I don’t blame them. Who wants to deal with the stress of making a 1st round pick?
Vrabel and Julio Down by the Schoolyard: Titans Get Jones
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Yeah, my point was that you don't drum up a bidding war by planting leaks which are so obvious that any GM with half a brain can see who they've come from. Unless Fontenot has an ulterior motive - e.g., his plan could be to tell Julio "we tried, we really did, but we have to get something approaching fair value, and you're worth much more than the picks we've been getting offered" and then keeping him for another year after all - this just feels terribly clumsy.
The NFL trading rules forbid the sending of cash or paying part of a departing player's future salary. So New England would need to find the cap room to accept the $15.3M guaranteed salary.
They could trade back a bad contract, but the only problem is that the Atlanta is still on the hook for the remaining $23M of amortized signing/option bonuses, so there is a limit to how much of a contract the Falcons could take back. The other option would be for the Pats to make a trade, cut a player, or restructure of one of their other players prior to the trade.
As for a restructuring, the biggest problem doing a pre-trade restructure is that there are limits to the dead cap hit Atlanta could take on. Due to the fact that Jones' 2021 salary is guaranteed, a pre-trade restructure is almost impossible without the Falcons taking on new dead money.
A post-trade restructure is a possibility; the only rules are that a contract can be restructured only once per year, and that prior guarantees must still be paid. I think they can convert some of Jones 2021 salary into a restructure bonus; of course, Jones and his agent would have to agree to restructure, so the Pats would have to give something, like probably adding some 2022/23 salary to the bonus as well.
It is likely that any trade would be conditional on Jones agreeing to a restructure that gives the Pats enough breathing room to open the season. They still need to find some money to initially fit Jones in.
Does anyone know why this is, from a historical basis? I'm not sure who wanted this as part of the structural landscape. The players lose out on some mobility, but also maybe gain some stability (except they can be cut at ~any time, so that stability seems a bit of an illusion) - so I'm not sure if this is something the NFLPA wanted or the owners. (You could tell me it's "just the way the league does it" and chalk it up to some of the inflexibility of the league office, and I could easily imagine that too.)
I guess, secondarily, I've always wondered about the dead-cap hit / acceleration aspect of signing bonuses when it comes to trades in the NFL - it seems like they could have allowed the prorated remaining signing bonuses to transfer along with a trade of a player, but chose not to. This seems to really prevent a lot of potential trades, but there's probably some salary cap circumvention angle to it that I haven't figured out.
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I am becoming convinced this is not only not going to happen, but will likely end up with a trade to an AFC team that we will end up directly competing for a playoff spot against.
There's too many red flags here for me.
- Bill doesn't tend to tie up so much $ into one player, especially at a non QB skill position
- Bill is hard pressed to give up a 1 or even a 2 for a 32 year old
- In 20 years, Bill has made a move for a WR this good exactly once and the price was much better and the player was younger
- Bill does not typically make a move for a player with this much buzz. I can't remember the last time a coveted player was being positioned to New England and they actually pulled the trigger. There may well be instances I am not remembering here but I feel like it would be an extreme minority
Now...yes, the Patriots went against type BIG so far this offseason, and for that reason, if Bill really is trying to position the team for one more run in the next ~3 years before he sails off into the sunset, maybe they go against type one more time here.
But for me, personally, I am just becoming more and more confident by the day he is going somewhere else and probably someone under the radar. Not sure where. The Jets have money next couple years. So do the Bengals. Broncos too.
There's too many red flags here for me.
- Bill doesn't tend to tie up so much $ into one player, especially at a non QB skill position
- Bill is hard pressed to give up a 1 or even a 2 for a 32 year old
- In 20 years, Bill has made a move for a WR this good exactly once and the price was much better and the player was younger
- Bill does not typically make a move for a player with this much buzz. I can't remember the last time a coveted player was being positioned to New England and they actually pulled the trigger. There may well be instances I am not remembering here but I feel like it would be an extreme minority
Now...yes, the Patriots went against type BIG so far this offseason, and for that reason, if Bill really is trying to position the team for one more run in the next ~3 years before he sails off into the sunset, maybe they go against type one more time here.
But for me, personally, I am just becoming more and more confident by the day he is going somewhere else and probably someone under the radar. Not sure where. The Jets have money next couple years. So do the Bengals. Broncos too.
It's theoretically supposed to keep the playing field level so that teams are not tempted to buy or sell players for cash considerations. Some of it is also the way it's always been done; it wasn't that long ago when trades, with the exception of draft day trades, were few and far between in the NFL. Liberalizing trade rules just hasn't been a priority.
If signing bonus accounting was transferable, it would allow a big market team to pay a big upfront bonus to the player they want, and then essentially sell that player to another big market team down the road. The idea was to force all teams to basically own their signing bonus commitments so that the playing field between big and small market teams remains level.
What Atlanta left out of the leak that they had a "first round pick" offer was that it was from a team in the XFL.
