Cade to Black: 2021 NBA Draft Thread
- Thread starter Kliq
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I just checked again, hadn’t in a week, and Ayayi is 40.5 at the couple places that have posted these numbers.
don't think O/U tell you much at that level, it isn't like they have one guy at each level. 42.5 O/U says to me that Vegas thinks they'll get good action on that number. If anything, since people prefer to bet overs on guys like that I would guess the oddsmakers think those guys are more likely to go after 42 than before it.
If you're looking at who is likely to be available at 45, a 42.5 O/U to me says there is a very solid chance that guy will be there. And if you're looking at who targets should be, you're going to be looking in the general area of the pick, so up to 10 above and 10 below since guys fall.
Grimes climbed the mocks after the combine. Unfortunately, he probably won't last until 45
as far as Vegas Insider, I'm seeing
Grimes at 32.5
McBride 30.5
Wieskamp 42.5
looks like they have ~50 players O/U but not seeing anything on Bassey, Hyland, Nix
Bassey and Hyland have shown up on 1st round mocks, so that seems odd
https://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/odds/draft/
There are about 60 players projected to go in the top 40. By mathematical necessity some of them are going to be there at 45. The other complicating factor is that the talent pool from 20-50 is pretty flat. There’s just not a lot separating these guys.
I’ve got McBride at 22 he’s going to be a first rounder. Bassey is a strange case. He was projected mid-1st round a couple years ago but decided to return to WKU, injures his knees, returns healthy and is a borderline first rounder heading into workouts. Now, he’s off the board on most and 55.5 on one.....so there must be a medical (or other) red flag that nobody in the media is reporting on.
Golden State should be dealing their picks, but if they’re going to make them they might want to take a home run swing on Jalen Johnson. He’s Cam Reddish v2.0. He has all the tools to be a star, but his problems are between the ears. On a vet team he’s a lot more likely to hit his upside.
Don’t know what rock I’ve been under but apparently the Celtics have worked out some PG’s over the past month. The most interesting being Sharife Cooper and my guy Miles McBride, along with versatile frontcourter JT Thor, one of the high upside kids I love drafting.....long, athletic, 3-point range, can defend all 3 frontcourt positions, and the youngest player in the draft.
Brad has convinced agents that he will trade up into the first round which of course is some exciting stuff. The usual suspects with trade value would be needed to get there.....Smart, Nesmith, TL, etc etc.
Brad has convinced agents that he will trade up into the first round which of course is some exciting stuff. The usual suspects with trade value would be needed to get there.....Smart, Nesmith, TL, etc etc.
I don’t sense a promise as all of those players slip to the second round in at least some mocks, and I’d be stunned if PBS traded an asset like Smart, Nesmith, TL, etc. for a pick in the 20-40 range.
Not a promise but Brad would have to convince the agent that it is worth the trip. Cooper is a 1st round lock and could go as high as the late teens. A workout for a player such as this doesn’t happen if the agent isn’t certain that the team is willing to move into around the 20-slot. That was my point. It also makes sense as to the point I had been making regarding Dejounte as we currently don’t have a legit starting 1 on the roster today or moving forward.
So for Brad to do this he must know of specific wants that a team would require to get out of their slot. It may be as simple as OKC wanting to push back their 18th pick a couple years or Atlanta wanting to move out of 20 as to not have to guarantee money to where swaping years may all they need.
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I‘m not saying that they’re a definitive source, but nbadraft.net has Cooper sliding to #35:
https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/
I think it’s very possible to interpret a Cooper workout as something other than Stevens convincing agents that he”s moving into the first round.
The consensus I see on Cooper is 21 and his betting market is 20.5 although I will say that this years nbadraft.net doesn’t seem as out of whack as it has been in years past.
I think that’s very possible. I also find it likely that Stevens is doing his due diligence in case of a draft night slide rather than angling to get back into the first round.
I understand due diligence but no agent is going to allow his surefire 1st round pick to spend multiple days in the city of a mid-2nd round pick middle of draft workouts of other teams with 1st round picks that are in his range.
