Vrabel and Julio Down by the Schoolyard: Titans Get Jones

Really? I'd love to have him, but I'd also still have Agholor as their number one wide receiver if they obtained Jones tomorrow. He's 32, that's like 91 in wide receiver years.
This is an insanely bad take. Julio is still balling when he's on the field; the niggling injuries he's had *could* portend a future drop in performance, but they haven't appreciably done so yet. And if you think he's not better than Nelson Agholor...yikes.
 

BigSoxFan

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This is an insanely bad take. Julio is still balling when he's on the field; the niggling injuries he's had *could* portend a future drop in performance, but they haven't appreciably done so yet. And if you think he's not better than Nelson Agholor...yikes.
Yeah, I'm legitimately confused by that position. He was really good last year. He just had a bum hammy. Was on pace for a 90/1,370 season. And, more importantly, Pats don't even need and/or can't support that kind of production from a WR1 anyways. Dude is going to slow down soon but he's a HOF level talent so even reduced Julio is still going to be better than our alternative in most, if not all, cases.

In his age 32 season in 2009, Moss put up 83/1,264/13. If they got Julio, I'm sure the practical commitment would be no more than 2-3 years.

Imagine formations where you have Julio/Agholor running deep routes while Jonnu/Henry/Bourne work the middle of the field as White leaks out of the backfield. At some point in 2021, the Pats are going to give the keys to Mac and having that kind of talent would be incredibly helpful.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Haven't been terrible? He's borderline been better outdoors than in. It's a wash at worst.

Outdoors: 14.5 YPA, 64.3 catch %, 9.30 Y/target, 6.9 catches/game, 99.8 Yds/game, 25 TD in 49 games
Indoors (ballparking because of how Pro Football Reference splits out dome vs retroroof): 15.7 YPA, 64.4 catch %, 10.1 yds/target, 5.9 catches/game, 94 yds/game, 35 TD in 84 games
Sure, if you look at in a vacuum with no other information, but I think you would agree playing outdoors in Miami in October is a very different experience than playing outdoors in New York or Buffalo or New England in the last few months of the season. A good chunk of his outdoor games have been played at Carolina and Tampa, which isn't exactly the northeast, weather wise:

Last year, he played 2 games outdoors:

One was at GB, 4 catches, 32 yards.
One was at Carolina, 7 for 137 yards

In 2019, he played 3 games outdoors:

At Carolina, 6 catches, 91 yards
At San Fran, 13 for 134
At Tampa, 7 for 78 yards

In 2018, he played 7 games outdoors:

At Philly (game 1 of the season, 81 degrees at kickoff), 10 catches for 169 yards
At Pitt: 5 for 62
At Washington, 7 for 121 yards
At Cleveland, 7 for 107 yards
At Green Bay, 8 for 106 yards
At Carolina, 4 for 28 yards
At Tampa, 9 for 138 yards

In 2017, he played 6 games outdoors
At Chicago: 4 catches for 66 yards (week 1)
At New England: 9 for 99 yards, 1 td (4 catches and 32 yards, and the TD on Atlanta's final drive, down 23-0)
At NYJ, 3 for 74 yards
At Carolina, 6 for 118 yards
At Seattle: 5 for 71
At Tampa: 3 for 54

I don't have time to go a lot further back right now, but he has only played a handful of games in even mildly bad weather. The Green Bay game was 25 degrees, but they got blown out in that one and I think it was the Redskins game that year that was also below 40. Almost every other game I've looked at, even in bad weather stadiums has been at or over 55 degrees.

Don't get me wrong, I love Julio Jones and would give a lot of my own money to see him play in Foxboro, but I'm not so sure I want to be paying him 15mil per year during his age 34 season and watching him work the sidelines in 30 degree rain. It's just a different animal than sprinting down the field in the NFC South week after week in November and December. if they get him, I'll be extremely happy. But I imagine at some point, we'll be like, uggh, this is a rough end of the road....
 

tims4wins

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Sure, if you look at in a vacuum with no other information, but I think you would agree playing outdoors in Miami in October is a very different experience than playing outdoors in New York or Buffalo or New England in the last few months of the season. A good chunk of his outdoor games have been played at Carolina and Tampa, which isn't exactly the northeast, weather wise:

Last year, he played 2 games outdoors:

One was at GB, 4 catches, 32 yards.
One was at Carolina, 7 for 137 yards

In 2019, he played 3 games outdoors:

At Carolina, 6 catches, 91 yards
At San Fran, 13 for 134
At Tampa, 7 for 78 yards

