Trade deadline

chawson

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Miami desperately wants a young CF. There’s probably a deal of Duran+ for Marte/Aguilar. The + being a couple in the 15-20 range.
I think that’s way too much for Marte/Aguilar, but I’d take one of their pitchers. I think our interest in Starling Marte is overblown. We already have the best center fielder in baseball? (Hyperbole, but not by much.)
 

nvalvo

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Miami desperately wants a young CF. There’s probably a deal of Duran+ for Marte/Aguilar. The + being a couple in the 15-20 range.
Why are we trading Duran and more for a rental or a player with 1 more year of control?
I hardly think it's scripture, but FWIW the baseball trade simulator thinks Duran is ~3x as valuable as a package of Marte/Aguilar.
 

chawson

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Not by much? By what measure do you think that's anywhere realistic?
Posted this in the Kiké thread, but his 3.3 bWAR now ranks 12th among all AL position players, and he has the most defensive runs saved among CF. Cedric Mullins is higher (and there’s obviously Trout), but he’s been exceptionally good, and I’m not sure it makes sense to move him several notches down the defensive spectrum.
 

OCD SS

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Back when I said I was down on Duran, it was as a long term solution in CF, mostly because I don’t think he’s going to overcome his swing & miss or bad routes overall, and his age is working against him a bit. His speed will cover for the mistakes in CF and his new power makes the bat play up; short term at the league minimum he’s a great piece to have, but if you can pull a Kike type in on short money with the added positional versatility, it makes Duran a valuable trade chip. Let the Marlins deal with the ML development while paying him peanuts, and take shorter cost control with Marte. If that also helps the Sox pull in pitching and/ or a 1Bman for the stretch run, all the better.

As my own counter point I’ll add that MLB is increasingly a game of youth, so I think more frequently that’s where to put your chips, but I do trust Chaim to have the correct talent evaluation To make these deals.
 

cantor44

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It's getting harder for me to find the logic not to GFIN.

Here are the facts:

- Sox are - albeit unexpectedly - in first place a few days before the trade deadline
- They have several expiring contracts of core players after the 2022 season (Xander opt out, JD, Eovaldi, ERod, Vazquez - those are heavy hitter foundational players)
- The team clearly has its weaknesses - it needs some help to really be fully championship caliber
- The team is relatively healthy

Given everything above, including the good luck with health, the team might actually be in a position that it might not be in for a while again; mind you 2022 team stands to be superb, but you never know what the injury bug will do; after 2022, there may be another wave of rebuilding, or certainly some big time turnover.

I think we all went into the season seeing it as a rebuilding year. I certainly did, and that's certainly how the media framed it. Given how bad the team was in 2020, it seemed it might take 3-4 years to get back into contention. But ... well, Bloom made some shrewd moves, Cora has provided superb leadership, some players are playing above their mean (or simply improving) and some guys you expected as much from have bounced back.

It's hard to change the framing of the season (or change the framing for your understanding of anything), but maybe it's time do so for the 2021 season. The team is better than expected. It's healthy. It core won't stay in place for long. Maybe now is the time.
 
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JBJ_HOF

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- The have several expiring contracts of core players after the 2022 season (Xander opt out, JD, Eovaldi, ERod, Vazquez - those are heavy hitter foundational players)
Erod is a free agent after this season. JD has an opt-out after this season. Sale has an opt-out after 2022.
 

NYCSox

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^ Flags fly forever as they say and there is no dominant team out there in either league to think the Sox don't have a decent shot at it. I'm all for moving Duran for example for well established player under control (or who might be willing to sign a new deal right away - like Marte or Bryant for example).
 

ehaz

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It's getting harder for me to find the logic not to GFIN.

Here are the facts:

- Sox are - albeit unexpectedly - in first place a few days before the trade deadline
- The have several expiring contracts of core players after the 2022 season (Xander opt out, JD, Eovaldi, ERod, Vazquez - those are heavy hitter foundational players)
- The team clearly has its weaknesses - it needs some help to really be fully championship caliber
- The team is relatively healthy

Given everything above, including the good luck with health, the team might actually be in a position that it might not be in for a while again; mind you 2022 team stands to be superb, but you never know what the injury bug will do; after 2022, there may be another wave of rebuilding, or certainly some big time turnover.