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I mean... in the last 20 years how many WRs as good as Julio Jones have been traded at all... 3?
I get the thought process, but at the same time, you can't read much into history because it's a fairly unique situation. The Patriots haven't had a year where they have little money tied up in QB since... ever? ( I was gonna say 2002, but actually they had Bledsoe's hit that year.) Bill has been willing to spend on elite talents at times when he has money, he has been willing to trade for talent at times (a 1st and 3rd for Cooks and a 4th comes to mind), not sure there's been a time he's combined both, but it's a rare situation that it is an option.
Doesn't he have 3/$38 left on deal, at least for acquiring team? We just gave Henry and Smith big deals in that general neighborhood.
Maybe you can say we won't give out another one, but I don't think the money itself is a thing.
The FA class should dissuade us from the whole "BB doesn't do that argument" for a long time.
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Here come the leaks from the other side.
View: https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1399723006189092864
View: https://twitter.com/CharlesRobinson/status/1399723006189092864
As one of 3 I think Raider fans on here, I’ll be very shocked if it isn’t Vegas. Jones is the most Chucky wheelhouse player imaginable; he loves veterans and he was able to keep Brown and Rice extremely productive into their late thirties. He’s the perfect piece to complete our offense and I’m guessing we will overpay a bit.
I don't think I want him if a new contract is necessary. Next year at 11.5 is arguably the single most appealing part of the whole rumor.
Is there a way to make that work for both sides? Front load? More bonus, less cap? Etc
I'm open too giving him an extra year if he's willing to lessen the hit
The bonus money prorates onto the cap over the life of the contract, so that wouldn't really help the cap hit out. The one way you could help is to add dummy years to the end of the deal to spread out cap hits, but that just creates dead cap space in those years. But, the cap should continue to go up. You'd probably have to guarantee a lot of the money to make him happy as well.
What do people think it says - if anything - that no trade has been executed for Julio Jones? Given all the smoke in the run-up to post-June 1, I lean more toward ATL not getting close to what they want for him, as opposed to multiple teams going back and forth, upping the compensation. I think eventually Seattle will pull the trigger.
It says that the Falcons must have had a very late first rounder on the table for JJ.
Can they see the future? (Nobody knows which teams will be picking late or early in the first round, or indeed any round, in April 2022.)
I was poking fun at "reports" of a first round pick that were floating around recently. They obviously don't have a first round pick on the table for him. Agreed on not knowing where a pick will end up, but I think you could bucket teams out into a high, mid and low grouping with a decent confidence interval.
I just want this Julio thing to be over so I can stop reading vague ass tweets like this:
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JosinaAnderson/status/1400632323595452416
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JosinaAnderson/status/1400632323595452416
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Any idea how the Panthers and Broncos worked around that in the TBW deal?
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/panthers-trade-teddy-bridgewater-to-broncos-for-6th-round-pick-on-eve-of-the-2021-nfl-draft/
If the player was a willing participant in the scheme, you could restructure the player’s contract to shift salary into signing bonus, which would be paid by the selling team immediately prior to the trade. But I never heard any report that TBW facilitated the Panthers-Broncos trade, so I assume they found a different workaround.
Teams generally have it in player contracts that they can convert salary to bonus without player approval. But in this case, the changes were substantial enough that they must have had Bridgewater's buy-in. It looks like he took a reduction in salary in exchange for getting to hit free agency a year early.
PSA: do not pay attention to Josina Anderson. She is the queen of “I know something you don’t know”.
And will drip out her "information" in a series of tweets to keep her engagement high.
I was thinking more about why Julio would be such a gem for the Patriots in particular. With Julio and Agholor on the same team running 12 you are putting the defense in even more of a bind because of their speed and downfield prowess. You will likely in that scenario see a lot more 2 high safety looks or looks with more downfield defenders in coverage, so cover 2 (varied under), Quarters, cover 6 (2 guys quarter, 1 guy playing a half). They faced zone the 10th highest rate in the NFL and were the least efficient vs it. They were blitzed the most, 41% of the time. I can't find it anywhere but I think they saw the highest percent of Cover 0 or Cover 1 in the league. Off-hand I can remember quite a few cover 0 blitzes. It's obvious why - their WRs couldn't beat man, no one but Meyers got consistent separation and the QB wasn't good at knowing who to throw to when space opened up. Now some of those problems are taken care of with Agholor, Bourne, Henry, and Smith vs the dreck they had last year but no one but Agholor has downhill speed. It's easier to load the box or stick to a single high coverage when you are only concerned about 1 guy getting vertical and behind his man. You could still play this team single high, load the box, and flood the middle of the field, MOFC. You add Julio and now I think you won’t play nearly as much single high. Agholor and Jones are going to command safety help. The ripple effects from signing Julio would impact the run looks. You could see lighter boxes and more advantageous situations on first and second downs in 12.