In 2018, he played 7 games outdoors:

At Philly (game 1 of the season, 81 degrees at kickoff), 10 catches for 169 yards
At Pitt: 5 for 62
At Washington, 7 for 121 yards
At Cleveland, 7 for 107 yards
At Green Bay, 8 for 106 yards
At Carolina, 4 for 28 yards
At Tampa, 9 for 138 yards

In 2017, he played 6 games outdoors
At Chicago: 4 catches for 66 yards (week 1)
At New England: 9 for 99 yards, 1 td (4 catches and 32 yards, and the TD on Atlanta's final drive, down 23-0)
At NYJ, 3 for 74 yards
At Carolina, 6 for 118 yards
At Seattle: 5 for 71
At Tampa: 3 for 54

I don't have time to go a lot further back right now, but he has only played a handful of games in even mildly bad weather. The Green Bay game was 25 degrees, but they got blown out in that one and I think it was the Redskins game that year that was also below 40. Almost every other game I've looked at, even in bad weather stadiums has been at or over 55 degrees.

Don't get me wrong, I love Julio Jones and would give a lot of my own money to see him play in Foxboro, but I'm not so sure I want to be paying him 15mil per year during his age 34 season and watching him work the sidelines in 30 degree rain. It's just a different animal than sprinting down the field in the NFC South week after week in November and December. if they get him, I'll be extremely happy. But I imagine at some point, we'll be like, uggh, this is a rough end of the road....
Could be the QB too…
 

Cellar-Door

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Really? I'd love to have him, but I'd also still have Agholor as their number one wide receiver if they obtained Jones tomorrow. He's 32, that's like 91 in wide receiver years.
This is insane, Jones played 9 games last year, maybe 3 of them fully healthy and he was still a monster. Health is the concern for him, when healthy he's still one of the very best WRs in football.
 
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Jungleland

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Don't get me wrong, I love Julio Jones and would give a lot of my own money to see him play in Foxboro, but I'm not so sure I want to be paying him 15mil per year during his age 34 season and watching him work the sidelines in 30 degree rain. It's just a different animal than sprinting down the field in the NFC South week after week in November and December. if they get him, I'll be extremely happy. But I imagine at some point, we'll be like, uggh, this is a rough end of the road....
For the record I'm with you at least in part (I'm still hesitant overall as I said yesterday), but I'm not as concerned about the 34 season. A lot of players hit the cliff at this point, but it's not as though elite receivers playing well through 34 is entirely outlandish. Funny given their Patriot experiences but Galloway and Reggie Wayne both put up excellent seasons at 34. Fitz, too. If you think he'll be healthy this year, it's probably also worth gambling the 11.5 to play him/7.5 million to cut him of 2023 cap space. He's got room to decline and still be worth it.
 

Captaincoop

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Yeah, I'm legitimately confused by that position. He was really good last year. He just had a bum hammy. Was on pace for a 90/1,370 season. And, more importantly, Pats don't even need and/or can't support that kind of production from a WR1 anyways. Dude is going to slow down soon but he's a HOF level talent so even reduced Julio is still going to be better than our alternative in most, if not all, cases.

In his age 32 season in 2009, Moss put up 83/1,264/13. If they got Julio, I'm sure the practical commitment would be no more than 2-3 years.

Imagine formations where you have Julio/Agholor running deep routes while Jonnu/Henry/Bourne work the middle of the field as White leaks out of the backfield. At some point in 2021, the Pats are going to give the keys to Mac and having that kind of talent would be incredibly helpful.
He'd be a nice addition, but he is 32. Randy Moss was an all-world Pro Bowler at 30, and completely done at 33. It is not an old man's game at that position. There's a good chance last year was the beginning of the end, not just an injury-plagued season. It doesn't mean he's not worth rolling the dice on, but you can't just assume you're getting the Jones we played against in the 2017 Super Bowl.
 

BigSoxFan

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He'd be a nice addition, but he is 32. Randy Moss was an all-world Pro Bowler at 30, and completely done at 33. It is not an old man's game at that position. There's a good chance last year was the beginning of the end, not just an injury-plagued season. It doesn't mean he's not worth rolling the dice on, but you can't just assume you're getting the Jones we played against in the 2017 Super Bowl.
Does anybody really assume that? We know prime Julio has likely left the building but, with that said, he was really good last year in 2020 at age 31 and is unlikely to fall off the proverbial cliff in his age 32 season. An age 26 Julio would never be available or would cost a king's ransom so acquiring a 32 year-old Julio for a 2nd/Harry or whatever seems like a perfectly reasonable compromise.