I think we all went into the season seeing it as a rebuilding year. I certainly did, and that's certainly how the media framed it. Given how bad the team was in 2020, it seemed it might take 3-4 years to get back into contention. But ... well, Bloom made some shrewd moves, Cora has provided superb leadership, some players are playing above their mean (or simply improving) and some guys you expected as much from have bounced back.

It's hard to change the framing of the season (or change the framing for your understanding of anything), but maybe it's time do so for the 2021 season. The team is better than expected. It's healthy. It core won't stay in place for long. Maybe now is the time.
I agree with this. You have Xander and Devers under relatively cheap control in their primes for this year and 2022. Then you have the opt-out and Devers is a year away from FA. I don't think they should empty the farm ala Dombrowski but there is not a single guy who should be untouchable.
 

Doc Zero

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It's getting harder for me to find the logic not to GFIN.

Here are the facts:

- Sox are - albeit unexpectedly - in first place a few days before the trade deadline
- The have several expiring contracts of core players after the 2022 season (Xander opt out, JD, Eovaldi, ERod, Vazquez - those are heavy hitter foundational players)
- The team clearly has its weaknesses - it needs some help to really be fully championship caliber
- The team is relatively healthy

Given everything above, including the good luck with health, the team might actually be in a position that it might not be in for a while again; mind you 2022 team stands to be superb, but you never know what the injury bug will do; after 2022, there may be another wave of rebuilding, or certainly some big time turnover.

I think we all went into the season seeing it as a rebuilding year. I certainly did, and that's certainly how the media framed it. Given how bad the team was in 2020, it seemed it might take 3-4 years to get back into contention. But ... well, Bloom made some shrewd moves, Cora has provided superb leadership, some players are playing above their mean (or simply improving) and some guys you expected as much from have bounced back.

It's hard to change the framing of the season (or change the framing for your understanding of anything), but maybe it's time do so for the 2021 season. The team is better than expected. It's healthy. It core won't stay in place for long. Maybe now is the time.
Good post. I think the best thing about being in this serendipitous situation is that you don’t need to make any big, high-stakes moves to GFIN. Even a moderate upgrade at 1B and a stabilizing force in the bullpen for close late-inning situations could be difference-makers, and they’re in a good position to make those moves without shedding too much talent.
 

BaseballJones

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Good post. I think the best thing about being in this serendipitous situation is that you don’t need to make any big, high-stakes moves to GFIN. Even a moderate upgrade at 1B and a stabilizing force in the bullpen for close late-inning situations could be difference-makers, and they’re in a good position to make those moves without shedding too much talent.
Yep, that's right. Modest - but real - upgrade at 1b. Add Sale. Add one more quality reliever. The team should be in very good shape to give it a real shot without sacrificing the future.
 

DeadlySplitter

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Brad Hand is bleh this year. Just blew it against the O's this afternoon. Pass.

I wonder if some middle infield guy is out there that can cover SS for awhile so Xander can get healed? Can be at 2B so Hernandez can go to SS.
 

ehaz

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If they are set with Kike in CF Duran+ for Jose Ramirez to play 2B is really interesting.
That lineup would be incredible. Especially if you went and grabbed a cheap 1B too.

CF - Kike
2B - J-Ram
SS - Xander
3B - Devers
DH - J.D.
LF - Verdugo
1B - Schoop or Cron
RF - Renfroe
C - Vaz/Plawecki
 

nvalvo

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Erod is a free agent after this season. JD has an opt-out after this season. Sale has an opt-out after 2022.
JD does not have an opt out after this season — he had them after 2019 and 2020. Caveat: there is some language about right foot injuries that haven't seemed to be an issue since his Detroit days.

