: Smart, Langford, Brown, Tatum, Horford
First Sub: Smart, Richardson, Nesmith, Tatum, Williams
Second Sub: Pritchard, Richardson, Nesmith, Brown, Horford
etc
 

NomarsFool

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Three things concern me with the "all in on Beal" strategy.

#1) If we end up signing him as a FA, I really don't like the idea of renouncing everyone whose name doesn't start with J to make that possible. That'd be losing Marcus Smart for nothing, and Rob Williams, right?

#2) If we are acquiring him as a mid-season trade, do we have what it takes to land him - and what is even appropriate? The Lakers only bought a half-season of AD control, right? So, contract-wise it's a comp - but I think Davis is more of a generational player than Beal (they are the same age - didn't realize that).

#3) I have a lot of hesitations about giving out the 2nd max contracts (not talking about the Tatum - first max contracts). The second ones seem to really have the potential to hamstring your franchise.
 

cheech13

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Salary and roster fit aside, I would think going from Kemba/Fournier/TT to Al/Richardson/Dunn and giving up the rights to what became Sengun is a clear talent downgrade. Do others not see it this way?
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Salary and roster fit aside, I would think going from Kemba/Fournier/TT to Al/Richardson/Dunn and giving up the rights to what became Sengun is a clear talent downgrade. Do others not see it this way?
I think losing Kemba is addition by subtraction, and Horford is a big upgrade over TT, even at his age. Fournier to Richardson is a clear talent downgrade but overall I think it's a wash at worst. I certainly think we're looking at a much improved defensive team.
 

JM3

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Three things concern me with the "all in on Beal" strategy.

#1) If we end up signing him as a FA, I really don't like the idea of renouncing everyone whose name doesn't start with J to make that possible. That'd be losing Marcus Smart for nothing, and Rob Williams, right?

#2) If we are acquiring him as a mid-season trade, do we have what it takes to land him - and what is even appropriate? The Lakers only bought a half-season of AD control, right? So, contract-wise it's a comp - but I think Davis is more of a generational player than Beal (they are the same age - didn't realize that).

#3) I have a lot of hesitations about giving out the 2nd max contracts (not talking about the Tatum - first max contracts). The second ones seem to really have the potential to hamstring your franchise.
#1 If we can move Horford into someone's space, we could keep a couple other guys (not Smart).

#2 It depends on if anyone else is bidding & other teams will only be bidding heavily if they think they can resign him.

#3 These huge contracts are always scary, but he just turned 28 & his game should age relatively well.
 

JM3

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I think losing Kemba is addition by subtraction, and Horford is a big upgrade over TT, even at his age. Fournier to Richardson is a clear talent downgrade but overall I think it's a wash at worst. I certainly think we're looking at a much improved defensive team.
Fournier to JRich is a talent downgrade, but a full season of JRich should be more helpful to the team than 16 meh games from Fournier.
 

Jimbodandy

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Three things concern me with the "all in on Beal" strategy.

#1) If we end up signing him as a FA, I really don't like the idea of renouncing everyone whose name doesn't start with J to make that possible. That'd be losing Marcus Smart for nothing, and Rob Williams, right?

#2) If we are acquiring him as a mid-season trade, do we have what it takes to land him - and what is even appropriate? The Lakers only bought a half-season of AD control, right? So, contract-wise it's a comp - but I think Davis is more of a generational player than Beal (they are the same age - didn't realize that).

#3) I have a lot of hesitations about giving out the 2nd max contracts (not talking about the Tatum - first max contracts). The second ones seem to really have the potential to hamstring your franchise.
This whole post confused me. It seems like you're just thinking out loud here.

Yes, there's risk to putting all of your eggs in one basket. That's not what's happening here.

They're maintaining flexibility to go all in on Beal at the deadline or S&T next offseason, but with this flexibility also comes options to renounce and sign him. Or s&t or sign someone else. Flexibility is good.

Regarding point 3, if you want to elaborate on why you're not in on Beal himself, go for it. I'd be interested in the case of why he's not worth max money.
 

TripleOT

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Kemba wasn’t good enough at the offensive end to make up for the jeopardy he put the defense in when constantly being exploited. I’m good with a defensive minded, Jays oriented team.
 

TripleOT

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Fournier to JRich is a talent downgrade, but a full season of JRich should be more helpful to the team than 16 meh games from Fournier.
JRich a $9m/expiring, or Fournier at 3/$18m per, or out of service Hayward at 3/&32m per? I’ll take JRich
 

JM3

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Kemba wasn’t good enough at the offensive end to make up for the jeopardy he put the defense in when constantly being exploited. I’m good with a defensive minded, Jays oriented team.
Pretty impressive that Kemba put up such an exactly average shooting year last year compared to his career (42.0% overall & 36.0% on 3s this year compared to 41.9% & 36.0% for his career)...& that his average is so inefficient.
 