End of the day, the value of Julio for the Pats would be more about pulling coverage away from everyone else than pure production. His presence would open things up for everyone. The question of whether or not Cam could get him the ball is a valid one but Cam actually didn't suck too much on the deep throws last year, IIRC.
 

Cellar-Door

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He'd be a nice addition, but he is 32. Randy Moss was an all-world Pro Bowler at 30, and completely done at 33. It is not an old man's game at that position. There's a good chance last year was the beginning of the end, not just an injury-plagued season. It doesn't mean he's not worth rolling the dice on, but you can't just assume you're getting the Jones we played against in the 2017 Super Bowl.
Is Moss really a good comp though? Moss even in his prime was an up and down player whose rep was that he wasn't really that interested in the consistent work it took, and that's why the most talented WR ever isn't the best ever.

Injuries are certainly a concern, more so with guys in their 30s, but... performance decline? There isn't any real evidence of it, and when you talk about elite WRs, many aged just fine.
Rice had arguably 2 of his best seasons at 32 and 33, got hurt at 34 and was still really good at 35.
Fitz's 32-34 age seasons were better than his 29-31
TO was having a strong age 32 then got hurt, came back to put up excellent age 33 and 34 seasons, and was still good at 35
Bruce... great at 32, very good but battled injuries at 33, came back strong at 34
Harrison... great 32-34
Wayne... maybe a bit below his pre-30 form, but still a top WR ages 32-34
Johnson... strong 32... declined at 33 and 34, but still pretty good
Fryar... 32 and 35 were arguably his 2 best seasons, 33-34 were very good too
Carter... ridiculously good well into his 30s
Holt... counterpoint, he was basically done at 33

I'd argue that there is more evidence of great WRs continuing to be excellent well into their 30s than there is evidence of guys just declining precipitously.

Yeah is he likely to be the best WR in football.... probably not. Is he likely to be the best WR the Patriots have had since Moss.... yes.
 

snowmanny

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Well a second-rounder from the Jags in 2022 and Shenault probably (certainly?) trumps whatever else they could get anywhere else. I am trying to understand why the Jags would do that since I have a tough time seeing them as a playoff team this year. I mean I don't see that division as any great shakes but still having a lot of trouble seeing the Jags making it to second place this year, and this would be a trade for this year.

Ed: I mean, unless urban Meyer is an idiot.
 

Cellar-Door

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You've picked a few counter examples over 30 years.

Look at the top 20 receivers in football right now. How many are over 30?
I mean... I picked from a list of elite WRs. Julio Jones is an all-time elite WR, you don't compare him to mediocre guys.

As to top 20... there are usually a couple of 30+ guys in the top 20 every year.
 
Well a second-rounder from the Jags in 2022 and Shenault probably (certainly?) trumps whatever else they could get anywhere else. I am trying to understand why the Jags would do that since I have a tough time seeing them as a playoff team this year. I mean I don't see that division as any great shakes but still having a lot of trouble seeing the Jags making it to second place this year, and this would be a trade for this year.
Would having Julio as a target help accelerate Trevor Lawrence's development? Would Julio still be a viable target for Lawrence in 2022 and perhaps 2023? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then I think the trade would make sense for Jacksonville; it isn't like they're short of cap space.

(Whether Julio would be excited by a trade to Jacksonville is another story - if he says he wants to win, the Jags probably wouldn't be a step in the right direction. Not that he has any say in the matter, but the Falcons might want to be seen to do one of their best-ever players right; if so, that would certainly increase New England's chances of getting him.)
 

DJnVa

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31468244/predicting-15-post-june-1-deadline-nfl-deals-including-julio-jones-trade-richard-sherman-signing-more

Bill Barnwell predicts that any Julio trade will come down to the Pats and Jags as the most likely suitors, with the proposed trade being Julio to Jacksonville for a 2nd rounder in 2022 and Laviska Shenault Jr. (I could probably live with that as a Falcons fan.)
His reasoning for the Pats not making the deal is that BB was burned by Sanu. I don't think that plays into BB's thinking at all.
 

BusRaker

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You've picked a few counter examples over 30 years.

Look at the top 20 receivers in football right now. How many are over 30?
Julio for one.