Yeah, no. This kid is super special. You don’t come out of HS, miss all of camp, miss all of your non-conference schedule, then step into the SEC in January and dominate out of the gate without being able to shoot yet.
It‘s possible that the agent has intelligence that Cooper is not a surefire 1st round pick or enough experience to know that the middle of this draft is considered flat and his client could slide.
To 45?
You’re always going to have red flags on some players during the pre-draft process that causes them to drop. I disagree with the premise that this year is some wild free for all between say 20 and 40.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JuicyRed0_/status/1418920956328914945
Alright I’ve heard enough. How can we get to #1?
Alright I’ve heard enough. How can we get to #1?
Romeo, Nesmith, Semi, Grant and the #45. I’d hate to include TL but would probably swap him out for Nesmith if we HAD to.
#SoSHoffer
I mean people sell #2s all the time. OKC is sitting on top of six draft picks without the room to roster them all. Given the options between taking draft & stashes that have a near 100% bust rate and taking cash and future picks I’d bet they’d opt for the latter.
Don’t get me wrong, the Lil’ Zeke years were fun. But Brad ain’t Doc Brown and I’ve no desire to see Back to the Future 2: Green Boogaloo.
Next deep dive on a player in the 20-50 tier, Alabama’s Josh Primo.
If you squint hard you can see an NBA starter there. But he’s really raw. There are a lot of tools there. Going through his highlight reels for the January game against Auburn you see some pretty heady defensive plays (at one point he seizes the ball in a crowd, but seeing he has nowhere to pass the ball and falling out of bounds he bounces the ball off an Auburn player). His shot was falling that night and he killed the Tigers.
Offensively you see a lot of basic skills that need work. He can dribble but he’s too loose with the ball. He can pass but he doesn’t always make quick decisions. He also has a tendency when attacking to go up before deciding what he’s going to do with the ball. He can shoot, but there’s a lot of guide hand action, meaning that he’s really streaky and when the shot’s not falling you see a lot of hard bounces off the rim (from the spin rates).
Overall you can see a guy whose 5% projection is high end 3&D guy. His 1% projection is something like Marcus (Swiss Army knife player that can impact the game without needing touches) with three point shooting. One reason that you can see him hitting his 5% and 1% projection is that he’s so young. He won’t turn 19 until late December. His immediate future is in the G League. But if he’s there at #45 he might be worth the gamble as a two way guy.
If you squint hard you can see an NBA starter there. But he’s really raw. There are a lot of tools there. Going through his highlight reels for the January game against Auburn you see some pretty heady defensive plays (at one point he seizes the ball in a crowd, but seeing he has nowhere to pass the ball and falling out of bounds he bounces the ball off an Auburn player). His shot was falling that night and he killed the Tigers.
Offensively you see a lot of basic skills that need work. He can dribble but he’s too loose with the ball. He can pass but he doesn’t always make quick decisions. He also has a tendency when attacking to go up before deciding what he’s going to do with the ball. He can shoot, but there’s a lot of guide hand action, meaning that he’s really streaky and when the shot’s not falling you see a lot of hard bounces off the rim (from the spin rates).
Overall you can see a guy whose 5% projection is high end 3&D guy. His 1% projection is something like Marcus (Swiss Army knife player that can impact the game without needing touches) with three point shooting. One reason that you can see him hitting his 5% and 1% projection is that he’s so young. He won’t turn 19 until late December. His immediate future is in the G League. But if he’s there at #45 he might be worth the gamble as a two way guy.
Have you looked at Kessler Edwards yet?
nice length/wingspan, shooting% is solid but slow launch
Last year they had #4 pick Patrick Williams mocked at 25 and 2nd rounder Vernon Carey in the lottery.
There is so much information out there that a handful of guys are getting which coincides with that players betting market (ex: Bouknight) that when there is one singular outlier it renders them useless. Nobody had Carey in the lottery last year while everyone knew Williams was going Top-6.