JM3

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JRich a $9m/expiring, or Fournier at 3/$18m per, or out of service Hayward at 3/&32m per? I’ll take JRich
JRich is going to cost $11.6m, & Fournier comes with a team option which is nice, but yeah, I think it's the right play & I like the fit.
 

Jimbodandy

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Pretty impressive that Kemba put up such an exactly average shooting year last year compared to his career (42.0% overall & 36.0% on 3s this year compared to 41.9% & 36.0% for his career)...& that his average is so inefficient.
I don't know this to be the case, but perhaps Ainge et al. expected that he might raise his efficiency a bit on a team that he didn't have to carry on his back.
 

Cellar-Door

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This whole post confused me. It seems like you're just thinking out loud here.

Yes, there's risk to putting all of your eggs in one basket. That's not what's happening here.

They're maintaining flexibility to go all in on Beal at the deadline or S&T next offseason, but with this flexibility also comes options to renounce and sign him. Or s&t or sign someone else. Flexibility is good.
In theory.. sure, in practice not necessarily. They are in many ways putting a lot of eggs in one basket (Beal?) in that if they don't get Beal, there are not a ton of other game changers out there. Re-signing Marcus is a lateral move at best, there is LaVine if CHI can't extend him, he's a nice piece, though I don't know that flipping Smart for a max or near max LaVine makes this a contender, Julius Randle feels like the same issue. Most of the RFA guys re-upped already, so your S&T is.... MPJ?

Flexibility is good only if you can use it. The Knicks stayed flexible for years and years chasing stars as their team fell apart. Never hit. The Celtics are putting not all, but a lot of eggs in the Beal basket. In part because they don't have many other good options, but we should also recognize that they have a pretty limited number of options to be a title contender before the "Brown and/or Tatum want to move on" window will start to open.
 

nighthob

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Salary and roster fit aside, I would think going from Kemba/Fournier/TT to Al/Richardson/Dunn and giving up the rights to what became Sengun is a clear talent downgrade. Do others not see it this way?
Offensively? Maybe. But it’s a giant defensive upgrade. That will help during the regular season.

I think losing Kemba is addition by subtraction, and Horford is a big upgrade over TT, even at his age. Fournier to Richardson is a clear talent downgrade but overall I think it's a wash at worst. I certainly think we're looking at a much improved defensive team.
The reports late last year were that Walker was becoming a locker room problem. So even beyond the performance issues, post-injury, that’s quite possibly true.

Pretty impressive that Kemba put up such an exactly average shooting year last year compared to his career (42.0% overall & 36.0% on 3s this year compared to 41.9% & 36.0% for his career)...& that his average is so inefficient.
Boston thought (hoped, really) that they were getting 2017-2019 Kemba. But looking back on it the warning signs were there because his last year in Charlotte was very average by scoring efficiency standards. Pre-injury here he looked a lot like the 2017 and 2018 Walker, where the offense was good enough to carry the D. But post-injury he became a huge liability on defense, and average scoring efficiency while playing with an offensive gravity well don’t cut it. He had to go.
 

the moops

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In theory.. sure, in practice not necessarily. They are in many ways putting a lot of eggs in one basket (Beal?) in that if they don't get Beal, there are not a ton of other game changers out there. Re-signing Marcus is a lateral move at best, there is LaVine if CHI can't extend him, he's a nice piece, though I don't know that flipping Smart for a max or near max LaVine makes this a contender,
I think I would actually prefer Zach Lavine to Bradley Beal, to be honest
 

HomeRunBaker

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This whole post confused me. It seems like you're just thinking out loud here.

Yes, there's risk to putting all of your eggs in one basket. That's not what's happening here.

They're maintaining flexibility to go all in on Beal at the deadline or S&T next offseason, but with this flexibility also comes options to renounce and sign him. Or s&t or sign someone else. Flexibility is good.

Regarding point 3, if you want to elaborate on why you're not in on Beal himself, go for it. I'd be interested in the case of why he's not worth max money.
^^^^^^This
 

Sprowl

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Premise 1: NBA players peak at 26. Big improvements can be expected of Langford and Nesmith; incremental improvements from Tatum, Brown, Pritchard, Robert Williams, and Grant Williams. Smart, Richardson and Dunn have already peaked, but recently. Only Horford v2021 is in a rapid decline phase. Talent improvements from the youngest players should provide partial compensation for the loss of Hayward, Irving, Walker, Horford v2018, Fournier -- but that is a lot of talent to lose. Tatum and Brown are at the right points in their careers to carry the offense for extended period.