I'm not sure if the indoor / outdoor thing is really a thing aside from kicking. These guys get PUMPED before games. Perhaps it's tougher for a wide receiver to play in a dome with cornerbacks able to cover better. This from
https://www.sportsbettingstats.com/nfl/football-weather

"However, conditions that are wet or snowy will actually help the offense rather then the defense more then muddy conditions."

Well that's a discussion for another time. If Cam's the QB do we really need someone stretching the field? Remember Mac at his pro day with BB's frustration as he kept overthrowing deep routes?

I say spend the money on OL depth
 

snowmanny

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Would having Julio as a target help accelerate Trevor Lawrence's development? Would Julio still be a viable target for Lawrence in 2022 and perhaps 2023? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then I think the trade would make sense for Jacksonville; it isn't like they're short of cap space.
I doubt having Jones this year would have much impact on Lawrence's long-term development. if the goal is 2022 and 2023 you can probably get Jones or equivalent for less after this season. The issue isn't salary cap it is last year's and next year's second round picks. But who knows?
 

Euclis20

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31468244/predicting-15-post-june-1-deadline-nfl-deals-including-julio-jones-trade-richard-sherman-signing-more

Bill Barnwell predicts that any Julio trade will come down to the Pats and Jags as the most likely suitors, with the proposed trade being Julio to Jacksonville for a 2nd rounder in 2022 and Laviska Shenault Jr. (I could probably live with that as a Falcons fan.)
I can't read the article, but considering his age (and the quote on his phone call with Sharpe), he'll want to go to a title contender. How on earth does JAX qualify in the next 1-3 years? As great as Lawrence may end up being he doesn't have the time to wait on a rookie QB.
 

Jungleland

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If he's absolutely getting traded no matter what, it could be a lot worse than a 2nd and Shenault. I don't think I'd want to give up the equivalent. And yeah Jax is probably far enough away that the timeline doesn't really make sense, but the AFC South isn't a murderer's row. I wouldn't want to go there if I were Julio, but it wouldn't be the worst overpay of the offseason from the Jaguars' perspective.
 

CoolPapaLaSchelle

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I caught the tail end of Bill Polian on NFL radio. The salinity of his tears has not diminished over the years. He started by excoriating Michael Holley's report that Jones was intrigued by playing for the Pats. He said Holley didn't know anything and had zero knowledge of what Julio wanted or what was going to happen. In the next sentence, he said the league needs to investigate the Patriots for tampering. Presumably if there is a Hall of Fame for cognitive dissonance he is a member of that, too.
 

Jimbodandy

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I caught the tail end of Bill Polian on NFL radio. The salinity of his tears has not diminished over the years. He started by excoriating Michael Holley's report that Jones was intrigued by playing for the Pats. He said Holley didn't know anything and had zero knowledge of what Julio wanted or what was going to happen. In the next sentence, he said the league needs to investigate the Patriots for tampering. Presumably if there is a Hall of Fame for cognitive dissonance he is a member of that, too.
That's awesome. Good to know that somewhere Bill Polian is miserable.
 

Ed Hillel

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Jones is reportedly interested in playing with Cam Newton. Will that have any affect on A) Newton's playing time and B) Jone's attitude if/when Newton is no longer starting?
Well, he says he wants to play with Cam, but he also says he wants to win. If he comes here, something will have to give.
 

Seels

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If you're Jones why accept a trade to Jacksonville? Jacksonville is likely in contention for the first overall next year as well unless Lawrence is probowl tier. That roster is garbage.

I don't know I have a hard time feeling too bad for these players who want out of a bad situation when their ridiculous contract is one of the reasons for the situation. Jones was great, will he be in the future, at 32? I can count on one hand the amount of receivers who played their age 32-34 seasons anywhere near as good as their 29-31 seasons.
 

BaseballJones

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Julio is an absolute stud. Anyone who wouldn't want him is crazy. Now the price tag...that might be problematic. But in terms of a football fit, omg sign me up.
 

Jerry’s Curl

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https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/31468244/predicting-15-post-june-1-deadline-nfl-deals-including-julio-jones-trade-richard-sherman-signing-more

Bill Barnwell predicts that any Julio trade will come down to the Pats and Jags as the most likely suitors, with the proposed trade being Julio to Jacksonville for a 2nd rounder in 2022 and Laviska Shenault Jr. (I could probably live with that as a Falcons fan.)
That would be a terrible trade for Jacksonville. Shenault looked impressive as a rookie with arguably the worst QB play in the league.
 
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mauf

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Would having Julio as a target help accelerate Trevor Lawrence's development? Would Julio still be a viable target for Lawrence in 2022 and perhaps 2023? If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then I think the trade would make sense for Jacksonville; it isn't like they're short of cap space.