From Cots contracts:
  • 5 years/$110M (2018-22)
    • signed by Boston as a free agent 2/26/18
    • 18:$23.75M, 19:$23.75M, 20:$23.75M, 21:$19.375M, 22:$19.375M
    • may opt out of contract after both 2019 ($2.5M buyout) and 2020 seasons (no buyout)
    • 2021 and 2022 seasons become mutual options if Martinez has a Lisfranc injury or complication to his right foot causing him to be:
      • 1) on the disabled list for 60 days or more in previous season, or
      • 2) on the disabled list for 10 days or more in the previous season and 120 days or more in the two previous seasons combined, or
      • 3) on the disabled list at the end of the previous season and found not able to play at the start of the next season
    • limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 3 clubs annually)
    • declined to exercise right to opt out of contract 11/4/19
 

bosockboy

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JD does not have an opt out after this season — he had them after 2019 and 2020. Caveat: there is some language about right foot injuries that haven't seemed to be an issue since his Detroit days.

From Cots contracts:
  • 5 years/$110M (2018-22)
    • signed by Boston as a free agent 2/26/18
    • 18:$23.75M, 19:$23.75M, 20:$23.75M, 21:$19.375M, 22:$19.375M
    • may opt out of contract after both 2019 ($2.5M buyout) and 2020 seasons (no buyout)
    • 2021 and 2022 seasons become mutual options if Martinez has a Lisfranc injury or complication to his right foot causing him to be:
      • 1) on the disabled list for 60 days or more in previous season, or
      • 2) on the disabled list for 10 days or more in the previous season and 120 days or more in the two previous seasons combined, or
      • 3) on the disabled list at the end of the previous season and found not able to play at the start of the next season
    • limited no-trade protection (may block deals to 3 clubs annually)
    • declined to exercise right to opt out of contract 11/4/19
This is an interesting wrinkle. Spotrac says he has one after this season. Huge implications on which is correct.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/j.d.-martinez-8690/
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is an interesting wrinkle. Spotrac says he has one after this season. Huge implications on which is correct.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/j.d.-martinez-8690/
Spotrac says it derives its details from Cot's (Baseball Prospectus owns Cot's), so I'd assume Cot's has it correct and Spotrac is mislabeling the potential mutual option.

We're now approaching the point where it will be impossible for him to spend 60 days on the IL this season, so an injury would have to happen pretty quickly to trigger anything for this winter (not that anyone wants to see that). But even if Spotrac has it right and it is a free and clear opt-out, I don't believe the market has changed significantly enough that it would be any more advantageous than the last two winters for JD to exercise it.

I think it's pretty safe to say he's a Red Sox through next year unless the team decides otherwise.
 

geoduck no quahog

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Is this site credible: Teamrankings.com ?

They rank the Rays as most likely to win the Division at 95.2 wins with the Red Sox a Wild Card with 93.1 Wins

(Jays: 88 and Yankees: 87.8 - barely beaten out by Oakland at 88.3 wins). They claim the Astros and White Sox have things locked up.

That's 5 AL teams that really need to improve. 3 of them to make the playoffs (Jays, Yankees and A's) and 2 of them to avoid the Wild Card (Rays and Sox).

What's it worth for the Red Sox to avoid the Wild Card? Do you stop there, or keep judging on ability to win the pennant (which no doubt means another great starter beyond Sale...)
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is this site credible: Teamrankings.com ?

They rank the Rays as most likely to win the Division at 95.2 wins with the Red Sox a Wild Card with 93.1 Wins

(Jays: 88 and Yankees: 87.8 - barely beaten out by Oakland at 88.3 wins). They claim the Astros and White Sox have things locked up.

That's 5 AL teams that really need to improve. 3 of them to make the playoffs (Jays, Yankees and A's) and 2 of them to avoid the Wild Card (Rays and Sox).

What's it worth for the Red Sox to avoid the Wild Card? Do you stop there, or keep judging on ability to win the pennant (which no doubt means another great starter beyond Sale...)
The site appears to be linked to betting, so of course their methodology isn't explained. Hard to say how credible it is.

FWIW, Fangraphs currently has the Red Sox projected to win 95 and the Rays 93.

I wouldn't get too worked up about any of it.
 

grimshaw

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Granted we have no idea how Bloom operates when it comes to money, but here are some of the impact players in the upcoming free agent class:

2021/2022
Catcher - Posey
1b - Freeman, Rizzo, Belt
2b - Cesar Hernandez
Multi positions - Bryant
SS - Baez, Correa, Seager, Story
OF - Conforto, Pham, S Marte, Eddie Rosario, Castellanos (opt out)
SP - Syndergaard, Scherzer, Kershaw, Verlander, Lance Lynn, Stroman, Gausman, Kluber, Robbie Ray
RP - Jansen, Hand, Familia, R Iglesias, Kirby Yates

-The guys I bolded are ones I see as potential fits as they are in their prime or could be reasonably priced or had short term.