Premise 2: The Celtics' defense depended on switchability (Walker, Thompson and Fournier broke this), practice time (COVID broke that), and buy-in (in retrospect, it appears that Stevens did lose the clubhouse). New leadership from Udoka will help with practice and buy-in. The acquisitions (Richardson, Horford v2021, and Dunn) are good individual defenders, and can be expected to play well in a system similar to Stevens v2018. I expect the defense to be a lot better, especially on the perimeter.

Prediction: 48-34, assuming Beal is not acquired at the deadline.
 

EL Jeffe

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Aug 30, 2006
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I get the concern in vacuum but Boston is doing the right thing. One of the media guys called it purgatory and that's where Boston is right now. Not good enough to win a title and nowhere near bad enough to land a draft game changer. Tinkering around the margins to improve from a 7th seed to a 5th seed at the expense of hurting next year's cap flexibility would be foolish. It sucks wasting a year of the Js after this past season's waste, but it's still the right play. They need a viable 3rd star (not some nice role players). The only way they're going to get that guy is through having the cap flexibility to land him. It's going to make for a frustrating 2021-22 season, but alas.
 

NomarsFool

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Dec 21, 2001
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Regarding point 3, if you want to elaborate on why you're not in on Beal himself, go for it. I'd be interested in the case of why he's not worth max money.
According to the market, Beal will certainly command a max contract at his age 29/30 season. My point is that giving out max contracts to players at their age 29/30 season makes me quite nervous. Both because the numbers get so large, but also because the risk seems much higher (see Kemba). Giving out max contracts to players after their first 4-5 years of team control (see Tatum, Jason) seems much less risky.
 

NomarsFool

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I get the concern in vacuum but Boston is doing the right thing. One of the media guys called it purgatory and that's where Boston is right now. Not good enough to win a title and nowhere near bad enough to land a draft game changer. Tinkering around the margins to improve from a 7th seed to a 5th seed at the expense of hurting next year's cap flexibility would be foolish. It sucks wasting a year of the Js after this past season's waste, but it's still the right play. They need a viable 3rd star (not some nice role players). The only way they're going to get that guy is through having the cap flexibility to land him. It's going to make for a frustrating 2021-22 season, but alas.
If we are mostly writing off this season, then, we should trade Smart now for whatever we can get for him. I might have also just 'suffered' through another season of Kemba and held onto the 16th pick for now.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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around the way
According to the market, Beal will certainly command a max contract at his age 29/30 season. My point is that giving out max contracts to players at their age 29/30 season makes me quite nervous. Both because the numbers get so large, but also because the risk seems much higher (see Kemba). Giving out max contracts to players after their first 4-5 years of team control (see Tatum, Jason) seems much less risky.
Statistically that's probably accurate. I don't think that I'd gameplan around it though, unless a guy has an injury track record of red flags. If Beal were a couple of years older and a couple of inches shorter, maybe. Unfortunately everyone has a risk attached to them.
 

NomarsFool

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View: https://twitter.com/JaredWeissNBA/status/1422607333801140227


Finally an answer to "Why isn't Grant playing in summer league?" from Jared Weiss.

He was given the option but decided to take time off to recover from two years in the playoffs. Hopefully he uses the time to get right, because the regression last year was real bad.
I get that 3rd year players don't typically play in the summer league. BUT, is a couple extra weeks of individual workouts really better training for him than summer league? I'm a little surprised - I'd think he should be doing everything he can to show the Celtics that he can contribute.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Dec 24, 2002
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According to the market, Beal will certainly command a max contract at his age 29/30 season. My point is that giving out max contracts to players at their age 29/30 season makes me quite nervous. Both because the numbers get so large, but also because the risk seems much higher (see Kemba). Giving out max contracts to players after their first 4-5 years of team control (see Tatum, Jason) seems much less risky.
The dynamic you describe is the reality that all NBA teams have to confront. The fact that they appear to be ok with handing out these types of deals suggests they may not share your concern over the degree of risk. As a general rule, people get too hung up on the terms of these contracts - length and/or dollars. Yet a core skill of running an NBA (sports) franchise is the ability to construct and execute transactions that effectively pay to make problem contracts go away.

My biggest concern isn't that the C's get saddled with a bunch of what turn out to be bad deals. Its that they never get the opportunity to make those sorts of mistakes.
 