(Whether Julio would be excited by a trade to Jacksonville is another story - if he says he wants to win, the Jags probably wouldn't be a step in the right direction. Not that he has any say in the matter, but the Falcons might want to be seen to do one of their best-ever players right; if so, that would certainly increase New England's chances of getting him.)
Realistically, JAX’s window is probably 2023-25. By then, JJ will almost certainly be overpaid, and they’ll be without the services of whomever they would have chosen with what will presumably be the 40th pick or thereabouts in the 2022 draft. So you’d really have to believe that JJ’s presence will make Lawrence a better QB in the long run for that deal to make sense. I just don’t see it.

I’m assuming the $7.5m dead-cap hit to cut JJ after 2022 would still apply to his new team. If it doesn’t, it’s a close call — but I think it’s still a better deal for another team than it is for the Jags. Almost no one on the 2020 roster is going to be part of the next good Jags team; a 2nd round pick obviously isn’t assured of amounting to anything, but they have a lot of holes to fill over the next couple years and really can’t afford to give up early picks for guys who don’t figure to be part of the future.
 

Ed Hillel

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I also want to quickly mention that what Shannon Sharpe did was extremely unprofessional and shitty. Julio was very likely under the impression that was a private conversation, and Sharpe put both Julio and the Falcons in a really bad position. That show is obviously incredibly successful, so nothing with happen to Sharpe, but if he was on the four letter network, pretty good chance he'd have been suspended at the very least.
 

BigSoxFan

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On PFT, Chris Simms' source tells him that two teams on JJ's radar are the Patriots and the Titans. The Titans make a ton of sense pairing him with AJ Brown and Josh Reynolds with that running game.
Over the cap shows the Titans with only $3.6M in 2021 cap space ($15.9M for Pats) so they would need to maneuver a bit to fit Julio.
 

Cellar-Door

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Over the cap shows the Titans with only $3.6M in 2021 cap space ($15.9M for Pats) so they would need to maneuver a bit to fit Julio.
They have a lot of easy restructure options though, Tannehill, Byard and Lewan all jump out as pretty easy moves.
 

BigSoxFan

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They have a lot of easy restructure options though, Tannehill, Byard and Lewan all jump out as pretty easy moves.
Ah, good to know. Sounds like it would purely be a comp discussion with Atlanta. I think Julio would make a lot of sense for either team.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Is Moss really a good comp though? Moss even in his prime was an up and down player whose rep was that he wasn't really that interested in the consistent work it took, and that's why the most talented WR ever isn't the best ever.

Injuries are certainly a concern, more so with guys in their 30s, but... performance decline? There isn't any real evidence of it, and when you talk about elite WRs, many aged just fine.
Rice had arguably 2 of his best seasons at 32 and 33, got hurt at 34 and was still really good at 35.
Fitz's 32-34 age seasons were better than his 29-31
TO was having a strong age 32 then got hurt, came back to put up excellent age 33 and 34 seasons, and was still good at 35
Bruce... great at 32, very good but battled injuries at 33, came back strong at 34
Harrison... great 32-34
Wayne... maybe a bit below his pre-30 form, but still a top WR ages 32-34
Johnson... strong 32... declined at 33 and 34, but still pretty good
Fryar... 32 and 35 were arguably his 2 best seasons, 33-34 were very good too
Carter... ridiculously good well into his 30s
Holt... counterpoint, he was basically done at 33

I'd argue that there is more evidence of great WRs continuing to be excellent well into their 30s than there is evidence of guys just declining precipitously.

Yeah is he likely to be the best WR in football.... probably not. Is he likely to be the best WR the Patriots have had since Moss.... yes.
Back to my point, how many of those guys spent their early-mid 30's catching a significant number of footballs in sub freezing weather outdoors?

Rice was playing in Cali.
Fitz is in Arizona
TO went to play in a dome in Dallas
Bruce dome
Harrison dome
Wayne dome
Johnson dome
Carter dome

Irving Fryar is the outlier here, playing in Philly in his later years, but the northeast is where older receives go to die. There are a lot more Andre Reeds, Eric Moulds, Randy Moss', Jordy Nelsons, Pierre Garcon's, DeSean Jackson's, Alshon Jeffery's and Brandon Marshall's who found themselves in difficult weather later in their careers and fell apart, than there are Marvin Harrisons or Chris Carters. There does appear to be a place for slot guys in bad weather, who rely on agility more than downfield speed, who are able to succeed a bit later, but I stand by the fact that Julio Jones playing receiver for the Pats will not be the same guy that played for the Falcons on the turf in a climate controlled environment or when he did play outdoors, it was basically also in climate controlled environments (I tried to go back a ways, but I think Julio has played in 2 games in the past 4-5 years that were below 55 degrees).