After watching some Kessler vid, Pepperdine needs to get out of the gymnasium and build a multipurpose arena. They own swaths of some of the most beautiful real estate on the planet, shouldn't be that tricky to figure out (then again the roads/PCH & neighbors probably kibosh any thoughts of 10K+ driving in for a Monday night game).
These numbers are moving on information similar to how they moved leading up to the NFL draft which was spot on. Lots of information in these moves.
Anyone else like Jericho Sims at 45? Unlike many of the other names discussed he should be on the board when we pick. I’m getting some Montrezl vibes from him.
Some yeah but there have been some guys mentioned that nobody on the inside has outside of the Top 40. There is no default if these guys go where they are expected based on some intel from the sources who have fared well in the past. I wanted to mention a guy like Sims who realistically could be available at 45.
https://nbadraft.theringer.com/mock-draft
KOC just updated his draft based on what he's hearing around the league.
He has the Celtics taking David Johnson.
Some of the names discussed here that were gone on his board:
Primo goes 28
Ayayi goes 38
Grimes goes 42
Jones goes 44
Guys who have been discussed here that were on the board when he had BOS go Johnson:
Wieskamp goes 46
Edwards goes 49
Bleijenbergh goes 53
Sims is not drafted
KOC just updated his draft based on what he's hearing around the league.
He has the Celtics taking David Johnson.
Some of the names discussed here that were gone on his board:
Primo goes 28
Ayayi goes 38
Grimes goes 42
Jones goes 44
Guys who have been discussed here that were on the board when he had BOS go Johnson:
Wieskamp goes 46
Edwards goes 49
Bleijenbergh goes 53
Sims is not drafted
Sims betting market is 48.5. Of the group of 7 mocks I follow I see him between 44 and 57 from last week from all but KOC however he didn’t include a 2nd round lock last week. Looks like he did this week and still no Sims. Interesting stuff.
I wonder how good Ben Wallace would be in today's NBA... Serious question. Not shade.
I don't think of Sims as being a super high motor guy. Is he?
He showed spurts in the Combine game when I’m pretty sure he led his team in scoring and rebounding on Day 2. He can jump out of the building as he showed at times in Texas. It’s the 45th pick.....not expecting the guy picked to do much but Sims has the physicals to maybe be able to compete and find his niche at this level.
I mean I don't really care who they take at 45 as long as it's not a tiny shooting guard. I'm just not that excited by his profile & would rather take a bigger swing, I get it, though.
I think this is very similar to our Steven Adams disagreement tbh...higher jumping Adams is probably Sims' top end outcome.
Queta seems to me like an energy guy who also has a few skills. 71% FT, can hit the occasional mid range, good passer.
Kevin Pelton cutting against the CW with his latest statistical projections…
Sengun #1
Giddey #5
Mitchell #42
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31890625/nba-draft-2021-ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting
Grain of salt (Pelton allows that these are based heavily on stats, with no defensive evaluation) though by the same system last year he did nail Ball, Haliburton, and Edwards…
Sengun #1
Giddey #5
Mitchell #42
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31890625/nba-draft-2021-ranking-top-30-prospects-based-stats-scouting
Grain of salt (Pelton allows that these are based heavily on stats, with no defensive evaluation) though by the same system last year he did nail Ball, Haliburton, and Edwards…
It's a great and fun question: my two cents is that he'd be a great five in today's game, overall likely similar value but with a little more risk of slowing an offense. He was an impact rebounder and rim protector in a bigger era, those will only be amplified today. He was quick, so he could handle switching and defending on the perimeter better than many bigs today can---I actually suspect he'd be even more impactful defensively today than he was in his prime era. His offensive game would be somewhat more harmful today than it was then, but he was survivable as a screener then and he still would be today. You just build your offense around assumption he's on the weak side trying for offensive rebounds or setting screens near the ball and deal with the fact you are largely 4 on 5. That will hurt a bit more today because he'd be switched off and shaded away from even more by smaller 5s guarding him, but that's the cost of getting the production at the other end.