The way the team is built with good TEs, RBs, and an OL already in place a guy like Julio suddenly let’s you have more favorable matchups everywhere else. Is this true for every team adding a stud WR? Sure - every team would benefit from having him but with the Patriots it plays into being able to run the ball even more effectively and if they do load the box or go single high you should have a 1:1 deep with either Agholor or Julio. Play actions vs single high looks could consistently turn into the chunk plays they’ve been missing the last couple of years. Forcing opponents to play more deeper zone or 2 high man concepts has its advantages when you want to run the ball and they want to.
For them Julio is a final key that unlocks an offense that should be able to manufacture mismatch after mismatch AND take advantage of it.
The way the team is built with good TEs, RBs, and an OL already in place a guy like Julio suddenly let’s you have more favorable matchups everywhere else. Is this true for every team adding a stud WR? Sure - every team would benefit from having him but with the Patriots it plays into being able to run the ball even more effectively and if they do load the box or go single high you should have a 1:1 deep with either Agholor or Julio. Play actions vs single high looks could consistently turn into the chunk plays they’ve been missing the last couple of years. Forcing opponents to play more deeper zone or 2 high man concepts has its advantages when you want to run the ball and they want to.
For them Julio is a final key that unlocks an offense that should be able to manufacture mismatch after mismatch AND take advantage of it.
Nice write up, thanks for all that you do here.
A followup question (I'll hang up and listen): No snark intended, doesn't all of this pretty much fall apart if the defense doesn't respect the QBs ability to get the ball to Julio more than 10 yards down field?
Want a weird stat? Cam averaged more average air yards on completions last season than Rodgers, Brees, Herbert, Rivers, Roethlisberger, and Bridgewater.
I really don't get the "Cam can't throw deep" stuff... it was the thing he was best at last year despite not having a real deep threat
I think Cam can definitely throw deep. I have little to no confidence that he (or the receivers) have a realistic idea where it will go (beyond deep). I know that is harsh, and honestly also know it isn't fair/true. But, I do think that he requires receivers with large receiving radius' to be effective - which frankly IS Julio Jones, right?
I'm just spoiled I guess - I've spent the better part of 20 years watching a QB fine tune/refine his motion in every way possible, I'm struggling to enjoy a QB that has injuries that prevent him from being his optimal self.
I'm just spoiled I guess - I've spent the better part of 20 years watching a QB fine tune/refine his motion in every way possible, I'm struggling to enjoy a QB that has injuries that prevent him from being his optimal self.
Yes, it's weird - so I'll bite: he must also have a ridiculously small number of completions compared to each of them?
Edit: it must also imply that the others are more adept at setting the receivers up for more RAC?
View: https://twitter.com/SamHoppen/status/1400175115321720833
He led the league in deep accuracy. Cam didn't throw deep a ton, and had no deep threats, but when he did his throws were on target. It's the easiest throw for him because he HAS to step into it cleanly to generate the power so he doesn't end up with funky footwork. If Cam threw deep on every play he'd be an elite QB... it's the short stuff he sucks at because he messes up his feet.
I'm glad I acknowledged up front that my joke wasn't true. lol
Throwing deep isn't the offense the team runs though - which is part of why I don't know if the Jones money can be justified.
Next year's offense:
Pound the run, throw screens to the backs/tight ends, and throw deep to Hall and Julio.
Just to be fair, I think Cam only led the league because of his overall small sample size. Some much better deep ball throwers had lower %, but a much higher number of attempts.
https://sportsinfosolutionsblog.com/2020/11/12/who-have-been-the-best-qbs-at-throwing-long-passes-in-2020/
Yeah, he had low attempts, and I don't know that he is really the best deep thrower in the league, but the point is more... he was good when he threw deep last year, even without deep threats, and in the past he's been near the top of the league as well. If there is one area of the passing game he's always excelled it's throwing deep. His arm isn't what it was, but even with that caveat, more players who can create separation for downfield throws would probably be good for him
Yeah, that is probably fair. I mean Cam has never been a great “passer” at least compared to other superstar QBs, but his deep ball has always been one of his strengths.
Everything falls apart with poor QB play. Not being snarky but it’s hard to consistently overcome bad QB play. I think Cam would be capable of being league average if you gave him Julio, Agholor, Henry, Smith, and White/Harris to throw to. But sure there is risk he sucks, Mac struggles too, and poor QB sinks this club. You can’t count on Hoyer and Stidham is a long shot. Stidham had a nice day of practices. It would be nice if he could be a factor. There’s real bottom risk at QB which can fuck your whole season up. There’s also potential that someone steps up and gives them 15-20th ranked QB kind of play which would make them competitive for the playoffs. Mac Jones has good vertical accuracy from 10-30 yards FWIW.
I love how incremental Julio could be for this team given the rest of the roster.
In fairness I don’t see any point in his tenure Bill makes that trade. He just doesn’t believe an offense needs elite playmakers at WR unless they come at an absolute bargain