Since 2009, when Randy Moss finished 5th in receiving yards, here are the AFC East Wide Receivers who finished in the top 10 in receiving yards:

Stefon Diggs last year led the NFL
DaVonta Parker was 8th in 2019 (playing in Miami)
Jarvis Landry was 10th in 2016 (playing in Miami)
Brandon Marshall was 4th in 2015
Welker did it a couple times, playing out of the slot.

That's it folks, that's the entire list. 2 guys in Miami, one guy out of the slot, a 27 year old stud, and a 31 year old (Marshall).

Obviously, there are plenty of reasons for this, everyone else's QB's sucked, the Pats used slot guys and tight ends, etc., but until we actually see an aging wide receiver light it up playing through November, December and January in shit weather, I'm not going to be a true believer. That said, it ain't my money, so I'll be happy if they bring in Julio. Just his presence helps everyone else if he can stay on the field. I'm just not sure it's the best use of the money (haven't looked at WR choices out there next year in FA). I feel like between Bourne, Jonnu, Agholor, Henry, James White, etc.), the Pats have solidified the receiving options at this point, and that money will look really good filling some other holes.
 

OnTheBlack

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Eh... the predictive variable there isn’t “northeast” it’s “aging.” Plenty of stud receivers have lit it up up north. Diggs being the latest example. Our own Moss. Davonte Adam’s in Green Bay. TO with Philly. I could go on. A good receiver is a good receiver anywhere. Unless there is data that shows players age more poorly in cold weather climates I’m not seeing the thesis there.

The concern with Julio is that he’s aging, not that he’s going north, which is of course a large factor to consider.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Eh... the predictive variable there isn’t “northeast” it’s “aging.” Plenty of stud receivers have lit it up up north. Diggs being the latest example. Our own Moss. Davonte Adam’s in Green Bay. TO with Philly. I could go on. A good receiver is a good receiver anywhere. Unless there is data that shows players age more poorly in cold weather climates I’m not seeing the thesis there.

The concern with Julio is that he’s aging, not that he’s going north, which is of course a large factor to consider.
Did you guys read my post? I actually talked about those guys. All of them.

In case I wasn't clear, that isn't part of the thesis, it literally is the thesis.

Receivers that play in domes or in warm weather seem to play a lot better in their mid 30's than guys that find themselves playing in shit weather at that age. Stefon Diggs is 27. He'd be a stud anywhere right now. Adams is 28. Same thing.

If the discussion was about getting a 28 year old Julio Jones, there is no discussion. You get him, for almost any cost. But he's going to make about 40mil over the course of his age 32,33 and 34 seasons. Right now, we don't even know if we have a QB that can get him the ball, and we just spent a ton of money on that side of the ball, at the receiver and tight end positions. I think that money is better spent elsewhere.

Yes, Andre Reed, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Pierre Garcon, Eric Moulds, Alshon Jeffery, etc. were all good/great receivers playing in bad weather environments, until they turned about 32 years old, which is exactly the point I'm making. Terrell Owens was a great receiver, but when he turned 32, he moved to a dome in Dallas. I'm sure someone can find an exception to the rule, and show me a receiver that played in the type of weather we have here in New England late in the season (and more importantly, in the playoffs) after age 32, but they will be the exception to the rule. Whereas, there are literally a couple dozen guys like Harrison, Holt, Rice, TO, Wayne, etc. that played well into their mid 30's, but did it where it is much easier to play in that weather.

In the snow bowl in 2001, who is more valuable to winning that game? Someone like Jermaine Wiggins or guys with agility and lower centers of gravity, that can move around on the snow like Patten and Troy Brown, or a 6'3" guy who plays on the outside? Do folks think BB hasn't recognized this through the years, or does everyone think its a coincidence that this team has relied on tight ends, running backs and small slot-type receivers for the better part of 20 years, with the exception of the Moss years.
 
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SeoulSoxFan

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If the discussion was about getting a 28 year old Julio Jones, there is no discussion. You get him, for almost any cost. But he's going to make about 40mil over the course of his age 32,33 and 34 seasons. Right now, we don't even know if we have a QB that can get him the ball, and we just spent a ton of money on that side of the ball, at the receiver and tight end positions. I think that money is better spent elsewhere.
I don't know @Deathofthebambino.