Lazy vs Crazy

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If we are mostly writing off this season, then, we should trade Smart now for whatever we can get for him. I might have also just 'suffered' through another season of Kemba and held onto the 16th pick for now.
We couldn't make the pick because that would add salary next season, which puts signing Beal out of reach. Likewise any players we could get for Marcus - we'd have had to trade him for an expiring contract and a first round pick further in the future or it would ruin the cap next year.
 

Cellar-Door

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Aug 1, 2006
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I get the concern in vacuum but Boston is doing the right thing. One of the media guys called it purgatory and that's where Boston is right now. Not good enough to win a title and nowhere near bad enough to land a draft game changer. Tinkering around the margins to improve from a 7th seed to a 5th seed at the expense of hurting next year's cap flexibility would be foolish. It sucks wasting a year of the Js after this past season's waste, but it's still the right play. They need a viable 3rd star (not some nice role players). The only way they're going to get that guy is through having the cap flexibility to land him. It's going to make for a frustrating 2021-22 season, but alas.
I think there are two things at work here:
1. IS this the right move
2, is it a risky move

Both are true. A bunch of things, some Danny's fault some not have put us in a position where our best chance to be real contenders is to clear space to aggressively pursue a (likely lower end) max player to pair with Tatum and Brown and then fill in the gaps with cheap vets. That's a risky strategy, even if it is the best. Lots of teams take the best strategy available to them and have epic failures.
 

BigSoxFan

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May 31, 2007
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The dynamic you describe is the reality that all NBA teams have to confront. The fact that they appear to be ok with handing out these types of deals suggests they may not share your concern over the degree of risk. As a general rule, people get too hung up on the terms of these contracts - length and/or dollars. Yet a core skill of running an NBA (sports) franchise is the ability to construct and execute transactions that effectively pay to make problem contracts go away.

My biggest concern isn't that the C's get saddled with a bunch of what turn out to be bad deals. Its that they never get the opportunity to make those sorts of mistakes.
This is where I'm at. This is NBA basketball so it isn't life and death or anything but it would suck from a fan perspective if the Jay's never got the chance to compete with a title-worthy roster during their prime. Adding Beal to that core with some quality role players is the best we can hope for at this point after the Kyrie/Hayward situations. For me, the only thing worse than a bad hand is never getting to play a hand at all. If Beal gets added on a monster deal and injuries or age become a factor...so be it. It's still better than the alternative where Tatum starts looking around for better opportunities in a few years.
 

Rustjive

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Dec 30, 2009
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According to the market, Beal will certainly command a max contract at his age 29/30 season. My point is that giving out max contracts to players at their age 29/30 season makes me quite nervous. Both because the numbers get so large, but also because the risk seems much higher (see Kemba). Giving out max contracts to players after their first 4-5 years of team control (see Tatum, Jason) seems much less risky.
You have PTSD. Every contender is giving out max contracts to older and/or injured players. The Suns just re-signed CP3 to a 4-year deal at 36. Jrue was given the max extension at age 31. The Clippers are about to re-sign Kawhi again. The Heat just re-signed Butler to a max extension at age 31. AD of course has had a long list of injuries. When the time comes, the Nets are going to try and re-sign their 34 yo PF, their 33 yo SG and their injury prone lunatic. Simply put, a substantial fraction of the best players in the league are older/sometimes injured. You simply won't be able to put together a true contender without taking some risk, as good or great young players are not moving and/or cannot move teams.
 

Kliq

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I don't think the Heat are THAT good, and their off-season is getting really overblown. It's good they retained Robinson, but they had to pay a lot to do it. Lowry still appears to be a good player, but his health is likely be a question mark given his playing style and size. He is also replacing Dragic, and while Lowry is a better player, the gap isn't that big, so they aren't going from a JAG to an All-Star. Herro is a decent young player who was reportedly being shopped earlier this year and is a bad defender. Bam is a good two-way player, Butler is a solid (but flawed) star, but this is mostly the same team that got annihilated by Milwaukee in the first round, but they replaced Dragic with Lowry. I'd need to see a big leap from Bam and Herro in this upcoming season to think they are clearly ahead of the Celtics.
 

nighthob

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Jul 15, 2005
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One of the media guys called it purgatory and that's where Boston is right now. Not good enough to win a title and nowhere near bad enough to land a draft game changer.
The proper term is mediot, they already drafted their game changer. They just need the right mix around the JayCrew. The Clippers made the Western Conference Finals with a squad that's an older version of this one. If Nesmith makes the same second year leap that he's made at every previous level Boston might actually be in good shape (i.e. he'll be a real asset for a Beal deal or a great fallback if Beal decides to waste his career in DC).