-I'm going to assume Casas will be the starter by 2023 and Belt would be a great bridge guy and more productive outside of San Fran. He's had health issues and is 33 so maybe he wouldn't get more than 2 seasons.

-I would be shocked if the Sox don't re-sign Bogaerts given the guys who will be available who can name their prices as well. He seems to love it here and didn't try to squeeze every penny.

-Conforto has been awful this season, so maybe his price drops a little or he signs a 1 year deal with a player option so he can still hit free agency by 30.

-I love Castellanos, but if he opts out he'd just be an expensive DH like JD. I hope they keep that spot as a rotation.

-Kirby Yates is the type of guy the Sox can outspend others on but still not go obscenely high.

-I'd want to go big on Gausman, but again, no idea how Bloom operates.

As it relates to the thread, there are clearly some developmental gaps internally, maybe they try to trade for some guys entering arbitration instead of just rentals.
 
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DJnVa

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Don't have to worry about Frazier coming here--he's headed to San Diego.
 

cantor44

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Spotrac says it derives its details from Cot's (Baseball Prospectus owns Cot's), so I'd assume Cot's has it correct and Spotrac is mislabeling the potential mutual option.

We're now approaching the point where it will be impossible for him to spend 60 days on the IL this season, so an injury would have to happen pretty quickly to trigger anything for this winter (not that anyone wants to see that). But even if Spotrac has it right and it is a free and clear opt-out, I don't believe the market has changed significantly enough that it would be any more advantageous than the last two winters for JD to exercise it.

I think it's pretty safe to say he's a Red Sox through next year unless the team decides otherwise.
If the DH is made universal, as it likely will be, JD may have a reason to opt out after this year ....that's 15 more potential suitors.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If the DH is made universal, as it likely will be, JD may have a reason to opt out after this year ....that's 15 more potential suitors.
That and it's just 1 year. I'm guessing he could get more total money than 19.5 if that's the route he wanted to go.
 

BigSoxFan

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Just feels like there are a ton of potential impact guys out there this year. I’ll be pretty disappointed if the Sox don’t land one.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If the DH is made universal, as it likely will be, JD may have a reason to opt out after this year ....that's 15 more potential suitors.
That would have to be made official before he opts out to have an impact, no? And opt-outs generally have to be exercised within a few days of the end of the season. Have we had any indication whatsoever that there's been movement on a new CBA?

edit to add: The current CBA expires on December 1. I'm sure the odds are pretty long on MLB and MLBPA coming to an agreement before Thanksgiving.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Frazier was overrated and the return showed as much.

Merrifield's numbers are on a 4 year decline. Royals waited years too long to cash in on him.
 

JBJ_HOF

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JD can still opt-out after this year, confirmed. It changes to a mutual option if he is hurt to protect the Red Sox.
 

RobertS975

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While we admittedly do not know what Duran will become, are we already putting him into the "untradeable" basket along with others who have been there.... like Donnie Sadler and Casey Fossum?
 

ehaz

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While we admittedly do not know what Duran will become, are we already putting him into the "untradeable" basket along with others who have been there.... like Donnie Sadler and Casey Fossum?
I’d include him in a package for a lot of guys. Just not a rental like Starling Marte or a reliever like Kimbrel. But someone like Jose Ramirez or Luis Castillo? I’d pack his bags myself and throw Jeter Downs in his luggage just for good measure.
 

E5 Yaz

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JBJ_HOF can answer for his own sources, but mlbtraderumors confirmed it as of May 2021 when it previewed league-wide opt outs.
Thanks ... I only asked because I think we all prefer when somebody cites a source instead just making a declarative statement w/o supporting evidence.
 

ehaz

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It’s come up before but I don’t get the love for Whit Merrifield. Why give up a haul for a 32-yo second baseman with a 95 wRC+?
Merrifield strikes me as a guy who was so underrated he quickly became overrated. He’s a very good and versatile player but people talk about him as if he’s prime Ben Zobrist.