First of all, a 28 year old Julio Jones doesn't become available for anything but a franchise-altering king's ransom. Also, the average salary of a WR has trended so far up that 40m over 3 seasons (especially with the relatively affordable dead cap of $7.75m in the last year, 2023) makes this a no-brainer for me:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/wide-receiver/

On the top of the list, who would be available at a 2nd rounder or a 3rd plus a player? Would you rather have Jones or Beckham? Cooper Kupp?

I am all in on the Jones train until the Titans or some unexpected team (Chargers???) swoop in.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't know @Deathofthebambino.

First of all, a 28 year old Julio Jones doesn't become available for anything but a franchise-altering king's ransom. Also, the average salary of a WR has trended so far up that 40m over 3 seasons (especially with the relatively affordable dead cap of $7.75m in the last year, 2023) makes this a no-brainer for me:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/wide-receiver/

On the top of the list, who would be available at a 2nd rounder or a 3rd plus a player? Would you rather have Jones or Beckham? Cooper Kupp?

I am all in on the Jones train until the Titans or some unexpected team (Chargers???) swoop in.
Same here. Sign me the F up for Julio Jones for a 2nd/Harry type deal. Cam is still trash but Mac may not be. Julio’s presence on the field will take defenders away from our TEs, keep safeties away from the line of scrimmage, and it would just be fun. It’d be like the AB excitement minus the ahole.
 

OnTheBlack

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Did you guys read my post? I actually talked about those guys. All of them.

In case I wasn't clear, that isn't part of the thesis, it literally is the thesis.

Receivers that play in domes or in warm weather seem to play a lot better in their mid 30's than guys that find themselves playing in shit weather at that age. Stefon Diggs is 27. He'd be a stud anywhere right now. Adams is 28. Same thing.

If the discussion was about getting a 28 year old Julio Jones, there is no discussion. You get him, for almost any cost. But he's going to make about 40mil over the course of his age 32,33 and 34 seasons. Right now, we don't even know if we have a QB that can get him the ball, and we just spent a ton of money on that side of the ball, at the receiver and tight end positions. I think that money is better spent elsewhere.

Yes, Andre Reed, Randy Moss, Brandon Marshall, Jordy Nelson, Plaxico Burress, Amani Toomer, Pierre Garcon, Eric Moulds, Alshon Jeffery, etc. were all good/great receivers playing in bad weather environments, until they turned about 32 years old, which is exactly the point I'm making. Terrell Owens was a great receiver, but when he turned 32, he moved to a dome in Dallas. I'm sure someone can find an exception to the rule, and show me a receiver that played in the type of weather we have here in New England late in the season (and more importantly, in the playoffs) after age 32, but they will be the exception to the rule. Whereas, there are literally a couple dozen guys like Harrison, Holt, Rice, TO, Wayne, etc. that played well into their mid 30's, but did it where it is much easier to play in that weather.

In the snow bowl in 2001, who is more valuable to winning that game? Someone like Jermaine Wiggins or guys with agility and lower centers of gravity, that can move around on the snow like Patten and Troy Brown, or a 6'3" guy who plays on the outside? Do folks think BB hasn't recognized this through the years, or does everyone think its a coincidence that this team has relied on tight ends, running backs and small slot-type receivers for the better part of 20 years, with the exception of the Moss years.
Did you read my post? Your hypothesis is that older receivers perform worse in cold weather than they would elsewhere. Ok interesting hypothesis but pointing to older guys being bad in cold weather doesn’t actually prove anything because A. Older guys are generally worse than younger guys, and b. there is ample evidence that a good receiver is a good receiver in cold weather. So cold weather doesn’t make someone a bad receiver. So what, exactly is the reason an older receiver with talent isn’t good in cold weather? Is it the overwhelming evidence that being old, with its mountains of predictive data, the reason your list of old receivers in the north aren’t good? Or is it some other factor that specifically compounds the decline of productivity of older receivers in cold weather? Because we know there are good receivers in cold weather. So cold weather alone doesn’t make someone bad at catching a football. The fact is your sample size of older receivers who you deem as old and good is just too small of a sample size to prove anything, and directly points to the fact that being old and good is rare, independent of weather. That is the concern, not if Julio Jones for some reason forgets how to run routes or catch a football because he’s playing some of his games in colder weather.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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To be fair, being concerned about a player who played his entire career indoors & in fair weather is pretty reasonable to me.

My current take is that even if you bake all that in (trade assets, salary, age, injury history, weather, etc.) a 2nd rounder + assortment is more than a fair compensation for Jones. I'd even make it a 2nd+Harry if Atlanta accepts it.
 

Mloaf71

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Without facts and date don't dome teams and warm weather teams tend to have have more prolific offenses than teams in the AFC East or NFC North? May just be team priorities and absolutely nothing to do temperature, weather, players, etc...

I want Julio!
 

RetractableRoof

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I think unless the Pats think he is the piece that puts them in realistic SB contention (for how they want to operate offensively) the money is better spent elsewhere.

WRT to performance/aging of high end WR in cold weather climates, doesn't it make sense that any skill position athlete would find a cold weather environment harder on the body? I wouldn't say cold weather is the graveyard for elite receivers, but if the claim is it shortens careers by some margin of games I could see it (without being able to prove it). I can't imagine there is anyone here that doesn't understand the difference in laying out for a ball and impacting the ground versus the frozen ground. Harder to get/stay loose in cold temperatures. Running on grass/spongy turf versus ice hardened ground. Get a small ding (happens in any stadium), and land on it on frozen ground week after week. I can't see arguing it's not harder on the body than a warm weather locale, and adding "harder on the body" to the aging process of a professional athlete that relies on physical advantages for success seems like a recipe to accelerate decline.

Suppose playing for a team predominately in a cold weather climate on average reduces the career of a top 10 (age 30+) receiver by 4 games over the remainder of his career - does that change the calculus of his value for trade/FA signing purposes? 6 games? 8 games? Does it change things to know that BB likes to condition his players to the elements during practice? I guess the counterpoint is whether Julio Jones' game is dependent on his speed/health as much as the next great receiver. If you want to define his success as a function of superior route running, or his ability to bring the ball down in a crowd, or of using seams or his ability to adapt because he is in sync with the QB, then I'd be willing to agree that cold weather impact my be minimal to his aging/decline process.

Fun stuff to think about, especially given BB traded a 2nd for Sanu to get Brady a weapon. The same price for Julio Jones potentially? It's funny though, for how they play the Pat's already have reasonably functional WR sports cars, it would be like buying a Lamborghini and still not having anyone in the house with a valid driver's license. [Cam's license is expired, he isn't capable of getting enough value out of Julio Jones, Jones just got his learners permit.] I don't think the market is going to be as hot for him given he has constraints of going to a winner and the timing of his availability after the FA period and teams still having to sign their draft picks. Does he have enough leverage to create a Taylor Hall situation where he essentially is dictating the team he lands on? It's going to be interesting to see it play out - even if he ends up staying in ATL.
 

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I’m not jumping into this fight, but the statistician in me speculates that there’s a ton of omitted variable bias in the data set. For example - and this is just one possibility - a lot of those cold weather teams may have had old school GMs who think they need to rebuild the ‘85 bears as a blueprint, so they invest more draft and FA resources into the defense, and settle for a game manager QB, figure to ground and pound their way to 21-17 victories. Well, you’re not gonna see a ton of 2001 Tory Holt seasons on those teams, so is it the chicken or the egg?

That’s not to say I think DOTB’s concerns are unfounded. I just think they’re one small piece of the puzzle, with age and QB play the bigger question marks in my mind.

As for Jacksonville vs NE for Jones, I think if Jones really thinks it’ll be fun to play with Cam and Cam is still a starting QB in the NFL, sure, he’dprefer NE. But we all saw that there’s no guarantee Cam is still an NFL starter; if it’s a decision between playing with Lawrence inJax or Mac in NE, I would assume that any WR would take Lawrence in a landslide. MIGHT get tipped back in favor of NE just because the rest of the NE roster is so much more talented than JAX, but if I’m a WR just picking a QB to play with, it’s Lawrence.

Anyway, I would love to see Julio in a Pats uni. He’s still a bad, bad man. That catch on the sidelines in the super bowl still defies belief.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Beyond his production, his presence, making opposing defenses plan differently, his ability to elevate the entire offense and what he offers off the field as far as help with training and preparation, Julio would also give the offense something else that would be extremely beneficial. No excuses. Evaluating QB play with legitimate weapons at every skill position and a top tier offensive line would make the staffs decision a lot easier. Whether it’s Cam or Mac (who I’m trying not to refer to as Nega-Cam, reverse Cam or inverted Cam) whoever is leading this offense would be in an enviable position.